Why is it so difficult to beat the random walk forecast of exchange rates?
Citations
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Cited by:
- JamesR. Lothian & MarkP. Taylor, 2008.
"Real Exchange Rates Over the Past Two Centuries: How Important is the Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson Effect?,"
Economic Journal,
Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(532), pages 1742-1763, October.
- Lothian, James R. & Taylor, Mark P., 2006. "Real Exchange Rates Over the Past Two Centuries : How Important is the Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson Effect?," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 768, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
- Stefan Reitz & Frank Westerhoff, 2007. "Commodity price cycles and heterogeneous speculators: a STAR–GARCH model," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 33(2), pages 231-244, September.
- Paul De Grauwe & Marianna Grimaldi, 2003. "Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market in a Model with Noise Traders," Working Papers 162003, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
- Stillwagon, Josh R., 2016.
"Non-linear exchange rate relationships: An automated model selection approach with indicator saturation,"
The North American Journal of Economics and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 84-109.
- Josh R. Stillwagon, 2014. "Non-Linear Exchange Rate Relationships: An Automated Model Selection Approach with Indicator Saturation," Working Papers 1405, Trinity College, Department of Economics.
- Nikolaou, Kleopatra, 2008. "The behaviour of the real exchange rate: Evidence from regression quantiles," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 664-679, May.
- Stefan Reitz & Jan C. Rülke & Mark P. Taylor, 2011.
"On the Nonlinear Influence of Reserve Bank of Australia Interventions on Exchange Rates,"
The Economic Record,
The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 87(278), pages 465-479, September.
- Reitz, Stefan & Ruelke, Jan C. & Taylor, Mark P., 2010. "On the nonlinear influence of Reserve Bank of Australia interventions on exchange rates," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2010,08, Deutsche Bundesbank.
- Nelson C. Mark & Donggyu Sul, 2004.
"The Use of Predictive Regressions at Alternative Horizons in Finance and Economics,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0298, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Nelson C. Mark & Donggyu Sul, 2004. "The Use of Predictive Regressions at Alternative Horizons in Finance and Economics," Finance 0409032, EconWPA.
- Galvão, Ana Beatriz, 2013.
"Changes in predictive ability with mixed frequency data,"
International Journal of Forecasting,
Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 395-410.
- Ana Beatriz Galvão, 2007. "Changes in Predictive Ability with Mixed Frequency Data," Working Papers 595, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
- Koh, Seng Kee & Fong, Wai Mun & Chan, Fabrice, 2007. "A Cardan's discriminant approach to predicting currency crashes," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 131-148, February.
- Frédérique Bec & Anders Rahbek & Neil Shephard, 2008.
"The ACR Model: A Multivariate Dynamic Mixture Autoregression,"
Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics,
Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 70(5), pages 583-618, October.
- Frédérique Bec & Anders Rahbek & Neil Shephard, 2008. "The ACR model: a multivariate dynamic mixture autoregression," THEMA Working Papers 2008-11, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
- Chien-Chung Nieh & Yu-Shan Wang, 2005. "ARDL Approach to the Exchange Rate Overshooting in Taiwan," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 55-71, August.
- Westerhoff Frank H. & Reitz Stefan, 2003.
"Nonlinearities and Cyclical Behavior: The Role of Chartists and Fundamentalists,"
Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics,
De Gruyter, vol. 7(4), pages 1-15, December.
- Reitz, Stefan & Westerhoff, Frank, 2003. "Nonlinearities and Cyclical Behavior: The Role of Chartists and Fundamentalists," CFS Working Paper Series 2003/10, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
- repec:eee:phsmap:v:493:y:2018:i:c:p:239-252 is not listed on IDEAS
- Barbara Rossi, 2013.
"Exchange Rate Predictability,"
Journal of Economic Literature,
American Economic Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1063-1119, December.
- Barbara Rossi, 2013. "Exchange rate predictability," Economics Working Papers 1369, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
- Rossi, Barbara, 2013. "Exchange Rate Predictability," CEPR Discussion Papers 9575, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Barbara Rossi, 2013. "Exchange Rate Predictability," Working Papers 690, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
- Carlo Altavilla & Paul De Grauwe, 2010.
"Forecasting and combining competing models of exchange rate determination,"
Applied Economics,
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(27), pages 3455-3480.
