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Citations for "Forecasting using a large number of predictors: Is Bayesian shrinkage a valid alternative to principal components?"

by De Mol, Christine & Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia

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  1. Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele & Primiceri, Giorgio E, 2012. "Prior Selection for Vector Autoregressions," CEPR Discussion Papers 8755, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Henzel, Steffen R. & Mayr, Johannes, 2013. "The mechanics of VAR forecast pooling—A DSGE model based Monte Carlo study," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 1-24.
  3. Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2007. "Explaining The Great Moderation: It Is Not The Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 6600, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Eickmeier, Sandra & Ng, Tim, 2009. "Forecasting national activity using lots of international predictors: an application to New Zealand," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2009,11, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  5. Mayr, Johannes, 2010. "Forecasting Macroeconomic Aggregates," Munich Dissertations in Economics 11140, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
  6. A. Carriero & G. Kapetanios & M. Marcellino, 2010. "Forecasting Government Bond Yields with Large Bayesian VARs," Economics Working Papers ECO2010/17, European University Institute.
  7. Deryugina , Elena & Ponomarenko , Alexey, 2014. "A large Bayesian vector autoregression model for Russia," BOFIT Discussion Papers 22/2014, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  8. Raffaella Giacomini, 2012. "Incorporating theoretical restrictions into forecasting by projection methods," 2012 Meeting Papers 548, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  9. Chudik, Alexander & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2014. "Theory and practice of GVAR modeling," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 180, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  10. Onatski, Alexei, 2012. "Asymptotics of the principal components estimator of large factor models with weakly influential factors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 168(2), pages 244-258.
  11. Stelios Bekiros & Alessia Paccagnini, 2013. "On the predictability of time-varying VAR and DSGE models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 635-664, August.
  12. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2009. "Boosting diffusion indices," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(4), pages 607-629.
  13. Carriero, A. & Kapetanios, G. & Marcellino, M., 2009. "Forecasting exchange rates with a large Bayesian VAR," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 400-417.
  14. Matteo Barigozzi & Christian Brownlees, 2013. "Nets: Network Estimation for Time Series," Working Papers 723, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
  15. Kuzin, Vladimir & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Schumacher, Christian, 2009. "Pooling versus model selection for nowcasting with many predictors: An application to German GDP," CEPR Discussion Papers 7197, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  16. Chudik, Alexander & Pesaran, Hashem, 2009. "Infinite-dimensional VARs and factor models," Working Paper Series 0998, European Central Bank.
  17. Lombardi, Marco J. & Osbat, Chiara & Schnatz, Bernd, 2010. "Global commodity cycles and linkages a FAVAR approach," Working Paper Series 1170, European Central Bank.
  18. Andrea Carriero & George Kapetanios & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2009. "Forecasting Large Datasets with Bayesian Reduced Rank Multivariate Models," Economics Working Papers ECO2009/31, European University Institute.
  19. Korobilis, Dimitris, 2011. "Hierarchical shrinkage priors for dynamic regressions with many predictors," MPRA Paper 30380, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  20. Luigi Paciello, 2011. "Does Inflation Adjust Faster to Aggregate Technology Shocks than to Monetary Policy Shocks?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(8), pages 1663-1684, December.
  21. Bernoth, Kerstin & Pick, Andreas, 2011. "Forecasting the fragility of the banking and insurance sectors," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 807-818, April.
  22. Jana Eklund & George Kapetanios, 2008. "A Review of Forecasting Techniques for Large Data Sets," Working Papers 625, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  23. Castle, Jennifer L. & Clements, Michael P. & Hendry, David F., 2013. "Forecasting by factors, by variables, by both or neither?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 177(2), pages 305-319.
  24. Jarociński, Marek, 2010. "Imposing parsimony in cross-country growth regressions," Working Paper Series 1234, European Central Bank.
  25. Alexander Chudik & Valerie Grossman & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2014. "A Multi-Country Approach to Forecasting Output Growth Using PMIs," CESifo Working Paper Series 5100, CESifo Group Munich.
  26. Luciani, Matteo, 2014. "Forecasting with approximate dynamic factor models: The role of non-pervasive shocks," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 20-29.
  27. Jan J. J. Groen & George Kapetanios, 2008. "Revisiting useful approaches to data-rich macroeconomic forecasting," Staff Reports 327, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  28. Carriero, Andrea & Kapetanios, George & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2012. "Forecasting government bond yields with large Bayesian vector autoregressions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 2026-2047.
  29. Goodness C. Aye & Rangan Gupta, 2013. "Forecasting Real House Price of the U.S.: An Analysis Covering 1890 to 2012," Working Papers 201362, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  30. C. Marsilli, 2014. "Variable Selection in Predictive MIDAS Models," Working papers 520, Banque de France.
  31. Miguel, Belmonte & Gary, Koop & Dimitris, Korobilis, 2011. "Hierarchical shrinkage in time-varying parameter models," MPRA Paper 31827, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  32. Ricco, Giovanni & Ellahie, Atif, 2012. "Government Spending Reloaded: Fundamentalness and Heterogeneity in Fiscal SVARs," MPRA Paper 42105, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  33. Bańbura, Marta & Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele, 2014. "Conditional forecasts and scenario analysis with vector autoregressions for large cross-sections," Working Paper Series 1733, European Central Bank.
