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Publications

by members of

Government of the United States → Department of the Treasury

These are publications listed in RePEc written by members of the above institution who are registered with the RePEc Author Service. Thus this compiles the works all those currently affiliated with this institution, not those affilated at the time of publication. List of registered members. Register yourself. Citation analysis. This page is updated in the first days of each month.
| Working papers | Journal articles | Chapters |

Working papers

2026

  1. Neil R. Ericsson & Andrew B. Martinez, 2026, "Unit Roots and Cointegration: A Panel Discussion with David Hendry, Peter Phillips, Katarina Juselius, and Søren Johansen," Working Papers, The George Washington University, The Center for Economic Research, number 2026-009, May.

2025

  1. William Barcelona & Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia & Jasper Hoek & Eva Van Leemput, 2025, "Is China Really Growing at 5 Percent?," FEDS Notes, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), number 2025-06-06-4, Jun, DOI: 10.17016/2380-7172.3784.
  2. Andrew B. Martinez, 2025, "How do Macroeconomic Expectations React to Extreme Weather Shocks?," Working Papers, The George Washington University, The Center for Economic Research, number 2025-001, Jan.
  3. Luke P. Jackson & Katarina Juselius & Andrew B. Martinez & Felix Pretis, 2025, "Modelling the dependence between recent changes in polar ice sheets: Implications for global sea-level projections," Working Papers, The George Washington University, The Center for Economic Research, number 2025-002, Apr.
  4. Andrew B. Martinez & Alexander D. Schibuola & David Beckworth, 2025, "The Reliability of the Nominal GDP Expectations Gap," Working Papers, The George Washington University, The Center for Economic Research, number 2025-004, Jun.
  5. Andrew B. Martinez, 2025, "Real-time Hurricane Damage Nowcasts," Working Papers, The George Washington University, The Center for Economic Research, number 2025-006, Oct.
  6. Andrew Martinez & Tara Sinclair, 2025, "When the Fed Reveals Its Hand: The SEP and Monetary Policy Surprises," Working Papers, The George Washington University, The Center for Economic Research, number 2025-013, Dec.
  7. William Larson & Andrew Martinez, 2025, "How Debt Affects the Relationship Between House Prices and Mortgage Rates," The OFR Blog, Office of Financial Research, US Department of the Treasury, number 25-06, Jun.

2024

  1. William D. Larson & Andrew B. Martinez, 2024, "House Prices, Debt Burdens, and the Heterogeneous Effects of Mortgage Rate Shocks," Working Papers, The George Washington University, The Center for Economic Research, number 2024-002, Jul.
  2. Motohiro Yogo & Andrew Whitten & Natalie Cox, 2024, "Financial Inclusion Across the United States," NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number 33256, Dec.

2023

  1. William C. Boning & Drahomir Klimsa & Joel Slemrod & Robert Ullmann, 2023, "Norderfriedrichskoog! Tax Havens, Tax Competition and the Introduction of a Minimum Tax Rate," NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number 31225, May.
  2. William C. Boning & Nathaniel Hendren & Ben Sprung-Keyser & Ellen Stuart, 2023, "A Welfare Analysis of Tax Audits Across the Income Distribution," NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number 31376, Jun.
  3. Ben S. Meiselman & Stefan Nagel & Amiyatosh Purnanandam, 2023, "Judging Banks’ Risk by the Profits They Report," NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number 31635, Aug.

2022

  1. William Barcelona & Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia & Jasper Hoek & Eva Van Leemput, 2022, "What Happens in China Does Not Stay in China," International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), number 1360, Nov, DOI: 10.17016/IFDP.2022.1360.
  2. Jennifer L. Castle & David F. Hendry & Andrew B. Martinez, 2022, "The Historical Role of Energy in UK Inflation and Productivity and Implications for Price Inflation in 2022," Working Papers, The George Washington University, The Center for Economic Research, number 2022-001, Sep.
  3. Dobridge, Christine L. & Lester, Rebecca & Whitten, Andrew, 2022, "IPOs and Corporate Tax Planning," Research Papers, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business, number 4064, Nov.
  4. Lucas Goodman & Katherine Lim & Bruce Sacerdote & Andrew Whitten, 2022, "Automatic Tax Filing: Simulating a Pre-Populated Form 1040," NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number 30008, Apr.
  5. Aymeric Bellon & Christine L. Dobridge & Erik P. Gilje & Andrew Whitten, 2022, "The Secular Decline in Private Firm Leverage," NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number 30034, May.

