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On Estimating the Expected Return on the Market: An Exploratory Investigation

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Tang, Cheng Yong & Chen, Song Xi, 2009. "Parameter estimation and bias correction for diffusion processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 149(1), pages 65-81, April.
  2. Loban, Lidia & Sarto, José Luis & Vicente, Luis, 2021. "Determinants of non-compliant equity funds with EU portfolio concentration limits," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
  3. Sassan Alizadeh & Michael W. Brandt & Francis X. Diebold, 1999. "Range-Based Estimation of Stochastic Volatility Models or Exchange Rate Dynamics are More Interesting Than You Think," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 00-28, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
  4. Pradosh Simlai, 2009. "Stock returns, size, and book‐to‐market equity," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 26(3), pages 198-212, July.
  5. Guesmi, Khaled & Kablan, Sandrine, 2015. "Financial integration and Japanese stock market," MPRA Paper 70206, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Martin C Schmalz & Sergey Zhuk, 2019. "Revealing Downturns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 32(1), pages 338-373.
  7. Chiang, Thomas C., 2021. "Spillovers of U.S. market volatility and monetary policy uncertainty to global stock markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
  8. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Paul Labys, 1999. "The Distribution of Exchange Rate Volatility," New York University, Leonard N. Stern School Finance Department Working Paper Seires 99-059, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business-.
  9. Jun Liu & Francis A. Longstaff & Jun Pan, 2003. "Dynamic Asset Allocation with Event Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(1), pages 231-259, February.
  10. Arouri, Mohamed & Teulon, Frédéric & Rault, Christophe, 2013. "Equity risk premium and regional integration," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 79-85.
  11. Ľluboš Pástor & Robert F. Stambaugh, 2001. "The Equity Premium and Structural Breaks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1207-1239, August.
  12. Hui Guo & Robert F. Whitelaw, 2006. "Uncovering the Risk–Return Relation in the Stock Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(3), pages 1433-1463, June.
  13. Thomas Trier Bjerring & Omri Ross & Alex Weissensteiner, 2017. "Feature selection for portfolio optimization," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 256(1), pages 21-40, September.
  14. Jin, Xing & Zhang, Kun, 2013. "Dynamic optimal portfolio choice in a jump-diffusion model with investment constraints," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 1733-1746.
  15. Miguel Antón & Christopher Polk, 2014. "Connected Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(3), pages 1099-1127, June.
  16. Pindyck, Robert S, 1984. "Risk, Inflation, and the Stock Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(3), pages 335-351, June.
  17. Juan Carlos Escanciano & Juan Carlos Pardo-Fernández & Ingrid Van Keilegom, 2017. "Semiparametric Estimation of Risk–Return Relationships," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(1), pages 40-52, January.
  18. Aretz, Kevin & Bartram, Söhnke M. & Pope, Peter F., 2011. "Asymmetric loss functions and the rationality of expected stock returns," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 413-437.
  19. Gonçalo Faria & João Correia-da-Silva, 2014. "A closed-form solution for options with ambiguity about stochastic volatility," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 125-159, July.
  20. Asai, Manabu & McAleer, Michael & Medeiros, Marcelo C., 2012. "Modelling and forecasting noisy realized volatility," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 217-230, January.
  21. Philip Maymin & Zakhar Maymin, 2012. "Any regulation of risk increases risk," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 26(3), pages 299-313, September.
  22. Balbás, Alejandro & Laborda Herrero, Ricardo, 2017. "Interest Rate Future Quality Options and Negative Interest Rates," INDEM - Working Paper Business Economic Series 24859, Instituto para el Desarrollo Empresarial (INDEM).
  23. Mun, Kyung-Chun & Morgan, George Emir, 2003. "Risk premia on foreign exchange: a direct approach," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 231-250, July.
  24. Henriksson, Roy. & Lessard, Donald R., 1982. "The efficiency of the forward exchange market : a conditional nonparametric test of forecasting ability," Working papers 1337-82., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
  25. Piotr Fiszeder, 2011. "Minimum Variance Portfolio Selection for Large Number of Stocks – Application of Time-Varying Covariance Matrices," Dynamic Econometric Models, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 11, pages 87-98.
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  27. Taras Bodnar & Nestor Parolya & Erik Thors'en, 2022. "Two is better than one: Regularized shrinkage of large minimum variance portfolio," Papers 2202.06666, arXiv.org.
