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Citations for "Measuring Business Cycles: A Modern Perspective"

by Diebold, Francis X & Rudebusch, Glenn D

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  1. Sebastian Edwards & Javier Gómez Biscarri & Fernando Pérez de Gracia, 2003. "Stock Market Cycles, Financial Liberalization and Volatility," Faculty Working Papers 08/03, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
  2. Chang-Jin Kim & Jeremy M. Piger & Richard Startz, 2007. "The Dynamic Relationship between Permanent and Transitory Components of U.S. Business Cycles," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(1), pages 187-204, 02.
  3. Konstantin Kholodilin & Vincent Wenxiong Yao, 2006. "Modelling the structural break in volatility," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(7), pages 417-422.
  4. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros & Pilar Poncela, 2012. "Extracting non-linear signals from several economic indicators," Working Papers 1202, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
  5. Sumru Altuğ & Melike Bildirici, 2010. "Business Cycles around the Globe: A Regime Switching Approach," Working Papers 0032, Yildiz Technical University, Department of Economics, revised Mar 2010.
  6. J. Polzehl & V. Spokoiny & C. Starica, 2004. "When did the 2001 recession really start?," Econometrics 0411017, EconWPA.
  7. Jose Cancelo, 2004. "Modeling the European cycle with factor structure and regime switching," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 10(2), pages 87-99, May.
  8. Chang-Jin Kim & Jeremy M. Piger, 2001. "Common stochastic trends, common cycles, and asymmetry in economic fluctuations," Working Papers 2001-014, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  9. Vincent, BODART & Konstantin, KHOLODILIN & Fati, SHADMAN-MEHTA, 2005. "Identifying and Forecasting the Turning Points of the Belgian Business Cycle with Regime-Switching and Logit Models," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) 2005006, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques.
  10. Furkan Emirmahmutoglu & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller & Tolga Omay, 2015. "Is Real Per Capita State Personal Income Stationary? New Nonlinear, Asymmetric Panel-Data Evidence," Working papers 2015-02, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
  11. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:5:y:2006:i:10:p:1-17 is not listed on IDEAS
  12. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2011. "Combination Schemes for Turning Point Predictions," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-123/4, Tinbergen Institute.
  13. Chang-Jin Kim & Charles Nelson, 1998. "A Bayesian Approach to Testing for Markov Switching in Univariate and Dynamic Factor Models," Working Papers 0059, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
  14. E. Andersson & D. Bock & M. Frisen, 2006. "Some statistical aspects of methods for detection of turning points in business cycles," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(3), pages 257-278.
  15. Paap, R. & Segers, R. & van Dijk, D.J.C., 2007. "Do leading indicators lead peaks more than troughs?," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2007-08, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  16. Ubilava, David, 2014. "On the Relationship between Financial Instability and Economic Performance: Stressing the Business of Nonlinear Modelling," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 170222, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  17. Martha Misas & María Teresa Ramírez, "undated". "Colombian economic growth under Markov switching regimes with endogenous transition probabilities," Borradores de Economia 425, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  18. E. Andersson, 2002. "Monitoring cyclical processes. A non-parametric approach," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(7), pages 973-990.
  19. Anusha, "undated". "Evaluating reliability of some symmetric and asymmetric univariate filters," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2015-030, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
  20. Drew Creal & Siem Jan Koopman & Eric Zivot, 2008. "The Effect of the Great Moderation on the U.S. Business Cycle in a Time-varying Multivariate Trend-cycle Model," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 08-069/4, Tinbergen Institute.
  21. Sensier, M. & van Dijk, D.J.C., 2001. "Short-term volatility versus long-term growth: evidence in US macroeconomic time series," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2001-11, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  22. Serena Ng & Jonathan H. Wright, 2013. "Facts and Challenges from the Great Recession for Forecasting and Macroeconomic Modeling," NBER Working Papers 19469, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  23. Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy M. Piger & Howard J. Wall & Christopher H. Wheeler, 2007. "The economic performance of cities: a Markov-switching approach," Working Papers 2006-056, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  24. van Dijk, Dick & Teräsvirta, Timo & Franses, Philip Hans, 2000. "Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models - A Survey of Recent Developments," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 380, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 17 Jan 2001.
