IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/e/c/poz29.html
   My authors  Follow this author

Ataman Ozyildirim

Citations

Many of the citations below have been collected in an experimental project, CitEc, where a more detailed citation analysis can be found. These are citations from works listed in RePEc that could be analyzed mechanically. So far, only a minority of all works could be analyzed. See under "Corrections" how you can help improve the citation analysis.

Working papers

  1. Ataman Ozyildirim & Harry Wu, 2013. "Modeling Trends, Cyclical Movements and Turning Points of the Chinese Economy," Economics Program Working Papers 13-02, The Conference Board, Economics Program.

    Cited by:

    1. Roberto Casarin & Komla Mawulom Agudze & Monica Billio & Eric Girardin, 2014. "Growth-cycle phases in China�s provinces: A panel Markov-switching approach," Working Papers 2014:19, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    2. Harry X. Wu & Eric Girardin, 2016. "The ‘new’ normal is ‘old’ in China: Very late catching up and return to the (pre-WTO) old normal," EcoMod2016 9721, EcoMod.

  2. Vivian Chen & Ben Cheng & Gad Levanon & Ataman Ozyildirim & Bart van Ark, 2012. "Projecting Global Growth," Economics Program Working Papers 12-02, The Conference Board, Economics Program.

    Cited by:

    1. Bart van Ark & Vivian Chen & Kirsten Jäger, 2013. "European Productivity Growth Since 2000 and Future Prospects," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 25, pages 65-83, Spring.
    2. Overmeer, Wim & Jaeger, Kirsten & Colijn, Bert & Chen, Vivian & Ark, Bart van & Timmer, Marcel, 2013. "Recent Changes in Europe’s Competitive Landscape and Medium-Term Perspectives: How the Sources of Demand and Supply Are Shaping Up," GGDC Research Memorandum GD-134, Groningen Growth and Development Centre, University of Groningen.
    3. Lucian Liviu Albu, 2014. "A model to estimate macroeconomic parameters for growth in EU," Working Papers of Institute for Economic Forecasting 141222, Institute for Economic Forecasting.

  3. Gad Levanon & Jean-Claude Manini & Ataman Ozyildirim & Brian Schaitkin & Jennelyn Tanchua, 2011. "Using a Leading Credit Index to Predict Turning Points in the U.S. Business Cycle," Economics Program Working Papers 11-05, The Conference Board, Economics Program.

    Cited by:

    1. Weiling Liu & Emanuel Moench, 2014. "What predicts U.S. recessions?," Staff Reports 691, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    2. Lahiri, Kajal & Yang, Liu, 2016. "Asymptotic variance of Brier (skill) score in the presence of serial correlation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 125-129.

  4. Gad Levanon & Ataman Ozyildirim & Brian Schaitkin & Justyna Zabinska, 2011. "Comprehensive Benchmark Revisions for The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® for the United States," Economics Program Working Papers 11-06, The Conference Board, Economics Program.

    Cited by:

    1. Abberger, Klaus & Graff, Michael & Siliverstovs, Boriss & Sturm, Jan-Egbert, 2018. "Using rule-based updating procedures to improve the performance of composite indicators," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 127-144.
    2. Kajal Lahiri & Liu Yang, 2015. "A Non-linear Forecast Combination Procedure for Binary Outcomes," CESifo Working Paper Series 5175, CESifo.
    3. Boriss Siliverstovs, 2015. "Dissecting the purchasing managers' index," KOF Working papers 15-376, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    4. Levanon, Gad & Manini, Jean-Claude & Ozyildirim, Ataman & Schaitkin, Brian & Tanchua, Jennelyn, 2015. "Using financial indicators to predict turning points in the business cycle: The case of the leading economic index for the United States," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 426-445.

  5. Bill Adams & Pieter Bottelier & Ataman Ozyildirim & Jing Sima-Friedman, 2010. "On the Selection of Leading Economic Indicators for China," Economics Program Working Papers 10-02, The Conference Board, Economics Program.

    Cited by:

    1. Peng Bin, 2016. "Dynamic Development of Regional Disparity in Mainland China: An Experimental Study Based on a Multidimensional Index," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(12), pages 1-28, December.
    2. Li, Cheng, 2011. "Consumer expectation and output growth: The case of China," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 113(3), pages 298-300.
    3. Levanon, Gad & Manini, Jean-Claude & Ozyildirim, Ataman & Schaitkin, Brian & Tanchua, Jennelyn, 2015. "Using financial indicators to predict turning points in the business cycle: The case of the leading economic index for the United States," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 426-445.

  6. Ataman Ozyildirim & Brian Schaitkin & Victor Zarnowitz, 2008. "Business Cycles in the Euro Area Defined with Coincident Economic Indicators and Predicted with Leading Economic Indicators," Economics Program Working Papers 08-04, The Conference Board, Economics Program.

    Cited by:

    1. Emília Jakubíková & Andrea Tkáčová & Anna Bánociová, 2014. "Kompozitné predstihové indikátory hospodárskych cyklov krajín V4 a ich komparácia s CLI Eurostatu a OECD [Composite Leading Indicators of Economic Cycles of V4 Countries and their Comparison to the," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2014(2), pages 194-215.
    2. Heij, Christiaan & van Dijk, Dick & Groenen, Patrick J.F., 2011. "Real-time macroeconomic forecasting with leading indicators: An empirical comparison," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 466-481, April.
    3. Smimou, K. & Khallouli, W., 2015. "Does the Euro affect the dynamic relation between stock market liquidity and the business cycle?," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 125-153.
    4. Deimena KIYAK & Erika ŽUPERKIENĖ, 2017. "Expression Of The Transport Sector Operational Efficiency Evaluation Methodology (Trends) At Different Stages Of The Economic Cycle," Transport Problems, Silesian University of Technology, Faculty of Transport, vol. 12(4), pages 109-118, December.
    5. Heij, C. & van Dijk, D.J.C. & Groenen, P.J.F., 2009. "Macroeconomic forecasting with real-time data: an empirical comparison," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2009-27, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    6. Andrea Tkáčová, 2014. "Composite Coincident Indicator of the Czech Business Cycle [Kompozitný súbežný indikátor hospodárskeho cyklu českej ekonomiky]," Acta Oeconomica Pragensia, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2014(3), pages 45-60.
    7. Andreas Brunhart, 2019. "Der neue Konjunkturindex „KonSens“: Ein gleichlaufender, vierteljährlicher Sammelindikator für Liechtenstein," Arbeitspapiere 62, Liechtenstein-Institut.
    8. Carstensen, Kai & Wohlrabe, Klaus & Ziegler, Christina, 2011. "Predictive ability of business cycle indicators under test: A case study for the Euro area industrial production," Munich Reprints in Economics 19953, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    9. Kiss, Tamás & Österholm, Pär, 2020. "Fat tails in leading indicators," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    10. Petr Rozmahel & Ladislava Issever Grochová & Marek Litzman, 2014. "The Effect of Asymmetries in Fiscal Policy Conducts on Business Cycle Correlation in the EU. WWWforEurope Working Paper No. 62," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 47249, April.
    11. Scarpel, Rodrigo Arnaldo, 2014. "A demand trend change early warning forecast model for the city of São Paulo multi-airport system," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 23-32.
    12. Ataman Ozyildirim & Brian Schaitkin & Victor Zarnowitz, 2008. "Business Cycles in the Euro Area Defined with Coincident Economic Indicators and Predicted with Leading Economic Indicators," Economics Program Working Papers 08-04, The Conference Board, Economics Program.
    13. Liesbeth Dries & Pavel Ciaian & d’Artis Kancs, 2012. "Job Creation and Job Destruction in EU Agriculture," LICOS Discussion Papers 31512, LICOS - Centre for Institutions and Economic Performance, KU Leuven.
    14. Donadelli, Michael & Paradiso, Antonio & Riedel, Max, 2015. "A novel ex-ante leading indicator for the EU industrial production," SAFE Working Paper Series 118, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    15. Marco Rubilar-González & Gabriel Pino, 2018. "Are Euro-Area expectations about recession phases effective to anticipate consequences of economic crises?," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 9(2), pages 141-161, June.
    16. Donadelli, Michael & Paradiso, Antonio & Riedel, Max, 2016. "A quasi real-time leading indicator for the EU industrial production," SAFE Working Paper Series 118 [rev.], Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE, revised 2016.
    17. Anna Pestova, 2015. "Leading Indicators of the Business Cycle: Dynamic Logit Models for OECD Countries and Russia," HSE Working papers WP BRP 94/EC/2015, National Research University Higher School of Economics.