2021

  1. Jasper Hoek & Steven B. Kamin & Emre Yoldas, 2021, "Are Rising U.S. Interest Rates Destabilizing for Emerging Market Economies?," FEDS Notes, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), number 2021-06-23-2, Jun, DOI: 10.17016/2380-7172.2930.
  2. Asatryan, Zareh & Joulfaian, David, 2021, "Taxes and business philanthropy in Armenia," ZEW Discussion Papers, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research, number 21-022.
  3. Martinez, Andrew & Schibuola, Alex, 2021, "The Expectations Gap: An Alternative Measure of Economic Slack," Working Papers, George Mason University, Mercatus Center, number 11284, Sep.
  4. David H. Bernstein & Andrew B. Martinez, 2021, "Jointly Modeling Male and Female Labor Participation and Unemployment," Working Papers, The George Washington University, The Center for Economic Research, number 2021-006, Nov.
  5. Christine L. Dobridge & Rebecca Lester & Andrew Whitten, 2021, "IPOs and Corporate Taxes," Finance and Economics Discussion Series, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), number 2021-058, Sep, revised Nov 2022, DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2021.058.
  6. Lucas Goodman & Katherine Lim & Bruce Sacerdote & Andrew Whitten, 2021, "How Do Business Owners Respond to a Tax Cut? Examining the 199A Deduction for Pass-through Firms," NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number 28680, Apr.

2020

  1. Shaghil Ahmed & Jasper Hoek & Steven B. Kamin & Ben Smith & Emre Yoldas, 2020, "The Impact of COVID-19 on Emerging Market Economies' Financial Conditions," FEDS Notes, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), number 2020-10-07-1, Oct, DOI: 10.17016/2380-7172.2749.
  2. Jasper Hoek & Steven B. Kamin & Emre Yoldas, 2020, "When is Bad News Good News? U.S. Monetary Policy, Macroeconomic News, and Financial Conditions in Emerging Markets," International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), number 1269, Jan, DOI: 10.17016/IFDP.2020.1269.
  3. Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020, "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers, arXiv.org, number 2012.03854, Dec, revised Jan 2022.
    • Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022, "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, volume 38, issue 3, pages 705-871, DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2021.11.001.
  4. Andrew B. Martinez, 2020, "Forecast Accuracy Matters for Hurricane Damages," Working Papers, The George Washington University, The Center for Economic Research, number 2020-003, May.
  5. Andrew B. Martinez, 2020, "Extracting Information from Different Expectations," Working Papers, The George Washington University, The Center for Economic Research, number 2020-008, Oct.
  6. Andrew B. Martinez & Jennifer L. Castle & David F. Hendry, 2020, "Smooth Robust Multi-Horizon Forecasts," Working Papers, The George Washington University, The Center for Economic Research, number 2020-009, Dec.

2019

  1. Shaghil Ahmed & Ricardo Correa & Daniel A. Dias & Nils M. Gornemann & Jasper Hoek & Anil K. Jain & Edith X. Liu & Anna Wong, 2019, "Global Spillovers of a China Hard Landing," International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), number 1260, Oct, DOI: 10.17016/IFDP.2019.1260.

2018

  1. Williamson, James M. & Bawa, Siraj G., 2018, "Estimated Effects of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act on Farms and Farm Households," Economic Research Report, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, number 276226, Sep, DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.276226.
  2. William C. Boning & John Guyton & Ronald H. Hodge, II & Joel Slemrod & Ugo Troiano, 2018, "Heard it Through the Grapevine: Direct and Network Effects of a Tax Enforcement Field Experiment," NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number 24305, Feb.

2017

  1. Bawa, Siraj, 2017, "Corporate Taxation in the Open Economy without Pareto," MPRA Paper, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 80857, Jun, revised Aug 2017.
  2. Andrew Martinez, 2017, "Testing for Differences in Path Forecast Accuracy: Forecast-Error Dynamics Matter," Working Papers (Old Series), Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, number 1717, Nov, DOI: 10.26509/frbc-wp-201717.
  3. Andrew B. Martinez, 2017, "How quickly can we adapt to change? An assessment of hurricane damage mitigation efforts using forecast uncertainty," Economics Series Working Papers, University of Oxford, Department of Economics, number 831, Aug.

2016

  1. Robert Gordon & David Joulfaian & James Poterba, 2016, "Revenue and Incentive Effects of Basis Step-Up at Death: Lessons from the 2010 "Voluntary" Estate Tax Regime," NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number 22090, Mar.
  2. Robert Gordon & David Joulfaian & James M. Poterba, 2016, "Choosing Between an Estate Tax and a Basis Carryover Regime: Evidence from 2010," NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number 22722, Oct.
  3. David Hendry & Andrew B. Martinez, 2016, "Evaluating Multi-Step System Forecasts with Relatively Few Forecast-Error Observations," Economics Series Working Papers, University of Oxford, Department of Economics, number 784, Mar.
  4. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2016, "Policy Analysis, Forediction, and Forecast Failure," Economics Series Working Papers, University of Oxford, Department of Economics, number 809, Oct.

2015

  1. Christopher R. Knittel & Ben S. Meiselman & James H. Stock, 2015, "The Pass-Through of RIN Prices to Wholesale and Retail Fuels under the Renewable Fuel Standard," NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number 21343, Jul.

