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Citations for "Why is it so difficult to beat the random walk forecast of exchange rates?"

by Kilian, Lutz & Taylor, Mark P.

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  1. JamesR. Lothian & MarkP. Taylor, 2008. "Real Exchange Rates Over the Past Two Centuries: How Important is the Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson Effect?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(532), pages 1742-1763, October.
  2. Robinson Kruse & Michael Frömmel & Lukas Menkhoff & Philipp Sibbertsen, 2012. "What do we know about real exchange rate nonlinearities?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(2), pages 457-474, October.
  3. Månsson, Kristofer & Sjölander, Pär, 2014. "Testing for nonlinear panel unit roots under cross-sectional dependency — With an application to the PPP hypothesis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 121-132.
  4. Stefan Reitz & Frank Westerhoff, 2007. "Commodity price cycles and heterogeneous speculators: a STAR–GARCH model," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 33(2), pages 231-244, September.
  5. Paul De Grauwe & Marianna Grimaldi, 2003. "Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market in a Model with Noise Traders," Working Papers 162003, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  6. Stillwagon, Josh R., 2016. "Non-linear exchange rate relationships: An automated model selection approach with indicator saturation," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 84-109.
  7. Nikolaou, Kleopatra, 2008. "The behaviour of the real exchange rate: Evidence from regression quantiles," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 664-679, May.
  8. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert, 2013. "Is there a homogeneous causality pattern between oil prices and currencies of oil importers and exporters?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 665-678.
  9. Dominguez, Kathryn M.E. & Panthaki, Freyan, 2006. "What defines `news' in foreign exchange markets?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 168-198, February.
  10. Stefan Reitz & Jan C. Rülke & Mark P. Taylor, 2011. "On the Nonlinear Influence of Reserve Bank of Australia Interventions on Exchange Rates," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 87(278), pages 465-479, 09.
  11. A M Spiru, 2007. "Inflation convergence in the new EU member states," Working Papers 590260, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
  12. Nelson C. Mark & Donggyu Sul, 2004. "The Use of Predictive Regressions at Alternative Horizons in Finance and Economics," NBER Technical Working Papers 0298, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Barbara Rossi, 2013. "Exchange Rate Predictability," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1063-1119, December.
  14. Galvão, Ana Beatriz, 2013. "Changes in predictive ability with mixed frequency data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 395-410.
  15. Koh, Seng Kee & Fong, Wai Mun & Chan, Fabrice, 2007. "A Cardan's discriminant approach to predicting currency crashes," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 131-148, February.
  16. Frédérique Bec & Anders Rahbek & Neil Shephard, 2008. "The ACR Model: A Multivariate Dynamic Mixture Autoregression," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 70(5), pages 583-618, October.
  17. Chien-Chung Nieh & Yu-Shan Wang, 2005. "ARDL Approach to the Exchange Rate Overshooting in Taiwan," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 55-71, August.
  18. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2001. "Evaluating long-horizon forecasts," Research Working Paper RWP 01-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  19. Westerhoff Frank H. & Reitz Stefan, 2003. "Nonlinearities and Cyclical Behavior: The Role of Chartists and Fundamentalists," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(4), pages 1-15, December.
  20. Marie Bessec, 2005. "Les économistes sont-ils chartistes ou fondamentalistes ? Une enquête auprès de quatre-vingt chercheurs français," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 169(3), pages 239-249.
  21. Alina M. Spiru, 2008. "Inflation Convergence In Central And Eastern European Economies," Romanian Economic Business Review, Romanian-American University, vol. 3(4), pages 14-34, Winter.
  22. Trunin, Pavel & Bozhechkova, Alexandra, 2015. "Analysis of Factors Affecting the Dynamics of the Real Ruble Exchange Rate," Published Papers mak13, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
  23. Carlo Altavilla & Paul De Grauwe, 2010. "Forecasting and combining competing models of exchange rate determination," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(27), pages 3455-3480.
