IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jecomi/v11y2023i9p231-d1235172.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Wavelet Investigation of Periodic Long Swings in the Economy: The Original Data of Kondratieff and Some Important Series of GDP per Capita

Author

Listed:
  • Antonio Focacci

    (School of Economics and Management, University of Bologna, 40126 Bologna, Italy)

Abstract

The existence of fluctuations is part of the narrative, especially when there is a slowdown (or worse, a contraction) in economic activity. The presence of long waves with a period of about 50 years as proposed by Kondratieff is one of the most controversial and fascinating theories about economic cycles. This paper analyses both the original Kondratieff data (from which the hypothesis started) and a dataset that includes GDP per capita for several significant countries. By applying the wavelet analysis (WA), the main objective of the paper is to understand whether it is plausible to support the existence of periodic fluctuations consistent with long cycles theory. The outcomes for Kondratieff’s original dataset do not show the presence of a coherent periodicity for most cases. The same conclusion can be drawn for all the GDP per capita series.

Suggested Citation

  • Antonio Focacci, 2023. "A Wavelet Investigation of Periodic Long Swings in the Economy: The Original Data of Kondratieff and Some Important Series of GDP per Capita," Economies, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-21, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jecomi:v:11:y:2023:i:9:p:231-:d:1235172
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7099/11/9/231/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7099/11/9/231/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gordon, Robert J, 1990. "What Is New-Keynesian Economics?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 28(3), pages 1115-1171, September.
    2. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
    3. Christoph Schleicher, 2002. "An Introduction to Wavelets for Economists," Staff Working Papers 02-3, Bank of Canada.
    4. Growiec, Jakub & McAdam, Peter & Mućk, Jakub, 2018. "Endogenous labor share cycles: Theory and evidence," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 74-93.
    5. Lucia Svabova & Katarina Kramarova & Dominika Chabadova, 2022. "Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Business Environment in Slovakia," Economies, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-22, October.
    6. George Petrakos & Konstantinos Rontos & Chara Vavoura & Ioannis Vavouras, 2023. "The Impact of Recent Economic Crises on Income Inequality and the Risk of Poverty in Greece," Economies, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-23, June.
    7. Aguiar-Conraria, LuI´s & Joana Soares, Maria, 2011. "Business cycle synchronization and the Euro: A wavelet analysis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 477-489, September.
    8. Darne, Olivier & Diebolt, Claude, 2004. "Unit roots and infrequent large shocks: new international evidence on output," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 1449-1465, October.
    9. Kantor, Brian, 1979. "Rational Expectations and Economic Thought," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 17(4), pages 1422-1441, December.
    10. Ramsey, J.B., 2002. "Wavelets in Economics and Finance: Past and Future," Working Papers 02-02, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
    11. Silvestre, Joaquim, 1993. "The Market-Power Foundations of Macroeconomic Policy," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 31(1), pages 105-141, March.
    12. Lucas, Robert E., 1977. "Understanding business cycles," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 7-29, January.
    13. Gençay, Ramazan & Gençay, Ramazan & Selçuk, Faruk & Whitcher, Brandon J., 2001. "An Introduction to Wavelets and Other Filtering Methods in Finance and Economics," Elsevier Monographs, Elsevier, edition 1, number 9780122796708.
    14. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1972. "Expectations and the neutrality of money," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 103-124, April.
    15. Belkhir, Mohamed & Naceur, Sami Ben & Candelon, Bertrand & Wijnandts, Jean-Charles, 2022. "Macroprudential policies, economic growth and banking crises," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    16. Hyman P. Minsky, 1992. "The Financial Instability Hypothesis," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_74, Levy Economics Institute.
    17. Robert J. Barro & Jose F. Ursua, 2008. "Macroeconomic Crises since 1870," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 39(1 (Spring), pages 255-350.
