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Citations for "Empirical exchange rate models of the nineties: Are any fit to survive?"

by Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie D. & Pascual, Antonio Garcia

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  1. Eva Gutierrez, 2007. "Export Performance and External Competitiveness in the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, vol. 5(2), pages 203-224.
  2. R. Scott Hacker & Hyunjoo Kim Karlsson & Kristofer Månsson, 2012. "The Relationship between Exchange Rates and Interest Rate Differentials: A Wavelet Approach," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(9), pages 1162-1185, 09.
  3. Pablo Pincheira, 2006. "Conditional Evaluation of Exchange Rate Predictive Ability in Long Run Regressions," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 378, Central Bank of Chile.
  4. Lukas Menkhoff & Mark P. Taylor, 2007. "The Obstinate Passion of Foreign Exchange Professionals: Technical Analysis," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 45(4), pages 936-972, December.
  5. Nedeljkovic, Milan, 2008. "Testing for Smooth Transition Nonlinearity in Adjustments of Cointegrating Systems," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 876, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  6. Kenneth D. West, 2004. "Monetary Policy and the Volatility of Real Exchange Rates in New Zealand," NBER Working Papers 10280, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Jian Wang & Jason J. Wu, 2012. "The Taylor Rule and Forecast Intervals for Exchange Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(1), pages 103-144, 02.
  8. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Hélène Rey, 2005. "International Financial Adjustment," International Finance 0505004, EconWPA.
  9. Gregory H. Bauer & Antonio Diez de los Rios, 2012. "An International Dynamic Term Structure Model with Economic Restrictions and Unspanned Risks," Staff Working Papers 12-5, Bank of Canada.
  10. Stephan Schulmeister, 2008. "Aggregate Trading Behaviour of Technical Models and the Yen-Dollar Exchange Rate 1976-2007," WIFO Working Papers 324, WIFO.
  11. Stéphane Goutte & Benteng Zou, 2012. "Continuous time regime switching model applied to foreign exchange rate," Working Papers hal-00643900, HAL.
  12. Stavárek Daniel & Miglietti Cynthia, 2015. "Effective Exchange Rates in Central and Eastern European Countries: Cyclicality and Relationship with Macroeconomic Fundamentals," Review of Economic Perspectives, De Gruyter Open, vol. 15(2), pages 157-177, June.
  13. Byrne, Joseph P. & Korobilis, Dimitris & Ribeiro, Pinho J., 2016. "Exchange rate predictability in a changing world," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 1-24.
  14. Engel, Charles & West, Kenneth D., 2003. "Exchange rates and fundamentals," Working Paper Series 0248, European Central Bank.
  15. William A. Barnett & Chang Ho Kwag, 2011. "Exchange Rate Determination from Monetary Fundamentals: An Aggregation Theoretic Approach," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Financial Aggregation And Index Number Theory, chapter 5, pages 151-166 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
  16. Dominguez, Kathryn M.E. & Panthaki, Freyan, 2006. "What defines `news' in foreign exchange markets?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 168-198, February.
  17. Juan José Echavarría & Mauricio Villamizar, 2012. "Great expectations? Evidence from Colombia´s exchange rate survey," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 009999, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  18. Joseph P. Byrne & Dimitris Korobilis & Pinho J. Ribeiro, 2014. "On the Sources of Uncertainty in Exchange Rate Predictability," Working Papers 2014_16, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
  19. Leonardo Morales-Arias & Alexander Dross, 2010. "Adaptive Forecasting of Exchange Rates with Panel Data," Research Paper Series 285, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
  20. Roch, Oriol, 2013. "Histogram-based prediction of directional price relatives," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 110-115.
  21. Ca' Zorzi, Michele & Kocięcki, Andrzej & Rubaszek, Michał, 2015. "Bayesian forecasting of real exchange rates with a Dornbusch prior," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 53-60.
  22. Abbate, Angela & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2016. "Point, interval and density forecasts of exchange rates with time-varying parameter models," Discussion Papers 19/2016, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  23. Farooquee, Arsalan Ali & Shrimali, Gireesh, 2016. "Making renewable energy competitive in India: Reducing financing costs via a government-sponsored hedging facility," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 518-528.
  24. Galimberti, Jaqueson K. & Moura, Marcelo L., 2010. "Taylor Rules and Exchange Rate Predictability in Emerging Economies," Insper Working Papers wpe_214, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
  25. Menzies, Gordon D. & Zizzo, Daniel John, 2012. "Monetary policy and inferential expectations of exchange rates," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 359-380.
  26. Menzie D. Chinn & Olivier Coibion, 2014. "The Predictive Content of Commodity Futures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(7), pages 607-636, 07.
  27. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric Van Wincoop, 2004. "A Scapegoat Model of Exchange-Rate Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 114-118, May.