  24. Plakandaras, Vasilios & Papadimitriou, Theophilos & Gogas, Periklis, 2012. "Directional forecasting in financial time series using support vector machines: The USD/Euro exchange rate," DUTH Research Papers in Economics 5-2012, Democritus University of Thrace, Department of Economics.
  25. Diks, Cees & van der Weide, Roy, 2005. "Herding, a-synchronous updating and heterogeneity in memory in a CBS," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 741-763, April.
  26. Joscha Beckmann & Ansgar Belke & Michael Kühl, 2011. "Cointegration, structural breaks and monetary fundamentals of the Dollar/Yen Exchange," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 17(4), pages 397-412, November.
  27. Ivan Paya & David Peel, 2005. "The process followed by PPP data. On the properties of linearity tests," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(21), pages 2515-2522.
  28. Luisa Corrado & Marcus H. Miller & Lei Zhang, 2003. "Exchange Monitoring Bands: Theory and Policy," CEIS Research Paper 8, Tor Vergata University, CEIS.
  29. Schepp, Zoltán, 2003. "Befektetői horizont és a „forwardrejtély”
    [The investor horizon and the ‘forward puzzle’]    ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(11), pages 939-963.
  30. Miguel Carvalho & Paulo Júlio, 2012. "Digging out the PPP hypothesis: an integrated empirical coverage," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 713-744, June.
  31. repec:kap:iaecre:v:17:y:2011:i:4:p:397-412 is not listed on IDEAS
  32. Basci Erdem & Caner Mehmet, 2005. "Are Real Exchange Rates Nonlinear or Nonstationary? Evidence from a New Threshold Unit Root Test," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(4), pages 1-21, December.
  33. Yunus Aksoy & Kurmas Akdogan, 2006. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Is there a Role for Nonlinearities in Real Time?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 12, Society for Computational Economics.
  34. Wu, Jyh-Lin & Lee, Hsiu-Yun, 2009. "A revisit to the non-linear mean reversion of real exchange rates: Evidence from a series-specific non-linear panel unit-root test," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 591-601, December.
  35. Giorgio Canarella & Stephen Miller & Stephen Pollard, 2014. "Purchasing Power Parity Between the UK and Germany: The Euro Era," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 25(4), pages 677-699, September.
  36. Bauer, Christian & De Grauwe, Paul & Reitz, Stefan, 2009. "Exchange rate dynamics in a target zone--A heterogeneous expectations approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 329-344, February.
  37. Chang, Tsangyao & Tzeng, Han-Wen, 2011. "Long-run purchasing power parity with asymmetric adjustment: Further evidence from nine transition countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 1383-1391, May.
  38. Makram El-Shagi & Axel Lindner & Gregor von Schweinitz, 2016. "Real Effective Exchange Rate Misalignment in the Euro Area: A Counterfactual Analysis," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 37-66, 02.
  39. Wollmershauser, Timo, 2006. "Should central banks react to exchange rate movements? An analysis of the robustness of simple policy rules under exchange rate uncertainty," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 493-519, September.
  40. Sarno, Lucio & Thornton, Daniel L & Valente, Giorgio, 2005. "Federal Funds Rate Prediction," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(3), pages 449-471, June.
  41. Rangvid, Jesper & Schmeling, Maik & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2014. "Dividend Predictability Around the World," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 49(5-6), pages 1255-1277, December.
  42. Wu, Jyh-Lin & Wang, Yi-Chiuan, 2013. "Fundamentals, forecast combinations and nominal exchange-rate predictability," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 129-145.
  43. Byrne, Joseph P. & Korobilis, Dimitris & Ribeiro, Pinho J., 2016. "Exchange rate predictability in a changing world," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 1-24.
  44. Juan Carlos Cuestas, 2009. "Purchasing power parity in Central and Eastern European countries: an analysis of unit roots and nonlinearities," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(1), pages 87-94.
  45. Frédérique Bec & Mélika Ben Salem & Ronald MacDonald, 2006. "Real exchange rates and real interest rates : a nonlinear perspective," Recherches économiques de Louvain, De Boeck Université, vol. 72(2), pages 177-194.
