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Elmar Mertens

Citations

Many of the citations below have been collected in an experimental project, CitEc, where a more detailed citation analysis can be found. These are citations from works listed in RePEc that could be analyzed mechanically. So far, only a minority of all works could be analyzed. See under "Corrections" how you can help improve the citation analysis.

Wikipedia or ReplicationWiki mentions

(Only mentions on Wikipedia that link back to a page on a RePEc service)
  1. Andr? Kurmann & Elmar Mertens, 2014. "Stock Prices, News, and Economic Fluctuations: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(4), pages 1439-1445, April.

    Mentioned in:

    1. Stock Prices, News, and Economic Fluctuations: Comment (AER 2014) in ReplicationWiki ()

Working papers

  1. Thomas Lubik & Christian Matthes & Elmar Mertens, 2022. "Online Appendix to "Indeterminacy and Imperfect Information"," Online Appendices 20-377, Review of Economic Dynamics.

    Cited by:

    1. Qazi Haque & Nicolas Groshenny & Mark Weder, 2021. "Do we really know that U.S. monetary policy was destabilizing in the 1970s?," Post-Print hal-04204647, HAL.
    2. Angelini, Giovanni & Sorge, Marco M., 2021. "Under the same (Chole)sky: DNK models, timing restrictions and recursive identification of monetary policy shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    3. Jia, Chengcheng, 2023. "The informational effect of monetary policy and the case for policy commitment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    4. Paul Levine & Joseph Pearlman & Stephen Wright & Bo Yang, 2023. "Imperfect Information and Hidden Dynamics," School of Economics Discussion Papers 1223, School of Economics, University of Surrey.

  2. Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino & Elmar Mertens, 2021. "Forecasting with Shadow-Rate VARs," Working Papers 21-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

    Cited by:

    1. Aruoba, S. Borağan & Mlikota, Marko & Schorfheide, Frank & Villalvazo, Sergio, 2022. "SVARs with occasionally-binding constraints," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(2), pages 477-499.

  3. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Clark, Todd & Carriero, Andrea & Mertens, Elmar, 2021. "Addressing COVID-19 Outliers in BVARs with Stochastic Volatility," CEPR Discussion Papers 15964, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Valenti, Daniele & Bastianin, Andrea & Manera, Matteo, "undated". "A weekly structural VAR model of the US crude oil market," FEEM Working Papers 324040, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    2. Joshua C. C. Chan, 2022. "Comparing Stochastic Volatility Specifications for Large Bayesian VARs," Papers 2208.13255, arXiv.org.
    3. Bańbura, Marta & Belousova, Irina & Bodnár, Katalin & Tóth, Máté Barnabás, 2023. "Nowcasting employment in the euro area," Working Paper Series 2815, European Central Bank.
    4. Hwee Kwan Chow & Keen Meng Choy, 2023. "Economic forecasting in a pandemic: some evidence from Singapore," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(5), pages 2105-2124, May.
    5. Frank Schorfheide & Dongho Song, 2020. "Real-Time Forecasting with a (Standard) Mixed-Frequency VAR During a Pandemic," PIER Working Paper Archive 20-039, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    6. Prüser, Jan, 2021. "The horseshoe prior for time-varying parameter VARs and Monetary Policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    7. Mertens, Elmar, 2023. "Precision-based sampling for state space models that have no measurement error," Discussion Papers 25/2023, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    8. Todd E. Clark & Florian Huber & Gary Koop & Massimiliano Marcellino & Michael Pfarrhofer, 2021. "Tail Forecasting with Multivariate Bayesian Additive Regression Trees," Working Papers 21-08R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 12 Jul 2022.
    9. Budnik, Katarzyna & Groß, Johannes & Vagliano, Gianluca & Dimitrov, Ivan & Lampe, Max & Panos, Jiri & Velasco, Sofia & Boucherie, Louis & Jančoková, Martina, 2023. "BEAST: A model for the assessment of system-wide risks and macroprudential policies," Working Paper Series 2855, European Central Bank.
    10. Bańbura, Marta & Bobeica, Elena & Martínez Hernández, Catalina, 2023. "What drives core inflation? The role of supply shocks," Working Paper Series 2875, European Central Bank.
    11. Sun, Weihong & Liu, Ding, 2023. "Great moderation with Chinese characteristics: Uncovering the role of monetary policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    12. Andrejs Zlobins, 2021. "On the Time-varying Effects of the ECB's Asset Purchases," Working Papers 2021/02, Latvijas Banka.
    13. Bhattacharjee, Arnab & Kohns, David, 2022. "Nowcasting Growth using Google Trends Data: A Bayesian Structural Time Series Model," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 538, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    14. Philippe Goulet Coulombe, 2022. "A Neural Phillips Curve and a Deep Output Gap," Papers 2202.04146, arXiv.org.
    15. Eraslan, Sercan & Schröder, Maximilian, 2023. "Nowcasting GDP with a pool of factor models and a fast estimation algorithm," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1460-1476.
    16. Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia, 2022. "Pandemic Priors," International Finance Discussion Papers 1352, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    17. Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino & Elmar Mertens, 2021. "Forecasting with Shadow-Rate VARs," Working Papers 21-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    18. Barend Abeln & Jan P.A.M. Jacobs, 2021. "COVID-19 and seasonal adjustment," CAMA Working Papers 2021-23, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    19. Cross, Jamie L. & Hou, Chenghan & Koop, Gary & Poon, Aubrey, 2023. "Large stochastic volatility in mean VARs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 236(1).
    20. Knüppel, Malte & Krüger, Fabian & Pohle, Marc-Oliver, 2022. "Score-based calibration testing for multivariate forecast distributions," Discussion Papers 50/2022, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    21. Luis J. Álvarez & Florens Odendahl, 2022. "Data outliers and Bayesian VARs in the Euro Area," Working Papers 2239, Banco de España.
    22. Colunga L. Fernando & Torre Cepeda Leonardo, 2023. "Effects of Supply, Demand, and Labor Market Shocks in the Mexican Manufacturing Sector," Working Papers 2023-10, Banco de México.
    23. Philippe Goulet Coulombe, 2022. "A Neural Phillips Curve and a Deep Output Gap," Working Papers 22-01, Chair in macroeconomics and forecasting, University of Quebec in Montreal's School of Management.
    24. Serena Ng, 2021. "Modeling Macroeconomic Variations After COVID-19," Papers 2103.02732, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2021.
    25. Kiss, Tamas & Nguyen, Hoang & Österholm, Pär, 2022. "Modelling Okun’s Law – Does non-Gaussianity Matter?," Working Papers 2022:1, Örebro University, School of Business.
    26. Morley, James & Palenzuela, Diego Rodriguez & Sun, Yiqiao & Wong, Benjamin, 2022. "Estimating the Euro Area output gap using multivariate information and addressing the COVID-19 pandemic," Working Paper Series 2716, European Central Bank.
    27. Nalban, Valeriu & Smădu, Andra, 2021. "Asymmetric effects of uncertainty shocks: Normal times and financial disruptions are different," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    28. Karlsson, Sune & Mazur, Stepan & Nguyen, Hoang, 2021. "Vector autoregression models with skewness and heavy tails," Working Papers 2021:8, Örebro University, School of Business.
    29. Chan, Joshua C.C. & Poon, Aubrey & Zhu, Dan, 2023. "High-dimensional conditionally Gaussian state space models with missing data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 236(1).
    30. Alanya-Beltran, Willy, 2022. "Unit roots in lower-bounded series with outliers," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    31. Bobeica, Elena & Hartwig, Benny, 2023. "The COVID-19 shock and challenges for inflation modelling," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 519-539.
    32. Florian Huber, 2023. "Bayesian Nonlinear Regression using Sums of Simple Functions," Papers 2312.01881, arXiv.org.
    33. Barauskaitė, Kristina & Nguyen, Anh D.M. & Rousová, Linda & Cappiello, Lorenzo, 2022. "The impact of credit supply shocks in the euro area: market-based financing versus loans," Working Paper Series 2673, European Central Bank.
    34. Kohns, David & Bhattacharjee, Arnab, 2023. "Nowcasting growth using Google Trends data: A Bayesian Structural Time Series model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1384-1412.
    35. Vito Polito & Yunyi Zhang, 2021. "Tackling Large Outliers in Macroeconomic Data with Vector Artificial Neural Network Autoregression," CESifo Working Paper Series 9395, CESifo.
    36. Evgenidis, Anastasios & Fasianos, Apostolos, 2023. "Modelling monetary policy’s impact on labour markets under Covid-19," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 230(C).
    37. Saeed Zaman, 2021. "A Unified Framework to Estimate Macroeconomic Stars," Working Papers 21-23R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 15 Aug 2022.

  4. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Carriero, Andrea & Clark, Todd & Mertens, Elmar, 2021. "Measuring Uncertainty and Its Effects in the COVID-19 Era," CEPR Discussion Papers 15965, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

    Cited by:

    1. Cross, Jamie L. & Hou, Chenghan & Koop, Gary & Poon, Aubrey, 2023. "Large stochastic volatility in mean VARs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 236(1).
    2. Luis J. Álvarez & Florens Odendahl, 2022. "Data outliers and Bayesian VARs in the Euro Area," Working Papers 2239, Banco de España.

