Regime Shifts in Asian Equity and Real Estate Markets
AbstractThis paper applies a new statistical technology for identifying regime shifts to analyze recent data on real estate and equity markets in eight developing Far Eastern countries in the 1992-1998 time period. We find that regime shifts in volatility occur in the summer of 1997; however, most of the regime shifts in returns occur in the spring of 1998. While the clustering of regime breaks does not seem to follow any obvious pattern, the country's exposure to trade and firm leverage are important. An analysis of Granger causality suggests that, in most cases, equity returns cause real estate returns but the converse is not true. We also find two-way causality in volatility, suggesting that a common factor drives volatility in these markets. Finally, we provide evidence that the regime shifts generally imply higher relative risk for real estate securities after the estimated breaks. Copyright 2002 by the American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association in its journal Real Estate Economics.
Volume (Year): 30 (2002)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Contact details of provider:
Postal: Indiana University, Kelley School of Business, 1309 East Tenth Street, Suite 738, Bloomington, Indiana 47405
Phone: (812) 855-7794
Fax: (812) 855-8679
Web page: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=1080-8620
More information through EDIRC
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Joseph T.L. Ooi & Kim-Hiang Liow, 2004. "Risk-Adjusted Performance of Real Estate Stocks: Evidence From Developing Markets," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 26(4), pages 371-396.
- Kim Liow & Zhiwei Chen & Jingran Liu, 2011. "Multiple Regimes and Volatility Transmission in Securitized Real Estate Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 295-328, April.
- Liow, Kim Hiang & Webb, James R., 2009. "Common factors in international securitized real estate markets," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 80-89, April.
- Gerlach, Richard & Wilson, Patrick & Zurbruegg, Ralf, 2006. "Structural breaks and diversification: The impact of the 1997 Asian financial crisis on the integration of Asia-Pacific real estate markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 974-991, October.
- Renee Fry & Vance L. Martin & Chrismin Tang, 2008. "A New Class Of Tests Of Contagion With Applications To Real Estate Markets," CAMA Working Papers 2008-01, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Kim Liow & Kim Ho & Muhammad Ibrahim & Ziwei Chen, 2009. "Correlation and Volatility Dynamics in International Real Estate Securities Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 39(2), pages 202-223, August.
- Hui, Eddie C.M. & Chen, Jia, 2012. "Investigating the change of causality in emerging property markets during the financial tsunami," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(15), pages 3951-3962.
- Barry, Christopher B. & Rodriguez, Mauricio, 2004. "Risk and return characteristics of property indices in emerging markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 131-159, June.
- Kim Liow, 2009. "Long-term Memory in Volatility: Some Evidence from International Securitized Real Estate Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 39(4), pages 415-438, November.
- Shaun Bond & Mardi Dungey & Renée Fry, 2006. "A Web Of Shocks: Crises Across Asian Real Estate Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 32(3), pages 253-274, May.
- Kim Liow & Muhammad Ibrahim, 2010. "Volatility Decomposition and Correlation in International Securitized Real Estate Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 40(2), pages 221-243, February.
- Kevin Chiang, 2009. "Discovering REIT Price Discovery: A New Data Setting," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 39(1), pages 74-91, July.
- Wen-Chieh Wu & Chin-Oh Chang & Zekiye Selvili, 2003. "Banking System, Real Estate Markets, and Nonperforming Loans," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 6(1), pages 43-62.
- Qin Xiao & Randolph Gee Kwang Tan, 2006. "Signal Extraction with Kalman Filter: A Study of the Hong Kong Property Price Bubbles," Economic Growth centre Working Paper Series 0601, Nanyang Technolgical University, School of Humanities and Social Sciences, Economic Growth centre.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing) or (Christopher F. Baum).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.