  25. Cruz-Rodríguez, Alexis, 2004. "Un análisis del ciclo económico de la República Dominicana bajo cambios de régimen
    [Analysis of business cycle of the Dominican Republic using Markov Switching model]
    ," MPRA Paper 54352, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  26. Andrea Carriero & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2007. "A Comparison of Methods for the Construction of Composite Coincident and Leading Indexes for the UK," Working Papers 590, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  27. S. Boragan Aruoba & Francis X. Diebold & Chiara Scotti, 2008. "Real-Time Measurement of Business Conditions," NBER Working Papers 14349, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  28. Harm Bandholz & Michael Funke, 2003. "In Search of Leading Indicators of Economic Activity in Germany," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 20307, Hamburg University, Department of Economics.
  29. Gabriele Fiorentini & Alessandro Galesi & Enrique Sentana, 2014. "A Spectral Em Algorithm For Dynamic Factor Models," Working Papers wp2014_1411, CEMFI.
  30. Oleg Korenok & Stanislav Radchenko, 2004. "The Role of Permanent and Transitory Components in Business Cycle Volatility Moderation," Departmental Working Papers 200413, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  31. McKelvie, S. & Hall, Viv B., 2012. "Stylised facts for New Zealand business cycles: A post-1987 perspective," Working Paper Series 2364, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
  32. Chen, Shyh-Wei & Shen, Chung-Hua, 2006. "When Wall Street conflicts with Main Street--The divergent movements of Taiwan's leading indicators," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 317-339.
  33. João Valle e Azevedo, 2002. "Business Cycles: Cyclical Comovement Within the European Union in the Period 1960-1999. A Frequency Domain Approach," Working Papers w200205, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  34. Kholodilin Konstantin A., 2005. "Forecasting the German Cyclical Turning Points: Dynamic Bi-Factor Model with Markov Switching," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 225(6), pages 653-674, December.
  35. Kin-Yip Ho & Albert K. Tsui & Zhaoyong Zhang, 2013. "Conditional Volatility Asymmetry Of Business Cycles: Evidence From Four Oecd Countries," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 38(3), pages 33-56, September.
  36. Bellone, B. & Gautier, E. & Le Coent, S., 2005. "Les marchés financiers anticipent-ils les retournements conjoncturels?," Working papers 128, Banque de France.
  37. Konstantin A. Kholodilin, 2006. "Using the Dynamic Bi-Factor Model with Markov Switching to Predict the Cyclical Turns in the Large European Economies," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 554, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  38. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin, 2010. "Identifying business cycle turning points with sequential Monte Carlo methods: an online and real-time application to the Euro area," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1-2), pages 145-167.
  39. Peña, Daniel & Poncela, Pilar, 2000. "Forecasting with nostationary dynamic factor models," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 9959, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
  40. Mike Artis & Hans-Martin Krolzig & Juan Toro, 2004. "The European business cycle," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 56(1), pages 1-44, January.
  41. Scott, A. & Acemoglu, D., 1995. "Asymmetric Business Cycles: Theory and Time-series Evidence," Economics Series Working Papers 99173, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  42. Darné, O. & Ferrara, L., 2009. "Identification of slowdowns and accelerations for the euro area economy," Working papers 239, Banque de France.
  43. Zhu, Junjun & Xie, Shiyu, 2011. "Asymmetric Shocks, Long-term Bonds and Sovereign Default," MPRA Paper 28236, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  44. Gabriel Pérez-Quiros & Maximo Camacho & Pilar Poncela, 2010. "Green Shoots? Where, when and how?," Working Papers 2010-04, FEDEA.
  45. Katarzyna Maciejowska, 2010. "Estimation Methods Comparison of SVAR Models with a Mixture of Two Normal Distributions," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, CEJEME, vol. 2(4), pages 279-314, September.
  46. Shyh-Wei Chen, 2006. "Enhanced reliability of the leading indicator in identifying turning points in Taiwan? an evaluation," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 5(10), pages 1-17.
