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Citations for "Forecasting using a large number of predictors: is Bayesian regression a valid alternative to principal components?"

by De Mol, Christine & Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia

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  1. Miguel Belmonte & Gary Koop & Dimitris Korobilis, 2011. "Hierarchical Shrinkage in Time-Varying Parameter Models," Working Papers 1137, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
  2. Nikolaus Hautsch & Fuyu Yang, 2014. "Bayesian Stochastic Search for the Best Predictors: Nowcasting GDP Growth," University of East Anglia Applied and Financial Economics Working Paper Series 056, School of Economics, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK..
  3. Rangan Gupta, 2012. "Forecasting House Prices for the Four Census Regions and the Aggregate US Economy: The Role of a Data-Rich Environment," Working Papers 201214, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  4. Rangan Gupta & Mampho P. Modise & Josine Uwilingiye, 2011. "Out-of-Sample Equity Premium Predictability in South Africa: Evidence from a Large Number of Predictors," Working Papers 201122, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  5. Petre Caraiani, 2014. "Do money and financial variables help forecasting output in emerging European Economies?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(2), pages 743-763, March.
  6. Bloor, Chris & Matheson, Troy, 2011. "Real-time conditional forecasts with Bayesian VARs: An application to New Zealand," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 26-42, January.
  7. Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele & Primiceri, Giorgio E, 2012. "Prior Selection for Vector Autoregressions," CEPR Discussion Papers 8755, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Kaabia, Olfa & Abid, Ilyes & Guesmi, Khaled, 2013. "Does Bayesian shrinkage help to better reflect what happened during the subprime crisis?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 423-432.
  9. Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2008. "Explaining The Great Moderation: It Is Not The Shocks," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 6(2-3), pages 621-633, 04-05.
  10. Carriero, Andrea & Clark, Todd & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2013. "Real-Time Nowcasting with a Bayesian Mixed Frequency Model with Stochastic Volatility," CEPR Discussion Papers 9312, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  11. Dimitris Korobilis, 2011. "Hierarchical Shrinkage Priors for Dynamic Regressions with Many Predictors," Working Paper Series 21_11, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
  12. Massimiliano Marcellino & Christian Schumacher, 2008. "Factor-MIDAS for Now- and Forecasting with Ragged-Edge Data: A Model Comparison for German GDP1," Working Papers 333, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  13. A. Girardi & R. Golinelli & C. Pappalardo, 2014. "The Role of Indicator Selection in Nowcasting Euro Area GDP in Pseudo Real Time," Working Papers wp919, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
  14. A. Carriero & G. Kapetanios & M. Marcellino, 2008. "Forecasting Exchange Rates with a Large Bayesian VAR," Economics Working Papers ECO2008/33, European University Institute.
  15. Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele & Pill, Huw & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2011. "Non-standard monetary policy measures and monetary developments," Working Paper Series 1290, European Central Bank.
  16. Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele & Momferatou, Daphne & Onorante, Luca, 2014. "Short-term inflation projections: A Bayesian vector autoregressive approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 635-644.
  17. Michele Lenza & Huw Pill & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2010. "Monetary policy in exceptional times," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 25, pages 295-339, 04.
  18. Gianluca Cubadda & Barbara Guardabascio, 2010. "A Medium-N Approach to Macroeconomic Forecasting," CEIS Research Paper 176, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 09 Dec 2010.
  19. Haroon Mumtaz & Nitin Kumar, 2012. "An application of data-rich environment for policy analysis of the Indian economy," Joint Research Papers 2, Centre for Central Banking Studies, Bank of England.