  46. Terasvirta, Timo & van Dijk, Dick & Medeiros, Marcelo C., 2005. "Linear models, smooth transition autoregressions, and neural networks for forecasting macroeconomic time series: A re-examination," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 755-774.
  47. Frederic Bec & Melika Ben Salem & Marine Carrasco, 2004. "Tests for Unit-Root versus Threshold Specification With an Application to the Purchasing Power Parity Relationship," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22, pages 382-395, October.
  48. Clark, Todd E. & McCracken, Michael W., 2015. "Nested forecast model comparisons: A new approach to testing equal accuracy," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 186(1), pages 160-177.
  49. Ahmad, Yamin & Lo, Ming Chien & Mykhaylova, Olena, 2013. "Volatility and persistence of simulated DSGE real exchange rates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 38-41.
  50. Nelson Mark & Young-Kyu Moh, 2003. "Official Interventions and Occasional Violations of Uncovered Interest Party in the Dollar-DM Market," NBER Working Papers 9948, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  51. Daniel Buncic, 2012. "Understanding forecast failure of ESTAR models of real exchange rates," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(1), pages 399-426, August.
  52. Domenico Ferraro & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Barbara Rossi, 2011. "Can oil prices forecast exchange rates?," Working Papers 11-34, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  53. Venus Khim-Sen Liew & Hock-Ann Lee & Kian-Ping Lim, 2009. "Purchasing power parity in Asian economies: further evidence from rank tests for cointegration," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(1), pages 51-54.
  54. Corrado, L. & Marcus Miller & Lei Zhang, 2002. "Exchange Rate Monitoring Bands: Theory and Policy," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0209, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  55. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Antonio Garcia Pascual & Yi Zhang, 2017. "Exchange Rate Prediction Redux: New Models, New Data, New Currencies," NBER Working Papers 23267, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  56. Frédérique Bec & Mélika Ben Salem & Marine Carrasco, 2010. "Detecting Mean Reversion in Real Exchange Rates from a Multiple Regime star Model," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 99-100, pages 395-427.
  57. Carlo Altavilla & Paul De Grauwe, 2010. "Non-linearities in the relation between the exchange rate and its fundamentals," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 1-21.
  58. Beckmann, Joscha & Belke, Ansgar & Kühl, Michael, 2009. "How Stable Are Monetary Models of the Dollar-Euro Exchange Rate? - A Time-varying Coefficient Approach," Ruhr Economic Papers 134, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
  59. Bertram, Philip & Ma, Jun & Sibbertsen, Philipp, 2015. "Real exchange rates and economic fundamentals: An investigation based on a Markov-STAR model," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-565, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
  60. Jaehun Chung & Yongmiao Hong, 2013. "Model-Free Evaluation of Directional Predictability in Foreign Exchange," WISE Working Papers 2013-10-14, Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics (WISE), Xiamen University.
  61. He, Huizhen & Chou, Ming Che & Chang, Tsangyao, 2014. "Purchasing power parity for 15 Latin American countries: Panel SURKSS test with a Fourier function," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 37-43.
  62. Christopher J. Neely & Lucio Sarno, 2002. "How well do monetary fundamentals forecast exchange rates?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 51-74.
  63. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Antonio I. Garcia Pascual, 2003. "What Do We Know about Recent Exchange Rate Models? In-Sample Fit and Out-of-Sample Performance Evaluated," CESifo Working Paper Series 902, CESifo Group Munich.
  64. Audretsch, David B. & Stadtmann, Georg, 2005. "Biases in FX-forecasts: Evidence from panel data," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 99-111, August.
  65. Lukas Menkhoff & Mark P. Taylor, 2007. "The Obstinate Passion of Foreign Exchange Professionals: Technical Analysis," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 45(4), pages 936-972, December.
  66. Karras, Georgios & Lee, Jin Man & Stokes, Houston, 2005. "Sources of exchange-rate volatility: Impulses or propagation?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 213-226.
  67. Alfred Haug & Syed Basher, 2011. "Linear or nonlinear cointegration in the purchasing power parity relationship?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(2), pages 185-196.