  28. Jeremy Graveline & Irina Zviadadze & Mikhail Chernov, 2012. "Crash Risk in Currency Returns," 2012 Meeting Papers 753, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  29. Piersanti, Fabio Massimo & Rizzati, Massimiliano & Nakmai, Siwat, 2016. "Foreign exchange rates with the Taylor rule and VECMs," MPRA Paper 68888, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 30 Mar 2016.
  30. Milan Nedeljkovic & Branko Urosevic, 2011. "Determinants of the Dinar-Euro Nominal Exchange Rate," Working papers 18, National Bank of Serbia.
  31. Leung, Charles Ka Yui & Tang, Edward Chi Ho, 2013. "Speculating China economic growth through Hong Kong? Evidence from the stock market IPO and real estate markets," MPRA Paper 46346, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  32. Sam Nasypbek & Scheherazade S Rehman, 2011. "Explaining the returns of active currency managers," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Portfolio and risk management for central banks and sovereign wealth funds, volume 58, pages 211-256 Bank for International Settlements.
  33. Ferraro, Domenico & Rogoff, Kenneth & Rossi, Barbara, 2011. "Can Oil Prices Forecast Exchange Rates?," CEPR Discussion Papers 8635, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  34. Taylor, Mark P. & Schmidt, Markus & Reitz, Stefan, 2007. "End-user order flow and exchange rate dynamics," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,05, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  35. Stelios Bekiros, 2011. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Co-Movement, Long-Run Relationships and Short-run Dynamics," Economics Working Papers ECO2011/21, European University Institute.
  36. Christoffersen, Peter F. & Diebold, Francis X., 2003. "Financial asset returns, direction-of-change forecasting, and volatility dynamics," CFS Working Paper Series 2004/08, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  37. Lewis Vivien & Markiewicz Agnieszka, 2009. "Model Misspecification, Learning and the Exchange Rate Disconnect Puzzle," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-24, April.
  38. Adrien Verdelhan, 2012. "The Share of Systematic Variation in Bilateral Exchange Rates," 2012 Meeting Papers 763, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  39. Jacob Gyntelberg & Mico Loretan & Tientip Subhanij & Eric Chan, 2010. "Private information, stock markets, and exchange rates," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The international financial crisis and policy challenges in Asia and the Pacific, volume 52, pages 186-210 Bank for International Settlements.
  40. Menzie D. Chinn & Michael J. Moore, 2008. "Private Information and a Macro Model of Exchange Rates: Evidence from a Novel Data Set," NBER Working Papers 14175, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  41. Evans, Kevin P. & Speight, Alan E.H., 2010. "Dynamic news effects in high frequency Euro exchange rates," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 238-258, July.
  42. Park, Cheolbeom & Park, Sookyung, 2013. "Exchange rate predictability and a monetary model with time-varying cointegration coefficients," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 394-410.
  43. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/53r60a8s3kup1vc9kd52ge69h is not listed on IDEAS
  44. Peter H. Sullivan, 2013. "Finding a Connection Between Exchange Rates and Fundamentals, How Should We Model Revisions to Forecasting Strategies?," 2013 Papers psu387, Job Market Papers.
  45. Lillie Lam & Laurence Fung & Ip-wing Yu, 2008. "Comparing Forecast Performance of Exchange Rate Models," Working Papers 0808, Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
  46. Junttila, Juha & Korhonen, Marko, 2011. "Nonlinearity and time-variation in the monetary model of exchange rates," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 288-302, June.
  47. Yin-wong Cheung & Ulf G. Erlandsson, 2005. "Exchange Rates and Markov Switching Dynamics," Working Papers 052005, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  48. Charles Engel & Nelson C. Mark & Kenneth D. West, 2012. "Factor Model Forecasts of Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 18382, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  49. Syllignakis, Manolis N. & Kouretas, Georgios P., 2011. "Markov-switching regimes and the monetary model of exchange rate determination: Evidence from the Central and Eastern European markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 707-723.
  50. Stephanie E. Curcuru & Charles P. Thomas & Francis E. Warnock & Jon Wongswan, 2014. "Uncovered Equity Parity and Rebalancing in International Portfolios," NBER Working Papers 19963, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  51. Ca'Zorzi, Michele & Muck, Jakub & Rubaszek, Michal, 2015. "Real exchange rate forecasting and ppp: this time the random walk loses," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 229, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  52. Jose Luiz Rossi Jr & Wilson Felíci, 2014. "Common Factors And The Exchange Rate: Results From The Brazilian Case," Anais do XLI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 41th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 125, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
  53. Ding, Liang & Ma, Jun, 2013. "Portfolio reallocation and exchange rate dynamics," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 3100-3124.
  54. Chunming Yuan, 2008. "The Exchange Rate and Macroeconomic Determinants: Time-Varying Transitional Dynamics," UMBC Economics Department Working Papers 09-114, UMBC Department of Economics, revised 01 Nov 2009.
