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Financial fragility with rational and irrational exuberance

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  • Roger Lagunoff
  • Stacey L. Schreft

Abstract

This article formalizes investor rationality and irrationality, exuberance and apprehension, to consider the implications of belief formation for the fragility of an economy's financial structure. The model presented generates a financial structure with portfolio linkages that make it susceptible to contagious financial crises, despite the absence of coordination failures. Investors forecast the likelihood of loss from contagion and may shift preemptively to safer portfolios, breaking portfolio linkages in the process. The entire financial structure collapses when the last group of investors reallocates their portfolios. If some investors are irrationally exuberant, the financial structure remains intact longer. In fact, financial collapse occurs sooner when almost all investors are rationally exuberant than when they are irrationally exuberant. Additionally, a financial crisis initiated by real shocks is indistinguishable from one caused solely by the presence of rationally apprehensive investors in a fundamentally sound economy. Policies that make portfolio linkages more resilient can improve welfare.
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Suggested Citation

  • Roger Lagunoff & Stacey L. Schreft, 1999. "Financial fragility with rational and irrational exuberance," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 531-567.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcpr:y:1999:p:531-567
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    1. Lagunoff, Roger & Schreft, Stacey L., 2001. "A Model of Financial Fragility," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 99(1-2), pages 220-264, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gary Gorton & Guillermo Ordo?ez, 2014. "Collateral Crises," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(2), pages 343-378, February.
    2. Helmut Wagner & Wolfram Berger, 2004. "Globalization, Financial Volatility and Monetary Policy," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, pages 163-184.
    3. Goldstein, Itay & Pauzner, Ady, 2004. "Contagion of self-fulfilling financial crises due to diversification of investment portfolios," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 151-183, November.
    4. Raffestin, Louis, 2014. "Diversification and systemic risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 85-106.
    5. Eric Friedman & Simon Johnson & Adam Landsberg, 2001. "Large-Scale Synchrony, Global Interdependence and Contagion," Departmental Working Papers 200103, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
    6. Theodoros Diasakos, 2008. "Comparative Statics of Asset Prices," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 72, Collegio Carlo Alberto, revised 2011.
    7. Mahua Barari & Brian Lucey & Svitlana Voronkova, 2005. "CEE Banking Sector Co-Movement: Contagion or Interdependence?," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp078, IIIS.
    8. Helmut Wagner & Wolfram Berger, 2003. "Financial Globalization and Monetary Policy," DNB Staff Reports (discontinued) 95, Netherlands Central Bank.
    9. Andreas Lehnert & Wayne Passmore, 1999. "Pricing systemic crises: monetary and fiscal policy when savers are uncertain," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-33, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    10. David A. Marshall, 2001. "The crisis of 1998 and the role of the central bank," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q I, pages 2-23.
    11. Lagunoff, Roger & Schreft, Stacey L., 2001. "A Model of Financial Fragility," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 99(1-2), pages 220-264, July.
    12. Eric J. Friedman & Simon Johnson & A.S. Landsberg, "undated". "The Emergence of Correlations in Studies of Global Economic Inter-dependence and Contagion," Claremont Colleges Working Papers 2002-35, Claremont Colleges.
    13. Bullard, James & Evans, George W. & Honkapohja, Seppo, 2010. "A Model Of Near-Rational Exuberance," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(02), pages 166-188, April.
    14. James B. Bullard & George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2004. "Near-rational exuberance," Working Papers 2004-025, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    15. Jorge A Chan-Lau & Iryna V. Ivaschenko, 2002. "Asian Flu or Wall Street Virus? Price and Volatility Spillovers of the Tech and Non-Tech Sectors in the United States and Asia," IMF Working Papers 02/154, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Chan-Lau, Jorge A. & Ivaschenko, Iryna, 2003. "Asian Flu or Wall Street virus? Tech and non-tech spillovers in the United States and Asia," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 13(4-5), pages 303-322, December.
    17. Scott Freeman, 2002. "Payments and Output," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 5(3), pages 602-617, July.
    18. James B. Bullard & George W. Evans & Seppo Honkapohja, 2004. "Near-rational exuberance," Working Papers 2004-025, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    19. Caramazza, Francesco & Ricci, Luca & Salgado, Ranil, 2004. "International financial contagion in currency crises," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 51-70, February.
    20. Rotheli, Tobias F., 2001. "Competition, herd behavior, and credit cycles: evidence from major Swiss Banks," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 53(6), pages 585-592.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Financial markets;

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • C73 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Stochastic and Dynamic Games; Evolutionary Games

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