  7. Feng Guo & Ataman Ozyildirim & Victor Zarnowitz, 2008. "On the Measurement and Analysis of Aggregate Economic Activity for China: The Coincident Economic Indicators Approach," Economics Program Working Papers 08-01, The Conference Board, Economics Program.

    Cited by:

    1. Roberto Casarin & Komla Mawulom Agudze & Monica Billio & Eric Girardin, 2014. "Growth-cycle phases in China�s provinces: A panel Markov-switching approach," Working Papers 2014:19, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".

  8. Thomas Gilbert & Shimon Kogan & Lars Lochstoer & Ataman Ozyildirim, 2007. "Investor Inattention and the Market Impact of Summary Statistics," GSIA Working Papers 2006-E24, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.

    Cited by:

    1. Palomino, Frederic & Renneboog, Luc & Zhang, Chendi, 2009. "Information salience, investor sentiment, and stock returns: The case of British soccer betting," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 368-387, June.
    2. Fedyk, Anastassia & Hodson, James, 2023. "When can the market identify old news?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(1), pages 92-113.
    3. Riccardo Ferretti & Andrea Cipollini & Francesco Pattarin, 2016. "Can an unglamorous non-event affect prices? The role of newspapers," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(1), pages 1142847-114, December.
    4. Zhu, Hui, 2014. "Implications of limited investor attention to customer–supplier information transfers," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 405-416.
    5. Thoenes, Stefan & Gores, Timo, 2012. "Attention, Media and Fuel Efficiency," EWI Working Papers 2012-11, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI).
    6. Birz, Gene, 2017. "Stale economic news, media and the stock market," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 87-102.
    7. Lin, Mei-Chen & Wu, Chu-Hua & Chiang, Ming-Ti, 2014. "Investor attention and information diffusion from analyst coverage," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 235-246.
    8. Englmaier, Florian & Schmöller, Arno & Stowasser, Till, 2015. "Price discontinuities in an online market for used cars," Discussion Paper Series of SFB/TR 15 Governance and the Efficiency of Economic Systems 505, Free University of Berlin, Humboldt University of Berlin, University of Bonn, University of Mannheim, University of Munich.
    9. Long, Huaigang & Zaremba, Adam & Zhou, Wenyu & Bouri, Elie, 2022. "Macroeconomics matter: Leading economic indicators and the cross-section of global stock returns," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    10. Guomei Tang & Xueyong Zhang, 2021. "Media attention to locations and the cross‐section of stock returns," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 61(S1), pages 2301-2336, April.
    11. Marie‐Hélène Gagnon & Aurélien Philippot, 2020. "Are Incentive Contract Settlements Nonevents?," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 20(4), pages 983-992, December.
    12. Ulrich Heilemann & Susanne Schnorr-Bäcker, 2016. "Could The Start Of The German Recession 2008-2009 Have Been Foreseen? Evidence From Real-Time Data," Working Papers 2016-003, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    13. Alfranseder, Emanuel, 2015. "Does the financial crisis affect distressed or constrained firms more heavily?," Knut Wicksell Working Paper Series 2015/4, Lund University, Knut Wicksell Centre for Financial Studies.
    14. Latoeiro, Pedro & Ramos, Sofía B. & Veiga, Helena, 2013. "Predictability of stock market activity using Google search queries," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws130605, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    15. Eggers, Andrew C. & Ellison, Martin & Lee, Sang Seok, 2021. "The economic impact of recession announcements," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 40-52.
    16. Laudenbach, Christine & Loos, Benjamin & Pirschel, Jenny & Wohlfart, Johannes, 2020. "The trading response of individual investors to local bankruptcies," SAFE Working Paper Series 272, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    17. Christine Laudenbach & Benjamin Loos & Jenny Pirschel & Johannes Wohlfart, 2020. "The Trading Response of Individual Investors to Local Bankruptcies," CESifo Working Paper Series 8191, CESifo.
    18. Zaremba, Adam & Cakici, Nusret & Bianchi, Robert J. & Long, Huaigang, 2023. "Interest rate changes and the cross-section of global equity returns," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    19. Michael S. Drake & Jacob R. Thornock & Brady J. Twedt, 2017. "The internet as an information intermediary," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 543-576, June.
    20. Michaely, Roni & Rubin, Amir & Vedrashko, Alexander, 2016. "Are Friday announcements special? Overcoming selection bias," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 65-85.
    21. Di Chen & Yue Wang & Yang Wen & Honglin Du & Xue Tan & Lei Shi & Zhong Ma, 2021. "Does Environmental Policy Help Green Industry? Evidence from China’s Promotion of Municipal Solid Waste Sorting," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(6), pages 1-15, March.
    22. Peter Koudijs, 2013. "The boats that did not sail: Asset Price Volatility and Market Efficiency in a Natural Experiment," NBER Working Papers 18831, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Heilemann Ullrich & Schnorr-Bäcker Susanne, 2017. "Could the start of the German recession 2008–2009 have been foreseen? Evidence from Real-Time Data," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 237(1), pages 29-62, February.
    24. Edmans, Alex, 2011. "Does the stock market fully value intangibles? Employee satisfaction and equity prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(3), pages 621-640, September.
    25. Sadique, Shibley & In, Francis & Veeraraghavan, Madhu & Wachtel, Paul, 2013. "Soft information and economic activity: Evidence from the Beige Book," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 81-92.
    26. Laudenbach, Christine & Loos, Benjamin & Pirschel, Jenny & Wohlfart, Johannes, 2021. "The trading response of individual investors to local bankruptcies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 928-953.
    27. Caglayan, Mustafa & Pham, Tho & Talavera, Oleksandr & Xiong, Xiong, 2020. "Asset mispricing in peer-to-peer loan secondary markets," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    28. Stefano Giglio & Kelly Shue, 2013. "No News is News: Do Markets Underreact to Nothing?," NBER Working Papers 18914, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    29. Paul M. Guest & Marco Nerino, 2019. "Do Corporate Governance Ratings Change Investor Expectations? Evidence from Announcements by Institutional Shareholder Services," Working Papers wp515, Centre for Business Research, University of Cambridge.
    30. Gene Birz & Sandip Dutta & Han Yu, 2022. "Economic forecasts, anchoring bias, and stock returns," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 51(1), pages 169-191, March.
    31. Elizabeth Blankespoor & Ed Dehaan & John Wertz & Christina Zhu, 2019. "Why Do Individual Investors Disregard Accounting Information? The Roles of Information Awareness and Acquisition Costs," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(1), pages 53-84, March.
    32. Schmöller, Arno, 2010. "Bidding Behavior, Seller Strategies, and the Utilization of Information in Auctions for Complex Goods," Munich Dissertations in Economics 11175, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    33. Huang, Alan Guoming & Wermers, Russ & Xue, Jinming, 2023. ""Buy the rumor, sell the news": Liquidity provision by bond funds following corporate news events," CFR Working Papers 23-07, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).

