IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!)

Citations for "Testing Density Forecasts, with Applications to Risk Management"

by Berkowitz, Jeremy

For a complete description of this item, click here. For a RSS feed for citations of this item, click here.
as in new window

  1. Fawcett, Nicholas & Koerber, Lena & Masolo, Riccardo & Waldron, Matthew, 2015. "Evaluating UK point and density forecasts from an estimated DSGE model: the role of off-model information over the financial crisis," Bank of England working papers 538, Bank of England.
  2. Francisco Peñaranda, 2003. "Evaluation of joint density forecasts of stock and bond returns: predictability and parameter uncertainty," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24857, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  3. Maik H. Wolters, 2015. "Evaluating Point and Density Forecasts of DSGE Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(1), pages 74-96, 01.
  4. repec:ctc:serie1:def10 is not listed on IDEAS
  5. BAN Kanemi & KAWAGOE Masaaki & MATSUOKA Hideaki, 2013. "Evaluating Density Forecasts with Applications to ESPF," ESRI Discussion paper series 302, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  6. Luc Bauwens & Pierre Giot & Joachim Grammig & David Veredas, 2004. "A comparison of financial duration models via density forecast," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/136218, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  7. Li, Xiao-Ming & Rose, Lawrence C., 2009. "The tail risk of emerging stock markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 242-256, December.
  8. Geweke, John & Amisano, Gianni, 2008. "Comparing and evaluating Bayesian predictive distributions of assets returns," Working Paper Series 0969, European Central Bank.
  9. Diks, Cees & Panchenko, Valentyn & van Dijk, Dick, 2011. "Likelihood-based scoring rules for comparing density forecasts in tails," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 163(2), pages 215-230, August.
  10. Degiannakis, Stavros & Floros, Christos, 2013. "Modeling CAC40 volatility using ultra-high frequency data," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 68-81.
  11. Deschamps, Philippe J., 2012. "Bayesian estimation of generalized hyperbolic skewed student GARCH models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(11), pages 3035-3054.
  12. Peter Christoffersen & Stefano Mazzotta, 2004. "The Informational Content of Over-the-Counter Currency Options," CIRANO Working Papers 2004s-16, CIRANO.
  13. Kang, Byung Jin & Kim, Tong Suk, 2006. "Option-implied risk preferences: An extension to wider classes of utility functions," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 180-198, May.
  14. Tommaso Proietti & Martyna Marczak & Gianluigi Mazzi, 2015. "EuroMInd-D: A Density Estimate of Monthly Gross Domestic Product for the Euro Area," CEIS Research Paper 340, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 10 Apr 2015.
  15. Christian Kascha & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2008. "Combining inflation density forecasts," Working Paper 2008/22, Norges Bank.
  16. Wong, Woon K., 2008. "Backtesting trading risk of commercial banks using expected shortfall," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(7), pages 1404-1415, July.
  17. Miguel A. Ferreira, 2005. "Evaluating Interest Rate Covariance Models Within a Value-at-Risk Framework," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 3(1), pages 126-168.
  18. Vasileios Siakoulis & Ioannis Venetis, 2015. "On inter-arrival times of bond market extreme events. An application to seven European markets," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 39(4), pages 717-741, October.
  19. De Gooijer, Jan G. & Vidiella-i-Anguera, Antoni, 2004. "Forecasting threshold cointegrated systems," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 237-253.
  20. Chang, Kuang-Liang, 2009. "Do macroeconomic variables have regime-dependent effects on stock return dynamics? Evidence from the Markov regime switching model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 1283-1299, November.
  21. Davide Delle Monache & Ivan Petrella, 2014. "Adaptive Models and Heavy Tails," Working Papers 720, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  22. Giovanni Bonaccolto & Massimiliano Caporin, 2016. "The Determinants of Equity Risk and Their Forecasting Implications: A Quantile Regression Perspective," Journal of Risk and Financial Management, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 9(3), pages 8, July.
  23. Igor Kheifets, 2014. "Specification Tests for Nonlinear Dynamic Models," Working Papers w0209, Center for Economic and Financial Research (CEFIR).
