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Volume and Price Patterns Around a Stock's 52-Week Highs and Lows: Theory and Evidence

Author

Listed:
  • Steven Huddart

    () (Smeal College of Business, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania 16802)

  • Mark Lang

    () (Kenan-Flagler Business School, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina 27599)

  • Michelle H. Yetman

    () (Graduate School of Management, University of California at Davis, Davis, California 95616)

Abstract

We provide large sample evidence that past price extremes influence investors' trading decisions. Volume is strikingly higher, in both economic and statistical terms, when the stock price crosses either the upper or lower limit of its past trading range. This increase in volume is more pronounced the longer the time since the stock price last achieved the price extreme, the smaller the firm, the higher the individual investor interest in the stock, and the greater the ambiguity regarding valuation. These results are robust across model specifications and controls for past returns and news arrival. Volume spikes when price crosses either the upper or lower limit of the past trading range, then gradually subsides. After either event, returns are reliably positive and, among small investors, trades classified as buyer-initiated are elevated. Overall, results are more consistent with bounded rationality than with other candidate explanations.

Suggested Citation

  • Steven Huddart & Mark Lang & Michelle H. Yetman, 2009. "Volume and Price Patterns Around a Stock's 52-Week Highs and Lows: Theory and Evidence," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 55(1), pages 16-31, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:55:y:2009:i:1:p:16-31
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    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1080.0920
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Yuan, Yu, 2015. "Market-wide attention, trading, and stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(3), pages 548-564.
    2. Caginalp, Gunduz & DeSantis, Mark, 2017. "Does price efficiency increase with trading volume? Evidence of nonlinearity and power laws in ETFs," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 467(C), pages 436-452.
    3. Malcolm Baker & Xin Pan & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2009. "A Reference Point Theory of Mergers and Acquisitions," NBER Working Papers 15551, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Chang, Chiao-Yi, 2011. "The relationship between the 52-week high of an individual stock and stock market index level: Evidence from Taiwan," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 14-27, February.
    5. repec:eee:finmar:v:33:y:2017:i:c:p:75-101 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Landsman, Wayne R. & Maydew, Edward L. & Thornock, Jacob R., 2012. "The information content of annual earnings announcements and mandatory adoption of IFRS," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 34-54.
    7. Baker, Malcolm & Pan, Xin & Wurgler, Jeffrey, 2012. "The effect of reference point prices on mergers and acquisitions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(1), pages 49-71.
    8. Chiao-Yi Chang, 2013. "Daily momentum profits with firm characteristics and investors’ optimism in the Taiwan market," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 37(2), pages 253-273, April.
    9. Jacobs, Heiko, 2015. "What explains the dynamics of 100 anomalies?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 65-85.
    10. Anastasia Stepanova & Vladislav Savelyev & Malika Shaikhutdinova, 2018. "The Anchoring Effect in Mergers and Acquisitions: Evidence from an Emerging Market," HSE Working papers WP BRP 63/FE/2018, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
    11. Ang, James S. & Ismail, Ahmad K., 2015. "What premiums do target shareholders expect? Explaining negative returns upon offer announcements," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 245-256.
    12. Latoeiro, Pedro & Ramos, Sofía B. & Veiga, Helena, 2013. "Predictability of stock market activity using Google search queries," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws130605, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    13. Qiang Gong & Ming Liu & Qianqiu Liu, 2011. "Is Momentum Really Momentum? International Evidence," Working Papers EMS_2011_22, Research Institute, International University of Japan.
    14. repec:eee:ememar:v:31:y:2017:i:c:p:47-64 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Susana Yu, 2012. "New empirical evidence on the investment success of momentum strategies based on relative stock prices," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 39(1), pages 105-121, July.
    16. Bhootra, Ajay & Hur, Jungshik, 2013. "The timing of 52-week high price and momentum," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 3773-3782.
    17. repec:eee:ecmode:v:66:y:2017:i:c:p:171-183 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Gong, Pu & Weng, Yingliang, 2016. "Value-at-Risk forecasts by a spatiotemporal model in Chinese stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 441(C), pages 173-191.

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