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Carry trade strategies based on option-implied information: Evidence from a cross-section of funding currencies

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  • Chen, Shu-Hsiu

Abstract

We document carry trade returns based on the moments extracted from options on the underlying currencies. We establish three important results. First, a currency pair is predicted to have greater excess returns if option-implied returns are more volatile, are more left-skewed, and have fatter tails than the returns of other currency pairs. Second, strategies based on option-implied information improve on benchmark strategies based on realized market returns and macroeconomic data. Third, if the option-implied returns of a currency pair are more left-skewed than in the past, anti-carry trades rather than carry trades perform better.

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  • Chen, Shu-Hsiu, 2017. "Carry trade strategies based on option-implied information: Evidence from a cross-section of funding currencies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 1-20.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:78:y:2017:i:c:p:1-20
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2017.07.020
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    Cited by:

    1. Rongju Zhang & Mark Aarons & Gregoire Loeper, 2019. "Optimal FX Hedge Tenor with Liquidity Risk," Papers 1903.06346, arXiv.org.
    2. Hsu, Po-Hsuan & Taylor, Mark P. & Wang, Zigan & Li, Yan, 2024. "The out-of-sample performance of carry trades," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    3. Gueorgui S. Konstantinov & Frank J. Fabozzi, 2022. "The Geometry of the World of Currency Volatilities," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 60(1), pages 125-145, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Carry trade; Currency options; Option-implied moments; Funding currencies; Carry trade unwinding;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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