  24. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Porqueddu, Mario & Venditti, Fabrizio, 2013. "Short-term GDP forecasting with a mixed frequency dynamic factor model with stochastic volatility," CEPR Discussion Papers 9334, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  25. Haas, Markus & Mittnik, Stefan & Mizrach, Bruce, 2005. "Assessing central bank credibility during the EMS crises: Comparing option and spot market-based forecasts," CFS Working Paper Series 2005/09, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  26. Xiaohong Chen & Yanqin Fan, 2002. "Evaluating Density Forecasts via the Copula Approach," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 0225, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics, revised Sep 2003.
  27. Hanan Naser, 2015. "Estimating and forecasting Bahrain quarterly GDP growth using simple regression and factor-based methods," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(2), pages 449-479, September.
  28. Chollete, Lorán & Heinen, Andréas & Valdesogo, Alfonso, 2008. "Modeling International Financial Returns with a Multivariate Regime Switching Copula," Discussion Papers 2008/3, Department of Business and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics.
  29. GIOT, Pierre & PETITJEAN, Mikael, 2005. "Dynamic asset allocation between stocks and bonds using the Bond-Equity Yield Ratio," CORE Discussion Papers 2005010, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  30. Danut CULETU & Andreea Gabriela BALTAC & Alexandru URSACHE, 2013. "Measurement of the Credit Risk," Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 61(3), pages 73-80, September.
  31. Chen, Yi-Hsuan & Tu, Anthony H., 2013. "Estimating hedged portfolio value-at-risk using the conditional copula: An illustration of model risk," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 514-528.
  32. Anne Sofie Jore & James Mitchell & Shaun P. Vahey, 2010. "Combining forecast densities from VARs with uncertain instabilities," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 621-634.
  33. Dovern, Jonas & Manner, Hans, 2016. "Order Invariant Evaluation of Multivariate Density Forecasts," Working Papers 0608, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
  34. Caglayan, Mustafa & Jehan, Zainab & Mouratidis, Kostas, 2012. "Asymmetric monetary policy rules for open economies: Evidence from four countries," MPRA Paper 37401, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  35. Friedmann, Ralph & Sanddorf-Kohle, Walter G., 2007. "A conditional distribution model for limited stock index returns," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 721-741, March.
  36. Silva Filho, Osvaldo Candido da & Ziegelmann, Flavio Augusto & Dueker, Michael J., 2012. "Modeling dependence dynamics through copulas with regime switching," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 346-356.
  37. Stelios D. Bekiros & Alessia Paccagnini, 2014. "Estimating point and density forecasts for the US economy with a factor-augmented vector autoregressive DSGE model," Open Access publications 10197/7588, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
  38. Barbara Rossi & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2014. "Alternative tests for correct specification of conditional predictive densities," Economics Working Papers 1416, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jan 2016.
  39. Raffaella Giacomini & Barbara Rossi, 2014. "Forecasting in Nonstationary Environments: What Works and What Doesn't in Reduced-Form and Structural Models," Working Papers 819, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
  40. BAUWENS, Luc & STORTI, Giuseppe, 2007. "A component GARCH model with time varying weights," CORE Discussion Papers 2007019, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  41. Dick Dijk & Philip Hans Franses, 2003. "Selecting a Nonlinear Time Series Model using Weighted Tests of Equal Forecast Accuracy," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(s1), pages 727-744, December.
  42. Massimo Guidolin & Giovanna Nicodano, 2007. "Small caps in international equity portfolios: the effects of variance risk," Working Papers 2005-075, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  43. Liu, Xiaoquan & Shackleton, Mark B. & Taylor, Stephen J. & Xu, Xinzhong, 2007. "Closed-form transformations from risk-neutral to real-world distributions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 1501-1520, May.
  44. Monticini, Andrea & Ravazzolo, Francesco, 2014. "Forecasting the intraday market price of money," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 304-315.
  45. Roberta Cardani & Alessia Paccagnini & Stefania Villa, 2015. "Forecasting in a DSGE Model with Banking Intermediation: Evidence from the US," Working Papers 292, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2015.
