IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/globus/v23y2022i2p259-286.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Spillover Effects Between Stock Prices and Exchange Rates for the Central and Eastern European Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Ngo Thai Hung

Abstract

This article attempts to empirically analyze the dynamic relationship and volatility spillover effects between exchange rates and stock returns of the five Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries (Hungary, Poland, the Czech Republic, Romania and Croatia) covering the period 2000–2017 by using the bivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity-Baba, Engle, Kraft and Kroner (GARCH-BEKK) framework alongside with the constant and dynamic conditional correlation (CCC and DCC) models. The major findings reveal the following: bidirectional volatility spillovers between the two financial markets in Hungary, the Czech Republic and Croatia in the pre-crisis period; unidirectional spillover of volatility from the stock market to foreign exchange market for Poland during the sub-prime crisis period; unidirectional spillover of volatility from the foreign exchange market to the stock market for Hungary in the post-crisis period and Romania in the pre-crisis period; non-persistence volatility spillover between them in case of the Czech Republic, Romania and Croatia in the post-crisis period; the absence of volatility transmission from the stock market to foreign exchange market occurs in Hungary, while from the foreign exchange market to the stock market in case of Poland in the post-crisis period. We further find a short-lived but non-negligible financial contagion between stock and foreign exchange market in these countries. These empirical insights have significant implications for portfolio investments and currency risk hedging.

Suggested Citation

  • Ngo Thai Hung, 2022. "Spillover Effects Between Stock Prices and Exchange Rates for the Central and Eastern European Countries," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 23(2), pages 259-286, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:globus:v:23:y:2022:i:2:p:259-286
    DOI: 10.1177/0972150919869772
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0972150919869772
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/0972150919869772?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(1), pages 122-150, February.
    2. Chkili, Walid & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2014. "Exchange rate movements and stock market returns in a regime-switching environment: Evidence for BRICS countries," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 46-56.
    3. Gjika, Dritan & Horváth, Roman, 2013. "Stock market comovements in Central Europe: Evidence from the asymmetric DCC model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 55-64.
    4. Angelos Kanas, 2000. "Volatility Spillovers Between Stock Returns and Exchange Rate Changes: International Evidence," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(3‐4), pages 447-467, April.
    5. N Mozumder & G De Vita & K.S. Kyaw & C Larkin, 2015. "Volatility Spillover Between Stock Prices and Exchange Rates: New Evidence Across the Recent Financial Crisis Period," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 20(1), pages 43-64, March.
    6. Chow, Edward H & Lee, Wayne Y & Solt, Michael E, 1997. "The Exchange-Rate Risk Exposure of Asset Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 70(1), pages 105-123, January.
    7. Andreou, Elena & Matsi, Maria & Savvides, Andreas, 2013. "Stock and foreign exchange market linkages in emerging economies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 248-268.
    8. Kim, Bong-Han & Kim, Hyeongwoo & Lee, Bong-Soo, 2015. "Spillover effects of the U.S. financial crisis on financial markets in emerging Asian countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 192-210.
    9. Granger, Clive W. J. & Huangb, Bwo-Nung & Yang, Chin-Wei, 2000. "A bivariate causality between stock prices and exchange rates: evidence from recent Asianflu," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 337-354.
    10. Vo, Xuan Vinh & Ellis, Craig, 2018. "International financial integration: Stock return linkages and volatility transmission between Vietnam and advanced countries," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 19-27.
    11. Wong, Hock Tsen, 2017. "Real exchange rate returns and real stock price returns," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 340-352.
    12. Walid, Chkili & Chaker, Aloui & Masood, Omar & Fry, John, 2011. "Stock market volatility and exchange rates in emerging countries: A Markov-state switching approach," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 272-292, September.
    13. Hassan Mohammadi & Yuting Tan, 2015. "Return and Volatility Spillovers across Equity Markets in Mainland China, Hong Kong and the United States," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 3(2), pages 1-18, April.
