IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecofin/v24y2013icp63-73.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Tariff-tax reform and exchange rate dynamics in a monetary economy

Author

Listed:
  • Chao, Chi-Chur
  • Hu, Shih-Wen
  • Lai, Ching-Chong
  • Tai, Meng-Yi
  • Wang, Vey

Abstract

Using a dynamic monetary model, this paper analyzes the short- and long-run impacts of a tariff-tax reform on the economy, with attention being paid to short-run fluctuations in exchange rates. When a policy reform is announced and if the public believe that it will decrease excess demand, the domestic currency depreciates now to reflect its future depreciation. On the contrary, the domestic currency immediately appreciates if the public believe that it will increase excess demand. However, if there is a relatively small increase in excess demand, the public may mis-react in the exchange rate market by observing currency depreciation first and then appreciation toward the steady-state rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Chao, Chi-Chur & Hu, Shih-Wen & Lai, Ching-Chong & Tai, Meng-Yi & Wang, Vey, 2013. "Tariff-tax reform and exchange rate dynamics in a monetary economy," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 63-73.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:24:y:2013:i:c:p:63-73
    DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2012.07.004
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1062940812000733
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.najef.2012.07.004?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wilson, Charles A, 1979. "Anticipated Shocks and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(3), pages 639-647, June.
    2. Michael B. Devereux, 1997. "Real Exchange Rates and Macroeconomics: Evidence and Theory," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 30(4), pages 773-808, November.
    3. Papell, David H., 1988. "Expectations and exchange rate dynamics after a decade of floating," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(3-4), pages 303-317, November.
    4. Robert P. Flood & Mark P. Taylor, 1996. "Exchange Rate Economics: What's Wrong with the Conventional Macro Approach?," NBER Chapters, in: The Microstructure of Foreign Exchange Markets, pages 261-302, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. David Backus, 1984. "Empirical Models of the Exchange Rate: Separating the Wheat from the Chaff," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 17(4), pages 824-846, November.
    6. Michael, Michael S. & Hatzipanayotou, Panos & Miller, Stephen M., 1993. "Integrated reforms of tariffs and consumption taxes," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 417-428, October.
    7. Ahtiala, Pekka, 1998. "Monetary policy under flexible exchange rates: When is expansion contractionary?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 361-378.
    8. Driskill, Robert A, 1981. "Exchange-Rate Dynamics: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(2), pages 357-371, April.
    9. Stephen J. Turnovsky, 2000. "Methods of Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262201232, December.
    10. Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1979. "On the Mark: A Theory of Floating Exchange Rates Based on Real Interest Differentials," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(4), pages 610-622, September.
    11. World Bank, 2002. "World Development Indicators 2002," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 13921, December.
    12. Sargent, Thomas J & Wallace, Neil, 1973. "The Stability of Models of Money and Growth with Perfect Foresight," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(6), pages 1043-1048, November.
    13. Hatzipanayotou, Panos & Michael, Michael S. & Miller, Stephen M., 1994. "Win-win indirect tax reform : A modest proposal," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 44(1-2), pages 147-151.
    14. Dornbusch, Rudiger & Fischer, Stanley, 1980. "Exchange Rates and the Current Account," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(5), pages 960-971, December.
    15. Chang, Wen-Ya & Lai, Ching-Chong, 1997. "The Specification of Money Demand, Fiscal Policy, and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 79-102, January.
    16. Pekka Ahtiala, 1998. "Fiscal Policy under Flexible Exchange Rates: When is Expansion Contractionary?," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(2), pages 17-34.
    17. Frenkel, Jacob A. & Rodriguez, Carlos A., 1980. "Exchange Rate Dynamics and Overshooting Hypothesis," Foerder Institute for Economic Research Working Papers 275323, Tel-Aviv University > Foerder Institute for Economic Research.
    18. Turnovsky,Stephen J., 1977. "Macroeconomic Analysis and Stabilization Policy," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521291873.
    19. Yuan, Chunming, 2011. "The exchange rate and macroeconomic determinants: Time-varying transitional dynamics," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 197-220, August.
    20. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-1176, December.
    21. Devereux, Michael B. & Purvis, Douglas D., 1990. "Fiscal policy and the real exchange rate," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1201-1211, September.
    22. Burmeister, Edwin, 1980. "On Some Conceptual Issues in Rational Expectations Modeling," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 12(4), pages 800-816, November.
    23. Chao, Chi-Chur & Hu, Shih-Wen & Tai, Meng-Yi & Wang, Vey, 2011. "Monetary policy announcements and stock price dynamics in a small open economy," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 520-531, October.
