IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/cliomt/v11y2017i1d10.1007_s11698-015-0137-y.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Long waves in prices: new evidence from wavelet analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Marco Gallegati

    () (Università Politecnica delle Marche)

  • Mauro Gallegati

    (Università Politecnica delle Marche)

  • James B. Ramsey

    (New York University)

  • Willi Semmler

    (New School for Social Research
    CEM University of Bielefeld)

Abstract

Abstract In this paper we apply wavelet analysis to study the dynamics of long-term movements in wholesale prices for the USA, the UK and France over the period 1791–2012. The application of wavelet analysis to long-term historical price series allows us to detect long waves in prices whose periodization is remarkably similar to those provided in the literature for the pre-World War II period. Moreover, we find evidence on the existence of long waves in prices also after World War II, a period in which long waves are generally difficult to detect because of the positive trend displayed by prices. The comparison between the long wave components extracted through wavelets and the Christiano–Fitzgerald band-pass filter suggests that wavelets provide a reliable and straightforward technique for analyzing long waves dynamics in time series exhibiting quite complex patterns such as historical data.

Suggested Citation

  • Marco Gallegati & Mauro Gallegati & James B. Ramsey & Willi Semmler, 2017. "Long waves in prices: new evidence from wavelet analysis," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 11(1), pages 127-151, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:cliomt:v:11:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1007_s11698-015-0137-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s11698-015-0137-y
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11698-015-0137-y
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Claude Diebolt & Cédric Doliger, 2008. "New international evidence on the cyclical behaviour of output: Kuznets swings reconsidered," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 42(6), pages 719-737, December.
    2. Englund, Peter & Persson, Torsten & Svensson, Lars E. O., 1992. "Swedish business cycles: 1861-1988," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 343-371, December.
    3. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
    4. David S. Jacks, 2013. "From Boom to Bust: A Typology of Real Commodity Prices in the Long Run," CEH Discussion Papers 013, Centre for Economic History, Research School of Economics, Australian National University.
    5. Zeileis, Achim & Leisch, Friedrich & Hornik, Kurt & Kleiber, Christian, 2002. "strucchange: An R Package for Testing for Structural Change in Linear Regression Models," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 7(i02).
    6. Zarnowitz, Victor & Ozyildirim, Ataman, 2006. "Time series decomposition and measurement of business cycles, trends and growth cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 1717-1739, October.
    7. Andrews, Donald W. K. & Lee, Inpyo & Ploberger, Werner, 1996. "Optimal changepoint tests for normal linear regression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 9-38, January.
    8. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    9. Rasmussen, Steen & Mosekilde, Erik & Holst, Jan, 1989. "Empirical indication of economic long waves in aggregate production," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 279-293, October.
    10. Darne, Olivier & Diebolt, Claude, 2004. "Unit roots and infrequent large shocks: new international evidence on output," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 1449-1465, October.
    11. Erten, Bilge & Ocampo, José Antonio, 2013. "Super Cycles of Commodity Prices Since the Mid-Nineteenth Century," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 14-30.
    12. Bai, Jushan, 1997. "Estimating Multiple Breaks One at a Time," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(03), pages 315-352, June.
    13. Freeman, Chris & Louca, Francisco, 2002. "As Time Goes By: From the Industrial Revolutions to the Information Revolution," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199251056.
    14. Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 2003. "The Band Pass Filter," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 435-465, May.
    15. van Ewijk, Casper, 1982. "A Spectral Analysis of the Kondratieff-Cycle," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(3), pages 468-499.
    16. Everts, Martin, 2006. "Band-Pass Filters," MPRA Paper 2049, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Lucas Bernard & Aleksandr V. Gevorkyan & Thomas I. Palley & Willi Semmler, 2014. "Time scales and mechanisms of economic cycles: a review of theories of long waves," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 2(1), pages 87-107, January.
    18. Ramazan Gencay & Nikola Gradojevic & Faruk Selcuk & Brandon Whitcher, 2010. "Asymmetry of information flow between volatilities across time scales," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(8), pages 895-915.
    19. Baxter, Marianne, 1994. "Real exchange rates and real interest differentials: Have we missed the business-cycle relationship?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 5-37, February.
    20. Lothian, James R & Taylor, Mark P, 1996. "Real Exchange Rate Behavior: The Recent Float from the Perspective of the Past Two Centuries," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 104(3), pages 488-509, June.
    21. Ramsey, James B. & Zhang, Zhifeng, 1995. "The Analysis of Foreign Exchange Data Using Waveform Dictionaries," Working Papers 95-03, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
    22. Patrick M. Crowley, 2007. "A Guide To Wavelets For Economists ," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(2), pages 207-267, April.
    23. Claude Diebolt & Cédric Doliger, 2007. "Retour sur la périodicité d’une nébuleuse :le cycle économique," Working Papers 07-07, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
    24. Metz, Rainer, 2009. "Comment on "Stock markets and business cycle comovement in Germany before world war I: Evidence from spectral analysis"," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 58-67, March.
    25. Claude Diebolt, 2005. "Long Cycles Revisited. An Essay in Econometric History," Working Papers 05-05, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
    26. Jan Reijnders, 1990. "Long Waves in Economic Development," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 366.
    27. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
    28. Rainer Metz, 2011. "Do Kondratieff waves exist? How time series techniques can help to solve the problem," Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 5(3), pages 205-238, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sartorello Spinola, Danilo, 2018. "Instability constraints and development traps: An empirical analysis of growth cycles and economic volatility in Latin America," MERIT Working Papers 002, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    2. repec:eee:dyncon:v:91:y:2018:i:c:p:190-205 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Long waves; Wavelets; Band-pass filter; Wholesale prices;

    JEL classification:

    • B1 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought through 1925
    • B2 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925
    • B5 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - Current Heterodox Approaches
    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:cliomt:v:11:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1007_s11698-015-0137-y. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sonal Shukla) or (Rebekah McClure). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.