IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/98329.html

Structural Analysis of the Effect of Exchange Rate Movement on Stock Market Performance in Nigeria

Author

Listed:
  • Benjamin, Oluwasegun Olawale
  • Fatile, John Ojo

Abstract

This paper investigates the impact and causal relationship between exchange rate movement and stock market performance in Nigeria using monthly data spanning from February 2001 to December 2017. Estimated models include pre-crisis, crisis, post-crisis, and the primary model. Johanson co-integration, IGARCH (1,1) and Pairwise Granger causality techniques were used for the analysis. The result of the co-integration test suggested the absence of a long-run relationship among the variables. The estimated IGARCH (1,1) model revealed that the exchange rate and money supply have positive impact on stock market performance. Furthermore, the paper established evidence of a one-way causality from exchange rate to stock market performance in the primary and pre-crisis models and no causality during the crisis and post-crisis periods. Thus, we recommend that the monetary authority should pay close attention to exchange rate movement, address the problem of market manipulations, and employ robust measures to protect the stock market from possible future crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Benjamin, Oluwasegun Olawale & Fatile, John Ojo, 2019. "Structural Analysis of the Effect of Exchange Rate Movement on Stock Market Performance in Nigeria," MPRA Paper 98329, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 19 Nov 2019.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:98329
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/98329/1/MPRA_paper_98329.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/98337/1/MPRA_paper_98337.pdf
    File Function: revised version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lorraine Rupande & Hilary Tinotenda Muguto & Paul-Francois Muzindutsi, 2019. "Investor sentiment and stock return volatility: Evidence from the Johannesburg Stock Exchange," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 1600233-160, January.
    2. Dornbusch, Rudiger & Fischer, Stanley, 1980. "Exchange Rates and the Current Account," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(5), pages 960-971, December.
    3. Serpil Kahraman Akdogu & Ayse Ozden Birkan, 2016. "Interaction between Stock Prices and Exchange Rate in Emerging Market Economies," Research in World Economy, Research in World Economy, Sciedu Press, vol. 7(1), pages 80-94, June.
    4. Babajide Fowowe, 2015. "The relationship between stock prices and exchange rates in South Africa and Nigeria: structural breaks analysis," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(1), pages 1-14, January.
    5. Aliyu, Shehu Usman Rano, 2009. "Stock Prices and Exchange Rate Interactions in Nigeria: An Intra-Global Financial Crisis Maiden Investigation," MPRA Paper 13283, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 09 Feb 2009.
    6. Yingying HAN & Xiang ZHOU, 2017. "The Relationship between Stock and Exchange Rates for BRICS Countries Pre - and Post - Crisis: A Mixed C - VINE Copula Model," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 38-59, March.
    7. repec:icf:icfjfe:v:07:y:2009:i:3&4:p:7-23 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Effiong, Ekpeno L., 2016. "Nonlinear Dependence between Stock Prices and Exchange Rate in Nigeria," MPRA Paper 74336, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Tian, Maoxi & El Khoury, Rim & Alshater, Muneer M., 2023. "The nonlinear and negative tail dependence and risk spillovers between foreign exchange and stock markets in emerging economies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    3. Andrew Phiri, 2020. "Structural changes in exchange rate-stock returns dynamics in South Africa: examining the role of crisis and new trading platform," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 171-193, February.
    4. Musa Ilias Biala & A.K. Oladejo, 2022. "On the Nexus between Exchange Rate and Stock Price in Nigeria," International Journal of Finance, Insurance and Risk Management, International Journal of Finance, Insurance and Risk Management, vol. 12(1), pages 80-99.
    5. Sikhosana, Ayanda & Aye, Goodness C., 2018. "Asymmetric volatility transmission between the real exchange rate and stock returns in South Africa," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 1-8.
    6. Ibukun Ogunsanya & Temitope Wasiu Adamson, 2024. "Exchange Rate Movement And Stock Returns In Most Capitalised Economies In Sub-Saharan Africa," Ilorin Journal of Economic Policy, Department of Economics, University of Ilorin, vol. 11(1), pages 18-37.
    7. Owusu Junior, Peterson & Tweneboah, George, 2020. "Are there asymmetric linkages between African stocks and exchange rates?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    8. Ahmed S. Alimi & Oladotun D. Olaniran, 2019. "Monetary Policy and the Stock Price - Exchange Rate Nexus: New Insights from Influential African Economies," Asian Development Policy Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 7(2), pages 66-79, June.
    9. Xie, Zixiong & Chen, Shyh-Wei & Wu, An-Chi, 2020. "The foreign exchange and stock market nexus: New international evidence," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 240-266.
    10. I. E. Okorie & A. C. Akpanta & J. Ohakwe & D. C. Chikezie & C. U. Onyemachi & M. C. Ugwu, 2021. "Modeling the Relationships Across Nigeria Inflation, Exchange Rate, and Stock Market Returns and Further Analysis," Annals of Data Science, Springer, vol. 8(2), pages 295-329, June.
    11. Wee-Yeap Lau & You-How Go, 2018. "Dynamic Causality Between Stock Return and Exchange Rate: Is Stock-Oriented Hypothesis More Relevant in Malaysia?," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 25(2), pages 137-157, June.
    12. Aravind M., 2017. "FX Volatility Impact on Indian Stock Market: An Empirical Investigation," Vision, , vol. 21(3), pages 284-294, September.
    13. Chkili, Walid & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2014. "Exchange rate movements and stock market returns in a regime-switching environment: Evidence for BRICS countries," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 46-56.
    14. De Paoli, Bianca & Küçük-Tuger, Hande & Søndergaard, Jens, 2010. "Monetary policy rules and foreign currency positions," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 121699, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    15. Aviral Tiwari & Niyati Bhanja & Arif Dar & Faridul Islam, 2015. "Time–frequency relationship between share prices and exchange rates in India: Evidence from continuous wavelets," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 699-714, March.
    16. Chkili, Walid & Aloui, Chaker & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2012. "Asymmetric effects and long memory in dynamic volatility relationships between stock returns and exchange rates," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 738-757.
    17. Roudari, Soheil & Arabi, Seyed Hadi & Shahabadi, abolfazl & Adeli, Omid Ali, 2023. "اثرات سرریز پویای ریسک میان نرخ ارز، سهام، مسکن و سکه در ایران: شواهدی جدید از مقایسه دوران تحریم و غیرتحریم [Effects of dynamic risk spillover between exchange rates, stocks, housing and coins in ," MPRA Paper 127003, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Jan 2025.
    18. Sin-Yu Ho & N.M. Odhiambo, 2018. "Analysing the macroeconomic drivers of stock market development in the Philippines," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 1451265-145, January.
    19. Chen, Binxia & Jiang, Yuanying & Zhou, Donghai, 2025. "Risk contagion network and characteristic measurement among international financial markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    20. Maryatmo, Rogatianus, 2010. "Pengaruh Jangka Pendek dan Jangka Panjang Perubahan Suku Bunga dan Kurs Rupiah Terhadap Harga Saham : Studi Empiris di Indonesia (2000:1 – 2010:4)," MPRA Paper 25532, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:98329. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.