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Construction of composite leading indicator for the Slovak economy

  • Miroslav Klúcik

    ()

  • Ján Haluška

    ()

    (Institute of Informatics and Statistics, Socio-economic Analyses and Forecasts Division, Dúbravská cesta 3, 845 24 Bratislava, Slovak Republic)

Registered author(s):

    Cyclical performance of economies in a turbulent environment is forcing researchers to search for early signals of turning points between the phases of slowdowns and accelerations. The most appropriate tool to solve this problem is the composite leading indicator (CLI), which is an aggregate index of several individual indicators proved to be statistical relevant for analyzing and forecasting of significant macro-economic indicators (reference series). The leading indicator provides qualitative information of the most probable performance of a reference cycle (i.e. GDP, Industrial production) with a significant lead-time of several months. INFOSTAT (the research institution of the Statistical Office of the Slovak Republic) is about to create and use its own periodically published composite leading indicator (now the only CLI for Slovakia is published by OECD) as a source of new information about so far non-investigated economic relations with the aim to improve the quality of short-term forecasts.

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    Article provided by Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration in its journal Analele Stiintifice ale Universitatii "Alexandru Ioan Cuza" din Iasi.

    Volume (Year): 55 (2008)
    Issue (Month): (November)
    Pages: 363-370

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    Handle: RePEc:aic:journl:y:2008:v:55:p:363-370
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    1. Forni, Mario & Hallin, Marc & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2000. "Reference Cycles: The NBER Methodology Revisited," CEPR Discussion Papers 2400, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Victor Zarnowitz & Ataman Ozyildirim, 2002. "Time Series Decomposition and Measurement of Business Cycles, Trends and Growth Cycles," NBER Working Papers 8736, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Stephen G. Hall & Nicholas G. Zonzilos, 2003. "An Indicator Measuring Underlying Economic Activity in Greece," Working Papers 04, Bank of Greece.
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