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Real Exchange Rate Overshooting and the Output Cost of Bringing Down Inflation

Author

Listed:
  • Buiter, Willem H
  • Miller, Marcus

    (University of Warwick)

Abstract

The proposition that under a floating exchange rate regime restrictive monetary policy can lead to substantial "overshooting" of the nominal and real exchange rate is now accepted fairly widely. The fundamental reason is the presence of nominal stickiness or inerta in domestic factor and product markets combined with a freely flexible nominal exchange rate. Current and anticipated future monetary policy actions are reflected immediately in the nominal exchange rate, set as it is in a forward-looking efficient auction market while they are reflected only gradually and with a lag in domestic nominal labour costs and / or goods prices. Nominal appreciation of the currency therefore amounts to real appreciation - a loss of competitivensss. Since in most of the simple analytical models used to analyse the overshooting propositions there is no long-run effect of monetary policy on the real exchange rate, any short-run real appreciation implies an overshooting of the long-run equilibrium. The transitory (but potentially quite persistent) loss of competitiveness is associated with a decline in output below its capacity level. This excessive capacity is one of the channels through which restrictive monetary policy brings down the rate of domestic cost and price inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Buiter, Willem H & Miller, Marcus, 1981. "Real Exchange Rate Overshooting and the Output Cost of Bringing Down Inflation," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 204, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:wrk:warwec:204
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Buiter, Willem H. & Miller, Marcus, 1980. "Monetary Policy And International Competitiveness," Economic Research Papers 269135, University of Warwick - Department of Economics.
    2. Okun, Arthur M, 1978. "Efficient Disinflationary Policies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 68(2), pages 348-352, May.
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    JEL classification:

    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • I20 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - General
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making

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