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Exchange Rates and the Current Account

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Cited by:

  1. Bashir, Usman & Zebende, Gilney Figueira & Yu, Yugang & Hussain, Muntazir & Ali, Ahmed & Abbas, Ghulam, 2019. "Differential market reactions to pre and post Brexit referendum," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 515(C), pages 151-158.
  2. Agnès Bénassy & Henri Sterdyniak, 1992. "La détermination des taux de change dans les modèles multinationaux : l'état de l'art," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 104(3), pages 39-71.
  3. Chkili, Walid & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2014. "Exchange rate movements and stock market returns in a regime-switching environment: Evidence for BRICS countries," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 46-56.
  4. van de Klundert, Theo C N J & van der Ploeg, Frederick, 1987. "Wage Rigidity and Capital Mobility in an Optimizing Model of a Small Open Economy," CEPR Discussion Papers 168, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Joseph E. Gagnon, 1996. "Net foreign assets and equilibrium exchange rates: panel evidence," International Finance Discussion Papers 574, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), revised 1996.
  6. Pekka Ahtiala, 1988. "A Note on Fiscal Policy Under Flexible Exchange Rates," Discussion Papers 797, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  7. Korhonen Marko, 2015. "The Relation between National Stock Prices and Effective Exchange Rates: Does It Affect Exchange Rate Exposure?," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 15(2), pages 241-256, July.
  8. Bashir, Usman & Yu, Yugang & Hussain, Muntazir & Zebende, Gilney F., 2016. "Do foreign exchange and equity markets co-move in Latin American region? Detrended cross-correlation approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 462(C), pages 889-897.
  9. Dale W. Henderson & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1981. "New foreign asset positions and stability in a world portfolio balance model," International Finance Discussion Papers 178, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), revised 1981.
  10. Salisu, Afees A., 2019. "United we stand, divided we fall: A PANICCA test evidence for stock exchanges in OECD," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 343-347.
  11. Aizenman, Joshua, 1985. "Tariff liberalization policy and financial restrictions," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(3-4), pages 241-255, November.
  12. Kassouri YACOUBA & Halil ALTINTAS, 2019. "The Asymmetric Impact of Macroeconomic Shocks on Stock Returns in Turkey: A Nonlinear ARDL Approach," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 98-116, June.
  13. Cavallo, Michele & Ghironi, Fabio, 2002. "Net foreign assets and the exchange rate: Redux revived," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(5), pages 1057-1097, July.
  14. Habib Ahmed & C. Paul Hallwood & Stephen M. Miller, 2006. "The Exchange Rate-Investment Nexus and Exchange Rate Instability: Another Reason for 'Fear of Floating'," Working papers 2006-15, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics, revised Jan 2009.
  15. Murphy, C W, 1988. "An Overview of the Murphy Model," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(0), pages 175-199, Supplemen.
  16. Christophe RAULT & Guglielmo Maria CAPORALE & Thouraya HADJ AMOR, 2009. "International Financial Integration And Real Exchange Rate Long-Run Dynamics In Emerging Countries," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp970, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
  17. Argha , Leila & Mowlaei , Mohammad & Khezri , Mohsen & Shahabadi , Abolfazl, 2017. "Impact of the Selected Domestic and Foreign Markets Returns on Stock Price in Iran," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 12(4), pages 481-489, October.
  18. Eguren Martin, Fernando, 2016. "Exchange rate regimes and current account adjustment: An empirical investigation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 69-93.
  19. Pekka Ahtiala, 1998. "Fiscal Policy under Flexible Exchange Rates: When is Expansion Contractionary?," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(2), pages 17-34.
  20. Afshan, Sahar & Sharif, Arshian & Loganathan, Nanthakumar & Jammazi, Rania, 2018. "Time–frequency causality between stock prices and exchange rates: Further evidences from cointegration and wavelet analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 495(C), pages 225-244.
  21. Morales-Zumaquero, Amalia & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2018. "Volatility spillovers between foreign exchange and stock markets in industrialized countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 121-136.
