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Regime Shifts in Asian Equity and Real Estate Markets

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Author Info
Jarl G. Kallberg
Crocker H. Liu
Paolo Pasquariello

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Abstract

This paper applies a new statistical technology for identifying regime shifts to analyze recent data on real estate and equity markets in eight developing Far Eastern countries in the 1992-1998 time period. We find that regime shifts in volatility occur in the summer of 1997; however, most of the regime shifts in returns occur in the spring of 1998. While the clustering of regime breaks does not seem to follow any obvious pattern, the country's exposure to trade and firm leverage are important. An analysis of Granger causality suggests that, in most cases, equity returns cause real estate returns but the converse is not true. We also find two-way causality in volatility, suggesting that a common factor drives volatility in these markets. Finally, we provide evidence that the regime shifts generally imply higher relative risk for real estate securities after the estimated breaks. Copyright 2002 by the American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association.

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File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/1540-6229.00040
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Publisher Info
Article provided by American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association in its journal Real Estate Economics.

Volume (Year): 30 (2002)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 263-291
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Handle: RePEc:bla:reesec:v:30:y:2002:i:2:p:263-291

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Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=1080-8620

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  1. Kim Liow & Kim Ho & Muhammad Ibrahim & Ziwei Chen, 2009. "Correlation and Volatility Dynamics in International Real Estate Securities Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 39(2), pages 202-223, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Shaun Bond & Mardi Dungey & Renée Fry, 2006. "A Web Of Shocks: Crises Across Asian Real Estate Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 32(3), pages 253-274, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Joseph T.L. Ooi & Kim-Hiang Liow, 2004. "Risk-Adjusted Performance of Real Estate Stocks: Evidence From Developing Markets," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 26(4), pages 371-396. [Downloadable!]
  4. Wen-Chieh Wu & Chin-Oh Chang & Zekiye Selvili, 2003. "Banking System, Real Estate Markets, and Nonperforming Loans," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 6(1), pages 43-62. [Downloadable!]
  5. Renee Fry & Vance L. Martin & Chrismin Tang, 2008. "A New Class Of Tests Of Contagion With Applications To Real Estate Markets," CAMA Working Papers 2008-01, Australian National University, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis. [Downloadable!]
  6. Qin Xiao & Randolph Gee Kwang Tan, 2006. "Signal Extraction with Kalman Filter: A Study of the Hong Kong Property Price Bubbles," Economic Growth centre Working Paper Series 0601, Nanyang Technolgical University, School of Humanities and Social Sciences, Economic Growth centre. [Downloadable!]
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