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Effects of Inflation on the Pattern of International Trade

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  • Alan C. Stockman

Abstract

This paper examines the relationship between inflation, exchange rates, and the pattern of international trade and payments in a small economy with utility-maximizing agents and a transactions demand for money. Fully anticipated inflation has real effects in the model through its role as a tax on money and thereby on monetary transactions. An increase in the rate of monetary expansion generally reduces the value of domestic output and alters the composition of domestic production. The result is a change in the pattern of international comparative advantage and trade flows. The initial depreciation of the exchange rate following an increase in the rate of monetary expansion is accompanied by a trade surplus and capital outflow, while the subsequent depreciation is accompanied by a trade deficit.

Suggested Citation

  • Alan C. Stockman, 1981. "Effects of Inflation on the Pattern of International Trade," NBER Working Papers 0713, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:0713
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Laurence Weiss, 1980. "A Model of International Trade and Finance," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 95(2), pages 277-292.
    2. Stockman, Alan C, 1980. "A Theory of Exchange Rate Determination," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(4), pages 673-698, August.
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    7. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-1176, December.
    8. Laurence Weiss, 1978. "A Model of International Trade and Finance," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 499, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    9. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1980. "Equilibrium in a Pure Currency Economy," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 18(2), pages 203-220, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Zehri, Chokri, 2022. "Asymmetric impact of capital controls on international trade," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 25(C).
    2. Holman, Jill A. & Rioja, Felix K., 2001. "International transmission of anticipated inflation under alternative exchange-rate regimes," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 497-519, August.
    3. Wong, Kin-Ming & Chong, Terence Tai-Leung, 2016. "Does monetary policy matter for trade?," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 107-125.
    4. Greenwood, Jeremy & Williamson, Stephen D., 1989. "International financial intermediation and aggregate fluctuations under alternative exchange rate regimes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 401-431, May.
    5. Lahiri, Amartya, 2001. "Exchange rate based stabilizations under real frictions: The role of endogenous labor supply," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(8), pages 1157-1177, August.
    6. Mr. Benedikt Braumann, 2001. "High Inflation and Real Wages," IMF Working Papers 2001/050, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Jorge E. Roldós, 1995. "Supply-Side Effects of Disinflation Programs," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(1), pages 158-183, March.
    8. Piergiorgio Ricci, 2020. "How economic freedom reflects on the Bitcoin transaction network," Economia e Politica Industriale: Journal of Industrial and Business Economics, Springer;Associazione Amici di Economia e Politica Industriale, vol. 47(1), pages 133-161, March.
    9. Ambar Galih & Sugiharso Safuan, 2017. "On Nonlinear Relationship between Inflation and Economic Growth: A Study of ASEAN-5 Countries Period 2000–2016," Economics and Finance in Indonesia, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Indonesia, vol. 63, pages 1-12, June.
    10. Muhammad Ali Nasir & Mary Leung, 2021. "US trade deficit, a reality check: New evidence incorporating asymmetric and non‐linear effects of exchange rate dynamics," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(3), pages 818-836, March.
    11. Subhani, Muhammad Imtiaz, 2009. "Bilateral trade: a study on SAARC countries," MPRA Paper 36158, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Theodore Palivos & Nikos Tsakiris, 2011. "Trade and Tax Reforms in a Cash‐in‐Advance Economy," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 77(4), pages 1014-1032, April.
    13. Md. Nur Alam Siddik & Sajal Kabiraj & Md. Emran Hosen & Md. Firoze Miah, 2021. "Blockchain Technology and Facilitation of International Trade: An Empirical Analysis," FIIB Business Review, , vol. 10(3), pages 232-241, September.
    14. Nadine McCloud & Ajornie Taylor, 2022. "Does inflation targeting matter for international trade? A synthetic control analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(5), pages 2427-2478, November.

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