  5. Thomas A. Lubik & Christian Matthes & Elmar Mertens, 2019. "Indeterminacy and Imperfect Information," Working Paper 19-17, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

    Cited by:

    1. Qazi Haque & Nicolas Groshenny & Mark Weder, 2021. "Do we really know that U.S. monetary policy was destabilizing in the 1970s?," Post-Print hal-04204647, HAL.
    2. Angelini, Giovanni & Sorge, Marco M., 2021. "Under the same (Chole)sky: DNK models, timing restrictions and recursive identification of monetary policy shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    3. Paul Levine & Joseph Pearlman & Stephen Wright & Bo Yang, 2023. "Imperfect Information and Hidden Dynamics," School of Economics Discussion Papers 1223, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    4. Sorge Marco M., 2020. "Computing sunspot solutions to rational expectations models with timing restrictions," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 20(2), pages 1-10, June.

  6. Benjamin K Johannsen & Elmar Mertens, 2018. "A time series model of interest rates with the effective lower bound," BIS Working Papers 715, Bank for International Settlements.

    Cited by:

    1. Marco Del Negro & Domenico Giannone & Marc Giannoni & Andrea Tambalotti, 2018. "Global trends in interest rates," Staff Reports 866, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    2. Breach, Tomas & D’Amico, Stefania & Orphanides, Athanasios, 2020. "The term structure and inflation uncertainty," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(2), pages 388-414.
    3. policy, Work stream on macroprudential & Albertazzi, Ugo & Martin, Alberto & Assouan, Emmanuelle & Tristani, Oreste & Galati, Gabriele & Vlassopoulos, Thomas, 2021. "The role of financial stability considerations in monetary policy and the interaction with macroprudential policy in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 272, European Central Bank.
    4. Valerie Grossman & Enrique Martínez García & Mark A. Wynne & Ren Zhang, 2019. "Ties That Bind: Estimating the Natural Rate of Interest for Small Open Economies," Globalization Institute Working Papers 359, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, revised 05 Mar 2021.
    5. Guido Ascari & Paolo Bonomolo & Qazi Haque, 2023. "The Long-Run Phillips Curve is ... a Curve," CAMA Working Papers 2023-37, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    6. Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul & Fabian Winkler, 2022. "The Natural Rate of Interest Through a Hall of Mirrors," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2022-010, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. Kathryn Holston & Thomas Laubach & John C. Williams, 2016. "Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest: International Trends and Determinants," Working Paper Series 2016-11, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    8. Renée Fry-McKibbin & Kate McKinnon & Vance L Martin, 2022. "Measuring Global Interest Rate Comovements with Implications for Monetary Policy Interdependence," RBA Annual Conference Papers acp2022-07, Reserve Bank of Australia, revised Dec 2022.
    9. Carriero, Andrea & Clark, Todd E. & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Mertens, Elmar, 2022. "Addressing COVID-19 outliers in BVARs with stochastic volatility," Discussion Papers 13/2022, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    10. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Carriero, Andrea & Clark, Todd, 2014. "No Arbitrage Priors, Drifting Volatilities, and the Term Structure of Interest Rates," CEPR Discussion Papers 9848, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Mertens, Elmar, 2023. "Precision-based sampling for state space models that have no measurement error," Discussion Papers 25/2023, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    12. Enrique Martínez García, 2020. "Get the Lowdown: The International Side of the Fall in the U.S. Natural Rate of Interest," Globalization Institute Working Papers 403, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, revised 20 Feb 2021.
    13. Reuven Glick, 2019. "R* and the Global Economy," Working Paper Series 2019-18, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    14. Callum Jones & Mariano Kulish & James Morley, 2022. "A Structural Measure of the Shadow Federal Funds Rate," Working Papers 170, Red Nacional de Investigadores en Economía (RedNIE).
    15. NAKAJIMA, Jouchi & SUDO, Nao & HOGEN, Yoshihiko & TAKIZUKA, Yasutaka, 2023. "On the estimation of the natural yield curve," Discussion Paper Series 753, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    16. Aruoba, S. Borağan & Mlikota, Marko & Schorfheide, Frank & Villalvazo, Sergio, 2022. "SVARs with occasionally-binding constraints," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(2), pages 477-499.
    17. Marc Giannoni & Domenico Giannone & Andrea Tambalotti & Marco Del Negro, 2017. "Safety, Liquidity, and the Natural Rate of Interest," 2017 Meeting Papers 803, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    18. Fernando M. Duarte & Benjamin K. Johannsen & Leonardo Melosi & Taisuke Nakata, 2020. "Strengthening the FOMC’s Framework in View of the Effective Lower Bound and Some Considerations Related to Time-Inconsistent Strategies," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-067, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    19. Krustev, Georgi, 2019. "The natural rate of interest and the financial cycle," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 193-210.
    20. Rossi, Barbara, 2019. "Identifying and Estimating the Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy: How to Do It And What Have We Learned?," CEPR Discussion Papers 14064, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    21. Claus, Edda & Claus, Iris & Krippner, Leo, 2018. "Asset market responses to conventional and unconventional monetary policy shocks in the United States," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 270-282.
    22. Luca Agnello & Vítor Castro & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2023. "Interest rate gaps in an uncertain global context: why “too” low (high) for “so” long?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(2), pages 539-565, February.
    23. Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Emanuel Moench & Bruce Preston, 2021. "The Term Structure of Expectations," Staff Reports 992, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    24. Reinhard Ellwanger, Stephen Snudden, Lenin Arango-Castillo, 2023. "Seize the Last Day: Period-End-Point Sampling for Forecasts of Temporally Aggregated Data," LCERPA Working Papers bm0142, Laurier Centre for Economic Research and Policy Analysis.
    25. Guihai Zhao, 2020. "Learning, Equilibrium Trend, Cycle, and Spread in Bond Yields," Staff Working Papers 20-14, Bank of Canada.
    26. Reinhard Ellwanger, Stephen Snudden, 2021. "Predictability of Aggregated Time Series," LCERPA Working Papers bm0127, Laurier Centre for Economic Research and Policy Analysis.
    27. Fu, Bowen, 2023. "Measuring the trend real interest rate in a data-rich environment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    28. Aditya Aladangady & Etienne Gagnon & Benjamin K. Johannsen & William B. Peterman, 2021. "Macroeconomic Implications of Inequality and Income Risk," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2021-073, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    29. Samuel Howorth & Domenico Lombardi & Pierre L. Siklos, 2019. "Together or Apart? Monetary Policy Divergences in the G4," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 30(2), pages 191-217, April.
    30. Taeyoung Doh, 2017. "Trend and Uncertainty in the Long-Term Real Interest Rate: Bayesian Exponential Tilting with Survey Data," Research Working Paper RWP 17-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    31. Richard H. Clarida, 2022. "The Federal Reserve's New Framework: Context and Consequences," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2022-001, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    32. Agnello, Luca & Castro, Vítor & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2022. "On the international co-movement of natural interest rates," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    33. Beechey, Meredith & Österholm, Pär & Poon, Aubrey, 2023. "Estimating the US trend short-term interest rate," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(PA).
    34. Saeed Zaman, 2021. "A Unified Framework to Estimate Macroeconomic Stars," Working Papers 21-23R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 15 Aug 2022.

  7. Elmar Mertens & James M. Nason, 2018. "Inflation and professional forecast dynamics: an evaluation of stickiness, persistence, and volatility," BIS Working Papers 713, Bank for International Settlements.

    Cited by:

    1. Juan Angel Garcia & Aubrey Poon, 2022. "Inflation trends in Asia: implications for central banks [Are Phillips curves useful for forecasting inflation?]," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 74(3), pages 671-700.
    2. Diegel, Max, 2022. "Time-varying credibility, anchoring and the Fed's inflation target," Discussion Papers 2022/9, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    3. Joshy Easaw & Roberto Golinelli, 2022. "Professionals Inflation Forecasts: The Two Dimensions Of Forecaster Inattentiveness [“Sectoral and aggregate inflation dynamics in the euro area”]," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 74(3), pages 701-720.
    4. Guido Ascari & Paolo Bonomolo & Qazi Haque, 2023. "The Long-Run Phillips Curve is ... a Curve," CAMA Working Papers 2023-37, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    5. Francesca Rondina, 2018. "Estimating unobservable inflation expectations in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Working Papers 1804E, University of Ottawa, Department of Economics.
    6. Guido Ascari & Luca Fosso, 2021. "The Inflation Rate Disconnect Puzzle: On the International Component of Trend Inflation and the Flattening of the Phillips Curve," Discussion Papers 2113, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    7. Joshua C.C. Chan & Todd E. Clark & Gary Koop, 2018. "A New Model of Inflation, Trend Inflation, and Long‐Run Inflation Expectations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(1), pages 5-53, February.
    8. Alberto Caruso & Laura Coroneo, 2023. "Does Real‐Time Macroeconomic Information Help to Predict Interest Rates?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(8), pages 2027-2059, December.
    9. Arnoud Stevens & Joris Wauters, 2018. "Is euro area lowflation here to stay ? Insights from a time-varying parameter model with survey data," Working Paper Research 355, National Bank of Belgium.
    10. Geraldine Dany-Knedlik & Juan Angel Garcia, 2018. "Monetary Policy and Inflation Dynamics in ASEAN Economies," IMF Working Papers 2018/147, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Marcela De Castro-Valderrama & Santiago Forero-Alvarado & Nicolás Moreno-Arias & Sara Naranjo-Saldarriaga, 2021. "Unraveling the Exogenous Forces Behind Analysts’ Macroeconomic Forecasts," Borradores de Economia 1184, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    12. McNeil, James, 2023. "Monetary policy and the term structure of inflation expectations with information frictions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    13. Mengheng Li & Siem Jan Koopman, 2021. "Unobserved components with stochastic volatility: Simulation‐based estimation and signal extraction," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(5), pages 614-627, August.
    14. Hur, Joonyoung, 2018. "Time-varying information rigidities and fluctuations in professional forecasters' disagreement," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 117-131.
    15. Karlyn Mitchell & Douglas K. Pearce, 2017. "Direct Evidence on Sticky Information from the Revision Behavior of Professional Forecasters," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 84(2), pages 637-653, October.
    16. Chen, Ji & Yang, Xinglin & Liu, Xiliang, 2022. "Learning, disagreement and inflation forecasting," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    17. Aristidou, Chrystalleni, 2018. "The meta-Phillips Curve: Modelling U.S. inflation in the presence of regime change," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 367-379.
    18. Ricardo Reis, 2020. "The People versus the Markets: A Parsimonious Model of Inflation Expectations," Discussion Papers 2033, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    19. Meyer-Gohde, Alexander & Tzaawa-Krenzler, Mary, 2023. "Sticky information and the Taylor principle," IMFS Working Paper Series 189, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    20. Todd E. Clark & Gergely Ganics & Elmar Mertens, 2022. "Constructing Fan Charts from the Ragged Edge of SPF Forecasts," Working Papers 22-36, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    21. Huw Dixon & Joshy Easaw & Saeed Heravi, 2020. "Forecasting inflation gap persistence: Do financial sector professionals differ from nonfinancial sector ones?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(3), pages 461-474, July.
    22. Monica Jain, 2018. "Sluggish Forecasts," Staff Working Papers 18-39, Bank of Canada.
    23. Bowen Fu, Ivan Mendieta-Muñoz, 2023. "Structural shocks and trend inflation," Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, University of Utah 2023_04, University of Utah, Department of Economics.
    24. Barrera, Carlos, 2022. "Les Prévisions des Prévisionnistes Professionnels? Perou, 2009-2017 [Professional Forecasters' Expectations? Peru, 2009-2017]," MPRA Paper 114420, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    25. Lasha Kavtaradze & Manouchehr Mokhtari, 2018. "Factor Models And Time†Varying Parameter Framework For Forecasting Exchange Rates And Inflation: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(2), pages 302-334, April.

  8. Todd E Clark & Michael W McCracken & Elmar Mertens, 2017. "Modeling Time-Varying Uncertainty of Multiple-Horizon Forecast Errors," BIS Working Papers 667, Bank for International Settlements.

    Cited by:

    1. Galvao, Ana Beatriz & Mitchell, James, 2020. "Real-Time Perceptions of Historical GDP Data Uncertainty," EMF Research Papers 35, Economic Modelling and Forecasting Group.
    2. Kajal Lahiri & Huaming Peng & Xuguang Simon Sheng, 2021. "Measuring Uncertainty of a Combined Forecast and Some Tests for Forecaster Heterogeneity," Working Papers 2021-005, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    3. Galvao, Ana Beatriz & Garratt, Anthony & Mitchell, James, 2020. "Does Judgment Improve Macroeconomic Density Forecasts?," EMF Research Papers 33, Economic Modelling and Forecasting Group.
    4. Carriero, Andrea & Clark, Todd E. & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Mertens, Elmar, 2022. "Addressing COVID-19 outliers in BVARs with stochastic volatility," Discussion Papers 13/2022, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    5. Knüppel, Malte & Schultefrankenfeld, Guido, 2019. "Assessing the uncertainty in central banks’ inflation outlooks," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1748-1769.
    6. Adrian, Tobias & Adams, Patrick & Boyarchenko, Nina & Giannone, Domenico, 2020. "Forecasting Macroeconomic Risks," CEPR Discussion Papers 14436, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Corradi, Valentina & Fosten, Jack & Gutknecht, Daniel, 2023. "Out-of-sample tests for conditional quantile coverage an application to Growth-at-Risk," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 236(2).
    8. Li, Zheng & Zeng, Jingjing & Hensher, David A., 2023. "An efficient approach to structural breaks and the case of automobile gasoline consumption in Australia," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    9. Li, Zheng & Zhou, Bo & Hensher, David A., 2022. "Forecasting automobile gasoline demand in Australia using machine learning-based regression," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PD).
    10. Weiqi Zhang & Huong Ha & Hui Ting Evelyn Gay, 2020. "Analysts’ forecasts between last consensus and earning announcement date," Journal of Financial Reporting and Accounting, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 18(4), pages 779-793, November.
    11. Oliver Grothe & Fabian Kachele & Fabian Kruger, 2022. "From point forecasts to multivariate probabilistic forecasts: The Schaake shuffle for day-ahead electricity price forecasting," Papers 2204.10154, arXiv.org.
    12. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2022. "Uncertainty Before and During COVID-19: A Survey," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0279, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
    13. Todd E. Clark & Gergely Ganics & Elmar Mertens, 2022. "What is the Predictive Value of SPF Point and Density Forecasts?," Working Papers 22-37, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    14. Kiss, Tamás & Mazur, Stepan & Nguyen, Hoang & Österholm, Pär, 2021. "Modelling the Relation between the US Real Economy and the Corporate Bond-Yield Spread in Bayesian VARs with non-Gaussian Disturbances," Working Papers 2021:9, Örebro University, School of Business.
    15. Mirela Miescu, 2019. "Uncertainty shocks in emerging economies," Working Papers 277077821, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    16. Knüppel, Malte, 2014. "Forecast-error-based estimation of forecast uncertainty when the horizon is increased," Discussion Papers 40/2014, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    17. Dibiasi, Andreas & Sarferaz, Samad, 2023. "Measuring macroeconomic uncertainty: A cross-country analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    18. Barbara Rossi, 2019. "Forecasting in the presence of instabilities: How do we know whether models predict well and how to improve them," Economics Working Papers 1711, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jul 2021.
    19. Barbara Rossi, 2019. "Identifying and Estimating the Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy in the Data: How to Do It and What Have We Learned?," Working Papers 1081, Barcelona School of Economics.
    20. Bas Scheer, 2022. "Addressing Unemployment Rate Forecast Errors in Relation to the Business Cycle," CPB Discussion Paper 434, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    21. Fabian Kruger & Hendrik Plett, 2022. "Prediction intervals for economic fixed-event forecasts," Papers 2210.13562, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2024.
    22. Sharpe, Steven A. & Sinha, Nitish R. & Hollrah, Christopher A., 2023. "The power of narrative sentiment in economic forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1097-1121.
    23. Reifschneider, David & Tulip, Peter, 2019. "Gauging the uncertainty of the economic outlook using historical forecasting errors: The Federal Reserve’s approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1564-1582.
    24. Grothe, Oliver & Kächele, Fabian & Krüger, Fabian, 2023. "From point forecasts to multivariate probabilistic forecasts: The Schaake shuffle for day-ahead electricity price forecasting," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    25. Simón Sosvilla-Rivero & María del Carmen Ramos-Herrera, 2018. "Inflation, real economic growth and unemployment expectations: an empirical analysis based on the ECB survey of professional forecasters," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(42), pages 4540-4555, September.

  9. Benjamin K. Johannsen & Elmar Mertens, 2016. "The Expected Real Interest Rate in the Long Run : Time Series Evidence with the Effective Lower Bound," FEDS Notes 2016-02-09, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    Cited by:

    1. Janet L. Yellen, 2016. "The Outlook, Uncertainty, and Monetary Policy : a speech at the Economic Club of New York, New York, New York, March 29, 2016," Speech 894, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Stanley Fischer, 2017. "The Low Level of Global Real Interest Rates : a speech at the Conference to Celebrate Arminio Fraga’s 60 Years, Casa das Garcas, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, July 31, 2017," Speech 966, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Stanley Fischer, 2016. "Reflections on Macroeconomics Then and Now : a speech at the \"Policy Challenges in an Interconnected World\" 32nd Annual National Association for Business Economics Economic Policy Conferen," Speech 892, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Janet L. Yellen, 2016. "Current Conditions and the Outlook for the U.S. Economy: a speech at The World Affairs Council of Philadelphia, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, June 6, 2016," Speech 900, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Etienne Gagnon & Benjamin K. Johannsen & J. David López-Salido, 2016. "Understanding the New Normal : The Role of Demographics," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-080, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Carrillo Julio A. & Elizondo Rocío & Rodríguez-Pérez Cid Alonso & Roldán-Peña Jessica, 2018. "What Determines the Neutral Rate of Interest in an Emerging Economy?," Working Papers 2018-22, Banco de México.
    7. Mariarosaria Comunale & Jonas Striaukas, 2017. "Unconventional monetary policy: interest rates and low inflation. A review of literature and methods," CEIS Research Paper 406, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 12 May 2017.
    8. Lael Brainard, 2016. "What Happened to the Great Divergence? a speech at the 2016 U.S. Monetary Policy Forum, New York, New York, February 26, 2016," Speech 891, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    9. Deepa Dhume Datta & Benjamin K. Johannsen & Hannah Kwon & Robert J. Vigfusson, 2018. "Oil, Equities, and the Zero Lower Bound," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-058, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    10. Lael Brainard, 2018. "What Do We Mean by Neutral and What Role Does It Play in Monetary Policy?: a speech at the Detroit Economic Club, Detroit, Michigan," Speech 1011, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    11. Lael Brainard, 2016. "An Update on the Outlook, Liquidity, and Resilience : a speech at the Institute of International Bankers Annual Washington Conference, Washington, D.C., March 7, 2016," Speech 893, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    12. Lael Brainard, 2016. "The \"New Normal\" and What It Means for Monetary Policy : a speech at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, Chicago, Illinois, September 12, 2016," Speech 907, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    13. Stanley Fischer, 2016. "Low Interest Rates : a speech at the 40th Annual Central Banking Seminar, sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York, New York, October 5, 2016," Speech 912, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    14. Lael Brainard, 2016. "The Economic Outlook and Implications for Monetary Policy: a speech at the Council on Foreign Relations, Washington, D.C., June 3, 2016," Speech 899, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

  10. Christine Garnier & Elmar Mertens & Edward Nelson, 2013. "Trend inflation in advanced economies," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-74, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    Cited by:

    1. Juan Angel Garcia & Aubrey Poon, 2022. "Inflation trends in Asia: implications for central banks [Are Phillips curves useful for forecasting inflation?]," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 74(3), pages 671-700.
    2. Bańbura, Marta & Leiva-Leon, Danilo & Menz, Jan-Oliver, 2021. "Do inflation expectations improve model-based inflation forecasts?," Working Paper Series 2604, European Central Bank.
    3. Mónica Correa-López & Matías Pacce & Kathi Schlepper, 2019. "Exploring trend inFLation dynamics in Euro Area countries," Working Papers 1909, Banco de España.
    4. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2015. "Core Inflation and Trend Inflation," NBER Working Papers 21282, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Luis Uzeda, 2016. "State Correlation and Forecasting: A Bayesian Approach Using Unobserved Components Models," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2016-632, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
    6. Marta Banbura & Andries van Vlodrop, 2018. "Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions with Time Variation in the Mean," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 18-025/IV, Tinbergen Institute.
    7. Joshua C.C. Chan & Todd E. Clark & Gary Koop, 2018. "A New Model of Inflation, Trend Inflation, and Long‐Run Inflation Expectations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(1), pages 5-53, February.
    8. Behera, Harendra Kumar & Patra, Michael Debabrata, 2022. "Measuring trend inflation in India," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    9. Magnus Reif, 2022. "Time‐Varying Dynamics of the German Business Cycle: A Comprehensive Investigation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(1), pages 80-102, February.
    10. Dany-Knedlik, Geraldine & Holtemöller, Oliver, 2017. "Inflation dynamics during the financial crisis in Europe: Cross-sectional identification of long-run inflation expectations," IWH Discussion Papers 10/2017, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    11. Kose,Ayhan & Matsuoka,Hideaki & Panizza,Ugo G. & Vorisek,Dana Lauren, 2019. "Inflation Expectations : Review and Evidence," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8785, The World Bank.
    12. Michael O’Grady, 2019. "Estimating the Output, Inflation and Unemployment Gaps in Ireland using Bayesian Model Averaging," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 50(1), pages 35-76.
    13. Na Guo & Bo Zhang & Jamie Cross, 2020. "Time-varying trend models for forecasting inflation in Australia," CAMA Working Papers 2020-99, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    14. Giacomo Sbrana & Andrea Silvestrini & Fabrizio Venditti, 2015. "Short term inflation forecasting: the M.E.T.A. approach," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1016, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    15. Sohei Kaihatsu & Jouchi Nakajima, 2015. "Has Trend Inflation Shifted?: An Empirical Analysis with a Regime-Switching Model," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 15-E-3, Bank of Japan.
    16. Eo, Yunjong & Lie, Denny, 2017. "The Role of Inflation Target Adjustment in Stabilization Policy," Working Papers 2017-06, University of Sydney, School of Economics, revised Jun 2019.
    17. Alex, Dony, 2021. "Anchoring of inflation expectations in large emerging economies," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 23(C).
    18. Bańbura, Marta & Bobeica, Elena, 2020. "PCCI – a data-rich measure of underlying inflation in the euro area," Statistics Paper Series 38, European Central Bank.
    19. Juan Angel Garcia & Aubrey Poon, 2018. "Trend Inflation and Inflation Compensation," IMF Working Papers 2018/154, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Richard K. Crump & Stefano Eusepi & Emanuel Moench & Bruce Preston, 2021. "The Term Structure of Expectations," Staff Reports 992, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    21. Juselius, Mikael & Takáts, Előd, 2021. "Inflation and demography through time," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    22. Fu, Bowen, 2023. "Measuring the trend real interest rate in a data-rich environment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    23. Na Guo & Bo Zhang & Jamie L. Cross, 2022. "Time‐varying trend models for forecasting inflation in Australia," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(2), pages 316-330, March.
    24. Christopher J. Erceg & James Hebden & Michael T. Kiley & J. David López-Salido & Robert J. Tetlow, 2018. "Some Implications of Uncertainty and Misperception for Monetary Policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-059, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    25. Mayes, David G. & Paloviita, Maritta & Virén, Matti, 2016. "EMU and the Anchoring of Inflation Expectations," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 69(4), pages 341-364.
    26. Kaihatsu, Sohei & Nakajima, Jouchi, 2018. "Has trend inflation shifted?: An empirical analysis with an equally-spaced regime-switching model," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 69-83.

  11. Andre Kurmann & Elmar Mertens, 2013. "Stock prices, news, and economic fluctuations: comment," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-08, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    Cited by:

    1. Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2014. "News Driven Business Cycles: Insights and Challenges," 2014 Meeting Papers 289, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Eric Sims & Andre Kurmann, 2017. "Revisions in Utilization-Adjusted TFP and Robust Identification of News Shocks," 2017 Meeting Papers 90, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. Sugaipov, Deni, 2022. "Estimating the impact of terms of trade news shocks on the Russian economy," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 66, pages 39-67.
    4. Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia & Marija Vukotić, 2020. "Patent-Based News Shocks," International Finance Discussion Papers 1277, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Pavitra Dhamija, 2020. "Economic Development and South Africa: 25 Years Analysis (1994 to 2019)," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 88(3), pages 298-322, September.
    6. Mr. Rabah Arezki & Valerie A Ramey & Liugang Sheng, 2015. "News Shocks in Open Economies: Evidence from Giant Oil Discoveries," IMF Working Papers 2015/209, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Hafedh Bouakez & Laurent Kemoe, 2023. "News Shocks, Business Cycles, and the Disinflation Puzzle," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(8), pages 2115-2151, December.
    8. Renato Faccini & Leonardo Melosi, 2019. "Pigouvian Cycles," 2019 Meeting Papers 977, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    9. Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia & Hacıoglu Hoke, Sinem, 2018. "When creativity strikes: news shocks and business cycle fluctuations," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 90381, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    10. Cascaldi-Garcia, Danilo & Vukoti, Marija & Zubairy, Sarah, 2023. "Innovation During Challenging Times," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1475, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    11. Ramey, VA, 2016. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Their Propagation," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt5mb353t2, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    12. Nicolas Reigl, 2023. "Noise shocks and business cycle fluctuations in three major European Economies," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(2), pages 603-657, February.
    13. Deokwoo Nam & Jian Wang, 2019. "Mood Swings and Business Cycles: Evidence from Sign Restrictions," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(6), pages 1623-1649, September.
    14. Lorenzo Bretscher & Andrea Tamoni & Aytek Malkhozov, 2019. "News Shocks and Asset Prices," 2019 Meeting Papers 100, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    15. Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia & Hacıoğlu Hoke, Sinem & Bluwstein, Kristina, 2020. "Patents, News, and Business Cycles," CEPR Discussion Papers 15062, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Danilo Cascaldi-Garcia, 2022. "Forecast Revisions as Instruments for News Shocks," International Finance Discussion Papers 1341, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    17. Di Casola, Paola & Sichlimiris, Spyridon, 2020. "TFP news, stock market booms and the business cycle: Revisiting the evidence with VEC models," Working Paper Series 388, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    18. Eric R. Sims, 2016. "Differences in Quarterly Utilization-Adjusted TFP by Vintage, with an Application to News Shocks," NBER Working Papers 22154, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

  12. Elmar Mertens, 2011. "Measuring the level and uncertainty of trend inflation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2011-42, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    Cited by:

    1. Christine Garnier & Elmar Mertens & Edward Nelson, 2013. "Trend inflation in advanced economies," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-74, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Benjamin K. Johannsen & Elmar Mertens, 2016. "A Time Series Model of Interest Rates With the Effective Lower Bound," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-033, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Juan Angel Garcia & Aubrey Poon, 2022. "Inflation trends in Asia: implications for central banks [Are Phillips curves useful for forecasting inflation?]," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 74(3), pages 671-700.
    4. Carlos Carvalho & Stefano Eusepi & Emanuel Moench & Bruce Preston, 2020. "Anchored inflation expectations," CAMA Working Papers 2020-25, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    5. Bańbura, Marta & Leiva-Leon, Danilo & Menz, Jan-Oliver, 2021. "Do inflation expectations improve model-based inflation forecasts?," Working Paper Series 2604, European Central Bank.
    6. Olesya Grishchenko & Sarah Mouabbi & Jean‐Paul Renne, 2019. "Measuring Inflation Anchoring and Uncertainty: A U.S. and Euro Area Comparison," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(5), pages 1053-1096, August.
    7. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2015. "Core Inflation and Trend Inflation," NBER Working Papers 21282, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Thomas Hasenzagl & Filippo Pellegrino & Lucrezia Reichlin & Giovanni Ricco, 2022. "A Model of the Fed's View on Inflation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(4), pages 686-704, October.
    9. Cogley, Timothy & Sargent, Thomas J. & Surico, Paolo, 2015. "Price-level uncertainty and instability in the United Kingdom," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 1-16.
    10. Kamber, Güneş & Wong, Benjamin, 2020. "Global factors and trend inflation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    11. Diegel, Max & Nautz, Dieter, 2020. "The role of long-term inflation expectations for the transmission of monetary policy shocks," Discussion Papers 2020/19, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    12. NAKAJIMA, Jouchi, 2023. "Estimating trend inflation in a regime-switching Phillips curve," Discussion Paper Series 750, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    13. Guido Ascari & Paolo Bonomolo & Qazi Haque, 2023. "The Long-Run Phillips Curve is ... a Curve," CAMA Working Papers 2023-37, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    14. Francesca Rondina, 2018. "Estimating unobservable inflation expectations in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Working Papers 1804E, University of Ottawa, Department of Economics.
    15. Joshua C.C. Chan & Yong Song, 2018. "Measuring Inflation Expectations Uncertainty Using High‐Frequency Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(6), pages 1139-1166, September.
    16. Mertens, Elmar, 2023. "Precision-based sampling for state space models that have no measurement error," Discussion Papers 25/2023, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    17. Aguiar-Conraria, Luís & Martins, Manuel M. F. & Soares, Maria Joana, 2019. "The Phillips Curve at 60: time for time and frequency," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 12/2019, Bank of Finland.
    18. Guido Ascari & Luca Fosso, 2021. "The Inflation Rate Disconnect Puzzle: On the International Component of Trend Inflation and the Flattening of the Phillips Curve," Discussion Papers 2113, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    19. Marta Banbura & Andries van Vlodrop, 2018. "Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions with Time Variation in the Mean," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 18-025/IV, Tinbergen Institute.
    20. Joshua C.C. Chan & Todd E. Clark & Gary Koop, 2018. "A New Model of Inflation, Trend Inflation, and Long‐Run Inflation Expectations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(1), pages 5-53, February.
    21. Nibbering, Didier & Paap, Richard & van der Wel, Michel, 2018. "What do professional forecasters actually predict?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 288-311.
    22. Francesco Bianchi & Giovanni Nicolo & Dongho Song, 2023. "Inflation and Real Activity over the Business Cycle," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-038, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    23. Arnoud Stevens & Joris Wauters, 2018. "Is euro area lowflation here to stay ? Insights from a time-varying parameter model with survey data," Working Paper Research 355, National Bank of Belgium.
    24. Metiu, Norbert & Prieto, Esteban, 2023. "The macroeconomic effects of inflation uncertainty," Discussion Papers 32/2023, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    25. Dany-Knedlik, Geraldine & Holtemöller, Oliver, 2017. "Inflation dynamics during the financial crisis in Europe: Cross-sectional identification of long-run inflation expectations," IWH Discussion Papers 10/2017, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    26. Kose,Ayhan & Matsuoka,Hideaki & Panizza,Ugo G. & Vorisek,Dana Lauren, 2019. "Inflation Expectations : Review and Evidence," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8785, The World Bank.
    27. Richard Ashley & Randal J. Verbrugge, 2019. "The Intermittent Phillips Curve: Finding a Stable (But Persistence-Dependent) Phillips Curve Model Specification," Working Papers 19-09R2, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 14 Feb 2023.
    28. Michael T. Kiley, 2023. "The Role of Wages in Trend Inflation: Back to the 1980s?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-022, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    29. Randal J. Verbrugge & Saeed Zaman, 2022. "Improving Inflation Forecasts Using Robust Measures," Working Papers 22-23R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 30 May 2023.
    30. James M. Nason & Gregor W. Smith, 2013. "Reverse Kalman filtering U.S. inflation with sticky professional forecasts," Working Papers 13-34, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    31. Sohei Kaihatsu & Jouchi Nakajima, 2015. "Has Trend Inflation Shifted?: An Empirical Analysis with a Regime-Switching Model," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 15-E-3, Bank of Japan.
    32. McNeil, James, 2023. "Monetary policy and the term structure of inflation expectations with information frictions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    33. Alex, Dony, 2021. "Anchoring of inflation expectations in large emerging economies," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 23(C).
    34. Yunjong Eo & Luis Uzeda & Benjamin Wong, 2022. "Understanding trend inflation through the lens of the goods and services sectors," CAMA Working Papers 2022-28, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    35. Mengheng Li & Siem Jan Koopman, 2021. "Unobserved components with stochastic volatility: Simulation‐based estimation and signal extraction," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(5), pages 614-627, August.
    36. Bańbura, Marta & Bobeica, Elena, 2020. "PCCI – a data-rich measure of underlying inflation in the euro area," Statistics Paper Series 38, European Central Bank.
    37. Diegel, Max & Nautz, Dieter, 2021. "Long-term inflation expectations and the transmission of monetary policy shocks: Evidence from a SVAR analysis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    38. Koester, Gerrit & Lis, Eliza & Nickel, Christiane & Osbat, Chiara & Smets, Frank, 2021. "Understanding low inflation in the euro area from 2013 to 2019: cyclical and structural drivers," Occasional Paper Series 280, European Central Bank.
    39. James M. Nason & Gregor W. Smith, 2013. "Measuring The Slowly Evolving Trend In Us Inflation With Professional Forecasts," Working Paper 1316, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    40. Chen, Ji & Yang, Xinglin & Liu, Xiliang, 2022. "Learning, disagreement and inflation forecasting," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    41. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2019. "Trend, Seasonal, and Sectoral Inflation in the Euro Area," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 847, Central Bank of Chile.
    42. Christian Garciga & Randal J. Verbrugge & Saeed Zaman, 2024. "The Effect of Component Disaggregation on Measures of the Median and Trimmed-Mean CPI," Working Papers 24-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    43. Randal J. Verbrugge & Saeed Zaman, 2021. "Whose Inflation Expectations Best Predict Inflation?," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 2021(19), pages 1-7, October.
    44. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2019. "Trend, Seasonal, and Sectoral Inflation in the Euro Area," Working Papers 2019-30, Princeton University. Economics Department..
    45. Clark, Todd E. & Doh, Taeyoung, 2014. "Evaluating alternative models of trend inflation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 426-448.
    46. Juan Angel Garcia & Aubrey Poon, 2018. "Trend Inflation and Inflation Compensation," IMF Working Papers 2018/154, International Monetary Fund.
    47. Todd E. Clark & Taeyoung Doh, 2011. "A Bayesian evaluation of alternative models of trend inflation," Research Working Paper RWP 11-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
    48. S. Boragan Aruoba, 2016. "Term structures of inflation expectations and real interest rates," Working Papers 16-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    49. Gáti, Laura, 2022. "Monetary policy & anchored expectations: an endogenous gain learning model," Working Paper Series 2685, European Central Bank.
    50. Huw Dixon & Joshy Easaw & Saeed Heravi, 2020. "Forecasting inflation gap persistence: Do financial sector professionals differ from nonfinancial sector ones?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(3), pages 461-474, July.
    51. Giri, Federico, 2022. "The relationship between headline, core, and energy inflation: A wavelet investigation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
    52. Elmar Mertens & James M Nason, 2015. "Inflation and Professional Forecast Dynamics: An Evaluation of Stickiness, Persistence, and Volatility," CAMA Working Papers 2015-06, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    53. S. Boragan Aruoba, 2014. "Term Structures of Inflation Expectations and Real Interest Rates: The Effects of Unconventional Monetary Policy," Staff Report 502, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    54. Marcelo Arbex & Sidney Caetano & Wilson Correa, 2018. "Macroeconomic Effects of Inflation Target Uncertainty Shocks," Working Papers 1804, University of Windsor, Department of Economics.
    55. Verbrugge, Randal & Zaman, Saeed, 2023. "The hard road to a soft landing: Evidence from a (modestly) nonlinear structural model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    56. Schmelzing, Paul, 2017. "Staff Working Paper No. 686: Eight centuries of the risk-free rate: bond market reversals from the Venetians to the ‘VaR shock’," Bank of England working papers 686, Bank of England.
    57. James Mitchell & Saeed Zaman, 2023. "The Distributional Predictive Content of Measures of Inflation Expectations," Working Papers 23-31, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    58. Aguiar-Conraria, Luís & Martins, Manuel M.F. & Soares, Maria Joana, 2023. "The Phillips curve at 65: Time for time and frequency," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    59. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2020. "Trend, Seasonal, and Sectorial Inflation in the Euro Area," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Gonzalo Castex & Jordi Galí & Diego Saravia (ed.),Changing Inflation Dynamics,Evolving Monetary Policy, edition 1, volume 27, chapter 9, pages 317-344, Central Bank of Chile.
    60. Bowen Fu, Ivan Mendieta-Muñoz, 2023. "Structural shocks and trend inflation," Working Paper Series, Department of Economics, University of Utah 2023_04, University of Utah, Department of Economics.
    61. Timothy Cogley & Thomas J. Sargent, 2014. "Measuring Price-Level Uncertainty and Instability in the U.S., 1850-2012," Working Papers 2014-33, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.
    62. Cecchetti, Stephen & Feroli, Michael & Hooper, Peter & Kashyap, Anil & Schoenholtz, Kermit L., 2017. "Deflating Inflation Expectations: The Implications of Inflation’s Simple Dynamics," CEPR Discussion Papers 11925, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    63. Hervé Le Bihan & Danilo Leiva-León & Matías Pacce, 2023. "Underlying inflation and asymetric risks," Working Papers 2319, Banco de España.
    64. Robert W. Rich & Randal J. Verbrugge & Saeed Zaman, 2022. "Adjusting Median and Trimmed-Mean Inflation Rates for Bias Based on Skewness," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 2022(05), pages 1-7, March.
    65. Kaihatsu, Sohei & Nakajima, Jouchi, 2018. "Has trend inflation shifted?: An empirical analysis with an equally-spaced regime-switching model," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 69-83.
    66. Saeed Zaman, 2021. "A Unified Framework to Estimate Macroeconomic Stars," Working Papers 21-23R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 15 Aug 2022.
    67. Lasha Kavtaradze & Manouchehr Mokhtari, 2018. "Factor Models And Time†Varying Parameter Framework For Forecasting Exchange Rates And Inflation: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(2), pages 302-334, April.