  28. Roel van Elk & Marc van der Steeg & Dinand Webbink, 2013. "The effects of a special program for multi-problem school dropouts on educational enrolment, employment and criminal behaviour; Evidence from a field experiment," CPB Discussion Paper 241.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
  29. Golosnoy, Vasyl & Gribisch, Bastian & Seifert, Miriam Isabel, 2019. "Exponential smoothing of realized portfolio weights," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 222-237.
  30. Boldanov, Rustam & Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George, 2016. "Time-varying correlation between oil and stock market volatilities: Evidence from oil-importing and oil-exporting countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 209-220.
  31. Bollerslev, Tim & Kretschmer, Uta & Pigorsch, Christian & Tauchen, George, 2009. "A discrete-time model for daily S & P500 returns and realized variations: Jumps and leverage effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 150(2), pages 151-166, June.
  32. Lorenzo Mercuri & Edit Rroji, 2018. "Risk parity for Mixed Tempered Stable distributed sources of risk," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 260(1), pages 375-393, January.
  33. Collin-Dufresne, Pierre & Daniel, Kent & Sağlam, Mehmet, 2020. "Liquidity regimes and optimal dynamic asset allocation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(2), pages 379-406.
  34. Christopher F. Baum & Mustafa Caglayan & Neslihan Ozkan, 2004. "Nonlinear effects of exchange rate volatility on the volume of bilateral exports," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(1), pages 1-23.
  35. Olessia Caillé & Daria Onori, 2019. "Conditional Risk-Based Portfolio," Finance, Presses universitaires de Grenoble, vol. 40(2), pages 77-117.
  36. Christopher F. Baum & Mustafa Caglayan & Oleksandr Talavera, 2010. "On the sensitivity of firms' investment to cash flow and uncertainty," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 62(2), pages 286-306, April.
  37. Xu, Ke-Li, 2009. "Empirical likelihood-based inference for nonparametric recurrent diffusions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 153(1), pages 65-82, November.
  38. Long H. Vo, 2017. "Estimating Financial Volatility with High-Frequency Returns," Journal of Finance and Economics Research, Geist Science, Iqra University, Faculty of Business Administration, vol. 2(2), pages 84-114, October.
  39. Amir KIA, 2009. "Developing a Market-Based Monetary Policy Transparency Index and Testing Its Impact on Risk and Volatility in the United States," EcoMod2009 21500052, EcoMod.
  40. Paudyal, Krishna & Saldanha, Liesl, 1997. "Stock returns and volatility in two regime markets: International evidence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 209-228.
  41. Andrew Ang & Allan Timmermann, 2012. "Regime Changes and Financial Markets," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 4(1), pages 313-337, October.
  42. Muhinyuza, Stanislas & Bodnar, Taras & Lindholm, Mathias, 2020. "A test on the location of the tangency portfolio on the set of feasible portfolios," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 386(C).
  43. Cesare Robotti, 2003. "Dynamic strategies, asset pricing models, and the out-of-sample performance of the tangency portfolio," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2003-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  44. Jacob Boudoukh & Matthew Richardson & Robert F. Whitelaw, 1997. "Nonlinearities in the Relation Between the Equity Risk Premium and the Term Structure," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 43(3), pages 371-385, March.
  45. Yao, Jing & Yang, Yiwen, 2023. "Risk-return tradeoff and serial correlation in the Chinese stock market: A bailout-driven crash feedback hypothesis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
  46. Pernagallo, Giuseppe & Torrisi, Benedetto, 2020. "Blindfolded monkeys or financial analysts: Who is worth your money? New evidence on informational inefficiencies in the U.S. stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 539(C).
  47. Abhakorn, Pongrapeeporn & Smith, Peter N. & Wickens, Michael R., 2016. "Can stochastic discount factor models explain the cross-section of equity returns?," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 56-68.
  48. Turhan, M. Ibrahim & Sensoy, Ahmet & Ozturk, Kevser & Hacihasanoglu, Erk, 2014. "A view to the long-run dynamic relationship between crude oil and the major asset classes," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 286-299.
  49. Hartwell, Christopher A., 2014. "The impact of institutional volatility on financial volatility in transition economies : a GARCH family approach," BOFIT Discussion Papers 6/2014, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  50. Koutmos, Dimitrios, 2012. "An intertemporal capital asset pricing model with heterogeneous expectations," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 1176-1187.
  51. Wang, Cindy S.H. & Fan, Rui & Xie, Yiqiang, 2023. "Market systemic risk, predictability and macroeconomics news," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
  52. Frazzini, Andrea & Pedersen, Lasse Heje, 2014. "Betting against beta," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(1), pages 1-25.
