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Is Inflation Just Around the Corner? The Phillips Curve and Global Inflationary Pressures

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  • Olivier Coibion
  • Yuriy Gorodnichenko
  • Mauricio Ulate

Abstract

Tightening labor markets in the United States and other advanced economies suggest inflation should be on the rise, yet it remains subdued. Is the Phillips curve broken? We bring together surveys of household or firm expectations for 18 countries to estimate an expectations-augmented Phillips curve. We find strong evidence of a Phillips curve relationship: the Phillips curve is alive and well. The fact that inflation remains well below inflation expectations, both in the United States and abroad, suggests that there remains significant slack in labor markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Mauricio Ulate, 2019. "Is Inflation Just Around the Corner? The Phillips Curve and Global Inflationary Pressures," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 109, pages 465-469, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:apandp:v:109:y:2019:p:465-69
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/pandp.20191055
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Rupal Kamdar, 2018. "The Formation of Expectations, Inflation, and the Phillips Curve," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1447-1491, December.
    2. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
    3. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2015. "Is the Phillips Curve Alive and Well after All? Inflation Expectations and the Missing Disinflation," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 197-232, January.
    4. Stéphanie Guichard & Elena Rusticelli, 2011. "Reassessing the NAIRUs after the Crisis," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 918, OECD Publishing.
    5. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Mauricio Ulate, 2018. "The Cyclical Sensitivity in Estimates of Potential Output," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 49(2 (Fall)), pages 343-441.
    6. Binder, Carola Conces, 2015. "Whose expectations augment the Phillips curve?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 35-38.
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    1. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/1fsnu13sl59jsautsd9gpjrj59 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Bańbura, Marta & Bobeica, Elena, 2023. "Does the Phillips curve help to forecast euro area inflation?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 364-390.
    3. Combes, Jean-Louis & Lesuisse, Pierre, 2022. "Inflation and unemployment, new insights during the EMU accession," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 124-142.
    4. Corsello, Francesco & Neri, Stefano & Tagliabracci, Alex, 2021. "Anchored or de-anchored? That is the question," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    5. Domenico Depalo & Salvatore Lo Bello, 2024. "Accounting for the recent inflation burst in the euro area," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 871, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    6. Álvarez, Luis J. & Correa-López, Mónica, 2020. "Inflation expectations in euro area Phillips curves," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    7. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Mauricio Ulate, 2018. "The Cyclical Sensitivity in Estimates of Potential Output," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 49(2 (Fall)), pages 343-441.
    8. Sebastian Heise & Fatih Karahan & Ayşegül Şahin, 2022. "The Missing Inflation Puzzle: The Role of the Wage‐Price Pass‐Through," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(S1), pages 7-51, February.
    9. Fabian Eser & Peter Karadi & Philip R. Lane & Laura Moretti & Chiara Osbat, 2020. "The Phillips Curve at the ECB," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 88(S1), pages 50-85, September.
    10. Yiqun Gloria Chen, 2019. "Inflation, Inflation Expectations, and the Phillips Curve: Working Paper 2019-07," Working Papers 55501, Congressional Budget Office.
    11. Artem Vdovychenko, 2022. "Estimating the natural rate of unemployment for Ukraine," IHEID Working Papers 21-2022, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    12. Gabriel, Ricardo Duque, 2023. "Monetary policy and the wage inflation-unemployment tradeoff," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    13. Joseph Kopecky, 2021. "Okay Boomer... Excess Money Growth, Inflation, and Population Aging," Trinity Economics Papers tep0721, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2021.
    14. Christophe Blot & Jérôme Creel & Paul Hubert, 2019. "Thoughts on a review of the ECB's monetary policy strategy," Working Papers hal-03403251, HAL.
    15. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/1fsnu13sl59jsautsd9gpjrj59 is not listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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