  55. Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2011. "Performance Evaluation of Zero Net-Investment Strategies," NBER Working Papers 17150, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  56. Müller-Plantenberg, Nikolas, 2012. "Balance of payments flows and exchange rate prediction in Japan," Working Papers in Economic Theory 2012/09, Universidad Autónoma de Madrid (Spain), Department of Economic Analysis (Economic Theory and Economic History).
  57. Mehl, Arnaud & Cappiello, Lorenzo, 2007. "Uncovered interest parity at distant horizons: evidence on emerging economies & nonlinearities," Working Paper Series 0801, European Central Bank.
  58. repec:zbw:rwirep:0134 is not listed on IDEAS
  59. Yin-Wong Cheung & Guonan Ma & Robert N. McCauley, 2009. "Renminbisation des actifs internationaux de la Chine," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 95(2), pages 135-155.
  60. Joscha Beckmann & Ansgar Belke & Michael Kühl, 2011. "Cointegration, structural breaks and monetary fundamentals of the Dollar/Yen Exchange," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 17(4), pages 397-412, November.
  61. Marcos dal Bianco & Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2012. "Short-run forecasting of the euro-dollar exchange rate with economic fundamentals," Working Papers 1203, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
  62. Charles Engel & Nelson C. Mark & Kenneth D. West, 2007. "Exchange Rate Models Are Not as Bad as You Think," NBER Working Papers 13318, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  63. Gokcen Ogruk, 2014. "Is Implied Taylor Rule Interest Rate Applicable as a Carry Trade Strategy?," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 4(4), pages 909-919.
  64. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Antonio Garcia Pascual, 2002. "Empirical Exchange Rate Models of the Nineties: Are Any Fit to Survive?," NBER Working Papers 9393, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  65. Carlos Felipe Lopez Suarez & Jose Antonio Rodriguez Lopez, 2008. "Nonlinear Exchange Rate Predictability," Working Papers 080911, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics, revised Sep 2010.
  66. Prasad S Bhattacharya & Dimitrios D Thomakos, 2011. "Improving forecasting performance by window and model averaging," CAMA Working Papers 2011-05, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  67. Michael Binder & Christian J. Offermanns, 2007. "International Investment Positions and Exchange Rate Dynamics: A Dynamic Panel Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 2095, CESifo Group Munich.
  68. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2005. "Incomplete Information Processing: A Solution to the Forward Discount Puzzle," Working Papers 05.03, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
  69. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Eiji Fujii, 2009. "The Illusion of Precision and the Role of the Renminbi in Regional Integration," Chapters, in: Towards Monetary and Financial Integration in East Asia, chapter 13 Edward Elgar Publishing.
  70. Simone Cuiabano & Jose Divino, 2010. "Exchange Rate Determination: An Application of a Monetary Model for Brazil," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 16(4), pages 345-357, November.
  71. Eric van Wincoop & Philippe Bacchetta, 2003. "Can Information Heterogeneity Explain the Exchange Rate Determination Puzzle?," NBER Working Papers 9498, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  72. Menzie D. Chinn & Ron Alquist, 2006. "Conventional and Unconventional Approaches to Exchange Rate Modeling and Assessment," NBER Working Papers 12481, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  73. Rime, Dagfinn & Sarno, Lucio & Sojli, Elvira, 2009. "Exchange Rate Forecasting, Order Flow and Macroeconomic Information," CEPR Discussion Papers 7225, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  74. Zsolt DARVAS & Zoltán SCHEPP, . "Forecasting Exchange Rates of Major Currencies with Long Maturity Forward Rates," EcoMod2008 23800026, EcoMod.
  75. Balke, Nathan S. & Ma, Jun & Wohar, Mark E., 2013. "The contribution of economic fundamentals to movements in exchange rates," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 1-16.
  76. Melvin, Michael & Prins, John & Shand, Duncan, 2013. "Forecasting Exchange Rates: an Investor Perspective," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier.
  77. Lansing, Kevin J. & Ma, Jun, 2014. "Explaining exchange rate anomalies in a model with Taylor-rule fundamentals and consistent expectations," Working Paper Series 2014-22, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  78. Charles Engel & Kenneth D. West, 2004. "Accounting for Exchange-Rate Variability in Present-Value Models When the Discount Factor Is Near 1," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 119-125, May.
  79. Leung, Charles Ka Yui & Chow, Kenneth & Yiu, Matthew & Tam, Dickson, 2010. "House Market in Chinese Cities: Dynamic Modeling, In-Sampling Fitting and Out-of-Sample Forecasting," MPRA Paper 27367, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  80. Zhang, Hui Jun & Dufour, Jean-Marie & Galbraith, John W., 2016. "Exchange rates and commodity prices: Measuring causality at multiple horizons," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 100-120.
  81. Jaewoo Lee & H. Takizawa & David Hauner, 2011. "In Which Exchange Rate Models Do Forecasters Trust?," IMF Working Papers 11/116, International Monetary Fund.
  82. de Zwart, Gerben & Markwat, Thijs & Swinkels, Laurens & van Dijk, Dick, 2009. "The economic value of fundamental and technical information in emerging currency markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 581-604, June.