  47. Chang-Jin Kim & Jeremy M. Piger & Richard Startz, 2001. "Permanent and transitory components of business cycles: their relative importance and dynamic relationship," International Finance Discussion Papers 703, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  48. Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy M. Piger & Howard J. Wall, 2004. "Business cycle phases in U.S. states," Working Papers 2003-011, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  49. S. Boragan Aruoba & Francis X. Diebold, 2010. "Real-time macroeconomic monitoring: real activity, inflation, and interactions," Working Papers 10-5, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  50. Chang-Jin Kim & Chris Murray, 1999. "Permanent and Transitory Nature of Recessions," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 0041, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
  51. Nelson, Charles R & Piger, Jeremy & Zivot, Eric, 2001. "Markov Regime Switching and Unit-Root Tests," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(4), pages 404-415, October.
  52. Bai, Jushan, 1999. "Likelihood ratio tests for multiple structural changes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 299-323, August.
  53. Drew Creal & Siem Jan Koopman & Eric Zivot, 2010. "Extracting a robust US business cycle using a time-varying multivariate model-based bandpass filter," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 695-719.
  54. Benoit Bellone, 2004. "Une lecture probabiliste du cycle d’affaires américain," Econometrics 0407002, EconWPA, revised 28 Mar 2005.
  55. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros & Pilar Poncela, 2012. "Markov-switching dynamic factor models in real time," Working Papers 1205, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
  56. Richard Startz, 1998. "Growth States and Shocks," Working Papers 0064, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
  57. Waters, George A., 2007. "Regime changes, learning and monetary policy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 255-282, June.
  58. Jeremy J. Nalewaik, 2010. "The Income- and Expenditure-Side Estimates of U.S. Output Growth," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 41(1 (Spring), pages 71-127.
  59. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2008. "Introducing the EURO-STING: Short Term INdicator of Euro Area Growth," Working Papers 0807, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
  60. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Anandamayee Majumdar & Stephen M. Miller, 2012. "Was the Recent Downturn in US GDP Predictable?," Working Papers 1210, University of Nevada, Las Vegas , Department of Economics.
  61. Marcelle Chauvet & Fang Dong, 2004. "Leading indicators of country risk and currency crises: the Asian experience," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q 1, pages 25-37.
  62. Esther Fernández Galar & Javier Gómez Biscarri, 2003. "Revisiting the Ability of Interest Rate Spreads to Predict Recessions: Evidence for a," Faculty Working Papers 04/03, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
  63. Giancarlo Bruno & Edoardo Otranto, 2003. "Dating the Italian Business Cycle: A Comparison of Procedures," Econometrics 0312003, EconWPA.
  64. Yasutomo Murasawa & Roberto S. Mariano, 2004. "Constructing a Coincident Index of Business Cycles Without Assuming a One-Factor Model," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 710, Econometric Society.
  65. Diebold, Francis X. & Inoue, Atsushi, 2001. "Long memory and regime switching," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 131-159, November.
  66. Dijk, Dick van & Franses, Philip Hans, 1999. "Modeling Multiple Regimes in the Business Cycle," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 3(03), pages 311-340, September.
  67. Robin L. Lumsdaine & Eswar S. Prasad, 2003. "Identifying the Common Component of International Economic Fluctuations: A New Approach," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(484), pages 101-127, January.
  68. Muriel Nguiffo-Boyom, 2006. "Un indicateur de retournement conjoncturel pour la France : une application du modèle à facteur avec changements de régimes," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 172(1), pages 101-114.
  69. Potter Simon M., 2000. "A Nonlinear Model of the Business Cycle," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 4(2), pages 1-11, July.
  70. Diebold, Giorgianni, & Inoue, "undated". "Stamp 5.0: A Review," Home Pages _058, University of Pennsylvania.
  71. Bessec, M. & Bouabdallah, O., 2012. "Forecasting GDP over the business cycle in a multi-frequency and data-rich environment," Working papers 384, Banque de France.
  72. Escañuela Romana, Ignacio, 2016. "Randomness, Determinism and Undecidability in the Economic cycle Theory," MPRA Paper 74646, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  73. Mark W. Watson, 2005. "Commentary on "what's real about the business cycle?"," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 453-458.
  74. Cruz-Rodríguez, Alexis, 2005. "Ciclos Económicos Sincronizados y Uniones Monetarias en Centroamérica y la República Dominicana
    [Business Cycles Synchronisation and Monetary Union in Central American and the Dominican Republic]
    ," MPRA Paper 72104, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  75. Pami Dua & Vineeta Sharma, 2013. "Measurement And Patterns Of International Synchronization-- A Spectral Approach," Working papers 224, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
  76. Marcelle Chauvet & James D. Hamilton, 2005. "Dating Business Cycle Turning Points," NBER Working Papers 11422, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  77. Andrea Carriero & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2011. "Sectoral Survey‐based Confidence Indicators for Europe," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 73(2), pages 175-206, 04.
