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Citations for "Testing Density Forecasts, with Applications to Risk Management"

by Berkowitz, Jeremy

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  1. von der Gracht, Heiko A. & Hommel, Ulrich & Prokesch, Tobias & Wohlenberg, Holger, 2016. "Testing weighting approaches for forecasting in a Group Wisdom Support System environment," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 69(10), pages 4081-4094.
  2. Billio, Monica & Casarin, Roberto & Ravazzolo, Francesco & van Dijk, Herman K., 2013. "Time-varying combinations of predictive densities using nonlinear filtering," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(2), pages 213-232.
  3. Haas Markus, 2010. "Skew-Normal Mixture and Markov-Switching GARCH Processes," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 14(4), pages 1-56, September.
  4. repec:eee:ecmode:v:64:y:2017:i:c:p:153-171 is not listed on IDEAS
  5. Isao Ishida, 2005. "Scanning Multivariate Conditional Densities with Probability Integral Transforms," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-369, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
  6. Davide Delle Monache & Ivan Petrella, 2014. "Adaptive Models and Heavy Tails," Working Papers 720, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  7. Friedmann, Ralph & Sanddorf-Kohle, Walter G., 2007. "A conditional distribution model for limited stock index returns," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 721-741, March.
  8. Monticini, Andrea & Ravazzolo, Francesco, 2014. "Forecasting the intraday market price of money," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 304-315.
  9. Delle Monache, Davide & Petrella, Ivan, 2017. "Adaptive models and heavy tails with an application to inflation forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 482-501.
  10. Michael Clements, 2016. "Are Macroeconomic Density Forecasts Informative?," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2016-02, Henley Business School, Reading University.
  11. Bekiros Stelios & Paccagnini Alessia, 2015. "Estimating point and density forecasts for the US economy with a factor-augmented vector autoregressive DSGE model," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 19(2), pages 107-136, April.
  12. Ng, Jason & Forbes, Catherine S. & Martin, Gael M. & McCabe, Brendan P.M., 2013. "Non-parametric estimation of forecast distributions in non-Gaussian, non-linear state space models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 411-430.
  13. Geweke, John & Amisano, Gianni, 2010. "Comparing and evaluating Bayesian predictive distributions of asset returns," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 216-230, April.
  14. Garland Durham & John Geweke, 2013. "Adaptive Sequential Posterior Simulators for Massively Parallel Computing Environments," Working Paper Series 9, Economics Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
  15. Bauwens, Luc & Giot, Pierre & Grammig, Joachim & Veredas, David, 2004. "A comparison of financial duration models via density forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 589-609.
  16. Righi, Marcelo Brutti & Ceretta, Paulo Sergio, 2015. "A comparison of Expected Shortfall estimation models," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 14-47.
  17. Davide Pettenuzzo & Konstantinos Metaxoglou & Aaron Smith, 2016. "Option-Implied Equity Premium Predictions via Entropic TiltinG," Working Papers 99, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Businesss School.
  18. Shackleton, Mark B. & Taylor, Stephen J. & Yu, Peng, 2010. "A multi-horizon comparison of density forecasts for the S&P 500 using index returns and option prices," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 2678-2693, November.
  19. Bjørnland, Hilde C. & Ravazzolo, Francesco & Thorsrud, Leif Anders, 2017. "Forecasting GDP with global components: This time is different," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 153-173.
  20. Barbara Rossi & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2014. "Alternative tests for correct specification of conditional predictive densities," Economics Working Papers 1416, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jul 2017.
  21. Ivanova, Vesela & Puigvert Gutiérrez, Josep Maria, 2014. "Interest rate forecasts, state price densities and risk premium from Euribor options," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 210-223.
  22. Guidolin, Massimo & Timmermann, Allan, 2007. "Asset allocation under multivariate regime switching," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(11), pages 3503-3544, November.
  23. Dovern, Jonas & Manner, Hans, 2016. "Robust Evaluation of Multivariate Density Forecasts," Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145547, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  24. Stavros Degiannakis & Pamela Dent & Christos Floros, 2014. "A Monte Carlo Simulation Approach to Forecasting Multi-period Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall Using the FIGARCH-skT Specification," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 82(1), pages 71-102, 01.
  25. Lucio Sarno, 2003. "Nonlinear Exchange Rate Models: A Selective Overview," Rivista di Politica Economica, SIPI Spa, vol. 93(4), pages 3-46, July-Augu.
