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L'interdépendance des économies en change flexible : les apports d'une maquette dynamique

  • Éric Bleuze
  • Henri Sterdyniak

[eng] Iterdependence of economies under flexible exchange rates : the contributions of dynamic model. . This paper present a dynamic model in order to analyse interdependence between two identical countries under flexible exchange rates. The dynamic process is depending on slow adjustment of prices to their desired level (which is positively related to real interest rate) combined with the influence of current account on foreign exchange markets. On the short run, the exchange rate is determined by financial factors ; on the long run by current account. So the model gives a classical long term equilibrium reached on a keynesian trajectory. Following a disturbance, the new equilibrium is obtained slowly with complex trajectories, which are difficult to forecast. This leads us to be skeptic concerning the realism of the rational expectations hypothesis. Flexible exchange rates are unable to isolate each country from the schocks occurred in the other. More precisely, both countries suffer from a degradation of supply conditions in one of them. A demand expansion in one country provokes a temporary production rise, followed by a long depression especially in the initiating country, whose exchange rate is progressively depreciated. [fre] L'interdépendance des économies en change flexible : les apports d'une maquette dynamique. . L'article présente une maquette dynamique qui permet d'analyser l'interdépendance de deux pays de taille similaire en change flexible. La dynamique repose sur l'ajustement lent des prix à leur niveau désiré (qui est une fonction croissante du taux d'intérêt réel) et sur l'influence de la balance courante sur le marché des changes : le taux de change est déterminé, à court terme, par des facteurs financiers, à long terme, par la balance courante. Aussi, la maquette a un long terme classique et une trajectoire keynésienne. A la suite d'un choc, le retour à l'équilibre est souvent long et les trajectoires complexes et difficilement prévisibles, ce qui jette un doute sur le réalisme de l'hypothèse d'anticipations rationnelles. La flexibilité des changes n 'isole guère chaque pays des chocs survenant chez son partenaire. En particulier, les deux pays souffrent d'une dégradation des conditions de l'offre survenant dans l'un deux ; une hausse de la demande dans l'un des pays provoque une expansion temporaire de la production puis une phase prolongée de dépression, surtout marquée dans le pays initiateur : celui-ci voit son taux de change se déprécier progressivement.

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Article provided by Programme National Persée in its journal Revue économique.

Volume (Year): 39 (1988)
Issue (Month): 5 ()
Pages: 999-1034

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Handle: RePEc:prs:reveco:reco_0035-2764_1988_num_39_5_409110
Note: DOI:10.2307/3501956
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