  46. Ziggel, Daniel & Berens, Tobias & Weiß, Gregor N.F. & Wied, Dominik, 2014. "A new set of improved Value-at-Risk backtests," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 29-41.
  47. Sudheer Chava & Catalina Stefanescu & Stuart Turnbull, 2011. "Modeling the Loss Distribution," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 57(7), pages 1267-1287, July.
  48. González-Rivera, Gloria & Yoldas, Emre, 2012. "Autocontour-based evaluation of multivariate predictive densities," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 328-342.
  49. Davide Pettenuzzo & Konstantinos Metaxoglou & Aaron Smith, 2016. "Option-Implied Equity Premium Predictions via Entropic TiltinG," Working Papers 99, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Businesss School.
  50. Marinela BARBULESCU & Alina HAGIU, 2016. "Aspects Of The Financial Risk In The Romanian Economy Versus The French Economy - Comparative Perspective And Analysis," Scientific Bulletin - Economic Sciences, University of Pitesti, vol. 15(1), pages 69-76.
  51. Raunig, Burkhard, 2006. "The longer-horizon predictability of German stock market volatility," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 363-372.
  52. Cees Diks & Valentyn Panchenko & Dick van Dijk, 2008. "Partial Likelihood-Based Scoring Rules for Evaluating Density Forecasts in Tails," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 08-050/4, Tinbergen Institute.
  53. Wolters, Maik H., 2011. "Forecasting under Model Uncertainty," Annual Conference 2011 (Frankfurt, Main): The Order of the World Economy - Lessons from the Crisis 48723, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  54. Laih, Yih-Wenn, 2014. "Measuring rank correlation coefficients between financial time series: A GARCH-copula based sequence alignment algorithm," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 232(2), pages 375-382.
  55. Ida Wolden Bache & Anne Sofie Jore & James Mitchell & Shaun P. Vahey, 2009. "Combining VAR and DSGE forecast densities," Working Paper 2009/23, Norges Bank.
  56. Chen, Qian & Gerlach, Richard & Lu, Zudi, 2012. "Bayesian Value-at-Risk and expected shortfall forecasting via the asymmetric Laplace distribution," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(11), pages 3498-3516.
  57. Pritsker, Matthew, 2006. "The hidden dangers of historical simulation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 561-582, February.
  58. Barbara Rossi & Tatevik Sehkposyan, 2013. "Evaluating Predictive Densities of US Output Growth and Inflation in a Large Macroeconomic Data Set," Working Papers 689, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
  59. Gürkaynak, Refet S. & Wolfers, Justin, 2005. "Macroeconomic Derivatives: An Initial Analysis of Market-Based Macro Forecasts, Uncertainty and Risk," IZA Discussion Papers 1899, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  60. Anthony Garratt & James Mitchell & Shaun P. Vahey, 2009. "Measuring output gap uncertainty," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2009/15, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  61. Andreas Stadie, 2003. "Detecting periods in which a time series model fails to predict the observed volatility," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 18(3), pages 375-386, September.
  62. Lucas, André & Zhang, Xin, 2016. "Score-driven exponentially weighted moving averages and Value-at-Risk forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 293-302.
  63. Massimo Guidolin & Carrie Fangzhou Na, 2007. "The economic and statistical value of forecast combinations under regime switching: an application to predictable U.S. returns," Working Papers 2006-059, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  64. Markku Lanne, 2006. "A Mixture Multiplicative Error Model for Realized Volatility," Economics Working Papers ECO2006/3, European University Institute.
  65. Trino-Manuel Niguez & Javier Perote, 2004. "Forecasting the density of asset returns," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 6845, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  66. Rafal Weron, 2014. "Electricity price forecasting: A review of the state-of-the-art with a look into the future," HSC Research Reports HSC/14/07, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
  67. Shamiri, Ahmed & Shaari, Abu Hassan & Isa, Zaidi, 2007. "Practical Volatility Modeling for Financial Market Risk Management," MPRA Paper 9790, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 May 2008.