  83. Angela He & Alan Wan, 2009. "Predicting daily highs and lows of exchange rates: a cointegration analysis," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(11), pages 1191-1204.
  84. Lars P. Feld & Ekkehard A. Köhler, 2015. "Is Switzerland an Interest Rate Island after all? Time Series and Non-Linear Switching Regime Evidence," CESifo Working Paper Series 5628, CESifo Group Munich.
  85. Jonida Bollano & Delina Ibrahimaj, 2015. "Current Account Determinats in Central Eastern European Countries," IHEID Working Papers 22-2015, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
  86. Morales-Arias, Leonardo & Moura, Guilherme V., 2013. "Adaptive forecasting of exchange rates with panel data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 493-509.
  87. Ronald MacDonald & Lukas Menkhoff & Rafael R. Rebitzky, 2009. "Exchange Rate Forecasters' Performance: Evidence of Skill?," CESifo Working Paper Series 2615, CESifo Group Munich.
  88. Fratzscher, Marcel, 2009. "How successful is the G7 in managing exchange rates?," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 24, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  89. Michael Froemmel & Ronald Macdonald & Lukas Menkhoff, 2004. "Markov Switching Regimes In A Monetary Exchange Rate Model," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2004 119, Royal Economic Society.
  90. Marcelo Moura, 2010. "Testing the Taylor Model Predictability for Exchange Rates in Latin America," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 547-564, September.
  91. Emanuel Kohlscheen & Fernando Avalos & Andreas Schrimpf, 2016. "When the walk is not random: commodity prices and exchange rates," BIS Working Papers 551, Bank for International Settlements.
  92. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2010. "Reality checks and nested forecast model comparisons," Working Papers 2010-032, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  93. Lukas Menkhoff & Rafael R. Rebitzky & Michael Schröder, 2008. "Heterogeneity in Exchange Rate Expectations: Evidence on the Chartist-Fundamentalist Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series 2502, CESifo Group Munich.
  94. Charles Engel & Kenneth D. West, 2004. "Accounting for Exchange Rate Variability in Present-Value Models When the Discount Factor is Near One," NBER Working Papers 10267, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  95. Barbara Rossi & Atsushi Inoue, 2012. "Out-of-Sample Forecast Tests Robust to the Choice of Window Size," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 432-453, April.
  96. Rossi, José Luiz Júnior, 2013. "Liquidity and Exchange Rates," Insper Working Papers wpe_325, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
  97. Agnieszka Markiewicz & Andreas Pick, 2014. "Adaptive learning and survey data," DNB Working Papers 411, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  98. Clark, Todd E. & West, Kenneth D., 2006. "Using out-of-sample mean squared prediction errors to test the martingale difference hypothesis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 155-186.
  99. Cerra, Valerie & Saxena, Sweta Chaman, 2010. "The monetary model strikes back: Evidence from the world," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 184-196, July.
  100. Stéphane GOUTTE & Benteng Zou, 2011. "Foreign exchange rates under Markov Regime switching model," CREA Discussion Paper Series 11-16, Center for Research in Economic Analysis, University of Luxembourg.
  101. Manzan, S. & Westerhoff, F., 2002. "Heterogeneous Expectations, Exchange Rate Dynamics and Predictability," CeNDEF Working Papers 02-14, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
  102. Abdalrahman AbuDalu & Elsadig Musa Ahmed, 2013. "The long and short run forcing variables of purchasing power parity of ASEAN-5," E3 Journal of Business Management and Economics., E3 Journals, vol. 4(3), pages 066-081.
  103. Melecky, Martin, 2007. "A structural investigation of third-currency shocks to bilateral exchange rates," MPRA Paper 7402, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  104. Dimitris Christopoulos & Miguel A. León-Ledesma, 2009. "On causal Relationships Between Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Better Than You Think," Studies in Economics 0909, School of Economics, University of Kent.
  105. Joscha Beckmann & Ansgar Belke & Michael Kühl, 2009. "How Stable Are Monetary Models of the Dollar-Euro Exchange Rate?: A Time-Varying Coefficient Approach," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 944, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  106. Guy M Meredith, 2003. "Medium-Term Exchange Rate Forecasting; What Can We Expect?," IMF Working Papers 03/21, International Monetary Fund.
  107. Christopher J. Neely & Lucio Sarno, 2002. "How well do monetary fundamentals forecast exchange rates?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 51-74.
  108. Rossi, Barbara, 2013. "Exchange Rate Predictability," CEPR Discussion Papers 9575, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  109. Mahir Binici & Yin-Wong Cheung, 2011. "Exchange Rate Dynamics Under Alternative Optimal Interest Rate Rules," Working Papers 362011, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  110. Antoine Bouveret & Henri Sterdyniak, 2005. "Les modèles de taux de change. Équilibre de long terme, dynamique et hystérèse," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 93(2), pages 243-286.