- Carlo Altavilla & Paul De Grauwe, 2006. "Forecasting and Combining Competing Models of Exchange rate Determination," Discussion Papers 5_2006, D.E.S. (Department of Economic Studies), University of Naples "Parthenope", Italy.
- Carlo Altavilla & Paul De Grauwe, 2006. "Forecasting and Combining Competing Models of Exchange Rate Determination," CESifo Working Paper Series 1747, CESifo Group Munich.
- Ivan Paya & David Peel, 2005.
"The process followed by PPP data. On the properties of linearity tests,"
Applied Economics,
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(21), pages 2515-2522.
- Ivan Paya & David A. Peel, 2005. "The Process Followed By Ppp Data. On The Properties Of Linearity Tests," Working Papers. Serie AD 2005-23, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
- Basci Erdem & Caner Mehmet, 2005.
"Are Real Exchange Rates Nonlinear or Nonstationary? Evidence from a New Threshold Unit Root Test,"
Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics,
De Gruyter, vol. 9(4), pages 1-21, December.
- Erdem Basci & Mehmet Caner, 2005. "Are Real Exchange Rates Nonlinear or Nonstationary? Evidence from a new Threshold Unit Root Test," International Finance 0512001, EconWPA.
- Chang, Tsangyao & Tzeng, Han-Wen, 2011. "Long-run purchasing power parity with asymmetric adjustment: Further evidence from nine transition countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 1383-1391, May.
- Wollmershauser, Timo, 2006.
"Should central banks react to exchange rate movements? An analysis of the robustness of simple policy rules under exchange rate uncertainty,"
Journal of Macroeconomics,
Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 493-519, September.
- Timo WOLLMERSHAEUSER, "undated". "Should Central Banks React to Exchange Rate Movements? An Analysis of the Robustness of Simple Policy Rules under Exchange Rate Uncertainty," EcoMod2004 330600161, EcoMod.
- Wollmershäuser, Timo, 2006. "Should central banks react to exchange rate movements? An analysis of the robustness of simple policy rules under exchange rate uncertainty," Munich Reprints in Economics 19716, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
- Rangvid, Jesper & Schmeling, Maik & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2014.
"Dividend Predictability Around the World,"
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis,
Cambridge University Press, vol. 49(5-6), pages 1255-1277, December.
- Jesper Rangvid & Maik Schmeling & Andreas Schrimpf, 2010. "Dividend predictability around the world," CREATES Research Papers 2010-03, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
- Wu, Jyh-Lin & Wang, Yi-Chiuan, 2013. "Fundamentals, forecast combinations and nominal exchange-rate predictability," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 129-145.
- Juan Carlos Cuestas, 2009.
"Purchasing power parity in Central and Eastern European countries: an analysis of unit roots and nonlinearities,"
Applied Economics Letters,
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(1), pages 87-94.
- Juan Carlos Cuestas, 2007. "Purchasing Power Parity In Central And Eastern European Countries: An Analysis Of Unit Roots And Nonlinearities," Working Papers. Serie AD 2007-22, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
- Byrne, Joseph P. & Korobilis, Dimitris & Ribeiro, Pinho J., 2016.
"Exchange rate predictability in a changing world,"
Journal of International Money and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 1-24.
- Byrne, Joseph P & Korobilis, Dimitris & Ribeiro, Pinho J, 2014. "Exchange Rate Predictability in a Changing World," MPRA Paper 53684, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Joseph P. Byrne & Dimitris Korobilis & Pinho J. Ribeiro, 2014. "Exchange Rate Predictability in a Changing World," Working Paper series 06_14, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
- Byrne, Joseph P. & Korobilis, Dimitris & Ribeiro, Pinho J., 2014. "Exchange Rate Predictability in a Changing World," SIRE Discussion Papers 2014-021, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
- Joseph Byrne & Dimitris Korobilis & Pinho Ribeiro, 2014. "Exchange Rate Predictability in a Changing World," Papers 1403.0627, arXiv.org.
- Joseph P. Byrne & Dimitris Korobilis & Pinho J. Ribeiro, 2014. "Exchange Rate Predictability in a Changing World," Working Papers 2014_03, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
- Frédérique Bec & Mélika Ben Salem & Ronald MacDonald, 2006.
"Real exchange rates and real interest rates : a nonlinear perspective,"
Recherches économiques de Louvain,
De Boeck Université, vol. 72(2), pages 177-194.
