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Imposing parsimony in cross-country growth regressions

  • Jarociński, Marek

The number of variables related to long-run economic growth is large compared with the number of countries. Bayesian model averaging is often used to impose parsimony in the cross-country growth regression. The underlying prior is that many of the considered variables need to be excluded from the model. This paper, instead, advocates priors that impose parsimony without excluding variables. The resulting models fit the data better and are more robust to revisions of income data. The positive relationship between measures of trade openness and growth is much stronger than found in the literature. JEL Classification: C20, C52, O40, O47

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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 1234.

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Date of creation: Aug 2010
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20101234
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  1. Gernot Doppelhofer & Ronald I. Miller & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 2000. "Determinants of Long-Term Growth: A Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates (BACE) Approach," NBER Working Papers 7750, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. repec:ulb:ulbeco:2013/6411 is not listed on IDEAS
  3. De Mol, Christine & Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2006. "Forecasting using a large number of predictors: Is Bayesian regression a valid alternative to principal components?," Working Paper Series 0700, European Central Bank.
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