IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cwl/cwldpp/694.html

Current Account, Exchange Rate, and Monetary Dynamics in a Stochastic Equilibrium Model

Author

Listed:
  • Richard H. Clarida

Abstract

We construct a simple stochastic open-economy macro-economic model from the decision rules of rational optimizing agents, solving explicitly for the relationship between the model's deep parameters, and the variance-covariance matrix of equilibrium returns on domestic and foreign assets. We use the model to study the dynamic relationship between exchange rate changes and current account flows in response to domestic monetary shocks, to establish the conditions under which exchange rate depreciations accompany current account deficits, and to investigate the link between time preference, risk aversion, and the dynamic exchange rate and current account response to monetary disturbances. The model generates current account time series which exhibit persistent deviations from balance, even for the special case in which domestic and foreign shocks are purely transitory.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard H. Clarida, 1984. "Current Account, Exchange Rate, and Monetary Dynamics in a Stochastic Equilibrium Model," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 694, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    • Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:694
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://cowles.yale.edu/sites/default/files/files/pub/d06/d0694.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:bla:scandj:v:78:y:1976:i:2:p:280-304 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Anderson, Ronald W & Danthine, Jean-Pierre, 1981. "Cross Hedging," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(6), pages 1182-1196, December.
    3. Rodriguez, Carlos Alfredo, 1980. "The Role of Trade Flows in Exchange Rate Determination: A Rational Expectations Approach," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(6), pages 1148-1158, December.
    4. Obstfeld, Maurice, 1981. "Macroeconomic Policy, Exchange-Rate Dynamics, and Optimal Asset Accumulation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(6), pages 1142-1161, December.
    5. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1980. "Methods and Problems in Business Cycle Theory," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 12(4), pages 696-715, November.
    6. Mussa, Michael, 1982. "A Model of Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(1), pages 74-104, February.
    7. Dornbusch, Rudiger & Fischer, Stanley, 1980. "Exchange Rates and the Current Account," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(5), pages 960-971, December.
    8. William H. Branson, 1981. "Macroeconomic Determinants of Real Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 0801, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. McCafferty, Stephen & Driskill, Robert, 1980. "Problems of Existence and Uniqueness in Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1313-1317, July.
    10. Jeffrey D. Sachs, 1981. "The Current Account in the Eacroeconomic Adjustment Process," NBER Working Papers 0796, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Helpman, Elhanan, 1981. "An Exploration in the Theory of Exchange-Rate Regimes," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(5), pages 865-890, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Frenkel, Jacob A. & Mussa, Michael L., 1985. "Asset markets, exchange rates and the balance of payments," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 14, pages 679-747, Elsevier.
    2. Alan C. Stockman, 1985. "Effects of Inflation on the Pattern of International Trade," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 18(3), pages 587-601, August.
    3. Obstfeld, Maurice & Stockman, Alan C., 1985. "Exchange-rate dynamics," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 18, pages 917-977, Elsevier.
    4. Oscar Bajo-Rubio & Simón Sosvilla Rivero, 1993. "Teorías del tipo de cambio: una panorámica," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 9307, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
    5. Blaise Gnimassoun & Valérie Mignon, 2013. "Current-account adjustments and exchange-rate misalignments," Working Papers hal-04141182, HAL.
    6. Michael L. Mussa, 1986. "The Effects of Commercial, Fiscal, Monetary, and Exchange Rate Policies on the Real Exchange Rate," NBER Chapters, in: Economic Adjustment and Exchange Rates in Developing Countries, pages 43-88, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Ed Westerhout, 1998. "The Attractiveness of the EMU Exchange Rate Stabilization Program," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 25(3), pages 309-329, January.
    8. Jordi Galí, 2017. "Uncovered interest parity, forward guidance and the exchange rate," Economics Working Papers 1600, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Feb 2020.
    9. Bashir, Usman & Zebende, Gilney Figueira & Yu, Yugang & Hussain, Muntazir & Ali, Ahmed & Abbas, Ghulam, 2019. "Differential market reactions to pre and post Brexit referendum," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 515(C), pages 151-158.
    10. Rodolfo Cermeño & María Eugenia Sanin, 2015. "Are Flexible Exchange Rate Regimes more Volatile? Panel GARCH Evidence for the G7 and Latin America," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(2), pages 297-308, May.
    11. Bashir, Usman & Yu, Yugang & Hussain, Muntazir & Zebende, Gilney F., 2016. "Do foreign exchange and equity markets co-move in Latin American region? Detrended cross-correlation approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 462(C), pages 889-897.
    12. Muhammad Aftab & Rubi Ahmad & Izlin Ismail & Kate Phylaktis, 2021. "Economic integration and the currency and equity markets nexus," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(4), pages 5278-5301, October.
    13. Greenwood, Jeremy & Williamson, Stephen D., 1989. "International financial intermediation and aggregate fluctuations under alternative exchange rate regimes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 401-431, May.
    14. Abbass, Kashif & Sharif, Arshian & Song, Huaming & Ali, Malik Tayyab & Khan, Farina & Amin, Nabila, 2022. "Do geopolitical oil price risk, global macroeconomic fundamentals relate Islamic and conventional stock market? Empirical evidence from QARDL approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    15. Aftab, Muhammad & Ahmad, Rubi & Ismail, Izlin, 2018. "Examining the uncovered equity parity in the emerging financial markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 233-242.
    16. Charles Engel, 1987. "The Real Effects of Foreign Inflation in the Presence of Currency Substitution," NBER Working Papers 2140, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Stefan Boeters, 2009. "Optimal tax progressivity in unionised labour markets; what are the driving forces?," CPB Discussion Paper 129.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    18. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:28:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Habib Ahmed & C. Paul Hallwood & Stephen M. Miller, 2006. "The Exchange Rate-Investment Nexus and Exchange Rate Instability: Another Reason for 'Fear of Floating'," Working papers 2006-15, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics, revised Jan 2009.
    20. Wang, Baotai & Klein, Erwin & Rao, U. L. Gouranga, 1995. "Inflation and stabilization in Argentina," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 391-413, October.
    21. Henk Kranendonk & Johan Verbruggen, 2005. "How to determine the contributions of domestic demand and exports to economic growth?," CPB Memorandum 129.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:694. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Brittany Ladd (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cowleus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.