  26. Marinela BARBULESCU & Alina HAGIU, 2016. "Aspects Of The Financial Risk In The Romanian Economy Versus The French Economy - Comparative Perspective And Analysis," Scientific Bulletin - Economic Sciences, University of Pitesti, vol. 15(1), pages 69-76.
  27. Liu, Xiaoquan & Shackleton, Mark B. & Taylor, Stephen J. & Xu, Xinzhong, 2007. "Closed-form transformations from risk-neutral to real-world distributions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 1501-1520, May.
  28. Massimiliano Marcellino & Mario Porqueddu & Fabrizio Venditti, 2016. "Short-Term GDP Forecasting With a Mixed-Frequency Dynamic Factor Model With Stochastic Volatility," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(1), pages 118-127, January.
  29. Li, Xiao-Ming & Rose, Lawrence C., 2009. "The tail risk of emerging stock markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 242-256, December.
  30. Degiannakis, Stavros & Floros, Christos, 2013. "Modeling CAC40 volatility using ultra-high frequency data," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 68-81.
  31. Philippas, Dionisis & Siriopoulos, Costas, 2013. "Putting the “C” into crisis: Contagion, correlations and copulas on EMU bond markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 161-176.
  32. Trino-Manuel Niguez & Javier Perote, 2004. "Forecasting the density of asset returns," STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series 479, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
  33. GIOT, Pierre & PETITJEAN, Mikael, 2005. "Dynamic asset allocation between stocks and bonds using the Bond-Equity Yield Ratio," CORE Discussion Papers 2005010, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  34. Giot, Pierre & Petitjean, Mikael, 2007. "The information content of the Bond-Equity Yield Ratio: Better than a random walk?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 289-305.
  35. Joanna Janczura & Rafał Weron, 2013. "Goodness-of-fit testing for the marginal distribution of regime-switching models with an application to electricity spot prices," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 97(3), pages 239-270, July.
  36. Giovanni Bonaccolto & Massimiliano Caporin, 2016. "The Determinants of Equity Risk and Their Forecasting Implications: A Quantile Regression Perspective," Journal of Risk and Financial Management, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 9(3), pages 1-25, July.
  37. Maik H. Wolters, 2015. "Evaluating Point and Density Forecasts of DSGE Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(1), pages 74-96, 01.
  38. Weron, Rafał, 2014. "Electricity price forecasting: A review of the state-of-the-art with a look into the future," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1030-1081.
  39. Siakoulis, Vasilios, 2015. "Modeling bank default intensity in the USA using autoregressive duration models," MPRA Paper 64526, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  40. Clements, Michael P., 2014. "Probability distributions or point predictions? Survey forecasts of US output growth and inflation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 99-117.
  41. Hua, Zhongsheng & Zhang, Bin, 2008. "Improving density forecast by modeling asymmetric features: An application to S&P500 returns," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 185(2), pages 716-725, March.
  42. Christoffersen, Peter & Mazzotta, Stefano, 2004. "The informational content of over-the-counter currency options," Working Paper Series 366, European Central Bank.
  43. Ravazzolo Francesco & Vahey Shaun P., 2014. "Forecast densities for economic aggregates from disaggregate ensembles," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 18(4), pages 1-15, September.
  44. Chang, Kuang-Liang, 2016. "Does the return-state-varying relationship between risk and return matter in modeling the time series process of stock return?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 72-87.
  45. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Peter F. Christoffersen & Francis X. Diebold, 2005. "Volatility Forecasting," PIER Working Paper Archive 05-011, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
  46. Polanski, Arnold & Stoja, Evarist, 2012. "Efficient evaluation of multidimensional time-varying density forecasts, with applications to risk management," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 343-352.
  47. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Christoffersen, Peter F. & Diebold, Francis X., 2006. "Volatility and Correlation Forecasting," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier.
  48. Sudheer Chava & Catalina Stefanescu & Stuart Turnbull, 2011. "Modeling the Loss Distribution," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 57(7), pages 1267-1287, July.
  49. Juan Carlos Escanciano & Zaichao Du, 2015. "Backtesting Expected Shortfall: Accounting for Tail Risk," Caepr Working Papers 2015-001, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Economics Department, Indiana University Bloomington.