    18. Jan Reijnders, 1990. "Long Waves in Economic Development," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 366.
    19. Ramsey James B., 2002. "Wavelets in Economics and Finance: Past and Future," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(3), pages 1-29, November.
    20. Rainer Metz, 2011. "Do Kondratieff waves exist? How time series techniques can help to solve the problem," Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 5(3), pages 205-238, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gallegati, Marco & Ramsey, James B., 2013. "Structural change and phase variation: A re-examination of the q-model using wavelet exploratory analysis," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 60-73.
    2. Marco Gallegati & Mauro Gallegati & James B. Ramsey & Willi Semmler, 2017. "Long waves in prices: new evidence from wavelet analysis," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 11(1), pages 127-151, January.
    3. Marco Gallegati & Mauro Gallegati, 2005. "Wavelet variance and correlation analyses of output in G7 countries," Macroeconomics 0512017, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Patrick M. Crowley, 2007. "A Guide To Wavelets For Economists," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(2), pages 207-267, April.
    5. Patrick Crowley, 2005. "An intuitive guide to wavelets for economists," Econometrics 0503017, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Jens J. Krüger, 2021. "A Wavelet Evaluation of Some Leading Business Cycle Indicators for the German Economy," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 17(3), pages 293-319, December.
    7. Ibrahim Ahamada & Philippe Jolivaldt, 2010. "Classical vs wavelet-based filters Comparative study and application to business cycle," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 10027, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    8. Stan Plessis & Gideon Rand & Kevin Kotzé, 2015. "Measuring Core Inflation in South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 83(4), pages 527-548, December.
    9. Luca De Benedictis & Marco Gallegati, 2005. "Trade balance and terms of trade in U.S.: a time-scale decomposition analysis," International Trade 0512016, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Aguiar-Conraria, Luis & Brinca, Pedro & Gudjonsson, Haukur & Soares, Joana, 2015. "Optimal currency area and business cycle synchronization across U.S. states," MPRA Paper 62125, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Ahmed, Walid M.A., 2022. "On the higher-order moment interdependence of stock and commodity markets: A wavelet coherence analysis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 135-151.
    12. Chakrabarty, Anindya & De, Anupam & Gunasekaran, Angappa & Dubey, Rameshwar, 2015. "Investment horizon heterogeneity and wavelet: Overview and further research directions," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 429(C), pages 45-61.
    13. Francis In & Sangbae Kim, 2012. "An Introduction to Wavelet Theory in Finance:A Wavelet Multiscale Approach," World Scientific Books, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., number 8431.
    14. Huang, Yuting & Li, Qiang & Liow, Kim Hiang & Zhou, Xiaoxia, 2020. "Is Housing the Business Cycle? A Multiresolution Analysis for OECD Countries," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    15. María del Carmen Valls Martínez & Pedro Antonio Martín Cervantes, 2021. "Testing the Resilience of CSR Stocks during the COVID-19 Crisis: A Transcontinental Analysis," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(5), pages 1-24, March.
    16. Dimitrios Panagiotou & Athanassios Stavrakoudis, 2023. "Price dependence among the major EU extra virgin olive oil markets: a time scale analysis," Review of Agricultural, Food and Environmental Studies, Springer, vol. 104(1), pages 1-26, March.
    17. Akan, Taner & Gündüz, Halil İbrahim & Emirmahmutoğlu, Furkan & Işık, Ali Haydar, 2023. "Disaggregating renewable energy-growth nexus: W-ARDL and W-Toda-Yamamoto approaches," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
    18. Selçuk, Faruk & Gençay, Ramazan, 2006. "Intraday dynamics of stock market returns and volatility," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 367(C), pages 375-387.
    19. Luís Aguiar-Conraria & Maria Joana Soares, 2014. "The Continuous Wavelet Transform: Moving Beyond Uni- And Bivariate Analysis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(2), pages 344-375, April.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jecomi:v:11:y:2023:i:9:p:231-:d:1235172. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.