    24. Arize, A. C., 1995. "Trade flows and real exchange-rate volatility: an application of cointegration and error-correction modeling," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 37-51.
    25. Aoki, Masanao, 1985. "Misadjustment to anticipated shocks: an example of exchange-rate response," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 415-420, September.
    26. Carr, Jack L. & Floyd, John E., 2002. "Real and monetary shocks to the Canadian dollar: Do Canada and the United States form an optimal currency area?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 21-39, May.
    27. Richard C. Marston, 1982. "Wages, Relative Prices and the Choice between Fixed and Flexible Exchange Rates," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 15(1), pages 87-103, February.
    28. Agenor, Pierre-Richard, 1995. "Monetary shocks and exchange rate dynamics with informal currency markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 211-226.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chen, Shikuan & Chang, Ming-Jen, 2015. "Capital control and exchange rate volatility," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 167-177.
    2. Hamid Beladi & Sugata Marjit & Reza Oladi, 2018. "Does protectionism harm unskilled workers?," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(3), pages 444-450, November.
    3. Hamid Beladi & Avik Chakrabarti & Sugata Marjit, 2016. "Competitive General Equilibrium with Finite Change and Theory of Policy Making," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(1), pages 1-7, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Kara, Orhan, 2000. "Exchange rate overshooting in Turkey," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 89-93, July.
    2. Frenkel, Jacob A. & Mussa, Michael L., 1985. "Asset markets, exchange rates and the balance of payments," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 14, pages 679-747, Elsevier.
    3. Obstfeld, Maurice & Stockman, Alan C., 1985. "Exchange-rate dynamics," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 18, pages 917-977, Elsevier.
    4. Pratomo, Wahyu Ario, 2005. "Exchange Rate of Indonesia: Does Rupiah Overshoot?," MPRA Paper 7381, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Dibooglu, Selahattin, 1993. "Multiple cointegration and structural models: applications to exchange rate determination," ISU General Staff Papers 1993010108000011419, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    6. Oscar Bajo-Rubio & Simón Sosvilla Rivero, 1993. "Teorías del tipo de cambio: una panorámica," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 9307, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
    7. Goldberg, Michael D. & Frydman, Roman, 1996. "Empirical exchange rate models and shifts in the co-integrating vector," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 55-78, March.
    8. John F. O. Bilson, 1984. "Exchange Rate Dynamics," NBER Chapters, in: Exchange Rate Theory and Practice, pages 175-196, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Papell, David H., 1997. "Cointegration and exchange rate dynamics," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 445-459, June.
    10. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Kholdy, Shady & Sohrabian, Ahmad, 1995. "Testing for the relationship between nominal exchange rates and economic fundamentals," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 121-134.
    12. Works, Richard Floyd, 2016. "Econometric modeling of exchange rate determinants by market classification: An empirical analysis of Japan and South Korea using the sticky-price monetary theory," MPRA Paper 76382, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Wohltmann Hans-Werner & Clausen Volker, 2002. "Dynamische Effekte symmetrischer Nachfrageund Angebotspolitiken in einer asymmetrischen Währungsunion / Dynamic Effects of Symmetric Demand and Supply Side Policies in an Asymmetric Monetary Union," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 222(2), pages 230-257, April.
    14. Chadwick, Meltem Gülenay & Fazilet, Fatih & Tekatli, Necati, 2015. "Understanding the common dynamics of the emerging market currencies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 120-136.
    15. Buiter, Willem H, 1984. "Saddlepoint Problems in Continuous Time Rational Expectations Models: A General Method and Some Macroeconomic Examples," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(3), pages 665-680, May.
    16. Jyh-Lin Wu, 1994. "Fiscal announcements and real exchange rate dynamics," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 5(2), pages 177-190, March.
    17. Stuart Landon & Constance E. Smith, 2003. "The Risk Premium, Exchange Rate Expectations, and the Forward Exchange Rate: Estimates for the Yen–Dollar Rate," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(1), pages 144-158, February.
    18. Rudiger Dornbusch & Jeffrey Frankel, 1988. "The Flexible Exchange Rate System: Experience and Alternatives," International Economic Association Series, in: Silvio Borner (ed.), International Finance and Trade in a Polycentric World, chapter 7, pages 151-208, Palgrave Macmillan.
    19. Papell, David H., 1984. "Activist monetary policy and exchange-rate overshooting: The Deutsche mark/dollar rate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 293-310, December.
    20. Kari Heimonen, 2006. "Time-Varying Fundamentals of the Euro-Dollar Exchange Rate," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(4), pages 385-407.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Tariff-tax reform; Policy announcement; Mis-jump;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:24:y:2013:i:c:p:63-73. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620163 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.