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Newswire tone-overlay commodity portfolios

Author

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  • Fernandez-Perez, Adrian
  • Fuertes, Ana-Maria
  • Miffre, Joëlle
  • Zhao, Nan

Abstract

This paper introduces the tone-overlay framework for adjusting traditional commodity signals based on the level of salient optimism or pessimism in commodity newswires. By implementing the novel tone-overlay allocation strategy on 26 commodities using traditional allocation signals, we demonstrate that the resulting long-short portfolios yield substantial performance gains compared to the corresponding plain-vanilla traditional portfolios. Our findings suggest that newswire tone provides short-term predictive power for commodity futures returns, beyond well-known commodity characteristics. The tone-overlay portfolios harness a temporary mispricing that reflects an overreaction of commodity futures prices to commodity-specific newswire tone. The outperformance of the tone overlay strengthens with the salience of the newswire tone, consistent with theories of limited investor attention.

Suggested Citation

  • Fernandez-Perez, Adrian & Fuertes, Ana-Maria & Miffre, Joëlle & Zhao, Nan, 2025. "Newswire tone-overlay commodity portfolios," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:178:y:2025:i:c:s0378426625001219
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2025.107501
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    JEL classification:

    • Q02 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Commodity Market
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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