  13. Elmar Mertens, 2010. "Discreet Commitments and Discretion of Policymakers with Private Information," 2010 Meeting Papers 763, Society for Economic Dynamics.

    Cited by:

    1. Timothy Cogley & Christian Matthes & Argia M. Sbordone, 2011. "Optimal disinflation under learning," Staff Reports 524, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    2. Cogley, Timothy & Matthes, Christian & Sbordone, Argia M., 2015. "Optimized Taylor rules for disinflation when agents are learning," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 131-147.

  14. Elmar Mertens, 2010. "Managing beliefs about monetary policy under discretion," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2010-11, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    Cited by:

    1. Alexander Doser & Ricardo Nunes & Nikhil Rao & Viacheslav Sheremirov, 2017. "Inflation expectations and nonlinearities in the Phillips curve," Working Papers 17-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    2. Timothy Cogley & Christian Matthes & Argia M. Sbordone, 2011. "Optimal disinflation under learning," Staff Reports 524, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    3. Robert G. King & Yang K. Lu & Ernesto S. Pastén, 2008. "Managing Expectations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(8), pages 1625-1666, December.
    4. Nunes, Ricardo, 2008. "Delegation and Loose Commitment," MPRA Paper 11555, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Ricardo Nunes & Ali Ozdagli & Jenny Tang, 2022. "Interest Rate Surprises: A Tale of Two Shocks," Working Papers 22-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    6. Elmar Mertens, 2010. "Discreet Commitments and Discretion of Policymakers with Private Information," 2010 Meeting Papers 763, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. Thomas Lubik & Christian Matthes & Elmar Mertens, 2023. "Indeterminacy and Imperfect Information," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 49, pages 37-57, July.
    8. Robert King & Yang Lu & Ernesto Pastén, 2014. "Policy Design with Private Sector Skepticism in the Textbook New Keynesian Model," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 717, Central Bank of Chile.
    9. Givens, Gregory & Salemi, Michael, 2012. "Inferring monetary policy objectives with a partially observed state," MPRA Paper 39353, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Jenny Tang, 2013. "Uncertainty and the signaling channel of monetary policy," Working Papers 15-8, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    11. Christian Matthes, 2015. "Figuring Out the Fed—Beliefs about Policymakers and Gains from Transparency," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(1), pages 1-29, February.
    12. Cogley, Timothy & Matthes, Christian & Sbordone, Argia M., 2015. "Optimized Taylor rules for disinflation when agents are learning," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 131-147.

  15. Elmar Mertens, 2010. "Structural shocks and the comovements between output and interest rates," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2010-21, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    Cited by:

    1. Miguel Angel Santos, 2015. "The Right Fit for the Wrong Reasons: Real Business Cycle in an Oil-Dependent Economy," CID Working Papers 64, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    2. Guido Ascari & Qazi Haque & Leandro M. Magnusson & Sophocles Mavroeidis, 2021. "Empirical evidence on the Euler equation for investment in the US," Papers 2107.08713, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2022.
    3. Barsky, Robert B. & Sims, Eric R., 2011. "News shocks and business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 273-289.

  16. Elmar Mertens, 2010. "Are spectral estimators useful for implementing long-run restrictions in SVARs?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2010-09, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    Cited by:

    1. Christian Kascha & Karel Mertens, 2008. "Business cycle analysis and VARMA models," Working Paper 2008/05, Norges Bank.
    2. Christopher J. Gust & Robert J. Vigfusson, 2009. "The power of long-run structural VARs," International Finance Discussion Papers 978, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Mertens, Elmar, 2012. "Are spectral estimators useful for long-run restrictions in SVARs?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(12), pages 1831-1844.

  17. Philippe Bacchetta & Elmar Mertens & Eric VanvWincoop, 2006. "Predictability in Financial Markets: What Do Survey Expectations Tell Us?," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 06-15, Swiss Finance Institute, revised Jun 2006.

    Cited by:

    1. Giuseppe Ferrero & Andrea Nobili, 2009. "Futures Contract Rates as Monetary Policy Forecasts," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 5(2), pages 109-145, June.
    2. Stillwagon, Josh R., 2015. "Testing the expectations hypothesis with survey forecasts: The impacts of consumer sentiment and the zero lower bound in an I(2) CVAR," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 85-101.
    3. Chernov, Mikhail & Bauer, Michael, 2021. "Interest Rate Skewness and Biased Beliefs," CEPR Discussion Papers 16274, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Xue-Zhong He & Kai Li & Chuncheng Wang, 2018. "Time-varying economic dominance in financial markets: A bistable dynamics approach," Published Paper Series 2018-1, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
    5. Andreas Fuster & Benjamin Hebert & David Laibson, 2011. "Natural Expectations, Macroeconomic Dynamics, and Asset Pricing," NBER Working Papers 17301, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Klaus Adam & Sebastian Merkel, 2019. "Stock Price Cycles and Business Cycles," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2019_105, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    7. Nicola Gennaioli & Yueran Ma & Andrei Shleifer, 2016. "Expectations and Investment," Working Paper 250941, Harvard University OpenScholar.
    8. Paul Hubert & Giovanni Ricco, 2018. "Imperfect information in macroeconomics," Post-Print hal-03458122, HAL.
    9. Pierdzioch, Christian & Reitz, Stefan & Ruelke, Jan-Christoph, 2015. "Heteroeneous forecasters and nonlinear expectation formation in US stock market," FinMaP-Working Papers 29, Collaborative EU Project FinMaP - Financial Distortions and Macroeconomic Performance: Expectations, Constraints and Interaction of Agents.
    10. Beber, Alessandro & Breedon, Francis & Buraschi, Andrea, 2010. "Differences in beliefs and currency risk premiums," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(3), pages 415-438, December.
    11. Ćorić, Bruno & Pugh, Geoff, 2013. "Foreign direct investment and output growth volatility: A worldwide analysis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 260-271.
    12. Dick Dijk & Siem Jan Koopman & Michel Wel & Jonathan H. Wright, 2014. "Forecasting interest rates with shifting endpoints," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(5), pages 693-712, August.
    13. Francesco Bianchi & Sydney C. Ludvigson & Sai Ma, 2020. "Belief Distortions and Macroeconomic Fluctuations," NBER Working Papers 27406, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Brückbauer, Frank, 2022. "Do financial market experts know their theory? New evidence from survey data," ZEW Discussion Papers 20-092, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research, revised 2022.
    15. Ricardo De La O & Sean Myers, 2021. "Subjective Cash Flow and Discount Rate Expectations," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(3), pages 1339-1387, June.
    16. Cosmin L. Ilut, 2010. "Ambiguity Aversion: Implications for the Uncovered Interest Rate Parity Puzzle," Working Papers 10-53, Duke University, Department of Economics.
    17. Stefano Cassella & Huseyin Gulen, 2018. "Extrapolation Bias and the Predictability of Stock Returns by Price-Scaled Variables," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(11), pages 4345-4397.
    18. Barberis, Nicholas & Greenwood, Robin & Jin, Lawrence & Shleifer, Andrei, 2015. "X-CAPM: An extrapolative capital asset pricing model," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 1-24.
    19. Stefan Nagel & Zhengyang Xu, 2022. "Dynamics of Subjective Risk Premia," NBER Working Papers 29803, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Josh Stillwagon, 2013. "Are Risk Premia Related to Real Exchange Rate Swings? Survey Expectations and I(2) Trends," Working Papers 1318, Trinity College, Department of Economics.
    21. Maik Schmeling & Andreas Schrimpf & Sigurd A. M. Steffensen, 2022. "Monetary policy expectation errors," BIS Working Papers 996, Bank for International Settlements.
    22. Wright, Jonathan & Gürkaynak, Refet, 2010. "Macroeconomics and the Term Structure," CEPR Discussion Papers 8018, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    23. Francisco Barillas & Kristoffer Nimark, 2012. "Speculation, risk premia and expectations in the yield curve," Economics Working Papers 1337, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Nov 2013.
    24. Seongman Moon & Carlos Velasco, 2011. "The Forward Discount Puzzle: Identi cation of Economic Assumptions," Working Papers 1112, Nam Duck-Woo Economic Research Institute, Sogang University (Former Research Institute for Market Economy).
    25. Daniel Burren, 2010. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates in a New Keynesian Model with Time-Varying Macro Volatility," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 11(2), pages 277-299, November.
    26. Heiner Mikosch & Christopher Roth & Samad Sarferaz & Johannes Wohlfart, 2021. "Uncertainty and Information Acquisition: Evidence from Firms and Households," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 129, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    27. Young Se Kim & Gwi Hwan Seol, 2016. "Monetary Policy Regime Shifts and Uncovered Interest Parity Revisited: The Euro–US Dollar Exchange Rate," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 360-378, July.
    28. Eric Gaus & Arunima Sinha, 2015. "Characterizing Investor Expectations for Assets with Varying Risk," Working Papers 15-01, Ursinus College, Department of Economics.
    29. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2008. "What Can Survey Forecasts Tell Us About Informational Rigidities?," NBER Working Papers 14586, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    30. Adam, Klaus & Beutel, Johannes & Marcet, Albert, 2014. "Stock price booms and expected capital gains," Working Papers 14-12, University of Mannheim, Department of Economics.
    31. Josh Stillwagon, 2013. "The Excess Returns Puzzle in Currency Markets: Clues on Moving Forward," Working Papers 1313, Trinity College, Department of Economics.
    32. Christian D. Dick & Maik Schmeling & Andreas Schrimpf, 2010. "Macro Expectations, Aggregate Uncertainty, and Expected Term Premia," CREATES Research Papers 2010-49, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    33. Grisse, Christian & Nitschka, Thomas, 2015. "On financial risk and the safe haven characteristics of Swiss franc exchange rates," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 153-164.
    34. Lansing, Kevin J. & LeRoy, Stephen F. & Ma, Jun, 2022. "Examining the sources of excess return predictability: Stochastic volatility or market inefficiency?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 197(C), pages 50-72.
    35. Zihao Zhang & Stefan Zohren & Stephen Roberts, 2018. "DeepLOB: Deep Convolutional Neural Networks for Limit Order Books," Papers 1808.03668, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2020.
    36. Yoshiyuki Nakazono & Maiko Koga & Tomohiro Sugo, 2018. "Private Information and Analyst Coverage: Evidence from Firm Survey Data," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 18-E-17, Bank of Japan.
    37. Gene Birz & Sandip Dutta & Han Yu, 2022. "Economic forecasts, anchoring bias, and stock returns," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 51(1), pages 169-191, March.
    38. Adam, Klaus & Nagel, Stefan & Matveev, Dmitry, 2018. "Do Survey Expectations of Stock Returns Reflect Risk-Adjustments?," CEPR Discussion Papers 13213, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    39. Andrade, Sandro C. & Kohlscheen, Emanuel, 2010. "Pessimistic Foreign Investors and Turmoil in Emerging Markets: The Case of Brazil in 2002," Economic Research Papers 271181, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
    40. Park, Cyn-Young & Shin, Kwanho, 2023. "The Development of Local Currency Bond Markets and Uncovered Interest Rate Parity," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 677, Asian Development Bank.
    41. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert, 2017. "Exchange rate expectations and economic policy uncertainty," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 148-162.
    42. Markiewicz, Agnieszka & Pick, Andreas, 2014. "Adaptive learning and survey data," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 107(PB), pages 685-707.
    43. Wagner, Christian, 2009. "Risk-Premia, Carry-Trade Dynamics, and Economic Value of Currency Speculation," MPRA Paper 21125, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    44. Maggiori, Matteo & Ströbel, Johannes & Giglio, Stefano & Utkus, Stephen P., 2019. "Five Facts About Beliefs and Portfolios," CEPR Discussion Papers 13657, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    45. Ronald MacDonald & Lukas Menkhoff & Rafael R. Rebitzky, 2009. "Exchange Rate Forecasters' Performance: Evidence of Skill?," CESifo Working Paper Series 2615, CESifo.
    46. Craig Burnside & Bing Han & David Hirshleifer & Tracy Yue Wang, 2011. "Investor Overconfidence and the Forward Premium Puzzle," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 78(2), pages 523-558.
    47. Li, Kai, 2021. "Nonlinear effect of sentiment on momentum," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    48. Gregory Bauer & Antonio Diez de los Rios, 2012. "An International Dynamic Term Structure Model with Economic Restrictions and Unspanned Risks," Staff Working Papers 12-5, Bank of Canada.
    49. Yu-chin Chen & Kwok Ping Tsang & Wen Jen Tsay, 2010. "Home Bias in Currency Forecasts," Working Papers 272010, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    50. King, Michael R. & Osler, Carol L. & Rime, Dagfinn, 2013. "The market microstructure approach to foreign exchange: Looking back and looking forward," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 95-119.
    51. Josh R. Stillwagon, 2015. "Can the Consumption Capital Asset Pricing Model Account for Traders' Expected Currency Returns?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(5), pages 1044-1069, November.
    52. Robin Greenwood & Andrei Shleifer, 2014. "Expectations of Returns and Expected Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(3), pages 714-746.
    53. Granziera, Eleonora & Sihvonen, Markus, 2020. "Bonds, currencies and expectational errors," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 7/2020, Bank of Finland.
    54. Francis Breedon & Dagfinn Rime & Paolo Vital, 2010. "A Transaction Data Study of the Forward Bias Puzzle," Working Paper 2010/26, Norges Bank.
    55. Reitz, Stefan & Pierdzioch, Christian & Rülke, Jan-Christoph, 2015. "Nonlinear Expectation Formation in the U.S. Stock Market," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113210, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    56. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert, 2016. "The impact of uncertainty on professional exchange rate forecasts," Ruhr Economic Papers 637, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    57. Xu, Shaojun, 2023. "Behavioral asset pricing under expected feedback mode," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    58. Sarita Bunsupha, 2018. "Extrapolative Beliefs and Exchange Rate Markets," PIER Discussion Papers 84, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    59. Klaus Adam & Albert Marcet, 2010. "Booms and Busts in Asset Prices," IMES Discussion Paper Series 10-E-02, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    60. Stefanescu, Razvan & Dumitriu, Ramona, 2016. "Particularitǎţi ale evoluţiei variabilelor financiare [Some particularities of the financial variables evolution]," MPRA Paper 73481, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 02 Sep 2016.
    61. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2010. "Information Rigidity and the Expectations Formation Process: A Simple Framework and New Facts," NBER Working Papers 16537, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    62. Cavusoglu, Nevin & Goldberg, Michael D. & Stillwagon, Josh, 2021. "Currency returns and downside risk: Debt, volatility, and the gap from benchmark values," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    63. Xue-Zhong He & Kai Li & Chuncheng Wang, 2018. "Time-Varying Economic Dominance Through Bistable Dynamics," Research Paper Series 390, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    64. He, Xue-Zhong & Li, Youwei & Zheng, Min, 2019. "Heterogeneous agent models in financial markets: A nonlinear dynamics approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 135-149.
    65. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert, 2017. "Exchange rate expectations since the financial crisis: Performance evaluation and the role of monetary policy and safe haven," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 283-300.
    66. Rehim Kılıç, 2023. "Uncovered interest rate, overshooting, and predictability reversal puzzles in an emerging economy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-074, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    67. Pierdzioch, Christian & Reitz, Stefan & Ruelke, Jan-Christoph, 2015. "Nonlinear expectation formation in the U.S. stock market: Empirical evidence from the Livingston survey," Kiel Working Papers 1947 [rev.], Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    68. Da, Zhi & Huang, Xing & Jin, Lawrence J., 2021. "Extrapolative beliefs in the cross-section: What can we learn from the crowds?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(1), pages 175-196.
    69. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    70. Cakici, Nusret & Zaremba, Adam, 2023. "Recency bias and the cross-section of international stock returns," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    71. Kristoffer Nimark, 2009. "Speculative dynamics in the term structure of interest rates," Economics Working Papers 1194, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Sep 2012.
    72. Josh Stillwagon, 2014. "Reexamining what survey data say about currency risk and irrationality using the cointegrated VAR," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 34(3), pages 1631-1643.
    73. Jin, Lawrence J. & Sui, Pengfei, 2022. "Asset pricing with return extrapolation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(2), pages 273-295.
    74. Ibrahim Filiz & Jan René Judek & Marco Lorenz & Markus Spiwoks, 2021. "Sticky Stock Market Analysts," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-27, December.
    75. Joscha Beckmann & Robert L. Czudaj, 2023. "The role of expectations for currency crisis dynamics—The case of the Turkish lira," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(3), pages 625-642, April.
    76. Winkler, Fabian, 2020. "The role of learning for asset prices and business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 42-58.
    77. Kopányi, Dávid & Rabanal, Jean Paul & Rud, Olga A. & Tuinstra, Jan, 2019. "Can competition between forecasters stabilize asset prices in learning to forecast experiments?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    78. Sorge Marco M., 2020. "Computing sunspot solutions to rational expectations models with timing restrictions," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 20(2), pages 1-10, June.
    79. Josh R. Stillwagon, 2015. "Exchange Rate Dynamics and Forecast Errors about Persistently Trending Fundamentals," Working Papers 1501, Trinity College, Department of Economics.
    80. Chen, Qianying, 2011. "Exchange rate dynamics, expectations, and monetary policy," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2011,18, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    81. Francis Breedon & Dagfinn Rime & Paolo Vitale, 2016. "Carry Trades, Order Flow, and the Forward Bias Puzzle," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(6), pages 1113-1134, September.
    82. Petkova, Ralitsa, 2023. "Extrapolative beliefs about Bitcoin returns," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    83. Lothian, James R. & Koedijk, Kees & Mahieu, Ronald & Campbell, Rachel, 2007. "Irving Fisher, Expectational Errors, and the UIP Puzzle," CEPR Discussion Papers 6294, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    84. Han, Bing & Hirshleifer, David & Wang, Tracy Yue, 2005. "Investor Overconfidence and the Forward Discount Puzzle," Working Paper Series 2005-21, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
    85. Yang-Ho Park, 2019. "Information in Yield Spread Trades," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-025, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    86. Steve Furnagiev & Josh Stillwagon, 2015. "Subjective Currency Risk Premia and Deviations from Moving Averages," Working Papers 1506, Trinity College, Department of Economics.
    87. Beckmann, Joscha & Boonman, Tjeerd M., 2022. "Expectations, disagreement and exchange rate pressure," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    88. Kellard, Neil & Sarantis, Nicholas, 2008. "Can exchange rate volatility explain persistence in the forward premium?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 714-728, September.
    89. Frederik Kunze, 2020. "Predicting exchange rates in Asia: New insights on the accuracy of survey forecasts," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(2), pages 313-333, March.
    90. Nobuyuki Hanaki & Cars Hommes & Dávid Kopányi & Anita Kopányi-Peuker & Jan Tuinstra, 2023. "Forecasting returns instead of prices exacerbates financial bubbles," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 26(5), pages 1185-1213, November.
    91. Li, Kai & Liu, Jun, 2023. "Extrapolative asset pricing," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
    92. Lukas Buchheim & Sebastian Link, 2017. "The Effect of Disaggregate Information on the Expectation Formation of Firms," CESifo Working Paper Series 6768, CESifo.
    93. Giuseppe Ferrero & Andrea Nobili, 2008. "Short-term interest rate futures as monetary policy forecasts," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 681, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    94. Roberto Gómez‐Cram, 2022. "Late to Recessions: Stocks and the Business Cycle," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 77(2), pages 923-966, April.
    95. Veress, Aron & Kaiser, Lars, 2017. "Forecasting quality of professionals: Does affiliation matter?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 159-168.
    96. Kunze, Frederik, 2017. "Predicting exchange rates in Asia: New insights on the accuracy of survey forecasts," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 326, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    97. Bradley Jones, 2015. "Asset Bubbles: Re-thinking Policy for the Age of Asset Management," IMF Working Papers 2015/027, International Monetary Fund.
    98. Park, Yang-Ho, 2022. "Spread position as a leading economic indicator," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 59(PA).
    99. Silvija Vlah Jerić & Mihovil Anđelinović, 2019. "Evaluating Croatian stock index forecasts," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(4), pages 1325-1339, April.
    100. Valente, Giorgio, 2009. "International interest rates and US monetary policy announcements: Evidence from Hong Kong and Singapore," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 920-940, October.
    101. Beckmann, Joscha & Reitz, Stefan, 2018. "Information Rigidities and Exchange Rate Expectations," VfS Annual Conference 2018 (Freiburg, Breisgau): Digital Economy 181628, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    102. Karnaukh, Nina & Vokata, Petra, 2022. "Growth forecasts and news about monetary policy," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(1), pages 55-70.
    103. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2010. "Infrequent Portfolio Decisions: A Solution to the Forward Discount Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(3), pages 870-904, June.
    104. Gonzalo Cortazar & Cristobal Millard & Hector Ortega & Eduardo S. Schwartz, 2016. "Commodity Price Forecasts, Futures Prices and Pricing Models," NBER Working Papers 22991, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    105. Mark L. Egan & Alexander MacKay & Hanbin Yang, 2020. "Recovering Investor Expectations from Demand for Index Funds," NBER Working Papers 26608, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    106. Bouaddi, Mohammed & Moutanabbir, Khouzeima, 2023. "Rational distorted beliefs investor; which risk matters?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    107. MacDonald, Ronald & Menkhoff, Lukas & Rebitzky, Rafael R., 2009. "Exchange rate forecasters’ performance: evidence of skill?," SIRE Discussion Papers 2009-10, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    108. Jonathan H. Wright, 2008. "Term premiums and inflation uncertainty: empirical evidence from an international panel dataset," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-25, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    109. J. Benson Durham, 2013. "More on U.S. Treasury term premiums: spot and expected measures," Staff Reports 658, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    110. Alfred V Guender, 2015. "International Evidence on the Role of Monetary Policy in the Uncovered Interest Rate Parity Puzzle," Working Papers in Economics 15/15, University of Canterbury, Department of Economics and Finance.
    111. Juselius, Katarina & Stillwagon, Josh R., 2018. "Are outcomes driving expectations or the other way around? An I(2) CVAR analysis of interest rate expectations in the dollar/pound market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 93-105.
    112. Camous, Antoine & Van der Ghote, Alejandro, 2022. "Financial cycles under diagnostic beliefs," Working Paper Series 2659, European Central Bank.