  20. Rangan Gupta & Marius Jurgilas & Alain Kabundi & Stephen M. Miller, 2009. "Monetary Policy and Housing Sector Dynamics in a Large-Scale Bayesian Vector Autoregressive Model," Working Papers 200913, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  21. Berg, Tim Oliver, 2015. "Multivariate Forecasting with BVARs and DSGE Models," MPRA Paper 62405, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  22. Goodness C. Aye & Rangan Gupta, 2013. "Forecasting Real House Price of the U.S.: An Analysis Covering 1890 to 2012," Working Papers 201362, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  23. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Schumacher, Christian, 2007. "Factor-MIDAS for now- and forecasting with ragged-edge data: a model comparison for German GDP," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,34, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  24. Marta Banbura & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2010. "Large Bayesian vector auto regressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 71-92.
  25. Luigi Paciello, 2011. "Does Inflation Adjust Faster to Aggregate Technology Shocks than to Monetary Policy Shocks?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43(8), pages 1663-1684, December.
  26. Auer, Simone, 2014. "Monetary policy shocks and foreign investment income: evidence from a large Bayesian VAR," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 170, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  27. Alexander Chudik & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2014. "Theory and Practice of GVAR Modeling," CESifo Working Paper Series 4807, CESifo Group Munich.
  28. Kuzin, Vladimir N. & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Schumacher, Christian, 2009. "Pooling versus model selection for nowcasting with many predictors: an application to German GDP," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2009,03, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  29. Altavilla, Carlo & Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele, 2014. "The financial and macroeconomic effects of OMT announcements," Working Paper Series 1707, European Central Bank.
  30. Jana Eklund & George Kapetanios, 2008. "A Review of Forecasting Techniques for Large Data Sets," Working Papers 625, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  31. Carriero, Andrea & Kapetanios, George & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2010. "Forecasting Government Bond Yields with Large Bayesian VARs," CEPR Discussion Papers 7796, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  32. Chudik , A. & Pesaran, M.H., 2007. "Infinite Dimensional VARs and Factor Models," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0757, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  33. Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza & Huw Pill & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2012. "The ECB and the Interbank Market," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(564), pages F467-F486, November.
  34. Inske Pirschel & Maik Wolters, 2014. "Forecasting German Key Macroeconomic Variables Using Large Dataset Methods," Kiel Working Papers 1925, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  35. Canova, Fabio & Ciccarelli, Matteo, 2013. "Panel vector autoregressive models: a survey," Working Paper Series 1507, European Central Bank.
  36. Helmut Lütkepohl, 2014. "Structural Vector Autoregressive Analysis in a Data Rich Environment: A Survey," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1351, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  37. Andrea Carriero & George Kapetanios & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2009. "Forecasting Large Datasets with Bayesian Reduced Rank Multivariate Models," Economics Working Papers ECO2009/31, European University Institute.
  38. Giovannelli, Alessandro & Proietti, Tommaso, 2014. "On the Selection of Common Factors for Macroeconomic Forecasting," MPRA Paper 60673, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  39. Ching Wai (Jeremy) Chiu & Bjørn Eraker & Andrew T. Foerster & Tae Bong Kim & Hernán D. Seoane, 2011. "Estimating VAR's sampled at mixed or irregular spaced frequencies : a Bayesian approach," Research Working Paper RWP 11-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  40. Brodie, Joshua & Daubechies, Ingrid & De Mol, Christine & Giannone, Domenico, 2007. "Sparse and Stable Markowitz Portfolios," CEPR Discussion Papers 6474, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  41. Liebermann, Joelle, 2012. "Real-time forecasting in a data-rich environment," Research Technical Papers 07/RT/12, Central Bank of Ireland.
  42. Frank Schorfheide & Dongho Song, 2013. "Real-Time Forecasting with a Mixed-Frequency VAR," NBER Working Papers 19712, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  43. Alexander Chudik & Valerie Grossman & M. Hashem Pesaran, 2014. "A Multi-Country Approach to Forecasting Output Growth Using PMIs," CESifo Working Paper Series 5100, CESifo Group Munich.
  44. Peter Exterkate & Patrick J.F. Groenen & Christiaan Heij & Dick van Dijk, 2011. "Nonlinear Forecasting with Many Predictors using Kernel Ridge Regression," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-007/4, Tinbergen Institute.