  22. van der Ploeg, F., 1989. "Monetary disinflation, fiscal expansion and the current account in an interdependent world," Discussion Paper 1989-18, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  23. Blaise Gnimasoun & Valérie Mignon, 2013. "Current-account adjustments and exchange-rate misalignments," EconomiX Working Papers 2013-31, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
  24. Nieh, Chien-Chung & Lee, Cheng-Few, 2001. "Dynamic relationship between stock prices and exchange rates for G-7 countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 477-490.
  25. Walid, Chkili & Chaker, Aloui & Masood, Omar & Fry, John, 2011. "Stock market volatility and exchange rates in emerging countries: A Markov-state switching approach," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 272-292, September.
  26. Davis, George K. & Miller, Norman C., 1996. "Exchange rate mean reversion from real shocks within an intertemporal equilibrium model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 947-967, December.
  27. Phylaktis, Kate & Ravazzolo, Fabiola, 2004. "Currency risk in emerging equity markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 317-339, September.
  28. Chuku Chuku & Atan Johnson & Obioesio Felix & Onye Kenneth, 2017. "Working Paper 287 - Current Account Adjustments and Integration in West Africa," Working Paper Series 2407, African Development Bank.
  29. Fengming Qin & Junru Zhang & Zhaoyong Zhang, 2018. "RMB Exchange Rates and Volatility Spillover across Financial Markets in China and Japan," Risks, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 6(4), pages 1-26, October.
  30. Nicolaas Groenewold & James E.H. Paterson, 2013. "Stock Prices and Exchange Rates in Australia: Are Commodity Prices the Missing Link?," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(3-4), pages 159-170, December.
  31. Frenkel, Jacob A. & Rodriguez, Carlos A., 1980. "Exchange Rate Dynamics and Overshooting Hypothesis," Foerder Institute for Economic Research Working Papers 275323, Tel-Aviv University > Foerder Institute for Economic Research.
  32. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Hunter, John & Menla Ali, Faek, 2014. "On the linkages between stock prices and exchange rates: Evidence from the banking crisis of 2007–2010," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 87-103.
  33. Eaton, Jonathan & Turnovsky, Stephen J, 1983. "Covered Interest Parity, Uncovered Interest Parity and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 93(371), pages 555-575, September.
  34. Robert P. Flood, 1981. "Explanations of Exchange Rate Volatility and Other Empirical Regularities in Some Popular Models of the Foreign Exchange Market," NBER Working Papers 0625, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  35. Aviral Tiwari & Niyati Bhanja & Arif Dar & Faridul Islam, 2015. "Time–frequency relationship between share prices and exchange rates in India: Evidence from continuous wavelets," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 699-714, March.
  36. Ruipeng Liu & Riza Demirer & Rangan Gupta & Mark E. Wohar, 2017. "Do Bivariate Multifractal Models Improve Volatility Forecasting in Financial Time Series? An Application to Foreign Exchange and Stock Markets," Working Papers 201728, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  37. Diamandis, Panayiotis F. & Drakos, Anastassios A., 2011. "Financial liberalization, exchange rates and stock prices: Exogenous shocks in four Latin America countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 381-394, May.
  38. Ülkü, Numan & Demirci, Ebru, 2012. "Joint dynamics of foreign exchange and stock markets in emerging Europe," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 55-86.
  39. Tai, Chu-Sheng, 2007. "Market integration and contagion: Evidence from Asian emerging stock and foreign exchange markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 264-283, December.
  40. Ahmed, Jameel & Straetmans, Stefan, 2015. "Predicting exchange rate cycles utilizing risk factors," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 112-130.
  41. Salisu, Afees A. & Ndako, Umar B., 2018. "Modelling stock price–exchange rate nexus in OECD countries: A new perspective," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 105-123.