  68. Guidolin, Massimo & Ono, Sadayuki, 2006. "Are the dynamic linkages between the macroeconomy and asset prices time-varying?," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 58(5-6), pages 480-518.
  69. Anthony Garratt & James Mitchell & Shaun P. Vahey & Elizabeth C. Wakerly, 2009. "Real-time Inflation Forecast Densities from Ensemble Phillips Curves," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0910, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
  70. Rapach, David E. & Wohar, Mark E., 2006. "The out-of-sample forecasting performance of nonlinear models of real exchange rate behavior," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 341-361.
  71. Michal Adam & Piotr Banbula & Michal Markun, 2015. "International Dependence and Contagion across Asset Classes: The Case of Poland," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 65(3), pages 254-270, May.
  72. Vladimir Zdorovenin & Jacques Pézier, 2011. "Does Information Content of Option Prices Add Value for Asset Allocation?," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2011-03, Henley Business School, Reading University.
  73. Francesco Ravazzolo & Shaun P. Vahey, 2010. "Forecast densities for economic aggregates from disaggregate ensembles," Working Paper 2010/02, Norges Bank.
  74. Polanski, Arnold & Stoja, Evarist, 2014. "Co-dependence of extreme events in high frequency FX returns," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 164-178.
  75. Vijverberg, Chu-Ping C. & Vijverberg, Wim P.M. & Taşpınar, Süleyman, 2016. "Linking Tukey’s legacy to financial risk measurement," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 595-615.
  76. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller, 2012. "The Out-of-Sample Forecasting Performance of Non-Linear Models of Regional Housing Prices in the US," Working papers 2012-12, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
  77. Chang, Kuang-Liang, 2010. "House price dynamics, conditional higher-order moments, and density forecasts," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 1029-1039, September.
  78. José Renato Haas Ornelas, 2014. "Assessing the Forecast Ability of Risk-Neutral Densities and Real-World Densities from Emerging Markets Currencies," Working Papers Series 370, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  79. Mouratidis, Kostas, 2008. "Evaluating currency crises: A Bayesian Markov switching approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1688-1711, December.
  80. Leonidas Tsiaras, 2010. "Dynamic Models of Exchange Rate Dependence Using Option Prices and Historical Returns," CREATES Research Papers 2010-35, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  81. Righi, Marcelo Brutti & Ceretta, Paulo Sergio, 2015. "A comparison of Expected Shortfall estimation models," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 14-47.
  82. Tsyplakov, Alexander, 2014. "Theoretical guidelines for a partially informed forecast examiner," MPRA Paper 55017, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  83. Clements, Michael P., 2014. "Probability distributions or point predictions? Survey forecasts of US output growth and inflation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 99-117.
  84. Pesaran, Bahram & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2007. "Modelling Volatilities and Conditional Correlations in Futures Markets with a Multivariate t Distribution," IZA Discussion Papers 2906, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  85. Christophe Hurlin & Sessi Tokpavi, 2007. "Une Evaluation des Procédures de Backtesting," Working Papers halshs-00159846, HAL.
  86. Alexandros Kostakis & Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou & George Skiadopoulos, 2011. "Market Timing with Option-Implied Distributions: A Forward-Looking Approach," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 57(7), pages 1231-1249, July.
  87. Alexios Ghalanos & Eduardo Rossi & Giovanni Urga, 2012. "Independent Factor Autoregressive Conditional Density Model," DEM Working Papers Series 021, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management.
  88. Francesco Ravazzolo & Shaun P Vahey, 2010. "Measuring Core Inflation in Australia with Disaggregate Ensembles," RBA Annual Conference Volume, in: Renée Fry & Callum Jones & Christopher Kent (ed.), Inflation in an Era of Relative Price Shocks Reserve Bank of Australia.
  89. BONTEMPS, Christian & MEDDAHI, Nour, 2002. "Testing Normality : A GMM Approach," Cahiers de recherche 2002-14, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  90. Lucio Sarno, 2003. "Nonlinear Exchange Rate Models; A Selective Overview," IMF Working Papers 03/111, International Monetary Fund.
