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Exchange Rate of Indonesia: Does Rupiah Overshoot?

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  • Pratomo, Wahyu Ario

Abstract

This research attempts to analyze whether Rupiah overshoots when the crisis hit Indonesia in mid of 1998. It also try to find out the fundamental macroeconomic factors that influence exchange rate when economic crisis hit Indonesia. It uses ordinary least square method and also cointegration in order to see long-term relationship. Furthermore, in order to examine the stability of exchange rate when the exchange rate system changed from managed floating to free floating, this paper apply Chow Test. The result shows that when the economic crisis hit Indonesia, Rupiah overshoots and there has been a structural change of exchange rate after 1998.

Suggested Citation

  • Pratomo, Wahyu Ario, 2005. "Exchange Rate of Indonesia: Does Rupiah Overshoot?," MPRA Paper 7381, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:7381
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/7381/1/MPRA_paper_7381.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Papell, David H., 1988. "Expectations and exchange rate dynamics after a decade of floating," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(3-4), pages 303-317, November.
    2. David Backus, 1984. "Empirical Models of the Exchange Rate: Separating the Wheat from the Chaff," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 17(4), pages 824-846, November.
    3. Driskill, Robert A, 1981. "Exchange-Rate Dynamics: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(2), pages 357-371, April.
    4. Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1979. "On the Mark: A Theory of Floating Exchange Rates Based on Real Interest Differentials," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(4), pages 610-622, September.
    5. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2001. "The Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics: Is There a Common Cause?," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000, Volume 15, pages 339-412 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen, 1998. "Do exchange rates follow a random walk process in Middle Eastern countries?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 339-344, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Overshoot; exchange rate; economic crisis; Indonesia;

    JEL classification:

    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates

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