  34. Eliana González, 2011. "Forecasting With Many Predictors. An Empirical Comparison," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 007996, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  35. Bai, Jushan & Ng, Serena, 2008. "Forecasting economic time series using targeted predictors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 304-317, October.
  36. Canova, Fabio & Ciccarelli, Matteo, 2013. "Panel vector autoregressive models: a survey," Working Paper Series 1507, European Central Bank.
  37. Massimiliano Marcellino & Christian Schumacher, 2008. "Factor-MIDAS for Now- and Forecasting with Ragged-Edge Data: A Model Comparison for German GDP," Economics Working Papers ECO2008/16, European University Institute.
  38. Lenza, Michele & Pill, Huw & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2010. "Monetary policy in exceptional times," Working Paper Series 1253, European Central Bank.
  39. Rachida Ouysse, 2011. "Comparison of Bayesian moving Average and Principal Component Forecast for Large Dimensional Factor Models," Discussion Papers 2012-03, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
  40. Pirschel, Inske & Wolters, Maik, 2014. "Forecasting German key macroeconomic variables using large dataset methods," Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100587, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  41. Adina Popescu & Alina Carare, 2011. "Monetary Policy and Risk-Premium Shocks in Hungary; Results from a Large Bayesian VAR," IMF Working Papers 11/259, International Monetary Fund.
  42. Gianluca Cubadda & Barbara Guardabascio, 2010. "A Medium-N Approach to Macroeconomic Forecasting," CEIS Research Paper 176, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 09 Dec 2010.
  43. repec:dgr:uvatin:20110007 is not listed on IDEAS
  44. Bańbura, Marta & Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2008. "Large Bayesian VARs," Working Paper Series 0966, European Central Bank.
  45. Julieta Fuentes & Pilar Poncela & Julio Rodríguez, 2012. "Sparse partial least squares in time series for macroeconomic forecasting," Statistics and Econometrics Working Papers ws122216, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Estadística y Econometría.
  46. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2012. "Generalized Shrinkage Methods for Forecasting Using Many Predictors," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(4), pages 481-493, June.
  47. Marc Hallin & Marco Lippi, 2013. "Factor Models in High-Dimensional Time Series: A Time-Domain Approach," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2013-15, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  48. Ricco, Giovanni & Callegari, Giovanni & Cimadomo, Jacopo, 2014. "Signals from the Government: Policy Uncertainty and the Transmission of Fiscal Shocks," MPRA Paper 56136, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  49. Gupta, Rangan & Kabundi, Alain & Miller, Stephen M., 2011. "Forecasting the US real house price index: Structural and non-structural models with and without fundamentals," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 2013-2021, July.
  50. Jan J. J. Groen & Richard Paap & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2009. "Real-time inflation forecasting in a changing world," Staff Reports 388, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  51. Altavilla, Carlo & Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele, 2014. "The financial and macroeconomic effects of OMT announcements," Working Paper Series 1707, European Central Bank.
  52. Rangan Gupta & Marius Jurgilas & Alain Kabundi & Stephen M. Miller, 2009. "Monetary Policy and Housing Sector Dynamics in a Large-Scale Bayesian Vector Autoregressive Model," Working papers 2009-19, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
  53. Marek Rusnak, 2013. "Nowcasting Czech GDP in Real Time," Working Papers 2013/06, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  54. Carlo Altavilla & Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza, 2014. "The Financial and Macroeconomic Effects of the OMT Announcements," CSEF Working Papers 352, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
  55. Chris Bloor & Troy Matheson, 2008. "Analysing shock transmission in a data-rich environment: A large BVAR for New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2008/09, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  56. Simone Auer, 2014. "Monetary Policy Shocks and Foreign Investment Income: Evidence from a large Bayesian VAR," Working Papers 2014-02, Swiss National Bank.
  57. Giovannelli, Alessandro & Proietti, Tommaso, 2014. "On the Selection of Common Factors for Macroeconomic Forecasting," MPRA Paper 60673, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  58. Peter Exterkate & Patrick J.F. Groenen & Christiaan Heij & Dick van Dijk, 2013. "Nonlinear Forecasting With Many Predictors Using Kernel Ridge Regression," CREATES Research Papers 2013-16, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  59. Dimitris P. Louzis, 2014. "Macroeconomic and credit forecasts in a small economy during crisis: A large Bayesian VAR approach," Working Papers 184, Bank of Greece.
  60. Sydney C. Ludvigson & Serena Ng, 2009. "A Factor Analysis of Bond Risk Premia," NBER Working Papers 15188, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  61. Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele & Pill, Huw & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2012. "The ECB and the Interbank Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 8844, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  62. Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele & Pill, Huw & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2010. "Non-standard Monetary Policy Measures and Monetary Developments," CEPR Discussion Papers 8125, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  63. Bloor, Chris & Matheson, Troy, 2011. "Real-time conditional forecasts with Bayesian VARs: An application to New Zealand," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 26-42, January.