  42. Rudiger Dornbusch & Daniel Valente Dantas & Clarice Pechman & Roberto de Rezende Rocha & Demetrio Simoes, 1980. "A Model of the Black Market for Dollars," NBER Working Papers 0590, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  43. Timothy J Condon, 1986. "Flujo de Comercio y la Política del Tipo de Cambio Reptante: Un Modelo de Predicción Perfecta de Largo Plazo," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 23(68), pages 25-48.
  44. Thai-Ha LE & Youngho CHANG, 2011. "The Impact of Oil Price Fluctuations on Stock Markets in Developed and Emerging Economies," Economic Growth Centre Working Paper Series 1103, Nanyang Technological University, School of Social Sciences, Economic Growth Centre.
  45. Fullerton, Th. & Lopez, J.J., 2005. "Error Correction Exchange Rate Modeling for Mexico: 1980 – 2001," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 2(3), pages 17-30.
  46. Obstfeld, Maurice & Stockman, Alan C., 1985. "Exchange-rate dynamics," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.),Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 18, pages 917-977, Elsevier.
  47. Works, Richard Floyd, 2016. "Econometric modeling of exchange rate determinants by market classification: An empirical analysis of Japan and South Korea using the sticky-price monetary theory," MPRA Paper 76382, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  48. Dibooglu, Selahattin, 1993. "Multiple cointegration and structural models: applications to exchange rate determination," ISU General Staff Papers 1993010108000011419, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  49. Grammatikos, Theoharry & Vermeulen, Robert, 2012. "Transmission of the financial and sovereign debt crises to the EMU: Stock prices, CDS spreads and exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 517-533.
  50. Habib Ahmed & C. Paul Hallwood & Stephen M. Miller, 1997. "Monetary Policy in a Portfolio Balance Model with Endogenous Physical Capital," Working papers 1997-08, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
  51. Ahtiala, Pekka, 1998. "Monetary policy under flexible exchange rates: When is expansion contractionary?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 361-378.
  52. ERER, Deniz & ERER, Elif & GÜLEÇ, Tuna Can, 2016. "Fractional Cointegration Analysis Of Stock Market And Exchange Rates: The Case Of Turkey," Studii Financiare (Financial Studies), Centre of Financial and Monetary Research "Victor Slavescu", vol. 20(3), pages 80-94.
  53. Andersson, Andreas & Österholm, Pär, 2001. "The Impact of Demography on the Real Exchange Rate," Working Paper Series 2001:11, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
  54. David W.R. Gruen & Jenny Wilkinson, 1991. "Australia’s Real Exchange Rate – Is it Explained by the Terms of Trade or by Real Interest Differentials?," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9108, Reserve Bank of Australia.
  55. Gong, Pu & Dai, Jun, 2017. "Monetary policy, exchange rate fluctuation, and herding behavior in the stock market," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 34-43.
  56. Thomas Fullerton & Miwa Hattori & Cuauhtémoc Calderón, 2001. "Error correction exchange rate modeling: Evidence for Mexico," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 25(3), pages 358-368, September.
  57. Yang, Sheng-Ping, 2017. "Exchange rate dynamics and stock prices in small open economies: Evidence from Asia-Pacific countries," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 46(PB), pages 337-354.
  58. Richard H. Clarida, 1984. "Current Account, Exchange Rate, and Monetary Dynamics in a Stochastic Equilibrium Model," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 694, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  59. Alsakka, Rasha & ap Gwilym, Owain, 2012. "Foreign exchange market reactions to sovereign credit news," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 845-864.
  60. MacDonald, Ronald, 1998. "What determines real exchange rates?: The long and the short of it," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 117-153, June.
  61. van der Ploeg, F, 1990. "Capital Accumulation, Inflation and Long-run Conflict in International Objectives," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 42(3), pages 501-525, July.
  62. Mostafa Ali & Gang Sun, 2017. "Dynamic Relations between Stock Price and Exchange Rate: Evidence from South Asia," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(3), pages 331-341.
  63. Alaganar, V.T. & Bhar, Ramaprasad, 2007. "Empirical properties of currency risk in country index portfolios," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 159-174, March.
