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Revealing Downturns

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  • Schmalz, Martin
  • Zhuk, Sergey

Abstract

When Bayesian risk-averse investors are uncertain about their assets' cash flows' exposure to systematic risk, stock prices react more to news in downturns than in upturns, implying higher volatility in downturns and negatively skewed returns. The reason is that, in good times, less desirable assets with low average cash flows and high loading on market risk perform similar to more desirable assets with high average cash flows and low market risk, rendering them difficult to distinguish. However, their relative fundamental performance diverges in downturns, enabling better inference. Consistent with these predictions, stocks' reaction to earnings news is up to 70% stronger in downturns than in upturns.

Suggested Citation

  • Schmalz, Martin & Zhuk, Sergey, 2018. "Revealing Downturns," CEPR Discussion Papers 12597, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12597
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    Cited by:

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    2. Hirshleifer, David & Sheng, Jinfei, 2022. "Macro news and micro news: Complements or substitutes?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(3), pages 1006-1024.
    3. Wang, Bo, 2022. "Ambiguity aversion and amplification of financial crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    4. Eisele, Alexander & Nefedova, Tamara & Parise, Gianpaolo & Peijnenburg, Kim, 2020. "Trading out of sight: An analysis of cross-trading in mutual fund families," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(2), pages 359-378.
    5. Gorovyy, Sergiy & Kelly, Patrick J. & Kuzmina, Olga, 2021. "Does secrecy signal skill? Own-investor secrecy and hedge fund performance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    6. David A. Maslar & Matthew Serfling & Sarah Shaikh, 2021. "Economic Downturns and the Informativeness of Management Earnings Forecasts," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(4), pages 1481-1520, September.
    7. Zheng Sun & Ashley W. Wang & Lu Zheng, 2016. "Only Winners in Tough Times Repeat: Hedge Fund Performance Persistence over Different Market Conditions," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2016-030, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Earnings response; Business cycle; Asymmetry; Bayesian learning;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G00 - Financial Economics - - General - - - General
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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