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Multiple Wavelet Coherency Analysis and Forecasting of Metal Prices

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  • Emre Kahraman
  • Gazanfer Unal

Abstract

The assessment of co-movement among metals is crucial to better understand the behaviors of the metal prices and the interactions with others that affect the changes in prices. In this study, both Wavelet Analysis and VARMA (Vector Autoregressive Moving Average) models are utilized. First, Multiple Wavelet Coherence (MWC), where Wavelet Analysis is needed, is utilized to determine dynamic correlation time interval and scales. VARMA is then used for forecasting which results in reduced errors. The daily prices of steel, aluminium, copper and zinc between 10.05.2010 and 29.05.2014 are analyzed via wavelet analysis to highlight the interactions. Results uncover interesting dynamics between mentioned metals in the time-frequency space. VARMA (1,1) model forecasting is carried out considering the daily prices between 14.11.2011 and 16.11.2012 where the interactions are quite high and prediction errors are found quite limited with respect to ARMA(1.1). It is shown that dynamic co-movement detection via four variables wavelet coherency analysis in the determination of VARMA time interval enables to improve forecasting power of ARMA by decreasing forecasting errors.

Suggested Citation

  • Emre Kahraman & Gazanfer Unal, 2016. "Multiple Wavelet Coherency Analysis and Forecasting of Metal Prices," Papers 1602.01960, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1602.01960
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    1. Mustafa Gülerce & Gazanfer Ünal, 2017. "Forecasting Of Oil And Agricultural Commodity Prices: Varma Versus Arma," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 12(03), pages 1-30, September.
    2. Singh, Sanjeet & Bansal, Pooja & Bhardwaj, Nav, 2022. "Correlation between geopolitical risk, economic policy uncertainty, and Bitcoin using partial and multiple wavelet coherence in P5 + 1 nations," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    3. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Nasreen, Samia & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2020. "Time-frequency causality and connectedness between international prices of energy, food, industry, agriculture and metals," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    4. Mustafa Gülerce & Gazanfer Ünal, 2018. "Electricity price forecasting using multiple wavelet coherence method: Comparison of ARMA versus VARMA," International Journal of Financial Engineering (IJFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 5(01), pages 1-20, March.
    5. Emrah Oral & Gazanfer Unal, 2017. "Co-movement of precious metals and forecasting using scale by scale wavelet transform," International Journal of Financial Engineering (IJFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 4(01), pages 1-21, March.
    6. Rémi Odry & Roman Mestre, 2021. "Monetary Policy and Business Cycle Synchronization in Europe," Working Papers hal-04159759, HAL.

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