  50. Gregory Connor & Lisa R. Goldberg & Robert A. Korajczyk, 2010. "Portfolio Risk Analysis," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 9224, March.
  51. Rossi, Barbara & Sekhposyan, Tatevik, 2014. "Evaluating predictive densities of US output growth and inflation in a large macroeconomic data set," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 662-682.
  52. Hanan Naser, 2015. "Estimating and forecasting Bahrain quarterly GDP growth using simple regression and factor-based methods," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(2), pages 449-479, September.
  53. Wagner Piazza Gaglianone & Luiz Renato Lima, 2014. "Constructing Optimal Density Forecasts From Point Forecast Combinations," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(5), pages 736-757, 08.
  54. Hugo Gerard & Kristoffer Nimark, 2008. "Combining multivariate density forecasts using predictive criteria," Economics Working Papers 1117, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Oct 2008.
  55. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller, 2012. "The Out-of-Sample Forecasting Performance of Non-Linear Models of Regional Housing Prices in the US," Working Papers 201226, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  56. Guidolin, Massimo & Ono, Sadayuki, 2006. "Are the dynamic linkages between the macroeconomy and asset prices time-varying?," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 58(5-6), pages 480-518.
  57. Wojciech Charemza & Carlos Diaz Vela & Svetlana Makarova, 2013. "Too many skew normal distributions? The practitioner’s perspective," Discussion Papers in Economics 13/07, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
  58. Tsyplakov, Alexander, 2014. "Theoretical guidelines for a partially informed forecast examiner," MPRA Paper 55017, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  59. Michael Funke & Julius Loermann & Richhild Moessner, 2017. "The discontinuation of the EUR/CHF minimum exchange rate in January 2015: was it expected?," BIS Working Papers 652, Bank for International Settlements.
  60. Michael P Clements & Ana Beatriz Galvao, 2017. "Data Revisions and Real-time Probabilistic Forecasting of Macroeconomic Variables," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2017-01, Henley Business School, Reading University.
  61. Kevin Dowd, 2007. "Validating multiple-period density-forecasting models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 251-270.
  62. Laih, Yih-Wenn, 2014. "Measuring rank correlation coefficients between financial time series: A GARCH-copula based sequence alignment algorithm," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 232(2), pages 375-382.
  63. Meade, Nigel & Islam, Towhidul, 2015. "Modelling European usage of renewable energy technologies for electricity generation," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 90(PB), pages 497-509.
  64. Siliverstovs, B. & van Dijk, D.J.C., 2003. "Forecasting industrial production with linear, nonlinear, and structural change models," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2003-16, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  65. Tsyplakov, Alexander, 2013. "Evaluation of Probabilistic Forecasts: Proper Scoring Rules and Moments," MPRA Paper 45186, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  66. Massimo Guidolin & Allan Timmerman, 2005. "Optimal portfolio choice under regime switching, skew and kurtosis preferences," Working Papers 2005-006, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  67. Korobilis, Dimitris, 2017. "Quantile regression forecasts of inflation under model uncertainty," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 11-20.
  68. Christophe Hurlin & Sessi Tokpavi, 2007. "Une Evaluation des Procédures de Backtesting," Working Papers halshs-00159846, HAL.
  69. Rapach, David E. & Wohar, Mark E., 2006. "The out-of-sample forecasting performance of nonlinear models of real exchange rate behavior," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 341-361.
  70. Danut CULETU & Andreea Gabriela BALTAC & Alexandru URSACHE, 2013. "Measurement of the Credit Risk," Romanian Statistical Review Supplement, Romanian Statistical Review, vol. 61(3), pages 73-80, September.
  71. Alonso, Francisco & Blanco, Roberto & Rubio Irigoyen, Gonzalo, 2005. "Option-Implied Preferences Adjustments and Risk-Neutral Density Forecasts," DFAEII Working Papers 2005-10, University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II.
  72. Dovern, Jonas & Manner, Hans, 2016. "Order Invariant Evaluation of Multivariate Density Forecasts," Working Papers 0608, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
  73. Robert R. Bliss & Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, 2001. "Recovering risk aversion from options," Working Paper Series WP-01-15, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  74. Pesaran, Bahram & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2010. "Conditional volatility and correlations of weekly returns and the VaR analysis of 2008 stock market crash," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 1398-1416, November.