- Bec, F. & Salem, M.B. & MacDonald, R., 1999. "Real Exchange Rates and Real Interest Rates: a nonlinear Perspective," Papers 99-17, Paris X - Nanterre, U.F.R. de Sc. Ec. Gest. Maths Infor..
- F. Bec & M. Ben Salem & R. MacDonald, 1999. "Real exchange rates and real interest rates : A nonlinear perspective," THEMA Working Papers 99-17, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
- Frédérique BEC & Mélika BEN SALEM & Ronald MACDONALD, 2006. "Real exchange rates and real interest rates : a nonlinear perspective," Discussion Papers (REL - Recherches Economiques de Louvain) 2006024, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
- Clark, Todd E. & McCracken, Michael W., 2015.
"Nested forecast model comparisons: A new approach to testing equal accuracy,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 186(1), pages 160-177.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2009. "Nested forecast model comparisons: a new approach to testing equal accuracy," Research Working Paper RWP 09-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2009. "Nested forecast model comparisons: a new approach to testing equal accuracy," Working Papers 2009-050, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Daniel Buncic, 2012.
"Understanding forecast failure of ESTAR models of real exchange rates,"
Empirical Economics,
Springer, vol. 43(1), pages 399-426, August.
- Buncic, Daniel, 2009. "Understanding forecast failure of ESTAR models of real exchange rates," MPRA Paper 16526, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Buncic, Daniel, 2009. "Understanding forecast failure in ESTAR models of real exchange rates," MPRA Paper 13121, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Daniel Buncic, 2009. "Understanding forecast failure of ESTAR models of real exchange rates," EERI Research Paper Series EERI_RP_2009_18, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
- Corrado, L. & Marcus Miller & Lei Zhang, 2002.
"Exchange Rate Monitoring Bands: Theory and Policy,"
Cambridge Working Papers in Economics
0209, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Luisa Corrado & Marcus Miller & Lei Zhang, 2007. "Exchange Rate Monitoring Bands: Theory and Policy," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 146, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
- Corrado, Luisa & Miller, Marcus & Zhang, Lei, 2002. "Exchange Rate Monitoring Bands: Theory and Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 3337, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Frédérique Bec & Mélika Ben Salem & Marine Carrasco, 2010.
"Detecting Mean Reversion in Real Exchange Rates from a Multiple Regime star Model,"
Annals of Economics and Statistics,
GENES, issue 99-100, pages 395-427.
- Frederique Bec & Melika Ben Salem & Marine Carrasco, 2004. "Detecting Mean Reversion in Real Exchange Rates from a Multiple Regime STAR Model," RCER Working Papers 509, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
- Frédérique Bec & Mélika Ben Salem & Marine Carrasco, 2010. "Detecting Mean Reversion in Real Exchange Rates from a Multiple Regime STAR Model," Post-Print hal-00685810, HAL.
- Frédérique Bec & Mélika Ben Salem & Marine Carrasco, 2009. "Detecting Mean Reversion in Real Exchange Rates from a Multiple Regime STAR Model," CIRANO Working Papers 2009s-18, CIRANO.
- Bertram, Philip & Ma, Jun & Sibbertsen, Philipp, 2015. "Real exchange rates and economic fundamentals: An investigation based on a Markov-STAR model," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-565, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
- Jaehun Chung & Yongmiao Hong, 2013. "Model-Free Evaluation of Directional Predictability in Foreign Exchange," WISE Working Papers 2013-10-14, Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics (WISE), Xiamen University.
- Christopher J. Neely & Lucio Sarno, 2002.
"How well do monetary fundamentals forecast exchange rates?,"
Review,
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 51-74.
- Christopher J. Neely & Lucio Sarno, 2002. "How well do monetary fundamentals forecast exchange rates?," Working Papers 2002-007, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Antonio I. Garcia Pascual, 2003.
"What Do We Know about Recent Exchange Rate Models? In-Sample Fit and Out-of-Sample Performance Evaluated,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
902, CESifo Group Munich.
- Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie David & Garcia Pascual, Antonio, 2003. "What Do We Know about Recent Exchange Rate Models? In-Sample Fit and Out-of-Sample Performance Evaluated," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt8ds2g7qg, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
- Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie & Garcia Pascual, Antonio, 2003. "What Do We Know about Recent Exchange Rate Models? In-Sample Fit and Out-of-Sample Performance Evaluated," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt0jc800x9, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
- Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie & Garcia Pascual, Antonio, 2003. "What Do We Know about Recent Exchange Rate Models? In-Sample Fit and Out-of-Sample Performance Evaluated," Santa Cruz Center for International Economics, Working Paper Series qt0jc800x9, Center for International Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
- Lukas Menkhoff & Mark P. Taylor, 2007.
