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Co-movement of precious metals and forecasting using scale by scale wavelet transform

Author

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  • Emrah Oral

    (Financial Economics Graduate Program, Yeditepe University, Istanbul 34755, Turkey)

  • Gazanfer Unal

    (Financial Economics Graduate Program, Yeditepe University, Istanbul 34755, Turkey)

Abstract

In this paper, a new approach is proposed to improve forecasting performances. We analyze the co-movement of precious metals (daily data of gold, silver and platinum starting from July, 2011) using multiple wavelet coherence and determine the movement dependencies on frequency–time space. The data is split into frequencies using scale by scale continuous wavelet transform. All three time series retaining the same frequency scale are (i) selected, (ii) inversed and (ii) forecasted using multivariate model, Vector Auto Regressive Moving Average (VARMA). We conclude that the efficiency of VARMA forecasting is substantially increased because of same frequency highly correlated time series obtained by using scale by scale wavelet transform. Moreover, the direction of price shift (increasing/decreasing trend) is prospected to an adequately distinguishable degree.

Suggested Citation

  • Emrah Oral & Gazanfer Unal, 2017. "Co-movement of precious metals and forecasting using scale by scale wavelet transform," International Journal of Financial Engineering (IJFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 4(01), pages 1-21, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:ijfexx:v:04:y:2017:i:01:n:s2424786317500074
    DOI: 10.1142/S2424786317500074
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Alqaralleh, Huthaifa & Canepa, Alessandra, 2022. "The role of precious metals in portfolio diversification during the Covid19 pandemic: A wavelet-based quantile approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    2. Tweneboah, George & Alagidede, Paul, 2018. "Interdependence structure of precious metal prices: A multi-scale perspective," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 427-434.
    3. Nekhili, Ramzi & Sultan, Jahangir & Mensi, Walid, 2021. "Co-movements among precious metals and implications for portfolio management: A multivariate wavelet-based dynamic analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).

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