2014

  1. Andrew Martinez, 2014, "How Good Are U.S. Government Forecasts of the Federal Debt?," Economics Series Working Papers, University of Oxford, Department of Economics, number 727, Oct.

2011

  1. Andrew B. Martinez, 2011, "Comparing Government Forecasts of the United States’ Gross Federal Debt," Working Papers, The George Washington University, The Center for Economic Research, number 2011-002, Feb.

2006

  1. Hoek, Jasper, 2006, "Life Cycle Effects of Job Displacement in Brazil," IZA Discussion Papers, IZA Network @ LISER, number 2291, Sep.
  2. Robert Carroll & David Joulfaian & Mark Rider, 2006, "Income Mobility: The Recent American Experience," International Center for Public Policy Working Paper Series, at AYSPS, GSU, International Center for Public Policy, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University, number paper0620, Jul.
  3. David Joulfaian, 2006, "Inheritance and Saving," NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number 12569, Oct.

2005

  1. David Joulfaian, 2005, "Choosing Between Gifts and Bequests: How Taxes Affect the Timing of Wealth Transfers," NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number 11025, Jan.
  2. David Joulfaian, 2005, "Estate Taxes and Charitable Bequests: Evidence from Two Tax Regimes," Public Economics, University Library of Munich, Germany, number 0505004, May.

2004

  1. Cletus C. Coughlin & Patricia S. Pollard, 2004, "Size matters: asymmetric exchange rate pass-through at the industry level," Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, number 2003-029, DOI: 10.20955/wp.2003.029.

2003

  1. Leslie Hull, 2003, "Financial deregulation and household indebtedness," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, number DP2003/01, Jan.
  2. David Joulfaian & Mark Rider, 2003, "Errors in Variables and Estimated Price Elasticities for Charitable Giving," International Center for Public Policy Working Paper Series, at AYSPS, GSU, International Center for Public Policy, Andrew Young School of Policy Studies, Georgia State University, number paper0307, Mar.
  3. Rowena A. Pecchenino & Patricia S. Pollard, 2003, "A simple model of international capital flows, exchange rate risk, and portfolio choice," Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, number 2000-009, DOI: 10.20955/wp.2000.009.
  4. Rowena A. Pecchenino & Patricia S. Pollard, 2003, "Aging, myopia and the pay-as-you-go public pension systems of the G7: a bright future?," Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, number 2000-015, DOI: 10.20955/wp.2000.015.
  5. Cletus C. Coughlin & Patricia S. Pollard, 2003, "Pass-through estimates and the choice of an exchange rate index," Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, number 2003-004, DOI: 10.20955/wp.2003.004.

2002

  1. Jasper Hoek, 2002, "Labor Market Institutions and Restructuring: Evidence from Regulated and Unregulated Labor Markets in Brazil," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan, number 484, Jul.
  2. Leslie Hull, 2002, "Foreign-owned banks: Implications for New Zealand's financial stability," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, number DP2002/05, Apr.

2001

  1. Rowena A. Pecchenino & Patricia S. Pollard, 2001, "Government mandated private pensions: a dependable foundation for retirement security?," Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, number 1999-012, DOI: 10.20955/wp.1999.012.

2000

  1. David Joulfaian, 2000, "Estate Taxes and Charitable Bequests by the Wealthy," NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number 7663, Apr.
  2. Rowena A. Pecchenino & Patricia S. Pollard, 2000, "Dependent children and aged parents: funding education and social security in an aging economy," Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, number 1995-001, DOI: 10.20955/wp.1995.001.
  3. Cletus C. Coughlin & Patricia S. Pollard, 2000, "Exchange rate pass-through in U. S. manufacturing: exchange rate index choice and asymmetry issues," Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, number 2000-022, DOI: 10.20955/wp.2000.022.

1999

  1. Rowena A. Pecchenino & Patricia S. Pollard, 1999, "The effects of aging and myopia on the pay-as-you-go social security systems of the G7," Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, number 1998-023, DOI: 10.20955/wp.1998.023.

1998

  1. Rowena A. Pecchenino & Patricia S. Pollard, 1998, "The transition from a-pay-as-you-go to a fully-funded Social Security System: is there a role for social insurance?," Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, number 1997-022, DOI: 10.20955/wp.1997.022.
  2. Cletus C. Coughlin & Patricia S. Pollard, 1998, "Constructing and using national and regional TWEXs: the case for chaining," Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, number 1998-012, DOI: 10.20955/wp.1998.012.

1997

  1. Jerram C. Betts & Cletus C. Coughlin & Patricia S. Pollard, 1997, "To chain or not to chain trade-weighted exchange rate indexes," Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, number 1996-010, DOI: 10.20955/wp.1996.010.
  2. Patricia S. Pollard, 1997, "The role of the euro as an international currency," Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, number 1997-021, DOI: 10.20955/wp.1997.021.