"The Obstinate Passion of Foreign Exchange Professionals: Technical Analysis,"
Journal of Economic Literature,
American Economic Association, vol. 45(4), pages 936-972, December.
- Menkhoff, Lukas & Taylor, Mark P., 2006. "The Obstinate Passion of Foreign Exchange Professionals: Technical Analysis," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-352, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
- Menkhoff, Lukas & Taylor, Mark P., 2006. "The Obstinate Passion of Foreign Exchange Professionals : Technical Analysis," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 769, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
- Alfred Haug & Syed Basher, 2011.
"Linear or nonlinear cointegration in the purchasing power parity relationship?,"
Applied Economics,
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(2), pages 185-196.
- Alfred A. Haug & Syed A. Basher, 2007. "Linear or Nonlinear Cointegration in the Purchasing Power Parity Relationship?," Working Papers 0712, University of Otago, Department of Economics, revised Aug 2007.
- Aloy, Marcel & Boutahar, Mohamed & Gente, Karine & Péguin-Feissolle, Anne, 2011.
"Purchasing power parity and the long memory properties of real exchange rates: Does one size fit all?,"
Economic Modelling,
Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 1279-1290, May.
- Marcel Aloy & Mohamed Boutahar & Karine Gente & Anne Peguin-Feissolle, 2011. "Purchasing power parity and the long memory properties of real exchange rates: does one size fit all?," Working Papers halshs-00559170, HAL.
- Preminger, Arie & Franck, Raphael, 2007.
"Forecasting exchange rates: A robust regression approach,"
International Journal of Forecasting,
Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 71-84.
- PREMINGER, Arie & FRANCK, Raphael, 2005. "Forecasting exchange rates: a robust regression approach," CORE Discussion Papers 2005025, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- PREMINGER, Arie & FRANCK, Raphael, 2007. "Forecasting exchange rates: a robust regression approach," CORE Discussion Papers RP 1917, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Charles Engel & Kenneth D. West, 2005.
"Exchange Rates and Fundamentals,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(3), pages 485-517, June.
- Charles Engel & Kenneth D. West, 2003. "Exchange rates and fundamentals," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
- Engel, Charles & West, Kenneth D., 2003. "Exchange rates and fundamentals," Working Paper Series 248, European Central Bank.
- Charles Engel & Kenneth D. West, 2004. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals," NBER Working Papers 10723, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Menkhoff, Lukas & Rebitzky, Rafael R., 2008.
"Investor sentiment in the US-dollar: Longer-term, non-linear orientation on PPP,"
Journal of Empirical Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 455-467, June.
- Menkhoff, Lukas & Rebitzky, Rafael, 2007. "Investor sentiment in the US-dollar: longer-term, nonlinear orientation on PPP," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-376, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
- Kim, Hyeongwoo & Ryu, Deockhyun, 2015.
"A nonparametric study of real exchange rate persistence over a century,"
International Review of Economics & Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 406-418.
- Hyeongwoo Kim & Deockhyun Ryu, 2013. "A Nonparametric Study of Real Exchange Rate Persistence over a Century," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2013-08, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
- Hyeongwoo Kim & Deockhyun Ryu, 2014. "A Nonparametric Study of Real Exchange Rate Persistence over a Century," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2014-15, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
- Mark P. Taylor, 2004.
"Is Official Exchange Rate Intervention Effective?,"
Economica,
London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 71, pages 1-11, February.
- Taylor, Mark P, 2003. "Is Official Exchange Rate Intervention Effective?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3758, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Tasadduq Imam & Kevin Tickle & Abdullahi Ahmed & William Guo, 2012. "Linear Relationship Between The Aud/Usd Exchange Rate And The Respective Stock Market Indices: A Computational Finance Perspective," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(1), pages 19-42, January.
- Roman Hotvath, 2005. "Real Equilibrium Exchange Rate Estimates: To What Extent Applicable for Setting the Central Parity?," International Finance 0509006, EconWPA.
