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Back to fundamentals: The role of expected cash flows in equity valuation

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  • Foerster, Stephen R.
  • Sapp, Stephen G.
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    Abstract

    To better understand how investors have historically valued equities, we compare monthly values of the S&P Index to our corresponding estimated fundamental values from 1871 to 2010, using ex ante available information. We find that the simple Gordon Growth Model performs better than other, more sophisticated valuation models. Based on the Gordon Growth Model, equities were undervalued prior to 1914, overvalued between 1914 and 1981, and fairly valued until 2010 after controlling for well-known economic and price-based factors. We also find the implied market risk premium over this period is around 5%.

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    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1062940811000386
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal The North American Journal of Economics and Finance.

    Volume (Year): 22 (2011)
    Issue (Month): 3 ()
    Pages: 320-343

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:22:y:2011:i:3:p:320-343

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    Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620163

    Related research

    Keywords: Asset pricing; Valuation; Dividend discount model; Multi-factor models;

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    Cited by:
    1. Huang, Ying Sophie & Wang, Yizhong, 2013. "Asset price, risk transfer and economic activities: Firm-level evidence from China," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 663-676.

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