  68. Sofiane Sekioua, 2004. "The forward unbiasedness hypothesis and the forward premium: a nonlinear analysis," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 85, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  69. Aloy, Marcel & Boutahar, Mohamed & Gente, Karine & Péguin-Feissolle, Anne, 2011. "Purchasing power parity and the long memory properties of real exchange rates: Does one size fit all?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 1279-1290, May.
  70. Hau, Harald, 2002. "Real Exchange Rate Volatility and Economic Openness: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(3), pages 611-630, August.
  71. Pippenger, John, 2004. "The Modern Theory of the LOP and PPP: Some Implications," University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series qt60z886n7, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
  72. Preminger, Arie & Franck, Raphael, 2007. "Forecasting exchange rates: A robust regression approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 71-84.
  73. Lahtinen, Markus & Mäki-Fränt, Petri, 2007. "The Exchange Rate Targeting of Central Banks Revised: The Role of Long-term Interest Rates," Economics Discussion Papers 2007-28, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  74. Paul De Grauwe & Isabel Vansteenkiste, 2007. "Exchange rates and fundamentals: a non-linear relationship?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(1), pages 37-54.
  75. Charles Engel & Kenneth D. West, 2005. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(3), pages 485-517, June.
  76. Menkhoff, Lukas & Rebitzky, Rafael R., 2008. "Investor sentiment in the US-dollar: Longer-term, non-linear orientation on PPP," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 455-467, June.
  77. Kim, Hyeongwoo & Ryu, Deockhyun, 2015. "A nonparametric study of real exchange rate persistence over a century," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 406-418.
  78. Mark P. Taylor, 2004. "Is Official Exchange Rate Intervention Effective?," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 71, pages 1-11, 02.
  79. Tasadduq Imam & Kevin Tickle & Abdullahi Ahmed & William Guo, 2012. "Linear Relationship Between The Aud/Usd Exchange Rate And The Respective Stock Market Indices: A Computational Finance Perspective," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(1), pages 19-42, 01.
  80. Arize, Augustine C., 2011. "Purchasing power parity in LDCs: An empirical investigation," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 56-71.
  81. Nikolaos Mitinanoudis & Theologos Dergiades, 2017. "Stock Prices Predictability at Long-horizons: Two Tales from the Time-Frequency Domain," Credit and Capital Markets, Credit and Capital Markets, vol. 50(1), pages 37-61.
  82. Roman Hotvath, 2005. "Real Equilibrium Exchange Rate Estimates: To What Extent Applicable for Setting the Central Parity?," International Finance 0509006, EconWPA.
  83. Jean Imbs & Haroon Mumtaz & Morten O. Ravn & Hélène Rey, 2005. "PPP Strikes Back: Aggregation And the Real Exchange Rate," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 120(1), pages 1-43.
  84. Jaehun Chung & Yongmiao Hong, 2007. "Model-free evaluation of directional predictability in foreign exchange markets," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(5), pages 855-889.
  85. David Ubilava, 2012. "El Niño, La Niña, and world coffee price dynamics," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 43(1), pages 17-26, 01.
  86. Stefan Reitz & Mark Taylor, 2012. "FX intervention in the Yen-US dollar market: a coordination channel perspective," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 9(2), pages 111-128, June.
  87. Alfred Haug & Syed Basher & Perry Sadorsky, 2016. "The impact of oil price shocks on exchange rates: A non-linear smooth-transition approach," EcoMod2016 9226, EcoMod.
  88. Faust, Jon & Rogers, John H. & H. Wright, Jonathan, 2003. "Exchange rate forecasting: the errors we've really made," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 35-59, May.
  89. Stefan Reitz & Ulf Slopek, 2009. "Non-Linear Oil Price Dynamics: A Tale of Heterogeneous Speculators?," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 10, pages 270-283, 08.
  90. Ramdane Djoudad & Jack Selody & Carolyn Wilkins, 2005. "Does Financial Structure Matter for the Information Content of Financial Indicators?," Staff Working Papers 05-33, Bank of Canada.
