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Predictability of stock market activity using Google search queries


  • Latoeiro, Pedro
  • Ramos, Sofía B.
  • Veiga, Helena


This paper analyzes whether web search queries predict stock market activity in a sample of the largest European stocks. We provide evidence that i) an increase in web searches for stocks on Google engine is followed by a temporary increase in volatility and volume and a drop in cumulative returns. ii) An increase for web search queries for the market index leads to a decrease in the returns of the index as well as of the stock index futures and an increase in implied volatility. iii) Attention interacts with behavioral biases. The predictability of web searches for return and liquidity is enhanced when firm prices and market prices hit a 52-week high and diminished when the market hits a 52-week low. iv) Investors tend to process more market information than firm specific information in investment decisions, confirming limited attention theory.

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  • Latoeiro, Pedro & Ramos, Sofía B. & Veiga, Helena, 2013. "Predictability of stock market activity using Google search queries," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws130605, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
  • Handle: RePEc:cte:wsrepe:ws130605

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Semen Son-Turan, 2016. "The Impact of Investor Sentiment on the "Leverage Effect"," International Econometric Review (IER), Econometric Research Association, vol. 8(1), pages 4-18, April.
    2. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-405 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Aouadi, Amal & Arouri, Mohamed & Teulon, Frédéric, 2013. "Investor attention and stock market activity: Evidence from France," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 674-681.
    4. Gomes, Pedro & Taamouti, Abderrahim, 2016. "In search of the determinants of European asset market comovements," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 103-117.

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    Behavioral Finance;

    JEL classification:

    • G02 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Finance: Underlying Principles

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