We propose a dynamic portfolio selection model that maximizes expected returns subject to a Value-at-Risk constraint. The model allows for time varying skewness and kurtosis of portfolio distributions estimating the model parameters by weighted maximum likelihood in a increasing window setup. We determine the best daily investment recommendations in terms of percentage to borrow or lend and the optimal weights of the assets in the risky portfolio. Two empirical applications illustrate in an out-of-sample context which models are preferred from a statistical and economic point of view. We find that the APARCH(1,1) model outperforms the GARCH(1,1) model. A sensitivity analysis with respect to the distributional innovation hypothesis shows that in general the skewed-t is preferred to the normal and Student-t.
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Paper provided by HEC Montréal, Institut d'économie appliquée in its series Cahiers de recherche with number
04-05.
Length: 31 pages Date of creation: Jul 2004 Date of revision: Handle: RePEc:iea:carech:0405
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References listed on IDEAS Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
Hansen, Bruce E, 1994.
"Autoregressive Conditional Density Estimation,"
International Economic Review,
Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 35(3), pages 705-30, August.
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