  75. Haas, Markus & Mittnik, Stefan & Mizrach, Bruce, 2006. "Assessing central bank credibility during the ERM crises: Comparing option and spot market-based forecasts," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 28-54, April.
  76. Haas, Markus & Mittnik, Stefan, 2008. "Multivariate regimeswitching GARCH with an application to international stock markets," CFS Working Paper Series 2008/08, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  77. Amendola, Alessandra & Christian, Francq, 2009. "Concepts and tools for nonlinear time series modelling," MPRA Paper 15140, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  78. Sean D. Campbell, 2005. "A review of backtesting and backtesting procedures," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-21, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  79. Dendramis, Yiannis & Kapetanios, George & Tzavalis, Elias, 2014. "Level shifts in stock returns driven by large shocks," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 41-51.
  80. Caglayan, Mustafa & Jehan, Zainab & Mouratidis, Kostas, 2012. "Asymmetric monetary policy rules for open economies: Evidence from four countries," MPRA Paper 37401, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  81. Bauwens Luc & Storti Giuseppe, 2009. "A Component GARCH Model with Time Varying Weights," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 13(2), pages 1-33, May.
  82. Wong, Woon K., 2010. "Backtesting value-at-risk based on tail losses," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 526-538, June.
  83. Alexandros Kostakis & Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou & George Skiadopoulos, 2011. "Market Timing with Option-Implied Distributions: A Forward-Looking Approach," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 57(7), pages 1231-1249, July.
  84. Weng, Haijie & Trück, Stefan, 2011. "Style analysis and Value-at-Risk of Asia-focused hedge funds," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 491-510, November.
  85. Gomes-Gonçalves, Erika & Gzyl, Henryk & Mayoral, Silvia, 2015. "Two maxentropic approaches to determine the probability density of compound risk losses," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 42-53.
  86. Raunig, Burkhard, 2006. "The longer-horizon predictability of German stock market volatility," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 363-372.
  87. Vijverberg, Chu-Ping C. & Vijverberg, Wim P.M. & Taşpınar, Süleyman, 2016. "Linking Tukey’s legacy to financial risk measurement," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 595-615.
  88. Leonidas Tsiaras, 2010. "Dynamic Models of Exchange Rate Dependence Using Option Prices and Historical Returns," CREATES Research Papers 2010-35, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  89. Aramonte, Sirio & Giudice Rodriguez, Marius del & Wu, Jason, 2013. "Dynamic factor Value-at-Risk for large heteroskedastic portfolios," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4299-4309.
  90. González-Rivera, Gloria & Yoldas, Emre, 2012. "Autocontour-based evaluation of multivariate predictive densities," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 328-342.
  91. Xiaohong Chen & Yanqin Fan, 2002. "Evaluating Density Forecasts via the Copula Approach," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 0225, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics, revised Sep 2003.
  92. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Francesco Ravazzolo & Herman K. van Dijk, 2010. "Combining predictive densities using Bayesian filtering with applications to US economics data," Working Paper 2010/29, Norges Bank.
  93. Louzis, Dimitrios P. & Xanthopoulos-Sisinis, Spyros & Refenes, Apostolos P., 2014. "Realized volatility models and alternative Value-at-Risk prediction strategies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 101-116.
  94. Markus Haas & Stefan Mittnik & Marc Paolella, 2006. "Modelling and predicting market risk with Laplace-Gaussian mixture distributions," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(15), pages 1145-1162.
  95. Wolden Bache, Ida & Sofie Jore, Anne & Mitchell, James & Vahey, Shaun P., 2011. "Combining VAR and DSGE forecast densities," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 1659-1670, October.
  96. Giorgio Valente & Lucio Sarno, 2004. "Comparing the accuracy of density forecasts from competing models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(8), pages 541-557.
  97. Ziggel, Daniel & Berens, Tobias & Weiß, Gregor N.F. & Wied, Dominik, 2014. "A new set of improved Value-at-Risk backtests," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 29-41.
  98. Pritsker, Matthew, 2006. "The hidden dangers of historical simulation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 561-582, February.
  99. Lucas, André & Zhang, Xin, 2016. "Score-driven exponentially weighted moving averages and Value-at-Risk forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 293-302.