  9. Robert H. McGuckin & Ataman Ozyildirim & Victor Zarnowitz, 2003. "A More Timely and Useful Index of Leading Indicators," Economics Program Working Papers 03-01, The Conference Board, Economics Program.

    Cited by:

    1. Paap, R. & Segers, R. & van Dijk, D.J.C., 2007. "Do leading indicators lead peaks more than troughs?," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2007-08, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    2. S. Boragan Aruoba & Francis X. Diebold & Chiara Scotti, 2007. "Real-time measurement of business conditions," International Finance Discussion Papers 901, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Heij, Christiaan & van Dijk, Dick & Groenen, Patrick J.F., 2011. "Real-time macroeconomic forecasting with leading indicators: An empirical comparison," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 466-481, April.
    4. Bouwman, Kees E. & Jacobs, Jan P.A.M., 2005. "Forecasting with real-time macroeconomic data: the ragged-edge problem and revisions," CCSO Working Papers 200505, University of Groningen, CCSO Centre for Economic Research.
    5. Thomas Gilbert & Shimon Kogan & Lars Lochstoer & Ataman Ozyildirim, 2007. "Investor Inattention and the Market Impact of Summary Statistics," GSIA Working Papers 2006-E24, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
    6. A. Girardi & R. Golinelli & C. Pappalardo, 2014. "The Role of Indicator Selection in Nowcasting Euro Area GDP in Pseudo Real Time," Working Papers wp919, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    7. Robert H. McGuckin & Ataman Ozyildirim, 2004. "Real-Time Tests of the Leading Economic Index: Do Changes in the Index Composition Matter?," Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2004(2), pages 171-191.
    8. Heij, C. & van Dijk, D.J.C. & Groenen, P.J.F., 2009. "Macroeconomic forecasting with real-time data: an empirical comparison," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2009-27, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    9. Jamie Alcock & Philip Gray, 2005. "Forecasting Stock Returns Using Model‐Selection Criteria," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 81(253), pages 135-151, June.
    10. Uluceviz, Erhan & Yilmaz, Kamil, 2021. "Measuring real–financial connectedness in the U.S. economy," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    11. Henk Kranendonk & Jan Bonenkamp & Johan Verbruggen, 2004. "A leading indicator for the Dutch economy; methodological and empirical revision of the CPB system," CPB Discussion Paper 32, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    12. Lleo, Sebastien & Ziemba, William T., 2014. "Does the bond-stock earning yield differential model predict equity market corrections better than high P/E models?," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 59290, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    13. Blagica Petreski & Marjan Petreski, 2014. "Leading composite index produced by Finance Think: Forecasting power reassessed," Finance Think Policy Studies 2014-12/2, Finance Think - Economic Research and Policy Institute.
    14. Petreski, Marjan, 2013. "Assessing the forecasting power of the leading composite index in Macedonia," MPRA Paper 49433, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Ataman Ozyildirim & Brian Schaitkin & Victor Zarnowitz, 2008. "Business Cycles in the Euro Area Defined with Coincident Economic Indicators and Predicted with Leading Economic Indicators," Economics Program Working Papers 08-04, The Conference Board, Economics Program.
    16. Roberto Golinelli & Giuseppe Parigi, 2013. "Tracking world trade and GDP in real time," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 920, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    17. van Dijk, D.J.C. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F. & Ravazzolo, F., 2007. "Evaluating real-time forecasts in real-time," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2007-33, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    18. Philip Gray, 2008. "Economic significance of predictability in Australian equities," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 48(5), pages 783-805, December.
    19. David Coble & Pablo Pincheira, 2021. "Forecasting building permits with Google Trends," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(6), pages 3315-3345, December.
    20. Donadelli, Michael & Paradiso, Antonio & Riedel, Max, 2016. "A quasi real-time leading indicator for the EU industrial production," SAFE Working Paper Series 118 [rev.], Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE, revised 2016.
    21. Giuseppe Munda, 2015. "Beyond Gdp: An Overview Of Measurement Issues In Redefining ‘Wealth’," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(3), pages 403-422, July.
    22. Levanon, Gad & Manini, Jean-Claude & Ozyildirim, Ataman & Schaitkin, Brian & Tanchua, Jennelyn, 2015. "Using financial indicators to predict turning points in the business cycle: The case of the leading economic index for the United States," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 426-445.

  10. Robert H. McGuckin & Ataman Ozyildirim, 2003. "Real-Time Tests of the Leading Economic Index: Do Changes in the Index Composition Matter?," Economics Program Working Papers 03-04, The Conference Board, Economics Program.

    Cited by:

    1. António Rua & Luís Catela Nunes, 2003. "Coincident and Leading Indicators for the Euro Area: A Frequency Band Approach," Working Papers w200307, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    2. Sergey Smirnov, 2011. "Those Unpredictable Recessions," HSE Working papers WP BRP 02/EC/2011, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    3. Levanon, Gad & Manini, Jean-Claude & Ozyildirim, Ataman & Schaitkin, Brian & Tanchua, Jennelyn, 2015. "Using financial indicators to predict turning points in the business cycle: The case of the leading economic index for the United States," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 426-445.

  11. Victor Zarnowitz & Ataman Ozyildirim, 2001. "Time Series Decomposition and Measurement of Business Cycles, Trends and Growth Cycles," Economics Program Working Papers 01-03, The Conference Board, Economics Program.

    Cited by:

