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Cyclical relationship between exchange rates and macro-fundamentals in Central and Eastern Europe

  • Stavarek, Daniel

We present empirical evidence on the business cycle relationship between nominal and real effective exchange rate, real GDP, consumption, investment, export, import and general government debt for a group of ten countries from the Central and Eastern Europe. We apply cross-correlation on cyclically filtered and seasonally adjusted quarterly time series over the period 1998-2010. The results are mixed in intensity, direction and cyclicality but show generally weak correlation between exchange rates and fundamentals. Sufficiently high coefficients are found only for government debt and import. We also apply simple regressions to relate the correlation to openness and welfare of the economy. The correlation between exchange rates and macroeconomic aggregates tends to be more pronounced in less open and relatively poorer countries.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/45327/1/MPRA_paper_45323.pdf
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 45327.

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Date of creation: 21 Mar 2013
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:45327
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  1. Hodrick, Robert J & Prescott, Edward C, 1997. "Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(1), pages 1-16, February.
  2. Robert P. Flood & Andrew K. Rose, 1993. "Fixing Exchange Rates: A Virtual Quest for Fundamentals," NBER Working Papers 4503, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie David & Garcia Pascual, Antonio, 2003. "Empirical Exchange Rate Models of the Nineties: Are Any Fit to Survive?," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt12z9x4c5, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
  4. Dedola, Luca & Leduc, Sylvain, 2001. "Why Is the Business-Cycle Behaviour of Fundamentals Alike across Exchange-Rate Regimes?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(4), pages 401-19, October.
  5. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2000. "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause?," Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series qt0sx02651, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  6. De Grauwe, Paul & Grimaldi, Marianna, 2006. "Exchange rate puzzles: A tale of switching attractors," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 1-33, January.
  7. Rand, John & Tarp, Finn, 2001. "Business Cycles in Developing Countries: Are They Different?," MPRA Paper 62445, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Margarida Duarte & Diego Restuccia & Andrea L. Waddle, 2007. "Exchange rates and business cycles across countries," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Win, pages 57-76.
  9. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1982. "Interest rates and currency prices in a two-country world," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 335-359.
  10. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December.
  11. Frenkel, Jacob A, 1976. " A Monetary Approach to the Exchange Rate: Doctrinal Aspects and Empirical Evidence," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 78(2), pages 200-224.
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