  64. Nikolaus Hautsch & Fuyu Yang, 2014. "Bayesian Stochastic Search for the Best Predictors: Nowcasting GDP Growth," University of East Anglia Applied and Financial Economics Working Paper Series 056, School of Economics, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK..
  65. Robinson Durán & Evelyn Garrido & Carolina Godoy & Juan de Dios Tena, 2012. "Predicción de la inflación en México con modelos desagregados por componente," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 27(1), pages 133-167.
  66. Helmut Lütkepohl, 2014. "Structural Vector Autoregressive Analysis in a Data Rich Environment: A Survey," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2014-004, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  67. Helmut Lütkepohl, 2012. "Fundamental Problems with Nonfundamental Shocks," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1230, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  68. Joshua Brodie & Ingrid Daubechies & Christine De Mol & Domenico Giannone & Ignace Loris, 2007. "Sparse and stable Markowitz portfolios," Papers 0708.0046, arXiv.org, revised May 2008.
  69. Jiahan Li & Ilias Tsiakas & Wei Wang, 2014. "Predicting Exchange Rates Out of Sample: Can Economic Fundamentals Beat the Random Walk?," Working Paper Series 05_14, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
  70. Gary, Koop, 2013. "Using VARs and TVP-VARs with Many Macroeconomic Variables," SIRE Discussion Papers 2013-35, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
  71. Andrea Carriero & Todd E. Clark & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2012. "Real-time nowcasting with a Bayesian mixed frequency model with stochastic volatility," Working Paper 1227, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  72. Fady Barsoum, 2013. "The Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on a Panel of Stock Market Volatilities: A Factor-Augmented Bayesian VAR Approach," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2013-15, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
  73. repec:dgr:uvatin:2011007 is not listed on IDEAS
  74. Massimiliano Marcellino & Christian Schumacher, 2008. "Factor-MIDAS for Now- and Forecasting with Ragged-Edge Data: A Model Comparison for German GDP1," Working Papers 333, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  75. Liebermann, Joelle, 2012. "Real-time forecasting in a data-rich environment," MPRA Paper 39452, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  76. Eliana González, . "Forecasting With Many Predictors. An Empirical Comparison," Borradores de Economia 643, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  77. Frank Schorfheide & Dongho Song, 2013. "Real-Time Forecasting with a Mixed-Frequency VAR," NBER Working Papers 19712, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  78. Kaabia, Olfa & Abid, Ilyes & Guesmi, Khaled, 2013. "Does Bayesian shrinkage help to better reflect what happened during the subprime crisis?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 423-432.
  79. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2013. "Forecasting and Nowcasting Macroeconomic Variables: A Methodological Overview," Economics Series Working Papers 674, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  80. Ching Wai (Jeremy) Chiu & Bjørn Eraker & Andrew T. Foerster & Tae Bong Kim & Hernán D. Seoane, 2011. "Estimating VAR's sampled at mixed or irregular spaced frequencies : a Bayesian approach," Research Working Paper RWP 11-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  81. Li, Jiahan & Chen, Weiye, 2014. "Forecasting macroeconomic time series: LASSO-based approaches and their forecast combinations with dynamic factor models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 996-1015.
  82. Lucrezia Reichlin, 2009. "Comment on "How Has the Euro Changed the Monetary Transmission Mechanism?"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2008, Volume 23, pages 127-139 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  83. Domenico Giannone & Michèle Lenza & Daphné Momferatu & Luca Onorante, 2010. "Short-term inflation projections: a Bayesian vector autoregressive approach," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2010-011, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  84. A. Girardi & R. Golinelli & C. Pappalardo, 2014. "The Role of Indicator Selection in Nowcasting Euro Area GDP in Pseudo Real Time," Working Papers wp919, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
  85. Haroon Mumtaz & Nitin Kumar, 2012. "An application of data-rich environment for policy analysis of the Indian economy," Joint Research Papers 2, Centre for Central Banking Studies, Bank of England.
  86. Rangan Gupta, 2012. "Forecasting House Prices for the Four Census Regions and the Aggregate US Economy: The Role of a Data-Rich Environment," Working Papers 201214, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  87. Gefang, Deborah, 2014. "Bayesian doubly adaptive elastic-net Lasso for VAR shrinkage," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 1-11.
  88. Petre Caraiani, 2014. "Do money and financial variables help forecasting output in emerging European Economies?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(2), pages 743-763, March.
  89. Scharnagl, Michael & Schumacher, Christian, 2007. "Reconsidering the role of monetary indicators for euro area inflation from a Bayesian perspective using group inclusion probabilities," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,09, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  90. David de Antonio Liedo & Elena Fernández Muñoz, 2010. "Nowcasting Spanish GDP growth in real time: "One and a half months earlier"," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 1037, Banco de Espa�a.
  91. Chudik, Alexander & Grossman, Valerie & Pesaran, M. Hashem, 2014. "A multi-country approach to forecasting output growth using PMIs," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 213, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  92. Rangan Gupta & Mampho P. Modise & Josine Uwilingiye, 2011. "Out-of-Sample Equity Premium Predictability in South Africa: Evidence from a Large Number of Predictors," Working Papers 201122, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.