1995

  1. Rowena A. Pecchenino & Patricia S. Pollard, 1995, "The effects of annuities, bequests, and aging in an overlapping generations model of endogenous growth," Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, number 1995-008, DOI: 10.20955/wp.1995.008.

1993

  1. Douglas Holtz-Eakin & David Joulfaian & Harvey S. Rosen, 1993, "Sticking it Out: Entrepreneurial Survival and Liquidity Constraints," NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number 4494, Oct.
  2. Patricia S. Pollard, 1993, "Macroeconomic policy effects in a monetary union," Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, number 1993-001, DOI: 10.20955/wp.1993.001.

1992

  1. Joulfaian, D. & Wilheim, M.O., 1992, "Intergenerational Earnings Mobility Among The Wealthy," Papers, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics, number 3-92-2.
  2. Joulfaian, D. & Wilheim, M.O., 1992, "Inheritance and Labor Supply," Papers, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics, number 6-92-2.
  3. Holtz-Eakin, D. & Joulfaian, D. & Rosen, H.S., 1992, "Entrepreneurial Decisions and Liquidity Constraints," Papers, Princeton, Department of Economics - Financial Research Center, number 129.
  4. Douglas Holtz-Eakin & David Joulfaian & Harvey S. Rosen, 1992, "The Carnegie Conjecture: Some Empirical Evidence," NBER Working Papers, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number 4118, Jul.

Undated

  1. Castillo, Marcelo J. & Bawa, Siraj G., undated, "Foreign Born Physicians and Healthcare Outcomes in Rural Communities," 2017 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 1, Chicago, Illinois, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, number 258474, DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.258474.
  2. Bawa, Siraj G. & Williamson, James M., undated, "Tax Reform and Farm Households," 2018 Allied Social Sciences Association (ASSA) Annual Meeting, January 5-7, 2018, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, number 266294, DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.266294.
  3. Bawa, Siraj G., undated, "Good intentions bad outcomes: the effects of investment subsidies on agricultural productivity," 2017 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 1, Chicago, Illinois, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, number 258485, DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.258485.
  4. Siraj G. Bawa & Scott Callahan, undated, "Absent Landlords in Agriculture -- A Statistical Analysis," USDA Miscellaneous, United States Department of Agriculture, number 310203, DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.310203.

Journal articles

2026

  1. Nicolas Caramp & Ethan Feilich, 2026, "Monetary Policy and Government Debt," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, volume 58, issue 2, pages 389-420, March, DOI: 10.1111/jmcb.13215.
  2. Neil R. Ericsson & Andrew B. Martinez, 2026, "Unit Roots and Cointegration: A Panel Discussion With David Hendry, Peter Phillips, Katarina Juselius, and Søren Johansen," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, volume 88, issue 4, pages 573-586, August, DOI: 10.1111/obes.70096.
  3. Victoria Tribone & Andrew B. Martinez & Neil R. Ericsson, 2026, "Insights From Cointegration: Gender and Age Disparities in the US Labor Market," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, volume 88, issue 4, pages 847-870, August, DOI: 10.1111/obes.70099.
  4. Andrew B. Martinez & Alexander D. Schibuola & David Beckworth, 2026, "The Reliability of the Nominal GDP Expectations Gap," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, volume 22, issue 2, pages 525-557, April.

2025

  1. William C. Boning & Joel Slemrod & Ellen Stuart & Alex Turk, 2025, "Does giving tax debtors a break improve compliance and income? Evidence from quasi‐random assignment of IRS Revenue Officers," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, volume 63, issue 2, pages 486-503, April, DOI: 10.1111/ecin.13268.
  2. William C Boning & Nathaniel Hendren & Ben Sprung-Keyser & Ellen Stuart, 2025, "A Welfare Analysis of Tax Audits Across the Income Distribution," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, volume 140, issue 1, pages 63-112.
  3. Andrew B. Martinez & Neil R. Ericsson, 2025, "Improving empirical models and forecasts with saturation-based machine learning," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, volume 346, issue 1, pages 447-487, March, DOI: 10.1007/s10479-024-06373-y.
  4. Yogo, Motohiro & Whitten, Andrew & Cox, Natalie, 2025, "Financial Inclusion Across the United States," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, volume 166, issue C, DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2025.104003.
  5. Goodman, Lucas & Lim, Katherine & Sacerdote, Bruce & Whitten, Andrew, 2025, "How do business owners respond to a tax cut? Examining the 199A deduction for pass-through firms," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, volume 242, issue C, DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2024.105293.

2023

  1. Castle, Jennifer L. & Hendry, David F. & Martinez, Andrew B., 2023, "The historical role of energy in UK inflation and productivity with implications for price inflation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, volume 126, issue C, DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2023.106947.
  2. Lucas Goodman & Katherine Lim & Bruce Sacerdote & Andrew Whitten, 2023, "Automated Tax Filing: Simulating a Prepopulated Form 1040," National Tax Journal, University of Chicago Press, volume 76, issue 4, pages 805-838, DOI: 10.1086/726592.