  91. Zikovic, Sasa & Aktan, Bora, 2011. "Decay factor optimisation in time weighted simulation -- Evaluating VaR performance," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 1147-1159, October.
  92. Kim, Kun Ho, 2011. "Density forecasting through disaggregation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 394-412, April.
  93. Jason Ng & Catherine S. Forbes & Gael M. Martin & Brendan P.M. McCabe, 2011. "Non-Parametric Estimation of Forecast Distributions in Non-Gaussian, Non-linear State Space Models," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 11/11, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
  94. Clements, Michael P, 2012. "Subjective and Ex Post Forecast Uncertainty : US Inflation and Output Growth," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 995, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  95. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2012. "Time-varying Combinations of Predictive Densities using Nonlinear Filtering," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 12-118/III, Tinbergen Institute.
  96. Raunig, Burkhard, 2008. "The predictability of exchange rate volatility," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 220-228, February.
  97. Massimo Guidolin & Allan Timmerman, 2005. "Optimal portfolio choice under regime switching, skew and kurtosis preferences," Working Papers 2005-006, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  98. Sarno, Lucio & Valente, Giorgio, 2005. "Empirical exchange rate models and currency risk: some evidence from density forecasts," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 363-385, March.
  99. Chang, Kuang-Liang, 2016. "Does the return-state-varying relationship between risk and return matter in modeling the time series process of stock return?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 72-87.
  100. Francesco Giurda & Elias Tzavalis, 2004. "Is the Currency Risk Priced in Equity Markets?," Working Papers 511, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  101. Segnon, Mawuli & Lux, Thomas, 2013. "Multifractal models in finance: Their origin, properties, and applications," Kiel Working Papers 1860, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  102. Marc Saidenberg & Til Schuermann & May, . "The New Basel Capital Accord and Questions for Research," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 03-14, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
  103. Hilde C. Bjornland & Francesco Ravazzolo & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2016. "Forecasting GDP with global components. This time is different," CAMA Working Papers 2016-26, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  104. Aramonte, Sirio & Giudice Rodriguez, Marius del & Wu, Jason, 2013. "Dynamic factor Value-at-Risk for large heteroskedastic portfolios," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4299-4309.
  105. Valentina Corradi & Norman Swanson, 2004. "Predective Density and Conditional Confidence Interval Accuracy Tests," Departmental Working Papers 200423, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  106. Robert R. Bliss & Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, 2001. "Recovering risk aversion from options," Working Paper Series WP-01-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  107. Bartram, Sohnke M. & Taylor, Stephen J. & Wang, Yaw-Huei, 2007. "The Euro and European financial market dependence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 1461-1481, May.
  108. Kerkhof, Jeroen & Melenberg, Bertrand, 2004. "Backtesting for risk-based regulatory capital," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 1845-1865, August.
  109. Young Shin Kim & Rachev, Svetlozar T. & Bianchi, Michele Leonardo & Mitov, Ivan & Fabozzi, Frank J., 2010. "Time series analysis for financial market meltdowns," Working Paper Series in Economics 2, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Department of Economics and Business Engineering.
  110. Datta, Deepa Dhume & Londono, Juan M. & Ross, Landon J, 2014. "Generating Options-Implied Probability Densities to Understand Oil Market Events," International Finance Discussion Papers 1122, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  111. Borusyak, K., 2011. "Nonlinear Dynamics of the Russian Stock Market in Problems of Risk Management," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, issue 11, pages 85-105.
  112. Lönnbark, Carl, 2013. "On the role of the estimation error in prediction of expected shortfall," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 847-853.
  113. Marinela BARBULESCU & Alina HAGIU & Cristina BALDAN, 2015. "Contingencies For Measurement Of The Credit Risk," Scientific Bulletin - Economic Sciences, University of Pitesti, vol. 14(3), pages 60-65.
  114. Anthony Garratt & James Mitchell & Shaun P. Vahey, 2011. "Measuring Output Gap Nowcast Uncertainty," CAMA Working Papers 2011-16, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  115. Wong, Woon K., 2010. "Backtesting value-at-risk based on tail losses," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 526-538, June.
