IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Linkages between Excess Currency and Stock Market Returns:Granger Causality in Mean and Variance

  • Eirini Syngelaki

    ()

    (Economics,Finance and Accounting, National University of Ireland, Maynooth)

Registered author(s):

    This paper investigates the causal linkages between monetary and equity market integration of the new member states (NMS) as well as of the non economic monetary union (Non- EMU) member states with the euro zone, after the official launch of the euro. Granger causality in mean and in variance tests are utilized. Our results reveal a number of interesting facts that can be summarized as follows. Firstly, there is little evidence of causality in mean effects for all countries. Secondly, there are significant spill over effects for the NMS. Thirdly, the excess currency return is the chief variable which leads the excess stock market return volatility of the NMS. Our findings have obvious implications for both investors and policy makers.

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL: http://repec.maynoothuniversity.ie/mayecw-files/N209-10.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Paper provided by Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting, National University of Ireland - Maynooth in its series Economics, Finance and Accounting Department Working Paper Series with number n209-10.pdf.

    as
    in new window

    Length: 43 pages
    Date of creation: 2010
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:may:mayecw:n209-10.pdf
    Contact details of provider: Postal:
    Maynooth, Co. Kildare

    Phone: 353-1-7083728
    Fax: 353-1-7083934
    Web page: http://www.maynoothuniversity.ie/economics-finance-and-accounting

    More information through EDIRC

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

    as in new window
    1. Fratzscher, M., 2001. "Financial Market Integration in Europe: On the Effects of EMU on Stock Markets," Papers 48, Quebec a Montreal - Recherche en gestion.
    2. Holtemöller, Oliver, 2003. "Uncovered Interest Rate Parity and Analysis of Monetary Convergence of Potential EMU Accession Countries," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2003,40, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    3. Granger, Clive W.J. & Huang, Bwo-Nung & Yang, Chin W., 1998. "A Bivariate Causality between Stock Prices and Exchange Rates: Evidence from Recent Asia Flu," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt9bk607p6, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    4. Ying Wu, 2000. "Stock prices and exchange rates in VEC model—The case of Singapore in the 1990s," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 24(3), pages 260-274, September.
    5. Ian Babetskii & Lubos Komarek & Zlatuse Komarkova, 2007. "Financial Integration of Stock Markets among New EU Member States and the Euro Area," Working Papers 2007/7, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
    6. Jappelli, Tullio & Pagano, Marco, 2008. "Financial market integration under EMU," CFS Working Paper Series 2008/33, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    7. Dornbusch, Rudiger & Fischer, Stanley, 1980. "Exchange Rates and the Current Account," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(5), pages 960-71, December.
    8. Manganelli, Simone & Hartmann, Philipp & Maddaloni, Angela, 2003. "The euro area financial system: structure, integration and policy initiatives," Working Paper Series 0230, European Central Bank.
    9. Ping Wang & Tomoe Moore, 2008. "Stock Market Integration For The Transition Economies: Time-Varying Conditional Correlation Approach," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 76(s1), pages 116-133, 09.
    10. González, Fernando & Launonen, Simo, 2005. "Towards European monetary integration: the evolution of currency risk premium as a measure for monetary convergence prior to the implementation of currency unions," Working Paper Series 0569, European Central Bank.
    11. Pantelidis, Theologos & Pittis, Nikitas, 2004. "Testing for Granger causality in variance in the presence of causality in mean," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 85(2), pages 201-207, November.
    12. Ross Levine & Norman Loayza & Thorsten Beck, 2002. "Financial Intermediation and Growth: Causality and Causes," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Leonardo Hernández & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Se (ed.), Banking, Financial Integration, and International Crises, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 2, pages 031-084 Central Bank of Chile.
    13. Kim, Suk-Joong & Lucey, Brian M. & Wu, Eliza, 2006. "Dynamics of bond market integration between established and accession European Union countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 41-56, February.
    14. Tomoe Moore, 2007. "Has entry to the European Union altered the dynamic links of stock returns for the emerging markets?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(17), pages 1431-1446.
    15. Arjana Brezigar-Masten & Fabrizio Coricelli & Igor Masten, 2008. "Non-linear growth effects of financial development: Does financial integration matter?," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-00634188, HAL.
    16. Baele, Lieven, 2005. "Volatility Spillover Effects in European Equity Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 40(02), pages 373-401, June.
    17. Pan, Ming-Shiun & Fok, Robert Chi-Wing & Liu, Y. Angela, 2007. "Dynamic linkages between exchange rates and stock prices: Evidence from East Asian markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 503-520.
    18. Simon J. Broome & Morley, B., 2003. "Stock Prices as a leading indicator of the East Asian Financial Crisis," Economics, Finance and Accounting Department Working Paper Series n1311103, Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting, National University of Ireland - Maynooth.
    19. Vilasuso, Jon, 2001. "Causality tests and conditional heteroskedasticity: : Monte Carlo evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 101(1), pages 25-35, March.
    20. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-38, July.
    21. Markus Baltzer & Lorenzo Cappiello & Roberto A. De Santis & Simone Manganelli, 2008. "Measuring financial integration in new EU member states," Occasional Paper Series 81, European Central Bank.
    22. Kim, Suk-Joong & Moshirian, Fariborz & Wu, Eliza, 2006. "Evolution of international stock and bond market integration: Influence of the European Monetary Union," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 1507-1534, May.
    23. Tigran Poghosyan, 2009. "Are “new” and “old” EU members becoming more financially integrated? A threshold cointegration analysis," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 259-281, October.
    24. Hardouvelis, Gikas A & Malliaropoulos, Dimitrios & Priestley, Richard, 1999. "EMU and European Stock Market Integration," CEPR Discussion Papers 2124, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    25. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    26. Lucjan T. Orlowski & Kirsten Lommatzsch, 2005. "Bond Yield Compression in the Countries Converging to the Euro," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series wp799, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    27. Mariassunta Giannetti & Luigi Guiso & Tullio Jappelli & Mario Padula & Marco Pagano, 2002. "Financial Market Integration, Corporate Financing and Economic Growth," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 179, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    28. Kim, Suk Joong & Moshirian, Fariborz & Wu, Eliza, 2005. "Dynamic stock market integration driven by the European Monetary Union: An empirical analysis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(10), pages 2475-2502, October.
    29. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    30. Lieven Baele, 2004. "Measuring European Financial Integration," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 20(4), pages 509-530, Winter.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:may:mayecw:n209-10.pdf. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.