  53. Stavros Degiannakis, George Filis, and Renatas Kizys, 2014. "The Effects of Oil Price Shocks on Stock Market Volatility: Evidence from European Data," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1).
  54. Dimitrios D. Thomakos & Michail S. Koubouros, 2011. "The Role of Realised Volatility in the Athens Stock Exchange," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 15(1-2), pages 87-124, March - J.
  55. Klaassen, Franc, 2004. "Why is it so difficult to find an effect of exchange rate risk on trade?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 817-839, September.
  56. Gonzalez-Rivera, Gloria, 1996. "Time-varying risk The case of the American computer industry," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 333-342, February.
  57. John Y. Campbell, 2000. "Asset Pricing at the Millennium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1515-1567, August.
  58. Ding, Wenliang & Shu, Lianjie & Gu, Xinhua, 2023. "A robust Glasso approach to portfolio selection in high dimensions," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 22-37.
  59. Hongjun Yan, 2008. "Natural Selection in Financial Markets: Does It Work?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 54(11), pages 1935-1950, November.
  60. Ľuboš Pástor & Meenakshi Sinha & Bhaskaran Swaminathan, 2008. "Estimating the Intertemporal Risk–Return Tradeoff Using the Implied Cost of Capital," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(6), pages 2859-2897, December.
  61. Smith, Simon C., 2017. "Equity premium estimates from economic fundamentals under structural breaks," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 49-61.
  62. Candelon, B. & Hurlin, C. & Tokpavi, S., 2012. "Sampling error and double shrinkage estimation of minimum variance portfolios," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 511-527.
  63. Romuald Kenmoe & Simona Sanfelici, 2014. "An application of nonparametric volatility estimators to option pricing," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 37(2), pages 393-412, October.
  64. Chiang, Thomas C., 2019. "Empirical analysis of intertemporal relations between downside risks and expected returns—Evidence from Asian markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 264-278.
  65. Zi‐Yi Guo, 2021. "Out‐of‐sample performance of bias‐corrected estimators for diffusion processes," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(2), pages 243-268, March.
  66. Avdis, Efstathios & Wachter, Jessica A., 2017. "Maximum likelihood estimation of the equity premium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(3), pages 589-609.
  67. Barone-Adesi, Giovanni & Fusari, Nicola & Mira, Antonietta & Sala, Carlo, 2020. "Option market trading activity and the estimation of the pricing kernel: A Bayesian approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 216(2), pages 430-449.
  68. Baron, Opher & Callen, Jeffrey L. & Segal, Dan, 2023. "Does the bullwhip matter economically? A cross-sectional firm-level analysis," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 259(C).
  69. Campbell, John Y & Kim, Sangjoon & Lettau, Martin, 1998. "Dispersion and Volatility in Stock Returns: An Empirical Investigation," CEPR Discussion Papers 1923, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  71. Avelino, Ricardo R. G., 2011. "The Relation between Expected Returns and Volatility in the Brazilian Stock Market," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 31(1), March.
  72. Bill McDonald & Michael H. Morris, 1983. "The Existence Of Heteroscedasticity And Its Effect On Estimates Of The Market Model Parameters," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 6(2), pages 115-126, June.
  73. Chen, Xiaoyu & Chiang, Thomas C., 2020. "Empirical investigation of changes in policy uncertainty on stock returns—Evidence from China’s market," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
  74. Ding, Wenjie & Mazouz, Khelifa & Wang, Qingwei, 2021. "Volatility timing, sentiment, and the short-term profitability of VIX-based cross-sectional trading strategies," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 42-56.
  75. Chen, Jian & Jiang, Fuwei & Liu, Yangshu & Tu, Jun, 2017. "International volatility risk and Chinese stock return predictability," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 183-203.
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  128. Thomas Conlon & John Cotter & Iason Kynigakis, 2021. "Machine Learning and Factor-Based Portfolio Optimization," Working Papers 202111, Geary Institute, University College Dublin.
  129. Esben Hedegaard & Robert J. Hodrick, 2014. "Measuring the Risk-Return Tradeoff with Time-Varying Conditional Covariances," NBER Working Papers 20245, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  130. Sassan Alizadeh & Michael W. Brandt & Francis X. Diebold, 2002. "Range‐Based Estimation of Stochastic Volatility Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(3), pages 1047-1091, June.
  131. Seyoung Park & Eun Ryung Lee & Sungchul Lee & Geonwoo Kim, 2019. "Dantzig Type Optimization Method with Applications to Portfolio Selection," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(11), pages 1-32, June.
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