    1. António Rua & Luís Catela Nunes, 2003. "Coincident and Leading Indicators for the Euro Area: A Frequency Band Approach," Working Papers w200307, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    2. Patrick M. Crowley & Tony Schildt, 2012. "An Analysis of the Embedded Frequency Content of Macroeconomic Indicators and their Counterparts using the Hilbert-Huang Transform," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2012(1), pages 1-31.
    3. Hahn, Elke & Zekaite, Zivile & de Bondt, Gabe, 2018. "ALICE: A new inflation monitoring tool," Working Paper Series 2175, European Central Bank.
    4. Marlon Fritz & Thomas Gries & Yuanhua Feng, 2019. "Growth Trends and Systematic Patterns of Booms and Busts‐Testing 200 Years of Business Cycle Dynamics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 81(1), pages 62-78, February.
    5. Sergey V. Smirnov & Nikolai V. Kondrashov & Anna V. Petronevich, 2016. "Dating Cyclical Turning Points for Russia: Formal Methods and Informal Choices," HSE Working papers WP BRP 122/EC/2016, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    6. Sbrana, Giacomo, 2013. "The exact linkage between the Beveridge–Nelson decomposition and other permanent-transitory decompositions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 311-316.
    7. Kosei Fukuda, 2009. "Forecasting growth cycle turning points using US and Japanese professional forecasters," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 243-267, May.
    8. Enrique López Enciso, 2019. "Dos tradiciones en la medición del ciclo: historia general y desarrollos en Colombia," Tiempo y Economía, Universidad de Bogotá Jorge Tadeo Lozano, vol. 6(1), pages 77-142, February.
    9. Daisuke Nagakura, 2008. "How Are Shocks to Trend and Cycle Correlated? A Simple Methodology for Unidentified Unobserved Components Models," IMES Discussion Paper Series 08-E-24, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    10. Monica Billio & Massimiliano Caporin & Guido Cazzavillan, 2008. "Dating EU15 monthly business cycle jointly using GDP and IPI," Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2007(3), pages 333-366.
    11. Ludmila Fadejeva & Aleksejs Melihovs, 2008. "The Baltic states and Europe: common factors of economic activity," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 8(1), pages 75-96, October.
    12. Mathilde Aubry & Jean Bonnet & Patricia Renou-Maissant, 2015. "Entrepreneurship and the business cycle: the “Schumpeter” effect versus the “refugee” effect—a French appraisal based on regional data," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 54(1), pages 23-55, January.
    13. Miroslav Klúcik & Jana Juriová, 2010. "Slowdown or Recession? Forecasts Based on Composite Leading Indicator," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 2(1), pages 17-36, January.
    14. Almeida, Pedro Cameira de & Fuinhas, José Alberto & Marques, António Cardoso, 2011. "A assimetria dos ciclos económicos: Evidência internacional usando o teste triples [The asymmetry of business cycles: International evidence using triples test]," MPRA Paper 35208, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Gustavo A. Marrero, 2004. "Component versus Tradicional Models to Forecast Quarterly National Account Aggregates: a Monte Carlo Experiment," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 0410, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
    16. Sonia de Lucas Santos & M. Jesús Delgado Rodríguez & Inmaculada Álvarez Ayuso & José Luis Cendejas Bueno, 2011. "Los ciclos económicos internacionales: antecedentes y revisión de la literatura," Cuadernos de Economía - Spanish Journal of Economics and Finance, Asociación Cuadernos de Economía, vol. 34(95), pages 73-84, Agosto.
    17. Kevin Moran & Simplice Aime Nono, 2016. "Using Confidence Data to Forecast the Canadian Business Cycle," Cahiers de recherche 1606, Centre de recherche sur les risques, les enjeux économiques, et les politiques publiques.
    18. Ai Deng & Pierre Perron, 2006. "A comparison of alternative asymptotic frameworks to analyse a structural change in a linear time trend," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 9(3), pages 423-447, November.
    19. Kajal Lahiri & Wenxiong Yao, 2004. "The predictive power of an experimental transportation output index," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(3), pages 149-152.
    20. Yao, Vincent W. & Solboda, Brian, 2005. "Forecasting Cycles in the Transportation Sector," 46th Annual Transportation Research Forum, Washington, D.C., March 6-8, 2005 208159, Transportation Research Forum.
    21. Duncan A. O’Brien & Smita Deb & Gideon Gal & Stephen J. Thackeray & Partha S. Dutta & Shin-ichiro S. Matsuzaki & Linda May & Christopher F. Clements, 2023. "Early warning signals have limited applicability to empirical lake data," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-14, December.
    22. Levent, Korap, 2006. "An essay upon the business cycle facts: the Turkish case," MPRA Paper 21717, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    23. Lyubomir Ivanov, 2005. "Is "The ideal filter" really Ideal: The usage of Frequency Filtering and Spurious Cycles," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, vol. 3(1), pages 79-96.
    24. Johan Fourie & Willem H. Boshoff, 2008. "Ship traffic and the economy of the Cape Colony: 1652-1793," Working Papers 089, Economic Research Southern Africa.
    25. Jakob De Haan & Robert Inklaar & Richard Jong‐A‐Pin, 2008. "Will Business Cycles In The Euro Area Converge? A Critical Survey Of Empirical Research," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(2), pages 234-273, April.
    26. Monica Billio & Jacques Anas & Laurent Ferrara & Marco Lo Duca, 2007. "A turning point chronology for the Euro-zone," Working Papers 2007_33, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    27. Wolfgang Nierhaus & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2016. "ifo Konjunkturumfragen und Konjunkturanalyse: Band II," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 72.
    28. Henk Kranendonk & Jan Bonenkamp & Johan Verbruggen, 2004. "A leading indicator for the Dutch economy; methodological and empirical revision of the CPB system," CPB Discussion Paper 32, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    29. knani, ramzi & fredj, ali, 2010. "Mondialisation et fluctuations des cycles économiques [globalisation and business cycle fluctuation]," MPRA Paper 22755, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    30. Kajal Lahiri & Herman O. Stekler & Wenxiong Yao & Peg Young, 2003. "Monthly Output Index for the U.S. Transportation Sector," Discussion Papers 03-12, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
    31. Antonin Aviat & Frédérique Bec & Claude Diebolt & Catherine Doz & Denis Ferrand & Laurent Ferrara & Eric Heyer & Valérie Mignon & Pierre-Alain Pionnier, 2021. "Dating business cycles in France: A reference chronology," Working Papers of BETA 2021-33, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    32. Filippo Altissimo & Riccardo Cristadoro & Mario Forni & Marco Lippi & Giovanni Veronese, 2010. "New Eurocoin: Tracking Economic Growth in Real Time," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(4), pages 1024-1034, November.
    33. Perron, Pierre & Wada, Tatsuma, 2009. "Let's take a break: Trends and cycles in US real GDP," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 749-765, September.
    34. Calderon, Cesar & Fuentes, Rodrigo, 2010. "Characterizing the business cycles of emerging economies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5343, The World Bank.
    35. Li, Ziran & Sun, Jiajing & Wang, Shouyang, 2013. "An information diffusion-based model of oil futures price," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 518-525.
    36. Gabriele Galati & Irma Hindrayanto & Siem Jan Koopman & Marente Vlekke, 2016. "Measuring Financial Cycles in a Model-Based Analysis: Empirical Evidence for the United States and the Euro Area," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 16-029/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    37. Ferrara, Laurent & Darné, Olivier, 2009. "Identification of slowdowns and accelerations for the euro area economy," CEPR Discussion Papers 7376, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    38. Badarau-Semenescu, Cristina & Ndiaye, Cheikh Tidiane, 2010. "Politique économique et transmission des chocs dans la zone euro," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 86(1), pages 35-77, mars.
    39. Kajal Lahiri, Wenxiong Yao, and Peg Young, 2003. "Cycles in the Transportation Sector and the Aggregate Economy," Discussion Papers 03-14, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
    40. Mohanty, Jaya & Singh, Bhupal & Jain, Rajeev, 2003. "Business cycles and leading indicators of industrial activity in India," MPRA Paper 12149, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    41. Yasutomo Murasawa, 2014. "Measuring the natural rates, gaps, and deviation cycles," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 495-522, September.
    42. Yasutomo Murasawa, 2016. "The Beveridge–Nelson decomposition of mixed-frequency series," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(4), pages 1415-1441, December.
    43. Sen Guo & Haoran Zhao & Huiru Zhao, 2017. "A New Hybrid Wind Power Forecaster Using the Beveridge-Nelson Decomposition Method and a Relevance Vector Machine Optimized by the Ant Lion Optimizer," Energies, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-20, July.
    44. Luis Uzeda, 2018. "State Correlation and Forecasting: A Bayesian Approach Using Unobserved Components Models," Staff Working Papers 18-14, Bank of Canada.
    45. McKay, Alisdair, 2006. "The Brevity and Violence of Contractions and Expansions," CEPR Discussion Papers 5756, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    46. Sampriti Das & Amiya Sarma, 2021. "Growth Behaviour of India’s Export of Services, 1975–2018," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 56(3), pages 301-321, August.
    47. Arie Marom & Yigal Menashe & Tanya Suchoy, 2003. "The State-of-The-Economy Index and The probability of Recession: The Markov Regime-Switching Model," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2003.05, Bank of Israel.
    48. Ron Martin & Peter Sunley & Ben Gardiner & Peter Tyler, 2016. "How Regions React to Recessions: Resilience and the Role of Economic Structure," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(4), pages 561-585, April.
    49. Margherita Gerolimetto & Stefano Magrini, 2017. "A Novel Look at Long-run Convergence Dynamics in the United States," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 40(3), pages 241-269, May.
    50. Pedro M.D.C.B. Gouveia & Paulo M.M. Rodrigues, 2005. "Dating and Synchronizing Tourism Growth Cycles," Tourism Economics, , vol. 11(4), pages 501-515, December.
    51. Hasan Engin Duran, 2014. "Short-Run Dynamics of Income Disparities and Regional Cycle Synchronization in the U.S," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(2), pages 292-332, June.
    52. Adél Bosch & Steven F. Koch, 2020. "The South African Financial Cycle and its Relation to Household Deleveraging," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 88(2), pages 145-173, June.