  78. Bruno, Giancarlo & Otranto, Edoardo, 2008. "Models to date the business cycle: The Italian case," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 899-911, September.
  79. Konstantin Kholodilin, 2001. "Latent Leading and Coincident Factors Model with Markov-Switching Dynamics," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(7), pages 1-13.
  80. Filis, George, 2010. "Macro economy, stock market and oil prices: Do meaningful relationships exist among their cyclical fluctuations?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 877-886, July.
  81. Allen, P. Geoffrey & Morzuch, Bernard J., 2006. "Twenty-five years of progress, problems, and conflicting evidence in econometric forecasting. What about the next 25 years?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 475-492.
  82. Andrea Carriero & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2007. "Monitoring the Economy of the Euro Area: A Comparison of Composite Coincident Indexes," Working Papers 319, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  83. Chen, Shyh-Wei, 2007. "Measuring business cycle turning points in Japan with the Markov Switching Panel model," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 76(4), pages 263-270.
  84. Fatás, Antonio & Mihov, Ilian, 2013. "Recoveries," CEPR Discussion Papers 9551, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  85. Don Harding & Adrian Pagan, 1999. "Dissecting the Cycle," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp1999n13, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
  86. Kin-Yip Ho & Albert K. Tsui & Zhaoyong Zhang, 2009. "Volatility Dynamics of the UK Business Cycle: a Multivariate Asymmetric Garch Approach," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 117, pages 31-46.
  87. Yagi, Tomoyuki & Takahashi, Masako, 2015. "Non-linear transition mechanism of production and Japanese development," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 34-47.
  88. João Paulo Martin Faleiros & Denisard Cnéio de Oliveira Alves, 2006. "Não Linearidade Nos Ciclos De Negócios: Modelo Auto-Regressivo “Smooth Transition” Para O Índice Geral De Produção Industrial Brasileiro E Bens De Capital," Anais do XXXIV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 34th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 10, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
  89. Benoît Bellone, 2006. "Une lecture probabiliste du cycle d’affaires américain," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 172(1), pages 63-81.
  90. Francis X. Diebold, 1997. "The Past, Present, and Future of Macroeconomic Forecasting," NBER Working Papers 6290, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  91. Hinze, Jörg, 2003. "Prognoseleistung von Frühindikatoren : Die Bedeutung von Frühindikatoren für Konjunkturprognosen - Eine Analyse für Deutschland," HWWA Discussion Papers 236, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA).
  92. Agne Reklaite, 2011. "Coincident, leading and recession indexes for the Lithuanian economy," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 11(1), pages 91-108, July.
  93. Moradi, Alireza, 2016. "Modeling Business Cycle Fluctuations through Markov Switching VAR:An Application to Iran," MPRA Paper 73608, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  94. Marjan Petreski, 2010. "An Overhaul of a Doctrine: Has Inflation Targeting Opened a New Era in Developing-country Peggers?," FIW Working Paper series 057, FIW.
  95. Yong Zeng & Shu Wu, 2004. "A General Equilibrium Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates under Regime-switching Risk," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 304, Econometric Society.
  96. Konstantin A. KHOLODILIN, 2002. "Unobserved Leading and Coincident Common Factors in the Post-War U.S. Business Cycle," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2002008, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
  97. David E Allen & Michael McAleer & Robert J Powell & Abhay K Singh, 2013. "Nonparametric Multiple Change Point Analysis of the Global Financial Crisis," KIER Working Papers 866, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
  98. Marcelo Savino Portugal & Igor Alexandre Clemente de Morais, 2004. "Business Cycle In The Industrial Production Of Brazilian States," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 23, Econometric Society.
  99. Sinchan Mitra & Tara M. Sinclair, . "Output Fluctuations in the G-7: An Unobserved Components Approach," MRG Discussion Paper Series 2509, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
  100. Marjan Petreski, 2011. "A Markov Switch to Inflation Targeting in Emerging Market Peggers with a Focus on the Czech Republic, Poland and Hungary," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 3, pages 57-75.