2022

  1. Asatryan, Zareh & Joulfaian, David, 2022, "Taxes and Business Philanthropy in Armenia," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, volume 200, issue C, pages 914-930, DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2022.06.008.
  2. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022, "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, volume 38, issue 3, pages 705-871, DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2021.11.001.
    • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020, "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers, arXiv.org, number 2012.03854, Dec, revised Jan 2022.
  3. Ben S. Meiselman & Collin Weigel & Paul J. Ferraro & Mark Masters & Kent D. Messer & Olesya M. Savchenko & Jordan F. Suter, 2022, "Lottery Incentives and Resource Management: Evidence from the Agricultural Data Reporting Incentive Program (AgDRIP)," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, volume 82, issue 4, pages 847-867, August, DOI: 10.1007/s10640-022-00690-1.

2021

  1. David H. Bernstein & Andrew B. Martinez, 2021, "Jointly Modeling Male and Female Labor Participation and Unemployment," Econometrics, MDPI, volume 9, issue 4, pages 1-14, December.

2020

  1. Siraj G. Bawa & Nam T. Vu, 2020, "International effects of corporate tax cuts on income distribution," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, volume 28, issue 5, pages 1164-1190, November, DOI: 10.1111/roie.12485.
  2. Siraj G. Bawa & James M. Williamson, 2020, "Distributional Impacts of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act Using Farm Household Microdata," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, volume 42, issue 4, pages 835-855, December, DOI: 10.1093/aepp/ppz012.
  3. Boning, William C. & Guyton, John & Hodge, Ronald & Slemrod, Joel, 2020, "Heard it through the grapevine: The direct and network effects of a tax enforcement field experiment on firms," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, volume 190, issue C, DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2020.104261.
  4. Andrew B. Martinez, 2020, "Forecast Accuracy Matters for Hurricane Damage," Econometrics, MDPI, volume 8, issue 2, pages 1-24, May.
  5. Andrew B. Martinez, 2020, "Improving normalized hurricane damages," Nature Sustainability, Nature, volume 3, issue 7, pages 517-518, July, DOI: 10.1038/s41893-020-0550-5.
  6. Jacob A. Mortenson & Andrew Whitten, 2020, "Bunching to Maximize Tax Credits: Evidence from Kinks in the US Tax Schedule," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, volume 12, issue 3, pages 402-432, August, DOI: 10.1257/pol.20180054.

2019

  1. Francisco Alpízar & María Bernedo Del Carpio & Paul J. Ferraro & Ben S. Meiselman, 2019, "The impacts of a capacity-building workshop in a randomized adaptation project," Nature Climate Change, Nature, volume 9, issue 8, pages 587-591, August, DOI: 10.1038/s41558-019-0536-3.
  2. Jacob A. Mortenson & Heidi R. Schramm & Andrew Whitten, 2019, "The Effects of Required Minimum Distribution Rules on Withdrawals from Traditional IRAs," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, volume 72, issue 3, pages 507-542, September, DOI: 10.17310/ntj.2019.3.02.

2018

  1. Joel Slemrod & William C. Boning, 2018, "Real Firms in Tax Systems," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, volume 74, issue 1, pages 131-143, March, DOI: 10.1628/fa-2018-0002.
  2. Joulfaian, David, 2018, "Saving for retirement by the self-employed," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, volume 17, issue 3, pages 316-334, July.
  3. Meiselman, Ben S., 2018, "Ghostbusting in Detroit: Evidence on nonfilers from a controlled field experiment," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, volume 158, issue C, pages 180-193, DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2018.01.005.

2017

  1. Hendry, David F. & Martinez, Andrew B., 2017, "Evaluating multi-step system forecasts with relatively few forecast-error observations," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, volume 33, issue 2, pages 359-372, DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2016.08.007.
  2. Jennifer L. Castle & David F. Hendry & Andrew B. Martinez, 2017, "Evaluating Forecasts, Narratives and Policy Using a Test of Invariance," Econometrics, MDPI, volume 5, issue 3, pages 1-27, September.
  3. Christopher R. Knittel & Ben S. Meiselman & James H. Stock, 2017, "The Pass-Through of RIN Prices to Wholesale and Retail Fuels under the Renewable Fuel Standard," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, volume 4, issue 4, pages 1081-1119, DOI: 10.1086/692071.

2016

  1. Robert Gordon & David Joulfaian & James Poterba, 2016, "Revenue and Incentive Effects of Basis Step-Up at Death: Lessons from the 2010 "Voluntary" Estate Tax Regime," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, volume 106, issue 5, pages 662-667, May.
  2. Robert N. Gordon & David Joulfaian & James M. Poterba, 2016, "Choosing Between an Estate Tax and a Basis Carryover Regime: Evidence From 2010," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, volume 69, issue 4, pages 981-1002, December, DOI: 10.17310/ntj.2016.4.12.

