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Detrending procedures and cointegration testing: ECM tests under structural breaks

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  • Arranz, Miguel A.
  • Escribano, Álvaro

Abstract

It is well known that all the test for unit roots and cointegration depend on the deterministic elements that are in mean of the variables; constant, trend, breaks, outliers, segmented trends, etc. This is a serious inconvenient for empirical work. In this paper we analyze if those problems could be solved by forming the cointegration tests on extended models, on the components of the series obtained from trend cycle decompositions. We do that by Monte Carlo Simulations allowing for several structural breaks in the data generating process.

Suggested Citation

  • Arranz, Miguel A. & Escribano, Álvaro, 1998. "Detrending procedures and cointegration testing: ECM tests under structural breaks," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 4551, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
  • Handle: RePEc:cte:wsrepe:4551
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mestre, Ricardo & Banerjee, Anindya & Dolado, Juan José, 1997. "ECM tests for cointegration in a single equation framework," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 10607, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    2. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    3. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
    4. Campos, Julia & Ericsson, Neil R. & Hendry, David F., 1996. "Cointegration tests in the presence of structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 187-220, January.
    5. King, Robert G. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1993. "Low frequency filtering and real business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 207-231.
    6. Andrews, Donald W. K. & Lee, Inpyo & Ploberger, Werner, 1996. "Optimal changepoint tests for normal linear regression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 9-38, January.
    7. Alain Guay & Pierre Saint-Amant, 2005. "Do the Hodrick-Prescott and Baxter-King Filters Provide a Good Approximation of Business Cycles?," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 77, pages 133-155.
    8. Park, Joon Y. & Phillips, Peter C.B., 1988. "Statistical Inference in Regressions with Integrated Processes: Part 1," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 4(3), pages 468-497, December.
    9. Franses, Philip Hans & Haldrup, Niels, 1994. "The Effects of Additive Outliers on Tests for Unit Roots and Cointegration," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(4), pages 471-478, October.
    10. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-856, July.
    11. Banerjee, Anindya & Lumsdaine, Robin L & Stock, James H, 1992. "Recursive and Sequential Tests of the Unit-Root and Trend-Break Hypotheses: Theory and International Evidence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 271-287, July.
    12. Bai, Jushan, 1997. "Estimating Multiple Breaks One at a Time," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(3), pages 315-352, June.
    13. Arthur F. Burns & Wesley C. Mitchell, 1946. "Measuring Business Cycles," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn46-1, April.
    14. Leybourne, Stephen J. & C. Mills, Terence & Newbold, Paul, 1998. "Spurious rejections by Dickey-Fuller tests in the presence of a break under the null," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 191-203, August.
    15. Hansen, Bruce E., 1995. "Rethinking the Univariate Approach to Unit Root Testing: Using Covariates to Increase Power," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(5), pages 1148-1171, October.
    16. Lucas, André, 1997. "Cointegration Testing Using Pseudolikelihood Ratio Tests," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(2), pages 149-169, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. García, Ana & Aparicio, Felipe M. & Escribano, Álvaro, 2003. "Range unit root tests," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws031126, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    2. Miguel Arranz & Alvaro Escribano, 2004. "Outliers - robust ECM cointegration tests based on the trend components," Spanish Economic Review, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 243-266, December.

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    Keywords

    Cointegration testing;

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