    53. Stamfort, Stefan, 2005. "Berechnung trendbereinigter Indikatoren für Deutschland mit Hilfe von Filterverfahren," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,19, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    54. Qian Xu & Guodong Zhu & Zongxi Qu & Guoqiang Ma, 2023. "Earthquake and Tourism Destination Resilience from the Perspective of Regional Economic Resilience," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(10), pages 1-19, May.
    55. Ching-Chih Chang & Tin-Chia Lai, 2011. "The nonlinear dynamic process of macroeconomic development by modelling dry bulk shipping market," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(17), pages 1655-1663.
    56. Yueqing Jia, 2011. "A New Look at China’s Output Fluctuations: Quarterly GDP Estimation with an Unobserved Components Approach," Working Papers 2011-006, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
    57. Ataman Ozyildirim & Brian Schaitkin & Victor Zarnowitz, 2008. "Business Cycles in the Euro Area Defined with Coincident Economic Indicators and Predicted with Leading Economic Indicators," Economics Program Working Papers 08-04, The Conference Board, Economics Program.
    58. Herman Kamil & Jose David Pulido & Jose Luis Torres, 2010. "El "IMACO": un índice mensual líder de la actividad económica en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 609, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    59. Pagan, Adrian & Robinson, Tim, 2014. "Methods for assessing the impact of financial effects on business cycles in macroeconometric models," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 94-106.
    60. Krittika Banerjee, 2012. "Credit and Growth Cycles in India: An Empirical Assessment of the Lead and Lag Behaviour," Working Papers id:4699, eSocialSciences.
    61. Samet Gunay & Walid Bakry & Somar Al-Mohamad, 2021. "The Australian Stock Market’s Reaction to the First Wave of the COVID-19 Pandemic and Black Summer Bushfires: A Sectoral Analysis," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(4), pages 1-19, April.
    62. Marie Adanero-Donderis & Olivier Darné & Laurent Ferrara, 2009. "Un indicateur probabiliste du cycle d’accélération pour l’économie française," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 189(3), pages 95-114.
    63. Andrés Maroto-Sánchez & Juan R. Cuadrado-Roura, 2013. "Recent cyclical movements in the spanish productivity. An aggregate and sectoral analysis," Working Papers 06/13, Instituto Universitario de Análisis Económico y Social.
    64. Robert Pater, 2014. "Are there two types of business cycles? a note on crisis detection," "e-Finanse", University of Information Technology and Management, Institute of Financial Research and Analysis, vol. 10(3), pages 1-28, December.
    65. Mr. Joannes Mongardini & Tahsin Saadi Sedik, 2003. "Estimating Indexes of Coincident and Leading Indicators: An Application to Jordan," IMF Working Papers 2003/170, International Monetary Fund.
    66. Ferrara, L., 2008. "The contribution of cyclical turning point indicators to business cycle analysis," Quarterly selection of articles - Bulletin de la Banque de France, Banque de France, issue 13, pages 49-61, Autumn.
    67. Herman Kamil & José David Pulido & José Luis Torres, 2010. "El IMACO": un índice mensual líder de la actividad económica en Colombia"," Borradores de Economia 7129, Banco de la Republica.
    68. Milda Maria Burzala, 2012. "The Probability of Recession in Poland Based on the Hamilton Switching Model and the Logit Model," Dynamic Econometric Models, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 12, pages 73-88.
    69. Edward J. Nell & Karim Errouaki, 2013. "Rational Econometric Man," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 13976.
    70. Miroslav Klúcik & Ján Haluška, 2008. "Construction of composite leading indicator for the Slovak economy," Analele Stiintifice ale Universitatii "Alexandru Ioan Cuza" din Iasi - Stiinte Economice (1954-2015), Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 55, pages 363-370, November.
    71. Emmanuel Apergis & Nicholas Apergis, 2019. "“Sakura” has not grown in a day: infrastructure investment and economic growth in Japan under different tax regimes," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(2), pages 541-567, August.
    72. Fritz, Marlon, 2019. "Steady state adjusting trends using a data-driven local polynomial regression," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 312-325.
    73. Ching-Chih Chang & Tin-Chia Lai, 2011. "Nonlinear model for Panamax secondhand ship," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(17), pages 2193-2198.
    74. Harry X. Wu & Eric Girardin, 2016. "The ‘new’ normal is ‘old’ in China: Very late catching up and return to the (pre-WTO) old normal," EcoMod2016 9721, EcoMod.
    75. Ciccarelli, Carlo & Fenoaltea, Stefano, 2007. "Business fluctuations in Italy, 1861-1913: The new evidence," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 432-451, July.
    76. Herman Kamil & José David Pulido & José Luis Torres, 2010. "El "IMACO": un índice mensual de la actividad económica en Colombia," Monetaria, CEMLA, vol. 0(4), pages 495-548, octubre-d.
    77. Klaus Abberger & Maximilian Frey & Michaela Kesina & Anna Wolf, 2009. "Indicators for global economic activity," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 62(16), pages 32-41, August.
    78. Michal Bernardelli & Mariusz Prochniak & Bartosz Witkowski, 2017. "The application of hidden Markov models to the analysis of real convergence," Dynamic Econometric Models, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 17, pages 59-80.
    79. Michał Bernardelli & Mariusz Próchniak & Bartosz Witkowski, 2018. "Przydatność ukrytych modeli Markowa do oceny podobieństwa krajów w zakresie synchronizacji wahań cyklicznych i wyrównywania się poziomów dochodu," Collegium of Economic Analysis Annals, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis, issue 53, pages 77-96.
    80. Jefferson A. Colombo & Renan X. Cortes & Fernando I. L. Cruz & Luis H. Z. Paese, 2018. "Building State-Level Business Cycle Tracer Tools: Evidence from a Large Emerging Economy," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 10(5), pages 14-30, May.
    81. C. Colther & J. L. Rojo & R. Hornero, 2022. "A Wavelet Method for Detecting Turning Points in the Business Cycle," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 18(2), pages 171-187, July.
    82. Crowley, Patrick & Aaron, Schultz, 2010. "A New Approach to Analyzing Convergence and Synchronicity in Growth and Business Cycles: Cross Recurrence Plots and Quantification Analysis," MPRA Paper 23728, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    83. Levent, Korap, 2009. "Türkiye ekonomisinde enflasyon ve reel milli gelir arasındaki çevrimsellik ilişkisi üzerine bir inceleme [An investigation upon the cyclical relationship between inflation and real income in the Tu," MPRA Paper 20266, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    84. Marco Gallegati & Mauro Gallegati & James B. Ramsey & Willi Semmler, 2017. "Long waves in prices: new evidence from wavelet analysis," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 11(1), pages 127-151, January.
    85. Kang, Byoung Uk & In, Francis & Kim, Tong Suk, 2017. "Timescale betas and the cross section of equity returns: Framework, application, and implications for interpreting the Fama–French factors," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 15-39.
    86. Vojtech Benda & Lubos Ruzicka, 2007. "Short-term Forecasting Methods Based on the LEI Approach: The Case of the Czech Republic," Research and Policy Notes 2007/01, Czech National Bank.
    87. Desirée Castrillo R. & Carlos Mora G. & Carlos Torres G., 2010. "Mecanismos de transmisión de la política monetaria en Costa Rica: periodo 1991-2007," Monetaria, CEMLA, vol. 0(4), pages 549-599, octubre-d.
    88. Feng Guo & Ying Huang, 2010. "Hot Money and Business Cycle Volatility: Evidence from China," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 18(6), pages 73-89, November.
    89. Karminsky, A. & Dyachkova, N., 2020. "Empirical study of the relationship between credit cycles and changes in credit ratings," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 48(4), pages 138-160.
    90. Fatás, Antonio & Mihov, Ilian, 2013. "Recoveries," CEPR Discussion Papers 9551, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    91. Andrés Maroto-Sánchez, 2009. "Productivity growth and cyclical behaviour in service industries: the Spanish case," The Service Industries Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(5), pages 725-745, February.
    92. Kristian Jönsson, 2010. "Trend extraction with a judgement-augmented hodrick–prescott filter," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 39(3), pages 703-711, December.
    93. Panagiotis Tzouvanas & Renatas Kizys & Ioannis Chatziantoniou & Roza Sagitova, 2019. "Can Variations in Temperature Explain the Systemic Risk of European Firms?," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 74(4), pages 1723-1759, December.
    94. Adanero-Donderis , M. & Darné, O. & Ferrara, L., 2007. "Deux indicateurs probabilistes de retournement cyclique pour l’économie française," Working papers 187, Banque de France.
    95. Marco Antonio Laguna Vargas, 2010. "Características de la inflación importada en Bolivia: ¿puede contenerse con política cambiaria?," Monetaria, CEMLA, vol. 0(4), pages 463-493, octubre-d.
    96. Skikiewicz Robert, 2013. "Interest rates and changes in zloty deposits of households in Poland," Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia, Sciendo, vol. 13(1), pages 95-107, December.
    97. Stefano Magrini & Margherita Gerolimetto & Hasan Engin Duran, 2011. "Distortions in Cross-Sectional Convergence Analysis when the Aggregate Business Cycle is Incomplete," Working Papers 2011_07, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    98. Korap, Levent, 2010. "A small scaled business-cycle analysis of the Turkish economy: some counter-cyclical evidence using new income series," MPRA Paper 28647, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    99. Tan, Hao & Mathews, John A., 2010. "Identification and analysis of industry cycles," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 63(5), pages 454-462, May.
    100. Hao Tan & John A. Mathews, 2007. "Cyclical Dynamics in Three Industries," DRUID Working Papers 07-07, DRUID, Copenhagen Business School, Department of Industrial Economics and Strategy/Aalborg University, Department of Business Studies.
    101. Andres Maroto-Sanchez & Juan R. Cuadrado-Roura, 2013. "The key role of the productive structure in the countercyclical productivity in Spain," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 2(3), pages 86-93.
    102. Koki Kyo & Hideo Noda & Genshiro Kitagawa, 2022. "Co-movement of Cyclical Components Approach to Construct a Coincident Index of Business Cycles," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 18(1), pages 101-127, March.
    103. Sanidas, Elias, 2014. "Four harmonic cycles explain and predict commodity currencies' wide long term fluctuations," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 135-151.
    104. Any Flore Djoumessi Djoukouo, 2023. "Recessions and recoveries in Central African countries: Lessons from the past," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(6), pages 1121-1142, August.