  116. Amisano, Gianni & Geweke, John, 2013. "Prediction using several macroeconomic models," Working Paper Series 1537, European Central Bank.
  117. Knut Are Aastveit & Karsten R. Gerdrup & Anne Sofie Jore & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2011. "Nowcasting GDP in real-time: A density combination approach," Working Paper 2011/11, Norges Bank.
  118. Wagner Piazza Gaglianone & Jaqueline Terra Moura Marins, 2014. "Risk Assessment of the Brazilian FX Rate," Working Papers Series 344, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  119. Christophe Boucher & Jón Daníelsson & Patrick Kouontchou & Bertrand Maillet, 2014. "Risk models-at-risk," Post-Print hal-01243413, HAL.
  120. Durham, Garland B., 2006. "Monte Carlo methods for estimating, smoothing, and filtering one- and two-factor stochastic volatility models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 133(1), pages 273-305, July.
  121. Markus Haas & Stefan Mittnik & Marc Paolella, 2006. "Modelling and predicting market risk with Laplace-Gaussian mixture distributions," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(15), pages 1145-1162.
  122. Polanski, Arnold & Stoja, Evarist, 2012. "Efficient evaluation of multidimensional time-varying density forecasts, with applications to risk management," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 343-352.
  123. Bartram, Söhnke M. & Wang, Yaw-Huei, 2015. "European financial market dependence: An industry analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 146-163.
  124. Haas, Markus & Mittnik, Stefan & Paolella, Marc S., 2002. "Mixed normal conditional heteroskedasticity," CFS Working Paper Series 2002/10, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  125. Weng, Haijie & Trück, Stefan, 2011. "Style analysis and Value-at-Risk of Asia-focused hedge funds," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 491-510, November.
  126. Gilbert Colletaz & Christophe Hurlin & Christophe Pérignon, 2012. "The Risk Map: A New Tool for Validating Risk Models," Working Papers halshs-00746273, HAL.
  127. Huurman, Christian & Ravazzolo, Francesco & Zhou, Chen, 2012. "The power of weather," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(11), pages 3793-3807.
  128. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2011. "Combining Predictive Densities using Bayesian Filtering with Applications to US Economics Data," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-003/4, Tinbergen Institute.
  129. Wojciech Charemza & Carlos Díaz & Svetlana Makarova, 2015. "Conditional Term Structure of Inflation Forecast Uncertainty: The Copula Approach," Discussion Papers in Economics 15/07, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
  130. Igor Kheifets, 2014. "Specification Tests for Nonlinear Dynamic Models," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1937, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Oct 2014.
  131. Fabozzi, Frank J. & Leccadito, Arturo & Tunaru, Radu S., 2014. "Extracting market information from equity options with exponential Lévy processes," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 125-141.
  132. Li, Yushu & Andersson, Jonas, 2014. "A Likelihood Ratio and Markov Chain Based Method to Evaluate Density Forecasting," Discussion Papers 2014/12, Department of Business and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics.
  133. Ivanova, Vesela & Puigvert Gutiérrez, Josep Maria, 2014. "Interest rate forecasts, state price densities and risk premium from Euribor options," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 210-223.
  134. Gomes-Gonçalves, Erika & Gzyl, Henryk & Mayoral, Silvia, 2015. "Two maxentropic approaches to determine the probability density of compound risk losses," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 42-53.
  135. Hall, Stephen G. & Mitchell, James, 2007. "Combining density forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 1-13.
  136. Guidolin, Massimo & Timmermann, Allan, 2007. "Asset allocation under multivariate regime switching," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(11), pages 3503-3544, November.
  137. Tsyplakov, Alexander, 2013. "Evaluation of Probabilistic Forecasts: Proper Scoring Rules and Moments," MPRA Paper 45186, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  138. Kang, Byung Jin & Kim, Tong Suk, 2008. "Empirical risk aversion functions-estimates and assessment of their reliability," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 1123-1138, December.