  111. Venus Khim-Sen Liew & Terence Tai-Leung Chong & Kian-Ping Lim, 2003. "The inadequacy of linear autoregressive model for real exchange rates: empirical evidence from Asian economies," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(12), pages 1387-1392.
  112. Jacob Gyntelberg & Mico Loretan & Tientip Subhanij, 2015. "Private information, capital flows, and exchange rates," Working Papers 2015-12, Swiss National Bank.
  113. M. Salto & T. Pietra, 2013. "Welfare and excess volatility of exchange rates," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 52(2), pages 501-529, March.
  114. Pippenger, John, 2008. "Freely Floating Exchange Rates Do Not Systematically Overshoot," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt97m8z6hw, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
  115. Christian D. Dick & Ronald MacDonald & Lukas Menkhoff, 2014. "Exchange Rate Forecasts and Expected Fundamentals," Kiel Working Papers 1974, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  116. Gyntelberg, Jacob & Loretan, Mico & Subhanij, Tientip & Chan, Eric, 2014. "Exchange rate fluctuations and international portfolio rebalancing," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 34-44.
  117. Simón Sosvilla-Rivero & Emma García, . "Forecasting the Dollar/Euro Exchange Rate: Can International Parities Help?," Working Papers 2003-15, FEDEA.
  118. Harm Bandholz & Jorg Clostermann & Franz Seitz, 2009. "Explaining the US bond yield conundrum," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(7), pages 539-550.
  119. Yin-Wong Cheung, 2012. "Exchange Rate Misalignment - The Case of the Chinese Renminbi," CESifo Working Paper Series 3797, CESifo Group Munich.
  120. Carlo Altavilla & Paul De Grauwe, 2005. "Non-Linearities in the Relation between the Exchange Rate and its Fundamentals," CESifo Working Paper Series 1561, CESifo Group Munich.
  121. Akiko Terada-hagiwara, 2005. "Explaining the Real Exchange Rate during Sudden Stops and Tranquil Periods," International Finance 0504006, EconWPA.
  122. Alan Kirman, 2006. "Heterogeneity in Economics," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 1(1), pages 89-117, May.
  123. Jonathan Hambur & Lynne Cockerell & Christopher Potter & Penelope Smith & Michelle Wright, 2015. "Modelling the Australian Dollar," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2015-12, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  124. Nelson Mark & Kimberly Berg, 2013. "Third-Country Effects on the Exchange Rate," 2013 Meeting Papers 1050, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  125. Christian D. Dick & Lukas Menkhoff, 2013. "Exchange Rate Expectations of Chartists and Fundamentalists," CESifo Working Paper Series 4181, CESifo Group Munich.
  126. Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Lionel Fontagné & Horst Raff, 2009. "Exchange-Rate Misalignments in Duopoly: the Case of Airbus and Boeing," Working Papers 2009-10, CEPII research center.
  127. Yuan, Chunming, 2011. "Forecasting exchange rates: The multi-state Markov-switching model with smoothing," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 342-362, April.
  128. Nelson C. Mark, 2005. "Changing Monetary Policy Rules, Learning, and Real Exchange Rate Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 11061, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  129. Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2009. "The Carry Trade and Fundamentals: Nothing to Fear But FEER Itself," NBER Working Papers 15518, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  130. Juan Pedro Jensen Perdomo & Fernando Balbino Botelho, 2007. "Messe-Rogoff Revisitados: Uma Análise Empírica Das Projeções Para A Taxa De Câmbio No Brasil," Anais do XXXV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 35th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 038, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
  131. Michael Melvin & John Prins & Duncan Shand, 2013. "Forecasting Exchange Rates: An Investor Perspective," CESifo Working Paper Series 4238, CESifo Group Munich.
  132. Mario Cerrato & Nicholas Sarantis & Alex Saunders, 2009. "An investigation of customer order flow in the foreign exchange market," Working Papers 2009_25, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow, revised Feb 2010.
  133. Binder, Michael & Offermanns, Christian J., 2007. "International investment positions and exchange rate dynamics: A dynamic panel analysis," CFS Working Paper Series 2007/23, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  134. Kenneth S. Rogoff & Vania Stavrakeva, 2008. "The Continuing Puzzle of Short Horizon Exchange Rate Forecasting," NBER Working Papers 14071, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  135. Yuxuan Huang, 2016. "Forecasting the USD/CNY Exchange Rate under Different Policy Regimes," Working Papers 2016-001, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, Research Program on Forecasting.
  136. Fernando Alvarez & Andrew Atkeson & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2007. "If Exchange Rates are Random Walks, Then Almost Everything We Say About Monetary Policy is Wrong," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(2), pages 339-345, May.
  137. Michalski , Tomasz & Amat , Christophe, 2014. "Fundamentals and Exchange Rate Forecastability with Machine Learning Methods," Les Cahiers de Recherche 1049, HEC Paris.