  64. Arshian Sharif, Sahar Afshan, 2016. "Tourism Development and Real Effective Exchange Rate Revisited by Wavelet based Analysis: Evidence from France," Journal of Finance and Economics Research, Geist Science, Iqra University, Faculty of Business Administration, vol. 1(2), pages 101-118, October.
  65. I, Sahadudheen I, 2013. "Volatility spillovers of rupee-dollar and rupee-euro exchange rates on Indian stock prices: evidence from GARCH model," MPRA Paper 65746, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2013.
  66. Zervoyianni, Athina, 1996. "Product-market openness and dynamic responses to exogenous shocks and policies in a two-country, two-goods model," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 269-290.
  67. Bolbol, Ali A., 1999. "Seigniorage, Dollarization and Public Debt: The Lebanese Civil War and Recovery Experience, 1982-97," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 27(10), pages 1861-1873, October.
  68. Chkili, Walid & Aloui, Chaker & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2012. "Asymmetric effects and long memory in dynamic volatility relationships between stock returns and exchange rates," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 738-757.
  69. Buiter, Willem H, 1984. "Saddlepoint Problems in Continuous Time Rational Expectations Models: A General Method and Some Macroeconomic Examples," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(3), pages 665-680, May.
  70. Daniel Stavarek, 2004. "Linkages between Stock Prices and Exchange Rates in the EU and the United States," Finance 0406006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  71. Juan José Echavarría Soto & Enrique López Enciso & Martha Misas Arango, 2008. "La tasa de cambio real de equilibrio en Colombia y su desalineamiento: estimación a través de un modelo SVEC," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 26(57), pages 282-319, December.
  72. Irena Vodenska & Alexander P. Becker & Di Zhou & Dror Y. Kenett & H. Eugene Stanley & Shlomo Havlin, 2016. "Community Analysis of Global Financial Markets," Risks, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 4(2), pages 1-15, May.
  73. William H. Branson & Willem H. Buiter, 1982. "Monetary and Fiscal Policy with Flexible Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 0901, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  74. Paul S. L. Yip, 2016. "China’S Exchange Rate System Reform: Two Potential Mistakes And The Recommended Long-Term System," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 61(02), pages 1-40, June.
  75. Joscha Beckmann & Robert Czudaj, 2017. "Effective Exchange Rates, Current Accounts and Global Imbalances," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(3), pages 500-533, August.
  76. Reboredo, Juan C. & Rivera-Castro, Miguel A. & Ugolini, Andrea, 2016. "Downside and upside risk spillovers between exchange rates and stock prices," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 76-96.
  77. Adewumi Otonne & Terzungwe Usar & Adebayo Adereni, 2018. "Real Exchange Returns and Real Stock Price Returns in Nigeria: An Econometrics Analysis of the Direction of Causality," International Journal of Economics and Financial Research, Academic Research Publishing Group, vol. 4(5), pages 131-144, 05-2018.
  78. Wee-Yeap Lau & You-How Go, 2018. "Dynamic Causality Between Stock Return and Exchange Rate: Is Stock-Oriented Hypothesis More Relevant in Malaysia?," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 25(2), pages 137-157, June.
  79. Maurice Larrain, 2003. "Central bank intervention, the current account, and exchange rates," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 9(3), pages 196-205, August.
  80. Lin, Jeng-Bau & Fu, Shan-Heng, 2016. "Investigating the dynamic relationships between equity markets and currency markets," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 69(6), pages 2193-2198.
  81. Enrique Alberola-Ila & Ángel Estrada & Francesca Viani, 2018. "Global imbalances from a stock perspective. The asymmetry between creditors and debtors," BIS Working Papers 707, Bank for International Settlements.
  82. Paul Alagidede & Theodore Panagiotidis & Xu Zhang, 2011. "Causal relationship between stock prices and exchange rates," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(1), pages 67-86.