  139. Amendola, Alessandra & Christian, Francq, 2009. "Concepts and tools for nonlinear time series modelling," MPRA Paper 15140, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  140. Haas Markus, 2010. "Skew-Normal Mixture and Markov-Switching GARCH Processes," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 14(4), pages 1-56, September.
  141. Karsten R. Gerdrup & Anne Sofie Jore & Christie Smith & Leif Anders Thorsrud, 2009. "Evaluating ensemble density combination - forecasting GDP and inflation," Working Paper 2009/19, Norges Bank.
  142. Bahram Pesaran & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2010. "Conditional Volatility and Correlations of Weekly Returns and the VaR Analysis of 2008 Stock Market Crash," CESifo Working Paper Series 3023, CESifo Group Munich.
  143. Siakoulis, Vasilios, 2015. "Modeling bank default intensity in the USA using autoregressive duration models," MPRA Paper 64526, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  144. Isao Ishida, 2005. "Scanning Multivariate Conditional Densities with Probability Integral Transforms," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-369, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
  145. Luiz Renato Regis de Oliveira Lima & Wagner Piazza Gaglianone, 2012. "Constructing Optimal Density Forecasts from Point Forecast Combinations," Série Textos para Discussão (Working Papers) 5, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Economia - PPGE, Universidade Federal da Paraíba.
  146. Chen, Qian & Gerlach, Richard H., 2013. "The two-sided Weibull distribution and forecasting financial tail risk," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 527-540.
  147. Francisco Alonso & Roberto Blanco & Gonzalo Rubio, 2005. "Testing the forecasting performace of IBEX 35 option implied risk neutral densities," Working Papers 0504, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
  148. Leccadito, Arturo & Boffelli, Simona & Urga, Giovanni, 2014. "Evaluating the accuracy of value-at-risk forecasts: New multilevel tests," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 206-216.
  149. GIOT, Pierre & PETITJEAN, Mikael, 2006. "The information content of the Bond-Equity Yield Ratio: better than a random walk?," CORE Discussion Papers 2006089, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  150. Chang, Kuang-Liang, 2012. "Volatility regimes, asymmetric basis effects and forecasting performance: An empirical investigation of the WTI crude oil futures market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 294-306.
  151. Juan Carlos Escanciano & Zaichao Du, 2015. "Backtesting Expected Shortfall: Accounting for Tail Risk," Caepr Working Papers 2015-001, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Economics Department, Indiana University Bloomington.
  152. Sara Cecchetti & Laura Sigalotti, 2013. "Forward-looking robust portfolio selection," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 913, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  153. Escanciano, Juan Carlos & Pei, Pei, 2012. "Pitfalls in backtesting Historical Simulation VaR models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 2233-2244.
  154. Garland Durham & John Geweke, 2013. "Adaptive Sequential Posterior Simulators for Massively Parallel Computing Environments," Working Paper Series 9, Economics Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
  155. Rosch, Daniel, 2005. "An empirical comparison of default risk forecasts from alternative credit rating philosophies," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 37-51.
  156. Kostas Mouratidis & Dimitris Kenourgios & Aris Samitas, 2010. "Evaluating currency crisis:A multivariate Markov switching approach," Working Papers 2010018, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics, revised Oct 2010.
  157. Louzis, Dimitrios P. & Xanthopoulos-Sisinis, Spyros & Refenes, Apostolos P., 2014. "Realized volatility models and alternative Value-at-Risk prediction strategies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 101-116.
  158. Philippas, Dionisis & Siriopoulos, Costas, 2013. "Putting the “C” into crisis: Contagion, correlations and copulas on EMU bond markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 161-176.
  159. Houda Ben Hadj Boubaker, 2011. "The Forecasting Performance of Seasonal and Nonlinear Models," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 1(1), pages 26-39, March.
  160. David Ardia & Lukasz Gatarek & Lennart F. Hoogerheide, 2014. "A New Bootstrap Test for the Validity of a Set of Marginal Models for Multiple Dependent Time Series: An Application to Risk Analysis," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 14-028/III, Tinbergen Institute.