2015

  1. Martinez, Andrew B., 2015, "How good are US government forecasts of the federal debt?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, volume 31, issue 2, pages 312-324, DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2014.08.014.

2014

  1. Joulfaian, David, 2014, "To own or not to own your life insurance policy?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, volume 118, issue C, pages 120-127, DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2014.07.004.

2012

  1. Flynn, Sean Masaki & Donnelly, Michael, 2012, "Does labor contract completeness drive unionization? Experimental evidence," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, volume 41, issue 4, pages 445-454, DOI: 10.1016/j.socec.2011.07.002.

2011

  1. Carroll, Robert & Joulfaian, David & Mackie, James, 2011, "Income Versus Consumption Tax Baselines for Tax Expenditures," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, volume 64, issue 2, pages 491-510, June, DOI: 10.17310/ntj.2011.2S.03.
  2. David Joulfaian, 2011, "Debt Policy and Corporate Choice of Organizational Form," Public Finance Review, , volume 39, issue 6, pages 770-783, November, DOI: 10.1177/1091142111422441.

2009

  1. David Joulfaian, 2009, "Bribes and Business Tax Evasion," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), volume 6, issue 2, pages 227-244, December.

2007

  1. David Griffiths, 2007, "Forecasting income shares: are mean-reversion assumptions appropriate?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, volume 39, issue 21, pages 2699-2711, DOI: 10.1080/00036840600722299.
  2. Chau Do & Irina Paley, 2007, "Explaining the Growth of Higher-Priced Loans in HMDA: A Decomposition Approach," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, volume 29, issue 4, pages 441-478.

2006

  1. Joulfaian, David, 2006, "The Behavioral Response of Wealth Accumulation to Estate Taxation: Time Series Evidence," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, volume 59, issue 2, pages 253-268, June, DOI: 10.17310/ntj.2006.2.04.
  2. Patricia S. Pollard & Cletus C. Coughlin, 2006, "Passthrough Estimates and the Choice of an Exchange Rate Index," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, volume 14, issue 4, pages 535-553, September, DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9396.2006.00642.x.

2005

  1. Joulfaian, David, 2005, "Choosing between gifts and bequests: How taxes affect the timing of wealth transfers," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, volume 89, issue 11-12, pages 2069-2091, December.
  2. Robert Carroll & David Joulfaian, 2005, "Taxes and Corporate Giving to Charity," Public Finance Review, , volume 33, issue 3, pages 300-317, May, DOI: 10.1177/1091142105274541.
  3. Rowena A. Pecchenino & Patricia S. Pollard, 2005, "Aging, Myopia, and the Pay‐As‐You‐Go Public Pension Systems of the G7: A Bright Future?," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, volume 7, issue 3, pages 449-470, August, DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9779.2005.00212.x.

2004

  1. David Griffiths, 2004, "The big problem of forecasting small change," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, volume 36, issue 19, pages 2195-2207, DOI: 10.1080/0003684042000306932.
  2. Joulfaian, David, 2004, "Gift taxes and lifetime transfers: time series evidence," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, volume 88, issue 9-10, pages 1917-1929, August.
  3. Joulfaian, David & Rider, Mark, 2004, "Errors–in–Variables and Estimated Income and Price Elasticities of Charitable Giving," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, volume 57, issue 1, pages 25-43, March, DOI: 10.17310/ntj.2004.1.02.
  4. Joulfaian, David & McGarry, Kathleen, 2004, "Estate and Gift Tax Incentives and Inter Vivos Giving," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, volume 57, issue 2, pages 429-444, June, DOI: 10.17310/ntj.2004.2S.04.
  5. Patricia S. Pollard, 2004, "Import prices and the exchange rate," International Economic Trends, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Feb.
  6. Patricia S. Pollard, 2004, "U.S. production abroad," National Economic Trends, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jun.
  7. Michael R. Pakko & Patricia S. Pollard, 2004, "Burger survey provides taste of international economics," The Regional Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan., pages 12-13.

2003

  1. Eiler John R & Hrung Warren B., 2003, "Federal Tax Benefits for Child Care: Progressivity Over Time, EGTRRA, and the Alternative Minimum Tax," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, volume 3, issue 1, pages 1-14, November, DOI: 10.2202/1538-0653.1191.
  2. Micahel Gordon & Leslie Hull & Clive Thorp, 2003, "Recent developments in New Zealand's financial stability," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, volume 66, September.
  3. Patricia S. Pollard, 2003, "Una mirada al interior de dos bancos centrales: el Banco Central Europeo y el Sistema Federal de Reserva," Boletín, CEMLA, volume 0, issue 3, pages 111-131, julio-sep.
  4. Patricia S. Pollard, 2003, "A look inside two central banks: the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, volume 85, issue Jan, pages 11-30.
  5. Michael R. Pakko & Patricia S. Pollard, 2003, "Burgernomics: a big MacT guide to purchasing power parity," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, volume 85, issue Nov, pages 9-28.