  100. Veiga, Helena & Ruiz, Esther & González-Rivera, Gloria & Gonçalves Mazzeu, Joao Henrique, 2016. "A Bootstrap Approach for Generalized Autocontour Testing," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 23457, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
  101. Corradi, Valentina & Swanson, Norman R., 2006. "Predictive density and conditional confidence interval accuracy tests," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 187-228.
  102. Dick Dijk & Philip Hans Franses, 2003. "Selecting a Nonlinear Time Series Model using Weighted Tests of Equal Forecast Accuracy," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(s1), pages 727-744, December.
  103. Sara Cecchetti & Laura Sigalotti, 2013. "Forward-looking robust portfolio selection," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 913, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  104. Zacharias Psaradakis & Fabio Spagnolo, 2005. "Forecast performance of nonlinear error-correction models with multiple regimes," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(2), pages 119-138.
  105. Andres, P. & Harvey, A., 2012. "The Dyanamic Location/Scale Model: with applications to intra-day financial data," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1240, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  106. Leccadito, Arturo & Boffelli, Simona & Urga, Giovanni, 2014. "Evaluating the accuracy of value-at-risk forecasts: New multilevel tests," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 206-216.
  107. Manzan, Sebastiano & Zerom, Dawit, 2013. "Are macroeconomic variables useful for forecasting the distribution of U.S. inflation?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 469-478.
  108. Zikovic, Sasa & Aktan, Bora, 2011. "Decay factor optimisation in time weighted simulation -- Evaluating VaR performance," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 1147-1159, October.
  109. Refet Gürkaynak & Justin Wolfers, 2005. "Macroeconomic Derivatives: An Initial Analysis of Market-Based Macro Forecasts, Uncertainty, and Risk," NBER Chapters,in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2005, pages 11-50 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  110. Durham, Garland B., 2006. "Monte Carlo methods for estimating, smoothing, and filtering one- and two-factor stochastic volatility models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 133(1), pages 273-305, July.
  111. Kim, Kun Ho, 2011. "Density forecasting through disaggregation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 394-412.
  112. Marc Saidenberg & Til Schuermann & May, "undated". "The New Basel Capital Accord and Questions for Research," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 03-14, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
  113. Tommaso Proietti & Martyna Marczak & Gianluigi Mazzi, 2015. "EuroMInd-D: A Density Estimate of Monthly Gross Domestic Product for the Euro Area," CREATES Research Papers 2015-12, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
  114. Benjamin R. Auer & Benjamin Mögel, 2016. "How Accurate are Modern Value-at-Risk Estimators Derived from Extreme Value Theory?," CESifo Working Paper Series 6288, CESifo Group Munich.
  115. Segnon, Mawuli & Lux, Thomas, 2013. "Multifractal models in finance: Their origin, properties, and applications," Kiel Working Papers 1860, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
  116. Andreas Stadie, 2003. "Detecting periods in which a time series model fails to predict the observed volatility," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 18(3), pages 375-386, September.
  117. Markus Haas, 2004. "Mixed Normal Conditional Heteroskedasticity," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 2(2), pages 211-250.
  118. Kenourgios, Dimitris & Samitas, Aristeidis & Paltalidis, Nikos, 2011. "Financial crises and stock market contagion in a multivariate time-varying asymmetric framework," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 92-106, February.
  119. Vasileios Siakoulis & Ioannis Venetis, 2015. "On inter-arrival times of bond market extreme events. An application to seven European markets," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 39(4), pages 717-741, October.
  120. Fabozzi, Frank J. & Leccadito, Arturo & Tunaru, Radu S., 2014. "Extracting market information from equity options with exponential Lévy processes," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 125-141.
  121. Raffaella Giacomini & Barbara Rossi, 2015. "Forecasting in Nonstationary Environments: What Works and What Doesn't in Reduced-Form and Structural Models," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 207-229, August.
  122. Wong, Woon K., 2008. "Backtesting trading risk of commercial banks using expected shortfall," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(7), pages 1404-1415, July.
  123. Boucher, Christophe M. & Daníelsson, Jón & Kouontchou, Patrick S. & Maillet, Bertrand B., 2014. "Risk models-at-risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 72-92.
  124. Beck Alexander & Kim Young Shin Aaron & Rachev Svetlozar & Feindt Michael & Fabozzi Frank, 2013. "Empirical analysis of ARMA-GARCH models in market risk estimation on high-frequency US data," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 17(2), pages 167-177, April.