  161. Francisco Alonso & Roberto Blanco & Gonzalo Rubio, 2006. "Option-implied preferences adjustments, density forecasts, and the equity risk premium," Working Papers 0630, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
  162. Kenourgios, Dimitris & Samitas, Aristeidis & Paltalidis, Nikos, 2011. "Financial crises and stock market contagion in a multivariate time-varying asymmetric framework," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 92-106, February.
  163. esposito, francesco paolo & cummins, mark, 2015. "Multiple hypothesis testing of market risk forecasting models," MPRA Paper 64986, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  164. Dr. James Mitchell, 2008. "Evaluating Density Forecasts: Forecast Combinations, Model Mixtures, Calibration and Sharpness," NIESR Discussion Papers 320, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
  165. Nieto, Maria Rosa & Ruiz, Esther, 2016. "Frontiers in VaR forecasting and backtesting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 475-501.
  166. Meade, Nigel & Islam, Towhidul, 2015. "Modelling European usage of renewable energy technologies for electricity generation," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 90(PB), pages 497-509.
  167. Joanna Janczura & Rafał Weron, 2013. "Goodness-of-fit testing for the marginal distribution of regime-switching models with an application to electricity spot prices," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 97(3), pages 239-270, July.
  168. Roberta Cardani & Alessia Paccagnini & Stefania Villa, 2015. "Forecasting with Instabilities: an Application to DSGE Models with Financial Frictions," Working Papers 201523, School of Economics, University College Dublin.
  169. Bedendo, Mascia & Hodges, Stewart D., 2009. "The dynamics of the volatility skew: A Kalman filter approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1156-1165, June.
  170. Manzan, Sebastiano & Zerom, Dawit, 2013. "Are macroeconomic variables useful for forecasting the distribution of U.S. inflation?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 469-478.
  171. Bruce Mizrach, 2007. "Recovering Probabilistic Information From Options Prices and the Underlying," Departmental Working Papers 200702, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  172. Wojciech Charemza & Carlos Díaz & Svetlana Makarova, 2015. "Choosing the Right Skew Normal Distribution: the Macroeconomist’ Dilemma," Discussion Papers in Economics 15/08, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
  173. Hugo Gerard & Kristoffer Nimark, 2008. "Combining multivariate density forecasts using predictive criteria," Economics Working Papers 1117, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Oct 2008.
  174. Andres, P. & Harvey, A., 2012. "The Dyanamic Location/Scale Model: with applications to intra-day financial data," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1240, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  175. Sean D. Campbell, 2005. "A review of backtesting and backtesting procedures," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-21, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  176. Stavros Degiannakis & Pamela Dent & Christos Floros, 2014. "A Monte Carlo Simulation Approach to Forecasting Multi-period Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall Using the FIGARCH-skT Specification," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 82(1), pages 71-102, 01.
  177. Haas, Markus & Mittnik, Stefan, 2008. "Multivariate regimeswitching GARCH with an application to international stock markets," CFS Working Paper Series 2008/08, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  178. Ida Wolden Bache & James Mitchell & Francesco Ravazzolo & Shaun P. Vahey, 2009. "Macro modelling with many models," Working Paper 2009/15, Norges Bank.
  179. Siliverstovs, B. & van Dijk, D.J.C., 2003. "Forecasting industrial production with linear, nonlinear, and structural change models," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2003-16, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  180. GIOT, Pierre, 2003. "The information content of implied volatility indexes for forecasting volatility and market risk," CORE Discussion Papers 2003027, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  181. M. Hashem Pesaran & Bahram Pesaran, 2007. "Volatilities and Conditional Correlations in Futures Markets with a Multivariate t Distribution," CESifo Working Paper Series 2056, CESifo Group Munich.
  182. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2013. "Evaluating the accuracy of forecasts from vector autoregressions," Working Papers 2013-010, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  183. Christophe HURLIN & Sessi TOKPAVI, 2006. "Backtesting VaR Accuracy: A Simple and Powerful Test," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 268, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.
This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.