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Covered Interest Parity, Uncovered Interest Parity and Exchange Rate Dynamics

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  • Eaton, Jonathan
  • Turnovsky, Stephen J

Abstract

A number of macroeconomic models of open economies under flexible exchange rate assume a strong version of perfect capital mobility which implies that currency speculation commands no risk premium. If this assumption is dropped a number of important results no longer obtain. First, the exchange rate and interest rate cannot be in steady state unless both the government deficit and current account equal zero, not simply their sum, as would otherwise be the case. Second, even in steady state the domestic interest rate can deviate from the foreign interest rate by an amount which de ends upon relative domestic asset supplies. Finally, introducing risk aversion on the part of speculators can reduce the response on impact of the exchange rate to changes in domestic asset supplies. In this sense rational speculators, if they are less risk averse than other agents, can destabilize exchange markets.
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  • Eaton, Jonathan & Turnovsky, Stephen J, 1983. "Covered Interest Parity, Uncovered Interest Parity and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 93(371), pages 555-575, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecj:econjl:v:93:y:1983:i:371:p:555-75
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Wilson, Charles A, 1979. "Anticipated Shocks and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(3), pages 639-647, June.
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    5. Willem H. Buiter & Marcus Miller, 1991. "Real Exchange Rate Overshooting and the Output Cost of Bringing Down Inflation," NBER Chapters,in: International Volatility and Economic Growth: The First Ten Years of The International Seminar on Macroeconomics, pages 239-277 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    7. Frenkel, Jacob A & Levich, Richard M, 1975. "Covered Interest Arbitrage: Unexploited Profits?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(2), pages 325-338, April.
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    9. James Tobin & Willem H. Buiter, 1974. "Long Run Effects of Fiscal and Monetary Policy on Aggregate Demand," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 384, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
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    Cited by:

    1. Diego Alejandro Martínez Cruz & José Fernando Moreno Gutiérrez & Juan Sebastián Rojas Moreno, 2015. "Evolución de la relación entre bonos locales y externos del gobierno colombiano frente a choques de riesgo," Borradores de Economia 919, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    2. Turnovsky, Stephen J., 1985. "Domestic and foreign disturbances in an optimizing model of exchange-rate determination," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 151-171, March.
    3. Peter G. Szilagyi & Jonathan A. Batten, 2006. "Arbitrage, Covered Interest Parity and Long-Term Dependence between the US Dollar and the Yen," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp128, IIIS.
    4. Faust, Jon & Rogers, John H., 2003. "Monetary policy's role in exchange rate behavior," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(7), pages 1403-1424, October.
    5. Papell, David H, 1986. "Exchange Rate and Current Account Dynamics under Rational Expectations: An Econometric Analysis," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 27(3), pages 583-600, October.
    6. Sergey Narkevich & Pavel Trunin, 2012. "Reserve Currencies: Factors of Evolution and their Role in the World Economy," Research Paper Series, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 162P.
    7. Zervoyianni, Athina, 1996. "Product-market openness and dynamic responses to exogenous shocks and policies in a two-country, two-goods model," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 269-290.
    8. Aristomène A. Varoudakis, 1990. "Dynamique du taux de change et substitution des actifs financiers dans un modèle avec un marché efficient d'actions," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 41(1), pages 95-118.
    9. Wolfgang Maennig & Warren Tease, 1987. "Covered interest parity in non-dollar euromarkets," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 123(4), pages 606-617, December.
    10. Jacob A. Frenkel & Assaf Razin, 1985. "A Two-Country Model of Macroeconomic Policy Interaction," NBER Chapters,in: International Economic Policy Coordination, pages 37-83 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Otavio De Medeiros, 2005. "Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics in Brazil," Finance 0503019, EconWPA.

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