2002

  1. David Griffiths, 2002, "The attrition rate of United States coins in circulation: some evidence from Federal Reserve data," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, volume 34, issue 16, pages 2023-2029, DOI: 10.1080/00036840210122362.
  2. Leslie Hull, 2002, "Corporate behaviour and the balance of payments," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, volume 65, December.
  3. Pecchenino, Rowena A. & Pollard, Patricia S., 2002, "Dependent children and aged parents: funding education and social security in an aging economy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, volume 24, issue 2, pages 145-169, June.

2001

  1. Auten, Gerald & Joulfaian, David, 2001, "Bequest taxes and capital gains realizations," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, volume 81, issue 2, pages 213-229, August.
  2. Joulfaian, David, 2001, "Choosing Between an Income Tax and a Wealth Transfer Tax," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, volume 54, issue 3, pages 629-643, September, DOI: 10.17310/ntj.2001.3.14.
  3. Joulfaian, David & Richardson, David, 2001, "Who Takes Advantage of Tax-Deferred Savings Programs? Evidence From Federal Income Tax Data," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, volume 54, issue 3, pages 669-688, September, DOI: 10.17310/ntj.2001.3.16.
  4. Cletus C. Coughlin & Patricia S. Pollard, 2001, "What drives large current account deficits?," International Economic Trends, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May.
  5. Cletus C. Coughlin & Patricia S. Pollard, 2001, "Comparing manufacturing export growth across states: what accounts for the differences?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, volume 83, issue Jan, pages 25-40.
  6. Patricia S. Pollard, 2001, "The creation of the Euro and the role of the dollar in international markets," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, volume 83, issue May, pages 17-36.

2000

  1. Joulfaian, David, 2000, "A Quarter Century of Estate Tax Reforms," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, volume 53, issue 3, pages 343-360, September, DOI: 10.17310/ntj.2000.3.02.
  2. Joulfaian, David, 2000, "Estate Taxes and Charitable Bequests by the Wealthy," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, volume 53, issue 3, pages 743-764, September, DOI: 10.17310/ntj.2000.3S.07.
  3. Joulfaian, David, 2000, "Taxing Wealth Transfers and Its Behavioral Consequences," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, volume 53, issue 4, pages 933-958, December, DOI: 10.17310/ntj.2000.4.09.
  4. David Joulfaian, 2000, "Corporate Income Tax Evasion and Managerial Preferences," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, volume 82, issue 4, pages 698-701, November.
  5. Patricia S. Pollard, 2000, "Growth and the current account deficit," National Economic Trends, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Dec.
  6. Cletus C. Coughlin & Patricia S. Pollard, 2000, "The crisis that wasn't: Asia and the Eighth District," The Regional Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 12-13.
  7. Cletus C. Coughlin & Patricia S. Pollard, 2000, "State exports and the Asian crisis," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, volume 82, issue Jan, pages 3-14.

1999

  1. Patricia S. Pollard, 1999, "The Euro: new currency and new data," International Economic Trends, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May.
  2. Cletus C. Coughlin & Patricia S. Pollard, 1999, "Going down: the Asian crisis and U.S. exports," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 33-46.

1998

  1. Joulfaian, David & Rider, Mark, 1998, "Differential Taxation and TaxEvasion by Small Business," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, volume 51, issue 4, pages 675-687, December, DOI: 10.1086/NTJ41789362.
  2. Patricia S. Pollard, 1998, "Finally falling: unemployment duration," National Economic Trends, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul.
  3. Patricia S. Pollard, 1998, "Reforming Social Security in theory and practice: proceedings of a Symposium held at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, April 11, 1997 ; edited by Patricia S. Pollard," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar.
  4. Rowena A. Pecchenino & Patricia S. Pollard, 1998, "Reforming Social Security: a welfare analysis," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 19-30.

1997

  1. Pecchenino, Rowena A & Pollard, Patricia S, 1997, "The Effects of Annuities, Bequests, and Aging in an Overlapping Generations Model of Endogenous Growth," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, volume 107, issue 440, pages 26-46, January.
  2. Patricia S. Pollard, 1997, "The unemployment rate: a reliable statistic?," National Economic Trends, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jun.