  101. Stefan Gerlach & Matthew S. Yiu, 2004. "A Dynamic Factor Model for Current-Quarter Estimates of Economic Activity in Hong Kong," Working Papers 162004, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  102. Francis X. Diebold / Kamil Yilmaz, 2009. "Equity Market Spillovers in the Americas," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 12(2), pages 55-65, August.
  103. Marcelle Chauvet & Jeremy M. Piger, 2003. "Identifying business cycle turning points in real time," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 47-61.
  104. Jan R. Kim & Keunsuk Chung, 2016. "The role of house price in the US business cycle," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(1), pages 71-92, August.
  105. Siem Jan Koopman & Joao Valle e Azevedo, 2003. "Measuring Synchronisation and Convergence of Business Cycles," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 03-052/4, Tinbergen Institute.
  106. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:3:y:2002:i:5:p:1-15 is not listed on IDEAS
  107. Paap, R. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 1999. "Do the US and Canada have a common nonlinear cycle in unemployment?," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 9907-/A, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  108. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin, 2008. "Identifying Business Cycle Turning Points with Sequential Monte Carlo Methods," Working Papers 0815, University of Brescia, Department of Economics.
  109. repec:hal:journl:halshs-00423890 is not listed on IDEAS
  110. Gerardo Alberto Villa Durán, 2014. "Un índice coincidente para Medellín," ENSAYOS SOBRE ECONOMÍA REGIONAL (ESER) 013858, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ECONOMÍA REGIONAL.
  111. Alvaro Cencini, 2012. "Is there a common cause to economic and financial crises?," Chapters, in: Modern Monetary Macroeconomics, chapter 7, pages 193-217 Edward Elgar Publishing.
  112. Wang, Jin-ming & Gao, Tie-mei & McNown, Robert, 2009. "Measuring Chinese business cycles with dynamic factor models," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 89-97, March.
  113. Strohsal, Till & Proaño, Christian R. & Wolters, Jürgen, 2015. "Characterizing the financial cycle: Evidence from a frequency domain analysis," Discussion Papers 22/2015, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  114. Tan, Siow-Hooi & Habibullah, Muzafar Shah, 2007. "Business cycles and monetary policy asymmetry: An investigation using Markov-switching models," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 380(C), pages 297-306.
  115. Chinhui Juhn & Simon Potter & Marcelle Chauvet, 2002. "Markov switching in disaggregate unemployment rates," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 205-232.
  116. Billio Monica & Casarin Roberto, 2011. "Beta Autoregressive Transition Markov-Switching Models for Business Cycle Analysis," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 15(4), pages 1-32, September.
  117. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2002. "Dissecting the cycle: a methodological investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 365-381, March.
  118. Ludmila Fadejeva & Aleksejs Melihovs, 2008. "The Baltic States and Europe: Common Factors of Economic Activity," Working Papers 2008/03, Latvijas Banka.
  119. Kajal Lahiri & Wenxiong Yao & Peg Young, 2003. "Cycles in the Transportation Sector and the Aggregate Economy," Discussion Papers 03-14, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
  120. Konstantin A. Kholodilin, 2005. "Forecasting the Turns of German Business Cycle: Dynamic Bi-factor Model with Markov Switching," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 494, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  121. Carmen Reinhart & Vincent Reinhart, 2009. "Capital Flow Bonanzas: An Encompassing View of the Past and Present," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2008, pages 9-62 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  122. Oleg Korenok & Stanislav Radchenko, 2004. "Monetary Policy Effect on the Business Cycle Fluctuations: Output vs. Index Measures of the Cycle," Macroeconomics 0409015, EconWPA, revised 20 Sep 2004.
  123. Franses Philip Hans & Paap Richard, 2013. "Common large innovations across nonlinear time series," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 17(3), pages 251-263, May.
  124. Clements, M.C. & Krolzig, H.-M., 2001. "Modelling Business Cycle Features Using Switching Regime Models," Economics Series Working Papers 9958, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  125. Michael T. Owyang & Abbigail J. Chiodo, 2002. "Duration dependence in monetary policy: international evidence," Working Papers 2002-021, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  126. Jammazi, Rania & Aloui, Chaker, 2010. "Wavelet decomposition and regime shifts: Assessing the effects of crude oil shocks on stock market returns," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 1415-1435, March.
