IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/red/sed018/934.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

How Safe are Central Counterparties in Derivatives Markets?

Author

Listed:
  • Mark Paddrik

    (Office of Financial Research, U.S. Treasury)

  • Peyton Young

    (University of Oxford, Nuffield College)

Abstract

We propose a general framework for estimating the likelihood of default by central counterparties (CCP) in derivatives markets. Unlike conventional stress testing approaches, which estimate the ability of a CCP to withstand nonpayment by its two largest counterparties, we study the direct and indirect effects of nonpayment by members and/or their clients through the full network of exposures. We illustrate the approach for the U.S. credit default swaps (CDS) market under shocks that are similar in magnitude to the Federal Reserve's stress tests. The analysis indicates that conventional stress testing approaches may underestimate the potential vulnerability of the main CCP for this market.

Suggested Citation

  • Mark Paddrik & Peyton Young, 2018. "How Safe are Central Counterparties in Derivatives Markets?," 2018 Meeting Papers 934, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    • Handle: RePEc:red:sed018:934
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://red-files-public.s3.amazonaws.com/meetpapers/2018/paper_934.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rama Cont & Andreea Minca, 2016. "Credit default swaps and systemic risk," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 247(2), pages 523-547, December.
    2. France, Virginia G. & Kahn, Charles M., 2016. "Law as a constraint on bailouts: Emergency support for central counterparties," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 22-31.
    3. Duffie, Darrell & Scheicher, Martin & Vuillemey, Guillaume, 2015. "Central clearing and collateral demand," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(2), pages 237-256.
    4. Stefano Giglio, 2011. "Credit default swap spreads and systemic financial risk," Proceedings 1122, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    5. Mark Paddrik & Sriram Rajan & H. Peyton Young, 2020. "Contagion in Derivatives Markets," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(8), pages 3603-3616, August.
    6. repec:aei:rpaper:25935 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Glasserman, Paul & Young, H. Peyton, 2015. "How likely is contagion in financial networks?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 383-399.
    8. Office of Financial Research (ed.), . "New Public Disclosures Shed Light on Central Counterparties," Viewpoint Papers, Office of Financial Research, US Department of the Treasury, number 17-02.
    9. Mark Paddrik & H. Peyton Young, 2016. "Contagion in the CDS Market," Working Papers 16-12, Office of Financial Research, US Department of the Treasury.
    10. Larry Eisenberg & Thomas H. Noe, 2001. "Systemic Risk in Financial Systems," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 47(2), pages 236-249, February.
    11. Paul Glasserman & Peyton Young, 2015. "Contagion in Financial Networks," Economics Series Working Papers 764, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    12. Ghamami, Samim & Glasserman, Paul, 2017. "Does OTC derivatives reform incentivize central clearing?," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 76-87.
    13. Giulia Poce & Giulio Cimini & Andrea Gabrielli & Andrea Zaccaria & Giuditta Baldacci & Marco Polito & Mariangela Rizzo & Silvia Sabatini, 2016. "What do central counterparties default funds really cover? A network-based stress test answer," Papers 1611.03782, arXiv.org.
    14. Douglas D. Evanoff & Daniela Russo & Robert Steigerwald, 2006. "Policymakers, researchers, and practitioners discuss the role of central counterparties," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 30(Q IV), pages 2-21.
    15. Nahai-Williamson, Paul & Ota, Tomohiro & Vital, Mathieu & Wetherilt, Anne, 2013. "Financial Stability Paper No 19: Central counterparties and their financial resources – a numerical approach," Bank of England Financial Stability Papers 19, Bank of England.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Farmer, J Doyne & Kleinnijenhuis, Alissa M & Nahai-Williamson, Paul & Wetzer, Thom, 2020. "Foundations of system-wide financial stress testing with heterogeneous institutions," Bank of England working papers 861, Bank of England.
    2. Marco Bardoscia & Ginestra Bianconi & Gerardo Ferrara, 2019. "Multiplex network analysis of the UK over‐the‐counter derivatives market," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(4), pages 1520-1544, October.
    3. Kanno, Masayasu, 2020. "Interconnectedness and systemic risk in the US CDS market," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    4. Jin-Wook Chang, 2019. "Collateralized Debt Networks with Lender Default," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-083, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Metrick, Andrew, 2021. "Stress Tests and Policy," Journal of Financial Crises, Yale Program on Financial Stability (YPFS), vol. 3(1), pages 1-19, April.
    6. Wang, Hu & Li, Shouwei, 2020. "Risk contagion in multilayer network of financial markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 541(C).
    7. Tomasz R. Bielecki & Igor Cialenco & Shibi Feng, 2018. "A Dynamic Model of Central Counterparty Risk," Papers 1803.02012, arXiv.org.