    14. Ajayi, Richard A. & Friedman, Joseph & Mehdian, Seyed M., 1998. "On the relationship between stock returns and exchange rates: Tests of granger causality," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 241-251.
    15. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Hunter, John & Menla Ali, Faek, 2014. "On the linkages between stock prices and exchange rates: Evidence from the banking crisis of 2007–2010," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 87-103.
    16. Bollerslev, Tim, 1990. "Modelling the Coherence in Short-run Nominal Exchange Rates: A Multivariate Generalized ARCH Model," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(3), pages 498-505, August.
    17. Moore, Tomoe & Wang, Ping, 2014. "Dynamic linkage between real exchange rates and stock prices: Evidence from developed and emerging Asian markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 1-11.
    18. Khalil Jebran & Amjad Iqbal, 2016. "Dynamics of volatility spillover between stock market and foreign exchange market: evidence from Asian Countries," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 2(1), pages 1-20, December.
    19. Kumar, Satish & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Chauhan, Yogesh & Ji, Qiang, 2019. "Dependence structure between the BRICS foreign exchange and stock markets using the dependence-switching copula approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 273-284.
    20. Ying Wu, 2000. "Stock prices and exchange rates in VEC model—The case of Singapore in the 1990s," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 24(3), pages 260-274, September.
    21. Kroner, Kenneth F. & Sultan, Jahangir, 1993. "Time-Varying Distributions and Dynamic Hedging with Foreign Currency Futures," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(4), pages 535-551, December.
    22. Mansor H. Ibrahim & Hassanuddeen Aziz, 2003. "Macroeconomic variables and the Malaysian equity market: A view through rolling subsamples," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 30(1), pages 6-27, January.
    23. Zhao, Hua, 2010. "Dynamic relationship between exchange rate and stock price: Evidence from China," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 103-112, June.
    24. Yang, Sheng-Ping, 2017. "Exchange rate dynamics and stock prices in small open economies: Evidence from Asia-Pacific countries," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 46(PB), pages 337-354.
    25. Dornbusch, Rudiger & Fischer, Stanley, 1980. "Exchange Rates and the Current Account," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(5), pages 960-971, December.
    26. Elena Fedorova & Kashif Saleem, 2010. "Volatility Spillovers between Stock and Currency Markets: Evidence from Emerging Eastern Europe," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 60(6), pages 519-533, December.
    27. Yau, Hwey-Yun & Nieh, Chien-Chung, 2009. "Testing for cointegration with threshold effect between stock prices and exchange rates in Japan and Taiwan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 292-300, August.
    28. Engle, Robert, 2002. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: A Simple Class of Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 339-350, July.
    29. Majdoub, Jihed & Mansour, Walid, 2014. "Islamic equity market integration and volatility spillover between emerging and US stock markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 452-470.
    30. Chaker Aloui, 2007. "Price and volatility spillovers between exchange rates and stock indexes for the pre- and post-euro period," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(6), pages 669-685.
    31. Sheng-Yung Yang & Shuh-Chyi Doong, 2004. "Price and Volatility Spillovers between Stock Prices and Exchange Rates: Empirical Evidence from the G-7 Countries," International Journal of Business and Economics, School of Management Development, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 3(2), pages 139-153, August.
    32. Chkili, Walid & Aloui, Chaker & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2012. "Asymmetric effects and long memory in dynamic volatility relationships between stock returns and exchange rates," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 738-757.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Tian, Maoxi & El Khoury, Rim & Alshater, Muneer M., 2023. "The nonlinear and negative tail dependence and risk spillovers between foreign exchange and stock markets in emerging economies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tian, Maoxi & El Khoury, Rim & Alshater, Muneer M., 2023. "The nonlinear and negative tail dependence and risk spillovers between foreign exchange and stock markets in emerging economies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    2. Xie, Zixiong & Chen, Shyh-Wei & Wu, An-Chi, 2020. "The foreign exchange and stock market nexus: New international evidence," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 240-266.
