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International main precious metals futures price forecasting based on decomposition-combinatorial time series model

Author

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  • Zhang, Zihan
  • Dong, Xiaojuan
  • An, Haigang
  • Qi, Hai
  • An, Sufang
  • Dong, Zhiliang

Abstract

In the complex and volatile macroeconomic environment, precious metals play an important role in investment risk management because of their value preservation, value-added, and hedging functions. If investors can effectively predict price fluctuations in the precious metals market and thus optimize their investment portfolio strategies in time, they may be able to avoid market risks. In this paper, the futures prices of three international precious metals on the New York Mercantile Exchange of the Wind Database from 2014 to 2024 are taken as examples. First of all, the time-varying characteristics of non-pervasive, non-Gaussian, aging and delay are obtained for precious metals. Then the trend term, seasonal term, and residual term of the price series are modeled with the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model, the Exponen Tial Smoothing (ETS) model, and the Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) model, respectively, and the results are summarized to form a forecast of the futures prices of precious metals for the next 100 days. The results show that the error of the combination model for the three precious metal price predictions is less than 0.03, and the model fit is more than 0.98, indicating that the decomposition-combination model is suitable for predicting the precious metal futures prices. According to the results of the study, gold and silver have investment value in a short period, while the investment value of platinum is not obvious. Corresponding investment advice for investors is also given.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhang, Zihan & Dong, Xiaojuan & An, Haigang & Qi, Hai & An, Sufang & Dong, Zhiliang, 2026. "International main precious metals futures price forecasting based on decomposition-combinatorial time series model," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:81:y:2026:i:c:s1062940825001810
    DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2025.102541
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    References listed on IDEAS

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