    8. Melinda Friesz & Kira Muratov-Szabó & Andrea Prepuk & Kata Váradi, 2021. "Risk Mutualization in Central Clearing: An Answer to the Cross-Guarantee Phenomenon from the Financial Stability Viewpoint," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(8), pages 1-19, August.
    9. Dermot Turing & Mr. Manmohan Singh, 2018. "The Morning After--The Impact on Collateral Supply After a Major Default," IMF Working Papers 2018/228, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Tomasz R. Bielecki & Igor Cialenco & Shibi Feng, 2018. "A Dynamic Model Of Central Counterparty Risk," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 21(08), pages 1-34, December.
    11. Grothe, Magdalena & Pancost, N. Aaron & Tompaidis, Stathis, 2023. "Collateral competition: Evidence from central counterparties," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(3), pages 536-556.
    12. Radoslav Raykov, 2019. "Systemic Risk and Collateral Adequacy," Staff Working Papers 19-23, Bank of Canada.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. H Peyton Young & Mark Paddrik, 2019. "How Safe are Central Counterparties in Credit Default Swap Markets?," Economics Series Working Papers 885, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    2. Paddrick, Mark & Young, H. Peyton, 2021. "How safe are central counterparties in credit default swap markets?," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 101170, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    3. Marco Bardoscia & Paolo Barucca & Stefano Battiston & Fabio Caccioli & Giulio Cimini & Diego Garlaschelli & Fabio Saracco & Tiziano Squartini & Guido Caldarelli, 2021. "The Physics of Financial Networks," Papers 2103.05623, arXiv.org.
    4. Bardoscia, Marco & Ferrara, Gerardo & Vause, Nicholas & Yoganayagam, Michael, 2021. "Simulating liquidity stress in the derivatives market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    5. Mark Paddrik & Sriram Rajan & H. Peyton Young, 2020. "Contagion in Derivatives Markets," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(8), pages 3603-3616, August.
    6. Jin-Wook Chang, 2019. "Collateralized Debt Networks with Lender Default," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-083, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. Tathagata Banerjee & Zachary Feinstein, 2018. "Impact of Contingent Payments on Systemic Risk in Financial Networks," Papers 1805.08544, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2018.
    8. Paddrick, Mark & Rajan, Sriram & Young, H. Peyton, 2020. "Contagion in derivatives markets," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 100868, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    9. Bardoscia, Marco & Caccioli, Fabio & Gao, Haotian, 2022. "Efficiency of central clearing under liquidity stress," Bank of England working papers 1002, Bank of England.
    10. Mark Paddrik & Simpson Zhang, 2019. "Central Counterparty Default Waterfalls and Systemic Loss," 2019 Meeting Papers 213, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    11. Berndsen, Ron, 2020. "Five Fundamental Questions on Central Counterparties," Other publications TiSEM 1f3bd844-92ab-4104-8f57-9, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    12. D’Errico, Marco & Battiston, Stefano & Peltonen, Tuomas & Scheicher, Martin, 2018. "How does risk flow in the credit default swap market?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 53-74.
    13. Mark Paddrik & H. Peyton Young, 2016. "Contagion in the CDS Market," Working Papers 16-12, Office of Financial Research, US Department of the Treasury.
    14. Barnett, William A. & Wang, Xue & Xu, Hai-Chuan & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2022. "Hierarchical contagions in the interdependent financial network," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    15. Luitgard Anna Maria Veraart, 2022. "When does portfolio compression reduce systemic risk?," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(3), pages 727-778, July.
    16. Christoph Aymanns & J. Doyne Farmer & Alissa M. Keinniejenhuis & Thom Wetzer, 2017. "Models of Financial Stability and their Application in Stress Tests," Working Papers on Finance 1805, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    17. Shi, Qing & Sun, Xiaoqi & Jiang, Yile, 2022. "Concentrated commonalities and systemic risk in China's banking system: A contagion network approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    18. Hamed Amini & Zachary Feinstein, 2020. "Optimal Network Compression," Papers 2008.08733, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2022.
    19. Yu-Sin Chang, 2018. "Systemic Risk and the Dependence Structures," Papers 1809.03425, arXiv.org.
    20. Amini, Hamed & Feinstein, Zachary, 2023. "Optimal network compression," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 306(3), pages 1439-1455.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D85 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Network Formation
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • L14 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Transactional Relationships; Contracts and Reputation

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:red:sed018:934. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Christian Zimmermann (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sedddea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.