    3. Malik, Farooq, 2021. "Volatility spillover between exchange rate and stock returns under volatility shifts," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 605-613.
    4. Christos Kollias & Stephanos Papadamou & Costas Siriopoulos, 2016. "Stock markets and effective exchange rates in European countries: threshold cointegration findings," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 6(2), pages 215-274, August.
    5. N Mozumder & G De Vita & K.S. Kyaw & C Larkin, 2015. "Volatility Spillover Between Stock Prices and Exchange Rates: New Evidence Across the Recent Financial Crisis Period," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 20(1), pages 43-64, March.
    6. Salah A. Nusair & Jamal A. Al-Khasawneh, 2022. "On the relationship between Asian exchange rates and stock prices: a nonlinear analysis," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 55(1), pages 361-400, February.
    7. Walid M. A. Ahmed, 2014. "Dynamic interactions between Egyptian equity and currency markets prior to and during political unrest," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(20), pages 1347-1359, October.
    8. Khalil Jebran & Amjad Iqbal, 2016. "Dynamics of volatility spillover between stock market and foreign exchange market: evidence from Asian Countries," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 2(1), pages 1-20, December.
    9. Kanda, Patrick & Burke, Michael & Gupta, Rangan, 2018. "Time-varying causality between equity and currency returns in the United Kingdom: Evidence from over two centuries of data," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 506(C), pages 1060-1080.
    10. Andrew Phiri, 2020. "Structural changes in exchange rate-stock returns dynamics in South Africa: examining the role of crisis and new trading platform," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 171-193, February.
    11. Simona Moagăr-Poladian & Dorina Clichici & Cristian-Valeriu Stanciu, 2019. "The Comovement of Exchange Rates and Stock Markets in Central and Eastern Europe," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(14), pages 1-22, July.
    12. Hong-Ghi Min & Judith A. McDonald & Sang-Ook Shin, 2016. "What Makes a Safe Haven? Equity and Currency Returns for Six OECD Countries during the Financial Crisis," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 17(2), pages 365-402, November.
    13. Walid, Chkili & Chaker, Aloui & Masood, Omar & Fry, John, 2011. "Stock market volatility and exchange rates in emerging countries: A Markov-state switching approach," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 272-292, September.
    14. Athanasios Koulakiotis & Apostolis Kiohos & Vassilios Babalos, 2015. "Exploring the interaction between stock price index and exchange rates: an asymmetric threshold approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(13), pages 1273-1285, March.
    15. Shaobo Long & Mengxue Zhang & Keaobo Li & Shuyu Wu, 2021. "Do the RMB exchange rate and global commodity prices have asymmetric or symmetric effects on China’s stock prices?," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-21, December.
    16. Stefanescu, Razvan & Dumitriu, Ramona, 2013. "Impact of the foreign exchange rates fluctuations on returns and volatility of the Bucharest Stock Exchange," MPRA Paper 47229, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 04 Apr 2013.
    17. Mostafa Ali & Gang Sun, 2017. "Dynamic Relations between Stock Price and Exchange Rate: Evidence from South Asia," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(3), pages 331-341.
    18. Wee-Yeap Lau & You-How Go, 2018. "Dynamic Causality Between Stock Return and Exchange Rate: Is Stock-Oriented Hypothesis More Relevant in Malaysia?," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 25(2), pages 137-157, June.
    19. Gideon Boako & Maurice Omane-Adjepong & Joseph Magnus Frimpong, 2016. "Stock Returns and Exchange Rate Nexus in Ghana: A Bayesian Quantile Regression Approach," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 84(1), pages 149-179, March.
    20. Bonga-Bonga, Lumengo & Gnagne, Pascal Xavier, 2017. "The impact of exchange rate volatility on capital flows in BRICS economies," MPRA Paper 84773, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:globus:v:23:y:2022:i:2:p:259-286. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.imi.edu/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.