  12. Robert H. McGuckin & Ataman Ozyildirim & Victor Zarnowitz, 2000. "The Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators: How to Make it More Timely," Economics Program Working Papers 00-04, The Conference Board, Economics Program.

    Cited by:

    1. Kathleen Dorsainvil, 2006. "Explaining Economic Performance in the Haitian Economy," Economía Mexicana NUEVA ÉPOCA, CIDE, División de Economía, vol. 0(1), pages 125-145, January-J.
    2. Bouwman, Kees E. & Jacobs, Jan P.A.M., 2005. "Forecasting with real-time macroeconomic data: the ragged-edge problem and revisions," CCSO Working Papers 200505, University of Groningen, CCSO Centre for Economic Research.
    3. Rafal Kasperowicz, 2010. "Identification Of Industrial Cycle Leading Indicators Using Causality Test," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 5(2), pages 47-59, December.
    4. Sonia de Lucas Santos & M. Jesús Delgado Rodríguez & Inmaculada Álvarez Ayuso & José Luis Cendejas Bueno, 2011. "Los ciclos económicos internacionales: antecedentes y revisión de la literatura," Cuadernos de Economía - Spanish Journal of Economics and Finance, Asociación Cuadernos de Economía, vol. 34(95), pages 73-84, Agosto.
    5. Agne Reklaite, 2011. "Coincident, leading and recession indexes for the Lithuanian economy," Baltic Journal of Economics, Baltic International Centre for Economic Policy Studies, vol. 11(1), pages 91-108, July.
    6. Heij, C. & van Dijk, D.J.C. & Groenen, P.J.F., 2009. "Macroeconomic forecasting with real-time data: an empirical comparison," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2009-27, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    7. Kajal Lahiri & Herman O. Stekler & Wenxiong Yao & Peg Young, 2003. "Monthly Output Index for the U.S. Transportation Sector," Discussion Papers 03-12, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
    8. Andrew Filardo, 2004. "The 2001 US recession: what did recession prediction models tell us?," BIS Working Papers 148, Bank for International Settlements.
    9. Máximo Camacho & Gonzalo Palmieri, 2021. "Evaluating the OECD’s main economic indicators at anticipating recessions," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(1), pages 80-93, January.
    10. Michael Meow-Chung Yap, 2009. "Assessing Malaysia’s Business Cycle indicators," Monash Economics Working Papers 04-09, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    11. Mr. Joannes Mongardini & Tahsin Saadi Sedik, 2003. "Estimating Indexes of Coincident and Leading Indicators: An Application to Jordan," IMF Working Papers 2003/170, International Monetary Fund.