  45. Fornaro, Paolo, 2015. "Forecasting U.S. Recessions with a Large Set of Predictors," MPRA Paper 62973, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  46. Eliana González, . "Forecasting With Many Predictors. An Empirical Comparison," Borradores de Economia 643, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  47. Chris Bloor & Troy Matheson, 2008. "Analysing shock transmission in a data-rich environment: A large BVAR for New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2008/09, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  48. Ricco, Giovanni & Ellahie, Atif, 2012. "Government Spending Reloaded: Fundamentalness and Heterogeneity in Fiscal SVARs," MPRA Paper 42105, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  49. Eickmeier, Sandra & Ng, Tim, 2009. "Forecasting national activity using lots of international predictors: an application to New Zealand," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2009,11, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  50. Gary Koop, 2013. "Using VARs and TVP-VARs with Many Macroeconomic Variables," Working Papers 1303, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
  51. Marek Rusnak, 2013. "Nowcasting Czech GDP in Real Time," Working Papers 2013/06, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  52. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2009. "Boosting diffusion indices," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(4), pages 607-629.
  53. Jan J. J. Groen & Richard Paap & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2009. "Real-Time Inflation Forecasting in a Changing World," Working Paper 2009/16, Norges Bank.
  54. Jennifer Castle & David Hendry, 2013. "Forecasting and Nowcasting Macroeconomic Variables: A Methodological Overview," Economics Series Working Papers 674, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  55. Lombardi, Marco J. & Osbat, Chiara & Schnatz, Bernd, 2010. "Global commodity cycles and linkages a FAVAR approach," Working Paper Series 1170, European Central Bank.
  56. Jan J. J. Groen & George Kapetanios, 2008. "Revisiting useful approaches to data-rich macroeconomic forecasting," Staff Reports 327, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  57. Martha Banbura & Domenico Giannone & Michèle Lenza, 2014. "Conditional Forecasts and Scenario Analysis with Vector Autoregressions for Large Cross-Sections," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2014-15, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  58. Peter Exterkate & Patrick J.F. Groenen & Christiaan Heij & Dick van Dijk, 2013. "Nonlinear Forecasting With Many Predictors Using Kernel Ridge Regression," CREATES Research Papers 2013-16, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  59. Bernoth, Kerstin & Pick, Andreas, 2011. "Forecasting the fragility of the banking and insurance sectors," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 807-818, April.
  60. Gupta, Rangan & Kabundi, Alain & Miller, Stephen M., 2011. "Forecasting the US real house price index: Structural and non-structural models with and without fundamentals," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 2013-2021, July.
  61. Marta Bańbura, 2008. "Large Bayesian VARs," 2008 Meeting Papers 334, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  62. Matteo Barigozzi & Christian T. Brownlees, 2013. "Nets: Network estimation for time series," Economics Working Papers 1391, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  63. Henzel, Steffen R. & Mayr, Johannes, 2013. "The mechanics of VAR forecast pooling—A DSGE model based Monte Carlo study," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 1-24.
  64. C. Marsilli, 2014. "Variable Selection in Predictive MIDAS Models," Working papers 520, Banque de France.
  65. Fady Barsoum, 2013. "The Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on a Panel of Stock Market Volatilities: A Factor-Augmented Bayesian VAR Approach," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2013-15, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
  66. Roberto Casarin & Daniel Felix Ahelegbey & Monica Billio, 2014. "Sparse Graphical Vector Autoregression: A Bayesian Approach," Working Papers 2014:29, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
  67. Dimitris P. Louzis, 2014. "Macroeconomic and credit forecasts in a small economy during crisis: A large Bayesian VAR approach," Working Papers 184, Bank of Greece.
  68. Deryugina , Elena & Ponomarenko , Alexey, 2014. "A large Bayesian vector autoregression model for Russia," BOFIT Discussion Papers 22/2014, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  69. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2012. "Generalized Shrinkage Methods for Forecasting Using Many Predictors," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(4), pages 481-493, June.