  91. Mark, Nelson C. & Moh, Young-Kyu, 2007. "Official interventions and the forward premium anomaly," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 499-522, September.
  92. Lucchetti, Riccardo & Palomba, Giulio, 2009. "Nonlinear adjustment in US bond yields: An empirical model with conditional heteroskedasticity," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 659-667, May.
  93. Kim, Bong-Han & Min, Hong-Ghi & Moh, Young-Kyu, 2010. "Nonlinear dynamics in exchange rate deviations from the monetary fundamentals: An empirical study," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 1167-1177, September.
  94. repec:eee:reveco:v:49:y:2017:i:c:p:313-326 is not listed on IDEAS
  95. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Estefania Mourelle, 2011. "Nonlinearities in real exchange rate determination: do African exchange rates follow a random walk?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(2), pages 243-258.
  96. Yuan, Chunming, 2011. "Forecasting exchange rates: The multi-state Markov-switching model with smoothing," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 342-362, April.
  97. repec:zbw:rwirep:0272 is not listed on IDEAS
  98. Atsushi Inoue & Lutz Kilian, 2005. "In-Sample or Out-of-Sample Tests of Predictability: Which One Should We Use?," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(4), pages 371-402.
  99. Berka, Martin, 2005. "General Equilibrium Model of Arbitrage Trade and Real Exchange Rate Persistence," MPRA Paper 234, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  100. Sam Nasypbek & Scheherazade S Rehman, 2011. "Explaining the returns of active currency managers," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Portfolio and risk management for central banks and sovereign wealth funds, volume 58, pages 211-256 Bank for International Settlements.
  101. Giorgio Canarella & Stephen M. Miller & Stephen K. Pollard, 2012. "Purchasing Power Parity between the UK and the Euro Area," Working papers 2012-46, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
  102. Gene L. Leon & Serineh Najarian, 2003. "Time-Varying Thresholds; An Application to Purchasing Power Parity," IMF Working Papers 03/181, International Monetary Fund.
  103. Clarida, Richard H. & Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P. & Valente, Giorgio, 2003. "The out-of-sample success of term structure models as exchange rate predictors: a step beyond," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 61-83, May.
  104. Nikolaou, Kleopatra, 2006. "The behaviour of the real exchange rate: evidence from regression quantiles," Working Paper Series 667, European Central Bank.
  105. Bekiros, Stelios D., 2014. "Exchange rates and fundamentals: Co-movement, long-run relationships and short-run dynamics," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 117-134.
  106. Craig, Lee & Holt, Matthew T., 2012. "The Role of Mechanical Refrigeration in Spatial and Temporal Price Dynamics for Regional U.S. Egg Markets, 1880–1911," MPRA Paper 39554, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  107. Nicolau João, 2011. "Purchasing Power Parity Analyzed from a Continuous-Time Model," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 15(3), pages 1-26, May.
  108. Leitner, Johannes & Schmidt, Robert & Bofinger, Peter, 2003. "Biases of professional exchange rate forecasts: Psychological explanations and an experimentally based comparison to novices," W.E.P. - Würzburg Economic Papers 39, University of Würzburg, Chair for Monetary Policy and International Economics.
  109. Oscar Jorda, "undated". "Carry Trade," Working Papers 1018, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
  110. Mende, Alexander & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2006. "Profits and speculation in intra-day foreign exchange trading," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 223-245, August.
  111. Clark, Todd E. & West, Kenneth D., 2006. "Using out-of-sample mean squared prediction errors to test the martingale difference hypothesis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 155-186.
  112. David A. Peel & Ivan Paya, 2006. "Temporal aggregation of an ESTAR process: some implications for purchasing power parity adjustment," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(5), pages 655-668.
  113. Beckmann, Joscha, 2013. "Nonlinear adjustment, purchasing power parity and the role of nominal exchange rates and prices," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 176-190.
  114. Javier Arroyo & Rosa Espínola & Carlos Maté, 2011. "Different Approaches to Forecast Interval Time Series: A Comparison in Finance," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 37(2), pages 169-191, February.