- Jaehun Chung & Yongmiao Hong, 2007. "Model-free evaluation of directional predictability in foreign exchange markets," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(5), pages 855-889.
- David Ubilava, 2012. "El Niño, La Niña, and world coffee price dynamics," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 43(1), pages 17-26, January.
- Alfred Haug & Syed Basher & Perry Sadorsky, 2016.
"The impact of oil price shocks on exchange rates: A non-linear smooth-transition approach,"
EcoMod2016
9226, EcoMod.
- Haug, Alfred A. & Basher, Syed Abul, 2017. "Exchange rates of oil exporting countries and global oil price shocks: A nonlinear smooth-transition approach," MPRA Paper 83205, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Faust, Jon & Rogers, John H. & H. Wright, Jonathan, 2003.
"Exchange rate forecasting: the errors we've really made,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 35-59, May.
- Jon Faust & John H. Rogers & Jonathan H. Wright, 2001. "Exchange rate forecasting: the errors we've really made," International Finance Discussion Papers 714, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Lucchetti, Riccardo & Palomba, Giulio, 2009. "Nonlinear adjustment in US bond yields: An empirical model with conditional heteroskedasticity," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 659-667, May.
- Kim, Bong-Han & Min, Hong-Ghi & Moh, Young-Kyu, 2010. "Nonlinear dynamics in exchange rate deviations from the monetary fundamentals: An empirical study," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 1167-1177, September.
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- Atsushi Inoue & Lutz Kilian, 2005.
"In-Sample or Out-of-Sample Tests of Predictability: Which One Should We Use?,"
Econometric Reviews,
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(4), pages 371-402.
- Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2002. "In-sample or out-of-sample tests of predictability: which one should we use?," Working Paper Series 0195, European Central Bank.
- Inoue, Atsushi & Kilian, Lutz, 2002. "In-Sample or Out-of-Sample Tests of Predictability: Which One Should We Use?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3671, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Berka, Martin, 2005. "General Equilibrium Model of Arbitrage Trade and Real Exchange Rate Persistence," MPRA Paper 234, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Giorgio Canarella & Stephen M. Miller & Stephen K. Pollard, 2012.
"Purchasing Power Parity between the UK and the Euro Area,"
Working papers
2012-46, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
- Giorgio Canarella & Stephen M. Miller & Stephen K. Pollard, 2012. "Purchasing Power Parity between the UK and the Euro Area," Working Papers 1208, University of Nevada, Las Vegas , Department of Economics.
- Bekiros, Stelios D., 2014.
"Exchange rates and fundamentals: Co-movement, long-run relationships and short-run dynamics,"
Journal of Banking & Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 117-134.
- Stelios Bekiros, 2011. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Co-Movement, Long-Run Relationships and Short-run Dynamics," Economics Working Papers ECO2011/21, European University Institute.
- Craig, Lee & Holt, Matthew T., 2012. "The Role of Mechanical Refrigeration in Spatial and Temporal Price Dynamics for Regional U.S. Egg Markets, 1880–1911," MPRA Paper 39554, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Leitner, Johannes & Schmidt, Robert & Bofinger, Peter, 2003.
"Biases of professional exchange rate forecasts: Psychological explanations and an experimentally based comparison to novices,"
W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers
39, University of Würzburg, Chair for Monetary Policy and International Economics.
- Bofinger, Peter & Leitner, Johannes & Schmidt, Robert, 2004. "Biases of Professional Exchange Rate Forecasts: Psychological Explanations and an Experimentally-Based Comparison to Novices," CEPR Discussion Papers 4230, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Oscar Jorda, "undated".
"Carry Trade,"
Working Papers
1018, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
- Oscar Jorda, 2010. "Carry Trade," Working Papers 1019, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
- Clark, Todd E. & West, Kenneth D., 2006.
"Using out-of-sample mean squared prediction errors to test the martingale difference hypothesis,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 155-186.
- Todd E. Clark & Kenneth D. West, 2004. "Using out-of-sample mean squared prediction errors to test the Martingale difference hypothesis," Research Working Paper RWP 04-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
- David A. Peel & Ivan Paya, 2006.
"Temporal aggregation of an ESTAR process: some implications for purchasing power parity adjustment,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(5), pages 655-668.
- Ivan Paya & David A. Peel, 2004. "Temporal Aggregation Of An Estar Process: Some Implications For Purchasing Power Parity Adjustment," Working Papers. Serie AD 2004-25, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
- Georg H. Strasser, 2010.