  70. Julieta Fuentes & Pilar Poncela & Julio Rodríguez, 2012. "Sparse partial least squares in time series for macroeconomic forecasting," Statistics and Econometrics Working Papers ws122216, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Estadística y Econometría.
  71. Lucrezia Reichlin, 2009. "Comment on "How Has the Euro Changed the Monetary Transmission Mechanism?"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2008, Volume 23, pages 127-139 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  72. Jiahan Li & Ilias Tsiakas & Wei Wang, 2014. "Predicting Exchange Rates Out of Sample: Can Economic Fundamentals Beat the Random Walk?," Working Paper Series 05_14, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
  73. repec:eui:euiwps:eco2010/17 is not listed on IDEAS
  74. Sydney C. Ludvigson & Serena Ng, 2009. "A Factor Analysis of Bond Risk Premia," NBER Working Papers 15188, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  75. Raffaella Giacomini & Barbara Rossi, 2014. "Forecasting in nonstationary environments: What works and what doesn't in reduced-form and structural models," Economics Working Papers 1476, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  76. David de Antonio Liedo & Elena Fernández Muñoz, 2010. "Nowcasting Spanish GDP growth in real time: "One and a half months earlier"," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 1037, Banco de Espa�a.
  77. Adina Popescu & Alina Carare, 2011. "Monetary Policy and Risk-Premium Shocks in Hungary; Results from a Large Bayesian VAR," IMF Working Papers 11/259, International Monetary Fund.
  78. Bai, Jushan & Ng, Serena, 2008. "Forecasting economic time series using targeted predictors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 304-317, October.
  79. Rachida Ouysse, 2011. "Comparison of Bayesian moving Average and Principal Component Forecast for Large Dimensional Factor Models," Discussion Papers 2012-03, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
  80. Giacomini, Raffaella & Ragusa, Giuseppe, 2011. "Incorporating theoretical restrictions into forecasting by projection methods," CEPR Discussion Papers 8604, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  81. Carriero, Andrea & Kapetanios, George & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2012. "Forecasting government bond yields with large Bayesian vector autoregressions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 2026-2047.
  82. Carlo Altavilla & Domenico Giannone & Michele Lenza, 2014. "The Financial and Macroeconomic Effects of the OMT Announcements," CSEF Working Papers 352, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
  83. Helmut Lütkepohl, 2012. "Fundamental Problems with Nonfundamental Shocks," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1230, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  84. Scharnagl, Michael & Schumacher, Christian, 2007. "Reconsidering the role of monetary indicators for euro area inflation from a Bayesian perspective using group inclusion probabilities," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,09, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  85. Mayr, Johannes, 2010. "Forecasting Macroeconomic Aggregates," Munich Dissertations in Economics 11140, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
  86. Robinson Durán & Evelyn Garrido & Carolina Godoy & Juan de Dios Tena, 2012. "Predicción de la inflación en México con modelos desagregados por componente," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 27(1), pages 133-167.
  87. Eliana González, 2011. "Forecasting With Many Predictors. An Empirical Comparison," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 007996, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  88. Peter Exterkate & Patrick J.F. Groenen & Christiaan Heij & Dick van Dijk, 2011. "Nonlinear Forecasting with Many Predictors using Kernel Ridge Regression," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-007/4, Tinbergen Institute.
  89. Jarociński, Marek, 2010. "Imposing parsimony in cross-country growth regressions," Working Paper Series 1234, European Central Bank.
  90. Stelios Bekiros & Alessia Paccagnini, 2013. "On the predictability of time-varying VAR and DSGE models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 635-664, August.
  91. Li, Jiahan & Chen, Weiye, 2014. "Forecasting macroeconomic time series: LASSO-based approaches and their forecast combinations with dynamic factor models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 996-1015.
  92. Ricco, Giovanni & Callegari, Giovanni & Cimadomo, Jacopo, 2014. "Signals from the Government: Policy Uncertainty and the Transmission of Fiscal Shocks," MPRA Paper 56136, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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