  13. Kala Krishna & Ataman Ozyildirim & Norman R. Swanson, 1998. "Trade, Investment, and Growth: Nexus, Analysis, and Prognosis," NBER Working Papers 6861, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    Cited by:

    1. Syed Tehseen Jawaid, 2014. "Trade Openness and Economic Growth," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 49(2), pages 193-212, May.
    2. Weber, Enzo, 2009. "Common and uncommon sources of growth in Asia Pacific," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 20-36, March.
    3. Joao Ricardo Faria & Miguel León-Ledesma, 2003. "Cultural Heritage and Growth," Studies in Economics 0303, School of Economics, University of Kent.
    4. Bakari, Sayef, 2017. "The Three-Way Linkages between Export, Import and Economic Growth: New Evidence from Tunisia," MPRA Paper 81080, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Bibhuti Ranjan Mishra, 2020. "Role of External and Domestic Demand in Economic Growth: A Study of BRICS Countries," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 21(2), pages 547-566, April.
    6. Kul B. Luintel & George Mavrotas, 2005. "Examining Private Investment Heterogeneity: Evidence from a Dynamic Panel," WIDER Working Paper Series DP2005-11, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    7. Elliot Boateng & Mary Amponsah & Collins Annor Baah, 2017. "Complementarity Effect of Financial Development and FDI on Investment in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Panel Data Analysis," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 29(2), pages 305-318, June.
    8. Pablo Acosta & Andrés Loza, 2005. "Short and long run determinants of private investment in Argentina," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 8, pages 389-406, November.
    9. Christine Mutz & Thomas Ziesemer, 2008. "Simultaneous estimation of income and price elasticities of export demand, scale economies and total factor productivity growth for Brazil," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(22), pages 2921-2937.
    10. HAZMAN, Samsudin & OMAR, Khatijah & ABD HALIMB, Abi sofian & SYAZWAN SHAMSUDIN, Muhammad Saiful, 2021. "Export Led Growth Via Intra-Regional Trading An Econometric Analysis Of Asean, Eu, Nafta, Mercosur And Comesa," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 21(2), pages 5-28.
    11. António Afonso & João Tovar Jalles, 2011. "Linking Investment and Fiscal Policies," Working Papers Department of Economics 2011/16, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    12. Xie, Cong & Xie, Lunyu & Xu, Jintao & Yi, Yuanyuan, 2022. "The Impact of the Three-North Shelter Forest Program on Rural Income: Evidence from Inner Mongolia in China," EfD Discussion Paper 22-2, Environment for Development, University of Gothenburg.
    13. Faridul Islam & Qazi Muhammad Adnan Hye & Muhammad Shahbaz, 2012. "Import‐economic growth nexus: ARDL approach to cointegration," Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 5(3), pages 194-214, September.
    14. Emmanuel Nkoa ONGO & Andrew Wujung VUKENKENG, 2014. "Does gross capital formation matter for economic growth in the CEMAC sub-region?," EuroEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 2(33), pages 79-88, November.
    15. P. K. Mishra, 2012. "The Dynamics of the Relationship between Imports and Economic Growth in India," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 1(1), pages 57-79, June.
    16. Harrison, Ann & Hanson, Gordon, 1999. "Who gains from trade reform? Some remaining puzzles," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 125-154, June.
    17. Judith A. Giles, 2000. "Testing for Two-Step Granger Noncausality in Trivariate VAR Models," Econometrics Working Papers 0008, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
    18. Riad Sultan, 2012. "An Econometric Study of Economic Growth, Energy and Exports in Mauritius: Implications for Trade and Climate Policy," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 2(4), pages 225-237.
    19. Antonios Adamopoulos & Athanasios Vazakidis, 2019. "A System Equation Model A Comparative Study for G-7 Countries," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 69(4), pages 74-109, October-D.
    20. Bakari, Sayef, 2021. "Reinvest the relationship between exports and economic growth in African countries: New insights from innovative econometric methods," MPRA Paper 108785, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Shandre Mugan Thangavelu & Gulasekaran Rajaguru, 2004. "Is there an export or import-led productivity growth in rapidly developing Asian countries? a multivariate VAR analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(10), pages 1083-1093.
    22. Herrerias, M.J. & Orts, Vicente, 2011. "Imports and growth in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2811-2819.
    23. Ahsan Abbas & Eatzaz Ahmed & Fazal Husain, 2019. "Political and Economic Uncertainty and Investment Behaviour in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 58(3), pages 307-331.

  14. Swanson, N.R. & Ozyildirim, A. & Pisu, M., 1996. "A Comparison of Alternatove causality and Predictive Accuracy Tests in the presence of Integrated and Co-integrated Economic Variables," Papers 4-96-4, Pennsylvania State - Department of Economics.

    Cited by:

    1. Norman R. Swanson & Nii Ayi Armah, 2011. "Predictive Inference Under Model Misspecification with an Application to Assessing the Marginal Predictive Content of Money for Output," Departmental Working Papers 201103, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
    2. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2000. "Tests of Equal Forecast Accuracy and Encompassing for Nested Models," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0319, Econometric Society.
    3. Kala Krishna & Ataman Ozyildirim & Norman R. Swanson, 1998. "Trade, Investment, and Growth: Nexus, Analysis, and Prognosis," NBER Working Papers 6861, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Jonathan B. Hill, 2004. "Efficient Tests of Long-Run Causation in Trivariate VAR Processes with a Rolling Window Study of the Money-Income Relationship," Macroeconomics 0407013, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Feb 2006.
    5. Swanson, Norman R., 1998. "Money and output viewed through a rolling window," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 455-474, May.
    6. Bauer, Dietmar & Maynard, Alex, 2012. "Persistence-robust surplus-lag Granger causality testing," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 169(2), pages 293-300.
    7. Tronzano, Marco, 2011. "“Finance and Growth: A Reassessment of the Empirical Evidence for the Indian Economy” - Finanza e crescita: un riesame dell’evidenza empirica nel caso dell’India," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 64(3), pages 329-364.
    8. Märten Kress, 2004. "Lending cycles in Estonia," Bank of Estonia Working Papers 2004-3, Bank of Estonia, revised 10 Oct 2004.

Articles

  1. Levanon, Gad & Manini, Jean-Claude & Ozyildirim, Ataman & Schaitkin, Brian & Tanchua, Jennelyn, 2015. "Using financial indicators to predict turning points in the business cycle: The case of the leading economic index for the United States," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 426-445.

    Cited by:

    1. Cyrille Lenoel & Garry Young, 2020. "Real-time turning point indicators: Review of current international practices," Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Discussion Papers ESCoE DP-2020-05, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE).
    2. Knut Lehre Seip & Yunus Yilmaz & Michael Schröder, 2019. "Comparing Sentiment- and Behavioral-Based Leading Indexes for Industrial Production: When Does Each Fail?," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-18, October.
    3. Shuaizhang Feng & Jiandong Sun, 2020. "Misclassification-Errors-Adjusted Sahm Rule for Early Identification of Economic Recession," Working Papers 2020-029, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
    4. Milan Christian Wet & Ilse Botha, 2022. "Constructing and Characterising the Aggregate South African Financial Cycle: A Markov Regime-Switching Approach," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 18(1), pages 37-67, March.
    5. Jakob Fiedler & Josef Ruzicka & Thomas Theobald, 2019. "The Real-Time Information Content of Financial Stress and Bank Lending on European Business Cycles," IMK Working Paper 198-2019, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    6. Xin Long Xu & Hsing Hung Chen & Rong Rong Zhang, 2020. "The Impact of Intellectual Capital Efficiency on Corporate Sustainable Growth-Evidence from Smart Agriculture in China," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 10(6), pages 1-15, June.
    7. Julien Chevallier & Bangzhu Zhu & Lyuyuan Zhang, 2021. "Forecasting Inflection Points: Hybrid Methods with Multiscale Machine Learning Algorithms," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 57(2), pages 537-575, February.
    8. Feng, Shuaizhang & Sun, Jiandong, 2020. "Misclassification-errors-adjusted Sahm Rule for Early Identification of Economic Recession," GLO Discussion Paper Series 523, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    9. Jeerawadee Pumjaroen & Preecha Vichitthamaros & Yuthana Sethapramote, 2020. "Forecasting Economic Cycle with a Structural Equation Model: Evidence from Thailand," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 10(3), pages 47-57.
    10. Kehinde Damilola Ilesanmi & Devi Datt Tewari, 2020. "Financial Stress Index and Economic Activity in South Africa: New Evidence," Economies, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-19, December.
    11. Soh, Ann-Ni, 2020. "A Review on the Leading Indicator Approach towards Economic Forecasting," MPRA Paper 103854, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Kajal Lahiri & Cheng Yang, 2022. "ROC approach to forecasting recessions using daily yield spreads," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 57(4), pages 191-203, October.
    13. Pawel Krolikowski & Kurt Graden Lunsford, 2020. "Advance Layoff Notices and Aggregate Job Loss," Working Papers 20-03R, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, revised 02 Feb 2022.
    14. Ingrid-Mihaela Dragotă & Cosmin Octavian Cepoi & Lavinia Ştefan, 2023. "Threshold effect for the life insurance industry: evidence from OECD countries," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 48(4), pages 799-820, October.
    15. Lahiri, Kajal & Yang, Liu, 2016. "Asymptotic variance of Brier (skill) score in the presence of serial correlation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 125-129.
    16. Qadan, Mahmoud & Idilbi-Bayaa, Yasmeen, 2021. "The day-of-the-week-effect on the volatility of commodities," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    17. Kajal Lahiri & Cheng Yang, 2023. "ROC and PRC Approaches to Evaluate Recession Forecasts," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 19(2), pages 119-148, September.
    18. Feng, Shuaizhang & Sun, Jiandong, 2020. "Misclassification-Errors-Adjusted Sahm Rule for Early Identification of Economic Recession," IZA Discussion Papers 13168, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    19. de Bondt, Gabe J. & Hahn, Elke & Zekaite, Zivile, 2021. "ALICE: Composite leading indicators for euro area inflation cycles," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 687-707.
    20. Lahiri, Kajal & Yang, Liu, 2015. "A further analysis of the conference board’s new Leading Economic Index," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 446-453.
    21. Duo Qin & Sophie van Huellen & Qing Chao Wang & Thanos Moraitis, 2022. "Algorithmic Modelling of Financial Conditions for Macro Predictive Purposes: Pilot Application to USA Data," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-22, April.
    22. Lucio Masserini & Matilde Bini & Alessandro Zeli, 2021. "A Longitudinal Analysis of Riskiness Indicators After the 2008 and 2011 Economic Crises: The Case of Italian Manufacturing," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 156(2), pages 499-513, August.
    23. Kajal Lahiri & Liu Yang, 2023. "Predicting binary outcomes based on the pair-copula construction," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(6), pages 3089-3119, June.
    24. Sun, Jiandong & Feng, Shuaizhang & Hu, Yingyao, 2021. "Misclassification errors in labor force statuses and the early identification of economic recessions," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    25. Seungho Baek & Kwan Yong Lee & Merih Uctum & Seok Hee Oh, 2020. "Robo-Advisors: Machine Learning in Trend-Following ETF Investments," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(16), pages 1-15, August.
    26. Dalia Mansour-Ibrahim, 2023. "Are the Eurozone Financial and Business Cycles Convergent Across Time and Frequency?," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 61(1), pages 389-427, January.

  2. Thomas Gilbert & Shimon Kogan & Lars Lochstoer & Ataman Ozyildirim, 2012. "Investor Inattention and the Market Impact of Summary Statistics," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 58(2), pages 336-350, February.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  3. Ataman Ozyildirim & Brian Schaitkin & Victor Zarnowitz, 2010. "Business cycles in the euro area defined with coincident economic indicators and predicted with leading economic indicators," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1-2), pages 6-28.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  4. Feng Guo & Ataman Ozyildirim & Victor Zarnowitz, 2009. "On the measurement and analysis of aggregate economic activity for China: the coincident economic indicators approach," China Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2(2), pages 159-186.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  5. McGuckin, Robert H. & Ozyildirim, Ataman & Zarnowitz, Victor, 2007. "A More Timely and Useful Index of Leading Indicators," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 25, pages 110-120, January.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  6. Zarnowitz, Victor & Ozyildirim, Ataman, 2006. "Time series decomposition and measurement of business cycles, trends and growth cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 1717-1739, October.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  7. Robert H. McGuckin & Ataman Ozyildirim, 2004. "Real-Time Tests of the Leading Economic Index: Do Changes in the Index Composition Matter?," Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2004(2), pages 171-191.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  8. Krishna, Kala & Ozyildirim, Ataman & Swanson, Norman R., 2003. "Trade, investment and growth: nexus, analysis and prognosis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 479-499, April.
    See citations under working paper version above.
  9. Victor Zarnowitz & Ataman Ozyildirim, 2001. "On the Measurement of Business Cycles and Growth Cycles," Indian Economic Review, Department of Economics, Delhi School of Economics, vol. 36(1), pages 37-54, January.

    Cited by:

    1. Sonia de Lucas Santos & M. Jesús Delgado Rodríguez & Inmaculada Álvarez Ayuso & José Luis Cendejas Bueno, 2011. "Los ciclos económicos internacionales: antecedentes y revisión de la literatura," Cuadernos de Economía - Spanish Journal of Economics and Finance, Asociación Cuadernos de Economía, vol. 34(95), pages 73-84, Agosto.
    2. Calderon, Cesar & Fuentes, Rodrigo, 2010. "Characterizing the business cycles of emerging economies," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5343, The World Bank.
    3. Andrés Maroto-Sánchez & Juan R. Cuadrado-Roura, 2013. "Recent cyclical movements in the spanish productivity. An aggregate and sectoral analysis," Working Papers 06/13, Instituto Universitario de Análisis Económico y Social.
    4. Andres Maroto-Sanchez & Juan R. Cuadrado-Roura, 2013. "The key role of the productive structure in the countercyclical productivity in Spain," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 2(3), pages 86-93.

Chapters

  1. Sergey Smirnov & Ataman Ozyildirim & Paulo Picchetti, 2019. "Introduction," Societies and Political Orders in Transition, in: Sergey Smirnov & Ataman Ozyildirim & Paulo Picchetti (ed.), Business Cycles in BRICS, pages 1-6, Springer.

    Cited by:

    1. Sachi Sharma & Lynetta Binger, 2020. "How can Plants help Fight COVID-19," International Journal of Cell Science & Molecular Biology, Juniper Publishers Inc., vol. 7(1), pages 1-3, May.

Books

  1. Sergey Smirnov & Ataman Ozyildirim & Paulo Picchetti (ed.), 2019. "Business Cycles in BRICS," Societies and Political Orders in Transition, Springer, number 978-3-319-90017-9, March.

    Cited by:

    1. Luysmila Kitrar, Tamara Lipkind, 2020. "Analysis Of Interconnection Of The Indicator Of Economic Attitude And Growth [Анализ Взаимосвязи Показателя Экономического Отношения И Роста]," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 6, pages 8-41, December.
    2. Rahul MENON, 2021. "Determinants of inequality in Indian regular wage employment, 1993–2012," International Labour Review, International Labour Organization, vol. 160(3), pages 477-500, September.

IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.