  115. Ondrej Schneider & Jan Zapal, 2006. "Fiscal Policy in New EU Member States: Go East, Prudent Man!," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(2), pages 139-166.
  116. Joscha Beckmann & Ansgar Belke & Michael Kühl, 2011. "The dollar-euro exchange rate and macroeconomic fundamentals: a time-varying coefficient approach," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 147(1), pages 11-40, April.
  117. Georg H. Strasser, 2010. "The Efficiency of the Global Markets for Final Goods and Productive Capabilities," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 766, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 31 Jan 2012.
  118. Works, Richard Floyd, 2016. "Econometric modeling of exchange rate determinants by market classification: An empirical analysis of Japan and South Korea using the sticky-price monetary theory," MPRA Paper 76382, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  119. Sager, Michael & Taylor, Mark P., 2014. "Generating currency trading rules from the term structure of forward foreign exchange premia," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 230-250.
  120. Fernando Fernández-Rodríguez & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero & Julián Andrada-Félix, "undated". "Nearest-Neighbour Predictions in Foreign Exchange Markets," Working Papers 2002-05, FEDEA.
  121. Ferrara, Laurent & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Mogliani, Matteo, 2015. "Macroeconomic forecasting during the Great Recession: The return of non-linearity?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 664-679.
  122. Xiong, Tao & Bao, Yukun & Hu, Zhongyi, 2013. "Beyond one-step-ahead forecasting: Evaluation of alternative multi-step-ahead forecasting models for crude oil prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 405-415.
  123. Mikael Juselius & Moshe Kim & Staffan Ringbom, 2015. "Do markup dynamics reflect fundamentals or changes in conduct?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 1119-1147, May.
  124. Joseph V. Balagtas & Matthew T. Holt, 2009. "The Commodity Terms of Trade, Unit Roots, and Nonlinear Alternatives: A Smooth Transition Approach," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 91(1), pages 87-105.
  125. Ahmad, Yamin & Lo, Ming Chien & Mykhaylova, Olena, 2013. "Causes of nonlinearities in low-order models of the real exchange rate," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 128-141.
  126. Marmer, Vadim, 2008. "Nonlinearity, nonstationarity, and spurious forecasts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 1-27, January.
  127. Todd E. Clark & Kenneth D. West, 2005. "Using Out-of-Sample Mean Squared Prediction Errors to Test the Martingale Difference," NBER Technical Working Papers 0305, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  128. Frommel, Michael & MacDonald, Ronald & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2005. "Markov switching regimes in a monetary exchange rate model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 485-502, May.
  129. López Villavicencio, Antonia, 2008. "Nonlinearities or outliers in real exchange rates?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 714-730, July.
  130. Francis X. Diebold, 2015. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy, Twenty Years Later: A Personal Perspective on the Use and Abuse of Diebold-Mariano Tests," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(1), pages 1-1, January.
  131. Céline Gauthier & Fu Chun Li, 2006. "Linking Real Activity and Financial Markets: The Bonds, Equity, and Money (BEAM) Model," Staff Working Papers 06-42, Bank of Canada.
  132. Jian Wang & Jason J. Wu, 2012. "The Taylor Rule and Forecast Intervals for Exchange Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(1), pages 103-144, 02.
  133. Alan M. Taylor & Mark P. Taylor, 2004. "The Purchasing Power Parity Debate," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(4), pages 135-158, Fall.
  134. Camarero, Mariam & Ordóñez, Javier, 2012. "Nonlinear adjustment in the real dollar–euro exchange rate: The role of the productivity differential as a fundamental," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 444-449.
  135. Giannellis, Nikolaos & Papadopoulos, Athanasios P., 2009. "Testing for efficiency in selected developing foreign exchange markets: An equilibrium-based approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 155-166, January.
  136. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie D. & Pascual, Antonio Garcia, 2005. "Empirical exchange rate models of the nineties: Are any fit to survive?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(7), pages 1150-1175, November.
  137. Wan, Jer-Yuh & Kao, Chung-Wei, 2009. "Evidence on the contrarian trading in foreign exchange markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1420-1431, November.
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