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On the Selection of Leading Economic Indicators for China

Author

Listed:
  • Bill Adams

    (The Conference Board)

  • Pieter Bottelier

    (The Conference Board)

  • Ataman Ozyildirim

    (The Conference Board)

  • Jing Sima-Friedman

    (The Conference Board)

Abstract

Leading indicators represent variables that tend to precede and predict coincident indicators of general economic activity, which as a multivariate concept, can be measured with the help of metrics on employment, production, total income and sales in real (inflation adjusted) terms. In many countries, composite indexes of leading economic indicators (LEI) are used to help predict short-term cyclical fluctuations of the economy in conjunction with composite indexes of coincident economic indicators (CEI). They also serve to analyze short-term macroeconomic dynamics of the business cycle. This paper reviews the available monthly and quarterly leading indicators for China, and develops a composite index following the indicators approach of The Conference Board, which publishes the U.S. LEI. Predicting turning points in the business cycle is extremely difficult, but the long history of research on leading indicators provides empirical evidence that LEIs can help in this task. This paper discusses our selection of leading indicators of the Chinese economy over 1986-2009. We evaluate our selection of leading indicators against the chronology of business and growth cycles.

Suggested Citation

  • Bill Adams & Pieter Bottelier & Ataman Ozyildirim & Jing Sima-Friedman, 2010. "On the Selection of Leading Economic Indicators for China," Economics Program Working Papers 10-02, The Conference Board, Economics Program.
  • Handle: RePEc:cnf:wpaper:1002
    as

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    File URL: http://www.conference-board.org/economics/workingpapers.cfm?pdf=EPWP1002
    File Function: First version, 2010
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mokyr, Joel, 2005. "Long-Term Economic Growth and the History of Technology," Handbook of Economic Growth,in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 17, pages 1113-1180 Elsevier.
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    4. Martin L. Weitzman, 1976. "On the Welfare Significance of National Product in a Dynamic Economy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 90(1), pages 156-162.
    5. Carol A. Corrado & Charles R. Hulten, 2010. "How Do You Measure a "Technological Revolution"?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 99-104, May.
    6. Hulten, Charles R. & Wykoff, Frank C., 1981. "The estimation of economic depreciation using vintage asset prices : An application of the Box-Cox power transformation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 367-396, April.
    7. Thomas Zwick, 2007. "Apprenticeship Training in Germany? Investment or Productivity Driven?," ZEW Discussion Papers 07-023, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
    8. Carol Corrado & John Haltiwanger & Dan Sichel, 2005. "Measuring Capital in the New Economy," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number corr05-1, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Peng Bin, 2016. "Dynamic Development of Regional Disparity in Mainland China: An Experimental Study Based on a Multidimensional Index," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 8(12), pages 1-28, December.
    2. Li, Cheng, 2011. "Consumer expectation and output growth: The case of China," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 113(3), pages 298-300.
    3. Levanon, Gad & Manini, Jean-Claude & Ozyildirim, Ataman & Schaitkin, Brian & Tanchua, Jennelyn, 2015. "Using financial indicators to predict turning points in the business cycle: The case of the leading economic index for the United States," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 426-445.

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