  83. Xiyong Dong & Seong‐Min Yoon, 2018. "Structural breaks, dynamic correlations, and hedge and safe havens for stock and foreign exchange markets in Greater China," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(10), pages 2783-2803, October.
  84. Joshua Odutola Omokehinde & Matthew Adeolu Abata & Stephen Oseko Migiro, 2017. "Foreign Exchange News Announcements and the Volatility of Stock Returns in Nigeria," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 67(3), pages 3-17, july-Sept.
  85. Effiong, Ekpeno L., 2016. "Nonlinear Dependence between Stock Prices and Exchange Rate in Nigeria," MPRA Paper 74336, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  86. Gelman, Maria & Jochem, Axel & Reitz, Stefan & Taylor, Mark P., 2015. "Real financial market exchange rates and capital flows," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 50-69.
  87. Ahmed S. Alimi & Oladotun D. Olaniran, 2019. "Monetary Policy and the Stock Price - Exchange Rate Nexus: New Insights from Influential African Economies," Asian Development Policy Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 7(2), pages 66-79, June.
  88. Francesco Giavazzi & Charles Wyplosz, 1984. "The Real Exchange Rate, the Current Account, and the Speed of Adjustment," NBER Chapters, in: Exchange Rate Theory and Practice, pages 335-356, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  89. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Cunado, Juncal & Gupta, Rangan & Wohar, Mark E., 2018. "Volatility spillovers across global asset classes: Evidence from time and frequency domains," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 194-202.
  90. Montes, Gabriel Caldas & Tiberto, Bruno Pires, 2012. "Macroeconomic environment, country risk and stock market performance: Evidence for Brazil," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1666-1678.
  91. Lesotho, O. K. & Motlaleng, G. R. & Ntsosa, M. M., 2016. "Stock Market Returns and Exchange Rates in Botswana," African Journal of Economic Review, African Journal of Economic Review, vol. 4(2), July.
  92. Phylaktis, Kate & Ravazzolo, Fabiola, 2005. "Stock prices and exchange rate dynamics," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(7), pages 1031-1053, November.
  93. Sin-Yu Ho & Bernard Njindan Iyke, 2017. "Determinants of stock market development: a review of the literature," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 34(1), pages 143-164, March.
  94. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Ying Sophie Huang & Bo Tang, 2016. "Does the Yuan's Overseas Expansion Increase the Currency Exposure of Chinese Financial Firms?," Working Papers 2016006, The University of Sheffield, Department of Economics.
  95. Mohamed Ariff & Alireza Zarei, 2018. "One Approach To Resolve The Exchange Rate Puzzle: Results Using Data From The United Kingdom And The United States," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 63(05), pages 1367-1384, December.
  96. Andriansyah, Andriansyah & Messinis, George, 2019. "Stock Prices, Exchange Rates and Portfolio Equity Flows: A Toda-Yamamoto Panel Causality Test," MPRA Paper 97992, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  97. Hossein Askari & Noureddine Krichene & Abbas Mirakhor, 2014. "On the Stability of an Islamic Financial System," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 67(269), pages 131-167.
  98. Abouwafia, Hashem E. & Chambers, Marcus J., 2015. "Monetary policy, exchange rates and stock prices in the Middle East region," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 14-28.
  99. Yousafzai, Essa & Masih, Mansur, 2017. "Does shariah stock index lead or lag the exchange rate and macroeconomic variables? evidence from Japan based on ARDL," MPRA Paper 86373, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  100. Swaray, Raymond & Salisu, Afees A., 2018. "A firm-level analysis of the upstream-downstream dichotomy in the oil-stock nexus," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 199-218.
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  102. Sin-Yu Ho & N.M. Odhiambo, 2018. "Analysing the macroeconomic drivers of stock market development in the Philippines," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 1451265-145, January.
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  124. Saman, Corina, 2014. "Testing for nonlinearity of the relationship between stock prices and exchange rate in Romania," Working Papers of Institute for Economic Forecasting 141110, Institute for Economic Forecasting.
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