  125. Bruce Mizrach, 2007. "Recovering Probabilistic Information From Options Prices and the Underlying," Departmental Working Papers 200702, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  126. Alexios Ghalanos & Eduardo Rossi & Giovanni Urga, 2015. "Independent Factor Autoregressive Conditional Density Model," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(5), pages 594-616, May.
  127. Kim, Young Shin & Rachev, Svetlozar T. & Bianchi, Michele Leonardo & Mitov, Ivan & Fabozzi, Frank J., 2011. "Time series analysis for financial market meltdowns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 1879-1891, August.
  128. Borusyak, K., 2011. "Nonlinear Dynamics of the Russian Stock Market in Problems of Risk Management," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, issue 11, pages 85-105.
  129. Michael B. Gordy & Hsiao Yen Lok & Alexander J. McNeil, 2017. "Spectral backtests of forecast distributions with application to risk management," Papers 1708.01489, arXiv.org.
  130. Kang, Byung Jin & Kim, Tong Suk, 2006. "Option-implied risk preferences: An extension to wider classes of utility functions," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 180-198, May.
  131. Alonso, Francisco & Blanco, Roberto & Rubio Irigoyen, Gonzalo, 2005. "Testing the Forecasting Performance of Ibex 35 Option-implied Risk-neutral Densities," DFAEII Working Papers 2005-09, University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II.
  132. Igor L. Kheifets, 2015. "Specification tests for nonlinear dynamic models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 18(1), pages 67-94, 02.
  133. Kang, Byung Jin & Kim, Tong Suk, 2008. "Empirical risk aversion functions-estimates and assessment of their reliability," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 1123-1138, December.
  134. Bisht Deepak & Laha, A. K., 2017. "Assessment of Density Forecast for Energy Commodities in Post-Financialization Era," IIMA Working Papers WP 2017-07-01, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Research and Publication Department.
  135. Galvão, Ana Beatriz, 2017. "Data revisions and DSGE models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 196(1), pages 215-232.
  136. Houda Ben Hadj Boubaker, 2011. "The Forecasting Performance of Seasonal and Nonlinear Models," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 1(1), pages 26-39, March.
  137. Mouratidis, Kostas, 2008. "Evaluating currency crises: A Bayesian Markov switching approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1688-1711, December.
  138. Garratt, Anthony & Mitchell, James & Vahey, Shaun P., 2014. "Measuring output gap nowcast uncertainty," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 268-279.
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  143. Cees Diks & Valentyn Panchenko & Dick van Dijk, 2008. "Partial Likelihood-Based Scoring Rules for Evaluating Density Forecasts in Tails," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 08-050/4, Tinbergen Institute.
  144. De Gooijer, Jan G. & Vidiella-i-Anguera, Antoni, 2004. "Forecasting threshold cointegrated systems," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 237-253.
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  147. Anne Sofie Jore & James Mitchell & Shaun P. Vahey, 2010. "Combining forecast densities from VARs with uncertain instabilities," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 621-634.
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  151. Harvey, Andrew & Oryshchenko, Vitaliy, 2012. "Kernel density estimation for time series data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 3-14.
  152. Bartram, Söhnke M. & Wang, Yaw-Huei, 2015. "European financial market dependence: An industry analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 146-163.
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  156. Marinela BARBULESCU & Alina HAGIU & Cristina BALDAN, 2015. "Contingencies For Measurement Of The Credit Risk," Scientific Bulletin - Economic Sciences, University of Pitesti, vol. 14(3), pages 60-65.
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  161. Anthony Garratt & James Mitchell & Shaun P. Vahey, 2009. "Measuring Output Gap Uncertainty," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0909, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
  162. Clements, Michael P, 2012. "Subjective and Ex Post Forecast Uncertainty : US Inflation and Output Growth," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 995, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
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  167. Chang, Kuang-Liang, 2012. "Volatility regimes, asymmetric basis effects and forecasting performance: An empirical investigation of the WTI crude oil futures market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 294-306.
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  199. Francisco Alonso & Roberto Blanco & Gonzalo Rubio, 2005. "Testing the forecasting performace of IBEX 35 option implied risk neutral densities," Working Papers 0504, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
  200. Jakub Nowotarski & Rafal Weron, 2016. "Recent advances in electricity price forecasting: A review of probabilistic forecasting," HSC Research Reports HSC/16/07, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
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