  138. Engel, Charles, 2014. "Exchange Rates and Interest Parity," Handbook of International Economics, Elsevier.
  139. Joseph E. Gagnon, 2007. "Productive Capacity, Product Varieties, and the Elasticities Approach to the Trade Balance," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(4), pages 639-659, 09.
  140. Todd E. Clark & Kenneth D. West, 2005. "Using Out-of-Sample Mean Squared Prediction Errors to Test the Martingale Difference," NBER Technical Working Papers 0305, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  141. Enzo Weber, 2007. "Economic Integration and the Foreign Exchange," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2007-038, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  142. Stillwagon, Josh R., 2016. "Non-linear exchange rate relationships: An automated model selection approach with indicator saturation," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 84-109.
  143. Yin‐Wong Cheung & Guonan Ma & Robert N. McCauley, 2011. "Renminbising China'S Foreign Assets," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(1), pages 1-17, 02.
  144. Byrne, Joseph P. & Korobilis, Dimitris & Ribeiro, Pinho J., 2014. "On the Sources of Uncertainty in Exchange Rate Predictability," 2007 Annual Meeting, July 29-August 1, 2007, Portland, Oregon TN 2015-24, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  145. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:6:y:2004:i:10:p:1-8 is not listed on IDEAS
  146. Ardic, Oya Pinar & Ergin, Onur & Senol, G. Bahar, 2008. "Exchange Rate Forecasting: Evidence from the Emerging Central and Eastern European Economies," MPRA Paper 7505, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  147. Hsing, Y, 2009. "Functional Forms and PPP: The Case of Canada, the EU, Japan, and the U.K," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 9(1).
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  153. Menkhoff, Lukas & Rebitzky, Rafael R., 2008. "Investor sentiment in the US-dollar: Longer-term, non-linear orientation on PPP," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 455-467, June.
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  155. Jonathan H. Wright, 2003. "Bayesian Model Averaging and exchange rate forecasts," International Finance Discussion Papers 779, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  156. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop & Toni Beutler, 2009. "Can Parameter Instability Explain the Meese-Rogoff Puzzle?," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) 09.08, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP.
  157. Pau Rabanal & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez, 2012. "Can International Macroeconomic Models Explain Low-Frequency Movements of Real Exchange Rates?," IMF Working Papers 12/13, International Monetary Fund.
  158. Frank Westerhoff & Sebastiano Manzan, 2004. "Does liquidity in the FX market depend on volatility?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 6(10), pages 1-8.
  159. Bacchetta, Philippe & van Wincoop, Eric, 2013. "On the unstable relationship between exchange rates and macroeconomic fundamentals," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 18-26.
  160. Martin D. D. Evans & Richard K. Lyons, 2005. "Meese-Rogoff Redux: Micro-Based Exchange-Rate Forecasting," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(2), pages 405-414, May.
  161. Fratzscher, Marcel, 2009. "What explains global exchange rate movements during the financial crisis?," Working Paper Series 1060, European Central Bank.
  162. Corina SAMAN, 2015. "Out-Of-Sample Forecasting Performance Of A Robust Neural Exchange Rate Model Of Ron/Usd," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 93-106, March.
  163. Ponomareva, Natalia & Sheen, Jeffrey & Wang, Ben, 2015. "The Common Factor of Bilateral U.S. Exchange Rates: What is it Related to?," MPRA Paper 68966, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  164. Hsiu-Hsin Ko & Masao Ogaki, 2013. "Granger Causality from Exchange Rates to Fundamentals: What Does the Bootstrap Test Show Us?," RCER Working Papers 577, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  165. Apergis, Nicholas, 2014. "Can gold prices forecast the Australian dollar movements?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 75-82.
  166. Daniel MITCHELL RESTREPO, 2006. "Forecasting the Colombian Exchange Rate: Capital Adjustments and Politics vs. Traditional IRP, Trade Adjustments and Random Walk Frameworks," ARCHIVOS DE ECONOMÍA 011228, DEPARTAMENTO NACIONAL DE PLANEACIÓN.
  167. Pasricha, Gurnain, 2008. "Financial Integration in Emerging Market Economies," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt7z35t1cn, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
  168. Nucera, Federico & Valente, Giorgio, 2013. "Carry trades and the performance of currency hedge funds," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 407-425.
  169. Francis Vitek, 2007. "An Evaluation of the Exchange Rate Forecasting Performance of the New Keynesian Model," The IUP Journal of Financial Economics, IUP Publications, vol. 0(4), pages 31-56, December.
  170. Jian Wang, 2005. "Can Long Horizon Data Beat Random Walk Under Engel-West Explanation?," International Finance 0501002, EconWPA.
  171. Pablo Pincheira, 2006. "Shrinkage Based Tests of the Martingale Difference Hypothesis," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 376, Central Bank of Chile.
  172. Mikael Bask & Jarko Fidrmuc, 2009. "Fundamentals and Technical Trading: Behavior of Exchange Rates in the CEECs," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 20(5), pages 589-605, November.
