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Investor Inattention and the Market Impact of Summary Statistics

  • Thomas Gilbert

    ()

    (Foster School of Business, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington 98195)

  • Shimon Kogan

    ()

    (McCombs School of Business, University of Texas at Austin, Austin, Texas 78712)

  • Lars Lochstoer

    ()

    (Graduate School of Business, Columbia University, New York, New York 10027)

  • Ataman Ozyildirim

    ()

    (The Conference Board, New York, New York 10022)

We show that U.S. stock and Treasury futures prices respond sharply to recurring stale information releases. In particular, we identify a unique macroeconomic series--the U.S. Leading Economic Index ® (LEI)--which is released monthly and constructed as a summary statistic of previously released inputs. We show that a front-running strategy that trades S&P 500 futures in the direction of the announcement a day before its release and then trades in the opposite direction of the announcement following its release generates an average annual return of close to 8%. These patterns are more pronounced for high beta stocks, for stocks that are more difficult to arbitrage, and during times when investors' sensitivity to firm-specific stale information is high. Treasury futures exhibit similar, albeit less pronounced, price patterns. Other measures of information arrival, such as price volatility and volume, spike following the release. These empirical findings suggest that some investors are inattentive to the stale nature of the information included in the LEI releases, instead interpreting it as new information, and thereby causing temporary yet significant mispricing. This paper was accepted by Brad Barber, Teck Ho, and Terrance Odean, special issue editors.

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File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1110.1475
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Article provided by INFORMS in its journal Management Science.

Volume (Year): 58 (2012)
Issue (Month): 2 (February)
Pages: 336-350

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Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:58:y:2012:i:2:p:336-350
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  1. Hirshleifer, David & Lim, Sonya Seongyeon & Teoh, Siew Hong, 2006. "Driven to distraction: Extraneous events and underreaction to earnings news," MPRA Paper 3110, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 16 Apr 2007.
  2. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2001. "Sticky Information Versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1922, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
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  6. De Long, J. Bradford & Shleifer, Andrei & Summers, Lawrence H. & Waldmann, Robert J., 1990. "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," Scholarly Articles 3725552, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  7. Robert H. McGuckin & Ataman Ozyildirim & Victor Zarnowitz, 2003. "A More Timely and Useful Index of Leading Indicators," Economics Program Working Papers 03-01, The Conference Board, Economics Program.
  8. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Clara Vega, 2003. "Micro Effects of Macro Announcements: Real-Time Price Discovery in Foreign Exchange," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 38-62, March.
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  16. Mitchell, Mark L & Mulherin, J Harold, 1994. " The Impact of Public Information on the Stock Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(3), pages 923-50, July.
  17. Huberman, Gur & Schwert, G William, 1985. "Information Aggregation, Inflation, and the Pricing of Indexed Bonds," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(1), pages 92-114, February.
  18. Gur Huberman, 2001. "Contagious Speculation and a Cure for Cancer: A Nonevent that Made Stock Prices Soar," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(1), pages 387-396, 02.
  19. Anat R. Admati, Paul Pfleiderer, 1988. "A Theory of Intraday Patterns: Volume and Price Variability," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(1), pages 3-40.
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  21. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Clara Vega, 2006. "Real-time price discovery in global stock, bond and foreign exchange markets," International Finance Discussion Papers 871, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  22. Michael J. Fleming & Eli M. Remolona, 1999. "Price Formation and Liquidity in the U.S. Treasury Market: The Response to Public Information," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(5), pages 1901-1915, October.
  23. Lauren Cohen & Andrea Frazzini, 2008. "Economic Links and Predictable Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(4), pages 1977-2011, 08.
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