  18. Elmar Mertens, 2005. "Puzzling Comovements between Output and Interest Rates? Multiple Shocks are the Answer," Working Papers 05.05, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.

    Cited by:

    1. Elmar Mertens, 2010. "Structural shocks and the comovements between output and interest rates," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2010-21, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

Articles

  1. Thomas Lubik & Christian Matthes & Elmar Mertens, 2023. "Indeterminacy and Imperfect Information," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 49, pages 37-57, July.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  2. Benjamin K. Johannsen & Elmar Mertens, 2021. "A Time‐Series Model of Interest Rates with the Effective Lower Bound," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(5), pages 1005-1046, August.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  3. Elmar Mertens & James M. Nason, 2020. "Inflation and professional forecast dynamics: An evaluation of stickiness, persistence, and volatility," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 11(4), pages 1485-1520, November.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  4. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken & Elmar Mertens, 2020. "Modeling Time-Varying Uncertainty of Multiple-Horizon Forecast Errors," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(1), pages 17-33, March.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  5. Elmar Mertens, 2016. "Managing Beliefs about Monetary Policy under Discretion," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(4), pages 661-698, June.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  6. Elmar Mertens, 2016. "Measuring the Level and Uncertainty of Trend Inflation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 98(5), pages 950-967, December.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  7. Christine Garnier & Elmar Mertens & Edward Nelson, 2015. "Trend Inflation in Advanced Economies," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 11(4), pages 65-136, September.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  8. Andr? Kurmann & Elmar Mertens, 2014. "Stock Prices, News, and Economic Fluctuations: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(4), pages 1439-1445, April.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  9. Mertens, Elmar, 2012. "Are spectral estimators useful for long-run restrictions in SVARs?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(12), pages 1831-1844.

    Cited by:

    1. Soccorsi, Stefano, 2016. "Measuring nonfundamentalness for structural VARs," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 86-101.
    2. Ufuk Devrim Demirel, 2015. "Identification of technology shocks using misspecified VARs," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 48(4), pages 1321-1349, November.
    3. Mikkel Plagborg‐Møller & Christian K. Wolf, 2021. "Local Projections and VARs Estimate the Same Impulse Responses," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(2), pages 955-980, March.

  10. Mertens, Elmar, 2010. "Structural shocks and the comovements between output and interest rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1171-1186, June.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  11. Bacchetta, Philippe & Mertens, Elmar & van Wincoop, Eric, 2009. "Predictability in financial markets: What do survey expectations tell us?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 406-426, April.
    See citations under working paper version above.

Software components

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