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  175. Dios Palomares, Rafaela & Martínez Paz, José Miguel & Martínezcarrasco Pleite, Federico, 2006. "Including environmental variables in the effi ciency analysis: A three-step method/El análisis de efi ciencia con variables de entorno: un método de programas con tres etapas," Estudios de Economía Aplicada, Estudios de Economía Aplicada, vol. 24, pages 477-497, Abril.
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  179. Jesus Crespo Cuaresma & Mauro Costantini & Jaroslava Hlouskova, 2014. "Can Macroeconomists Get Rich Forecasting Exchange Rates?," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp176, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
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  183. Habib, Maurizio M. & Stracca, Livio, 2012. "Getting beyond carry trade: What makes a safe haven currency?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 50-64.
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  185. Ahmed, Shamim & Liu, Xiaoquan & Valente, Giorgio, 2016. "Can currency-based risk factors help forecast exchange rates?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 75-97.
  186. Paul De Grauwe & Agnieszka Markiewicz, 2006. "Learning to Forecast the Exchange Rate: Two Competing Approaches," CESifo Working Paper Series 1717, CESifo Group Munich.
  187. Bussière, Matthieu & Ca' Zorzi, Michele & Chudik, Alexander & Dieppe, Alistair, 2010. "Methodological advances in the assessment of equilibrium exchange rates," Working Paper Series 1151, European Central Bank.
  188. Wu, Thomas, 2012. "Order flow in the South: Anatomy of the Brazilian FX market," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 310-324.
  189. Holtemöller, Oliver, 2003. "Uncovered Interest Rate Parity and Analysis of Monetary Convergence of Potential EMU Accession Countries," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2003,40, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
  190. Jaehun Chung & Yongmiao Hong, 2007. "Model-free evaluation of directional predictability in foreign exchange markets," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(5), pages 855-889.
  191. Nedeljković, Milan & Urošević, Branko, 2012. "Determinants of the Dinar-Euro Nominal Exchange Rate," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 121-141, September.
  192. Cheng, Fuzhi & Orden, David, 2005. "Exchange rate misalignment and its effects on agricultural producer support estimates," MTID discussion papers 81, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
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  194. Eva Gutierrez, 2006. "Export Performance and External Competitiveness in the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia," IMF Working Papers 06/261, International Monetary Fund.
  195. Zsolt Darvas & Zoltán Schepp, 2007. "Kelet-közép európai devizaárfolyamok elõrejelzése határidõs árfolyamok segítségével," Working Papers 2007/3, University of Pécs, Department of Economics and Regional Studies, revised Oct 2007.
  196. Joscha Beckmann & Ansgar Belke & Michael Kühl, 2011. "The dollar-euro exchange rate and macroeconomic fundamentals: a time-varying coefficient approach," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 147(1), pages 11-40, April.
  197. Jeffery D. Amato & Andrew Filardo & Gabriele Galati & Goetz von Peter & Feng Zhu, 2005. "Research on exchange rates and monetary policy: an overview," BIS Working Papers 178, Bank for International Settlements.
  198. Simwaka, Kisu, 2007. "Modeling and Forecasting the Malawi Kwacha-US Dollar Nominal Exchange Rate," MPRA Paper 3327, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  199. Ehrmann, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel, 2005. "Exchange rates and fundamentals: new evidence from real-time data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 317-341, March.
  200. Joseph E. Gagnon, 2003. "Long-run supply effects and the elasticities approach to trade," International Finance Discussion Papers 754, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  201. Adrian Austin & Swarna Dutt, 2015. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: A New Look at the Evidence on Long-Horizon Predictability," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 43(1), pages 147-159, March.
  202. Ferraro, Domenico & Rogoff, Kenneth & Rossi, Barbara, 2015. "Can oil prices forecast exchange rates? An empirical analysis of the relationship between commodity prices and exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 116-141.
  203. El Bouhadi, A. & Elkhider, Abdelkader & Kchirid, El Mustapha & Idriss, El Abbassi, 2008. "LES déterminants du taux de change au Maroc : Une étude empirique
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  204. Waldyr Areosa & Marta Areosa, 2012. "The Signaling Effect of Exchange Rates: pass-through under dispersed information," Working Papers Series 282, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  205. Chen Yu-Chin & Rogoff Kenneth, 2012. "Are The Commodity Currencies An Exception To The Rule?," Global Journal of Economics (GJE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 1(01), pages 1250004-1-1.
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  209. Kempa, Bernd & Riedel, Jana, 2013. "Nonlinearities in exchange rate determination in a small open economy: Some evidence for Canada," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 268-278.
  210. Stavarek, Daniel, 2013. "Cyclical relationship between exchange rates and macro-fundamentals in Central and Eastern Europe," MPRA Paper 45327, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  211. Radhakrishnan, Suresh & Tsang, Albert, 2011. "The valuation-relevance of the foreign translation adjustment: The effect of barriers to entry," The International Journal of Accounting, Elsevier, vol. 46(4), pages 431-458.