  127. Maciejowska, Katarzyna, 2013. "Assessing the number of components in a normal mixture: an alternative approach," MPRA Paper 50303, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  128. Gabriele Fiorentini & Enrique Sentana, 2013. "Dynamic Specification Tests For Dynamic Factor Models," Working Papers wp2013_1306, CEMFI.
  129. Luke Hartigan, 2015. "Changes in the Factor Structure of the U.S. Economy: Permanent Breaks or Business Cycle Regimes?," Discussion Papers 2015-17, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
  130. repec:kap:iaecre:v:10:y:2004:i:2:p:87-99 is not listed on IDEAS
  131. Escañuela Romana, Ignacio, 2016. "Azar, Determinismo e Indecidibilidad en la Teoría del Ciclo Económico
    [Randomness, Determinism and Undecidability in the Business Cycle Theory]
    ," MPRA Paper 72978, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  132. S. Boragan Aruoba & Francis X. Diebold & Chiara Scotti, 2007. "Real-Time Measurement of Business Conditions, Second Version," PIER Working Paper Archive 08-011, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 04 Apr 2008.
  133. Leiva-Leon, Danilo, 2013. "Real vs. Nominal Cycles: A Multistate Markov-Switching Bi-Factor Approach," MPRA Paper 54456, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  134. Harm Bandholz, 2005. "New Composite Leading Indicators for Hungary and Poland," Ifo Working Paper Series Ifo Working Paper No. 3, Ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
  135. Krolzig, Hans-Martin, 2001. "Business cycle measurement in the presence of structural change: international evidence," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 349-368.
  136. Strohsal, Till & Proaño, Christian R. & Wolters, Jürgen, 2015. "Characterizing the Financial Cycle: Evidence from a Frequency Domain Analysis," Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113143, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  137. Francisco Nadal De Simone, 2001. "Inflation Forecasting in Chile," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 4(3), pages 59-85, December.
  138. Jacob Boudoukh & Matthew Richardson & Tom Smith & Robert Whitelaw, 1999. "Regime Shifts and Bond Returns," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 99-010, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
  139. Chauvet, Marcelle & Potter, Simon, 2013. "Forecasting Output," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier.
  140. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Anandamayee Majumdar & Stephen M. Miller, 2015. "Was the recent downturn in US real GDP predictable?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(28), pages 2985-3007, June.
  141. Grace H.Y. Lee, 2009. "Aggregate Shocks Decomposition For Eight East Asian Countries," Monash Economics Working Papers 17-09, Monash University, Department of Economics.
  142. Christopher L. Gilbert & Duo Qin, 2007. "Representation in Econometrics: A Historical Perspective," Working Papers 583, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  143. Laura Brown & Saeed Moshiri, 2004. "Unemployment variation over the business cycles: a comparison of forecasting models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(7), pages 497-511.
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  150. Javier Gómez Biscarri, 2002. "Dating Recessions from Industrial Production Indexes: An Analysis for Europe and the US," Faculty Working Papers 05/02, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
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  156. Sarlan, Haldun, 2001. "Cyclical aspects of business cycle turning points," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 369-382.
  157. Francisco J. Goerlich-Gisbert, 1999. "Shocks agregados versus shocks sectoriales. Un análisis factorial dinámico," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 23(1), pages 27-53, January.
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  165. Javier De Peña & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2002. "Do Spanish Stock Market Prices Follow a Random Walk?," Faculty Working Papers 01/02, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
  166. Christian Schulz, 2008. "Forecasting economic activity for Estonia : The application of dynamic principal component analyses," Bank of Estonia Working Papers 2008-02, Bank of Estonia, revised 30 Oct 2008.
  167. Benoit Bellone & David Saint-Martin, 2004. "Detecting Turning Points with Many Predictors through Hidden Markov Models," Econometrics 0407001, EconWPA.
  168. Yasutomo Murasawa, 2009. "Do coincident indicators have one-factor structure?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 339-365, May.
  169. Curran, Declan & Funke, Michael, 2006. "Taking the temperature : forecasting GDP growth for mainland in China," BOFIT Discussion Papers 6/2006, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  170. Konstantin A. KHOLODILIN, 2001. "Markov-Switching Common Dynamic Factor Model with Mixed-Frequency Data," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2001020, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
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