"The Efficiency of the Global Markets for Final Goods and Productive Capabilities,"
Boston College Working Papers in Economics
766, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 31 Jan 2012.
- Georg Strasser, 2011. "The Efficiency of the Global Markets for Final Goods and Productive Capabilities," 2011 Meeting Papers 576, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Works, Richard Floyd, 2016. "Econometric modeling of exchange rate determinants by market classification: An empirical analysis of Japan and South Korea using the sticky-price monetary theory," MPRA Paper 76382, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Ahmad, Yamin & Lo, Ming Chien & Mykhaylova, Olena, 2013.
"Volatility and persistence of simulated DSGE real exchange rates,"
Economics Letters,
Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 38-41.
- Yamin Ahmad & Ming Chien Lo & Olena Mykhaylova, 2011. "Volatility and Persistence of Simulated DSGE Real Exchange Rates," Working Papers 11-01, UW-Whitewater, Department of Economics, revised Nov 2012.
- Sager, Michael & Taylor, Mark P., 2014. "Generating currency trading rules from the term structure of forward foreign exchange premia," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 230-250.
- Domenico Ferraro & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Barbara Rossi, 2011.
"Can oil prices forecast exchange rates?,"
Working Papers
11-34, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Domenico Ferraro & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Barbara Rossi, 2012. "Can Oil Prices Forecast Exchange Rates?," NBER Working Papers 17998, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Domenico Ferraro & Ken Rogoff & Barbara Rossi, 2011. "Can oil prices forecast exchange rates?," Economics Working Papers 1461, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jan 2015.
- Ferraro, Domenico & Rogoff, Kenneth & Rossi, Barbara, 2011. "Can Oil Prices Forecast Exchange Rates?," CEPR Discussion Papers 8635, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Domenico Ferraro & Kenneth Rogoff & Barbara Rossi, 2015. "Can Oil Prices Forecast Exchange Rates?," Working Papers 803, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
- Domenico Ferraro & Ken Rogoff & Barbara Rossi, 2011. "Can Oil Prices Forecast Exchange Rates?," Working Papers 11-05, Duke University, Department of Economics.
- Xiong, Tao & Bao, Yukun & Hu, Zhongyi, 2013. "Beyond one-step-ahead forecasting: Evaluation of alternative multi-step-ahead forecasting models for crude oil prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 405-415.
- Joseph V. Balagtas & Matthew T. Holt, 2009.
"The Commodity Terms of Trade, Unit Roots, and Nonlinear Alternatives: A Smooth Transition Approach,"
American Journal of Agricultural Economics,
Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 91(1), pages 87-105.
- Goodwin, Barry K. & Holt, Matthew T. & Prestemon, Jeffery P., 2008. "The Commodity Terms of Trade, Unit Roots, and Nonlinear Alternatives: A Smooth Transition Approach," MPRA Paper 9684, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Barry A. Goss & S. Gulay Avsar, 2016. "Can Economists Forecast Exchange Rates? The Debate Re-Visited: The Case of the USD/GBP Market," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(1), pages 14-28, March.
- Marmer, Vadim, 2008.
"Nonlinearity, nonstationarity, and spurious forecasts,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 1-27, January.
- Vadim Marmer, 2005. "Nonlinearity, Nonstationarity and Spurious Forecasts," Econometrics 0503002, EconWPA, revised 15 Dec 2005.
- Marmer, Vadim, 2009. "Nonlinearity, Nonstationarity, and Spurious Forecasts," Microeconomics.ca working papers vadim_marmer-2009-60, Vancouver School of Economics, revised 03 Nov 2009.
- Frommel, Michael & MacDonald, Ronald & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2005.
"Markov switching regimes in a monetary exchange rate model,"
Economic Modelling,
Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 485-502, May.
- Michael Froemmel & Ronald Macdonald & Lukas Menkhoff, 2004. "Markov Switching Regimes In A Monetary Exchange Rate Model," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2004 119, Royal Economic Society.
- Todd E. Clark & Kenneth D. West, 2005. "Using Out-of-Sample Mean Squared Prediction Errors to Test the Martingale Difference," NBER Technical Working Papers 0305, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jian Wang & Jason J. Wu, 2012.
"The Taylor Rule and Forecast Intervals for Exchange Rates,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(1), pages 103-144, February.
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