  212. Theophilos Papadimitriou & Periklis Gogas & Vasilios Plakandaras, 2013. "Forecasting the NOK/USD Exchange Rate with Machine Learning Techniques," Working Paper Series 59_13, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
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  214. Kodongo, Odongo & Ojah, Kalu, 2012. "The dynamic relation between foreign exchange rates and international portfolio flows: Evidence from Africa's capital markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 71-87.
  215. Shiu-Sheng, Chen, 2012. "Predicting swings in exchange rates with macro fundamentals," MPRA Paper 35772, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  216. Pablo Pincheira, 2013. "A Simple Out-of-Sample Test for the Martingale Difference Hypothesis," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 698, Central Bank of Chile.
  217. Travis Berge & Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2011. "Currency Carry Trades," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 7(1), pages 357 - 388.
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  218. Dong, Wei & Nam, Deokwoo, 2013. "Exchange rates and individual good's price misalignment: Evidence of long-horizon predictability," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 611-636.
  219. Travis J. Berge, 2011. "Forecasting disconnected exchange rates," Research Working Paper RWP 11-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  220. Axel Grossmann & Marc Simpson & Teofilo Ozuna, 2014. "Investigating the PPP hypothesis using constructed U.S. dollar equilibrium exchange rate misalignments over the post-bretton woods period," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 38(2), pages 235-268, April.
  221. Reus, Lorenzo & Mulvey, John M., 2016. "Dynamic allocations for currency futures under switching regimes signals," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 253(1), pages 85-93.
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  224. Emma Garcia & Simón Sosvilla-rivero, 2005. "Forecasting the dollar|euro exchange rate: are international parities useful?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(5), pages 369-377.
  225. Follmer, Hans & Horst, Ulrich & Kirman, Alan, 2005. "Equilibria in financial markets with heterogeneous agents: a probabilistic perspective," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1-2), pages 123-155, February.
  226. Chen, Xiaoshan & MacDonald, Ronald, 2015. "Measuring the dollar–euro permanent equilibrium exchange rate using the unobserved components model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 20-35.
  227. Ryota Nakatani, 2014. "The Effects of Financial and Real Shocks, Structural Vulnerability and Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates from the Perspective of Currency Crises Models," UTokyo Price Project Working Paper Series 043, University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics.
  228. Rossi, José Luiz Júnior, 2014. "The Usefulness of Financial Variables in Predicting Exchange Rate Movements," Insper Working Papers wpe_332, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
  229. Zhang, Zhibai & Bian, Zhicun, 2015. "Absolute purchasing power parity in industrial countries," MPRA Paper 66241, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  230. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Rime, Dagfinn, 2014. "The offshore renminbi exchange rate: Microstructure and links to the onshore market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(PA), pages 170-189.
  231. Anthony Garratt & Kevin Lee, 2006. "Investing Under Model Uncertainty: Decision Based Evaluation of Exchange Rate and Interest Rate Forecasts in the US, UK and Japan," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0616, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
  232. Agnieszka Markiewicz, 2010. "Monetary Policy, Model Uncertainty and Exchange Rate Volatility," CESifo Working Paper Series 2949, CESifo Group Munich.
  233. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2005. "Can Information Heterogeneity Explain the Exchange Rate Determination?," FAME Research Paper Series rp155, International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering.
  234. Jaehun Chung & Yongmiao Hong, 2013. "Model-Free Evaluation of Directional Predictability in Foreign Exchange," WISE Working Papers 2013-10-14, Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics (WISE), Xiamen University.
  235. Marie Briere & Bastien Drut, 2009. "The Revenge of Purchasing Power Parity on Carry Trades during Crises," Working Papers CEB 09-013.RS, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
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  242. Anella Munro, 2005. "UIP, Expectations and the Kiwi," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2005/05, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
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  244. Hsing, Yu, 2009. "Analysis of the Behavior of the New Zealand Dollar Exchange Rate: Comparison of Four Major Models," Review of Applied Economics, Review of Applied Economics, vol. 5(1-2).
  245. Carvalho, Alexandre & Moura, Marcelo L., 2008. "What Can Taylor Rules Say About Monetary Policy in Latin America?," Insper Working Papers wpe_126, Insper Working Paper, Insper Instituto de Ensino e Pesquisa.
  246. Wu, Jyh-Lin & Hu, Yu-Hau, 2009. "New evidence on nominal exchange rate predictability," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 1045-1063, October.
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  254. Jacob Boudoukh & Matthew Richardson & Robert Whitelaw, 2005. "The Information in Long-Maturity Forward Rates: Implications for Exchange Rates and the Forward Premium Anomaly," NBER Working Papers 11840, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  255. Christian, Mueller-Kademann, 2009. "Puzzle solver," MPRA Paper 19852, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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  262. Kirman, Alan & Teyssiere, Gilles, 2005. "Testing for bubbles and change-points," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 765-799, April.
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