1996

  1. Auten, Gerald & Joulfaian, David, 1996, "Charitable contributions and intergenerational transfers," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, volume 59, issue 1, pages 55-68, January.
  2. Joulfaian, David & Rider, Mark, 1996, "Tax Evasion in the Presence of Negative Income Tax Rates," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, volume 49, issue 4, pages 553-570, December, DOI: 10.1086/NTJ41789226.
  3. Corinne M. Krupp & Patricia S. Pollard, 1996, "Market Responses to Antidumping Laws: Some Evidence from the U.S. Chemical Industry," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, volume 29, issue 1, pages 199-227, February.
  4. Michael R. Pakko & Patricia S. Pollard, 1996, "For here or to go? Purchasing power parity and the Big Mac," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, volume 78, issue Jan, pages 3-22.
  5. Cletus C. Coughlin & Patricia S. Pollard, 1996, "A question of measurement: is the dollar rising or falling?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, volume 78, issue Jul, pages 3-18.

1995

  1. Patricia S. Pollard, 1995, "EMU: will it fly?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 3-16.

1994

  1. Douglas Holtz-Eakin & David Joulfaian & Harvey S. Rosen, 1994, "Entrepreneurial Decisions and Liquidity Constraints," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, volume 25, issue 2, pages 334-347, Summer.
  2. Holtz-Eakin, Douglas & Joulfaian, David & Rosen, Harvey S, 1994, "Sticking It Out: Entrepreneurial Survival and Liquidity Constraints," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, volume 102, issue 1, pages 53-75, February, DOI: 10.1086/261921.
  3. David Joulfaian & Mark O. Wilhelm, 1994, "Inheritance and Labor Supply," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, volume 29, issue 4, pages 1205-1234.
  4. Patricia S. Pollard, 1994, "Trade between the United States and Eastern Europe," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 25-46.

1993

  1. Douglas Holtz-Eakin & David Joulfaian & Harvey S. Rosen, 1993, "The Carnegie Conjecture: Some Empirical Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, volume 108, issue 2, pages 413-435.
  2. Patricia S. Pollard, 1993, "Central bank independence and economic performance," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 21-36.

1992

  1. Joulfaian, David & Mackie, James B. III, 1992, "Sales Taxes, Investment, and the Tax Reform Act of 1986," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, volume 45, issue 1, pages 89-105, March, DOI: 10.1086/NTJ41788948.

1991

  1. Joulfaian, David & Marlow, Michael L., 1991, "The relationship between on-budget and off-budget government," Economics Letters, Elsevier, volume 35, issue 3, pages 307-310, March.
  2. Jones, Jonathan D. & Joulfaian, David, 1991, "Federal govemment expenditures and revenues in the early years of the American republic: Evidence from 1792 to 1860," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, volume 13, issue 1, pages 133-155.
  3. Joulfaian, David & Marlow, Michael L, 1991, "Incentives and Political Contributions," Public Choice, Springer, volume 69, issue 3, pages 351-355, March.
  4. Joulfaian, David, 1991, "Charitable Bequests and Estate Taxes," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, volume 44, issue 2, pages 169-180, June, DOI: 10.1086/NTJ41788889.
  5. Joulfaian, David & Marlow, Michael L, 1991, "Public Sector Employment, Competition, and Government Size," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , volume 46, issue 2, pages 222-235.

1990

  1. Joulfaian, David & Mookerjee, Rajen, 1990, "The Intertemporal Relationship between State and Local Government Revenues and Expenditures: Evidence from OECD Countries," Public Finance = Finances publiques, , volume 45, issue 1, pages 109-117.
  2. David Joulfaian & Rajen Mookeriee, 1990, "The Government Revenue-Expenditure Nexus: Evidence from a State," Public Finance Review, , volume 18, issue 1, pages 92-103, January, DOI: 10.1177/109114219001800106.

1989

  1. Michael Marlow & David Joulfaian, 1989, "The determinants of off-budget activity of state and local governments," Public Choice, Springer, volume 63, issue 2, pages 113-123, November, DOI: 10.1007/BF00153395.

Undated

  1. Bawa, Siraj Gustavo, undated, "Under the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, Only 0.11 Percent of Farm Estates Would Have Owed Estate Taxes in 2016," Amber Waves:The Economics of Food, Farming, Natural Resources, and Rural America, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, volume 0, issue 08, DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.302648.

Chapters

2024

  1. Andrew B. Martinez & Andrew J. Wilson, 2024, "Forecasting the macroeconomic effects of physical climate risk," Chapters, Edward Elgar Publishing, chapter 15, in: Michael P. Clements & Ana Beatriz Galvão, "Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Macroeconomic Forecasting".

2022

  1. Andrew B. Martinez & Jennifer L. Castle & David F. Hendry, 2022, "Smooth Robust Multi-Horizon Forecasts," Advances in Econometrics, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, "Essays in Honor of M. Hashem Pesaran: Prediction and Macro Modeling", DOI: 10.1108/S0731-90532021000043A008.

2008

  1. Robert Carroll & David Joulfaian & James Mackie, 2008, "Income versus Consumption Tax Baselines for Tax Expenditures," NBER Chapters, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, "Economic Analysis of Tax Expenditures".

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