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When Good News Is Not So Good: Economy-wide Uncertainty and Stock Returns

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  • Hae mi Choi

Abstract

This paper shows that variation in economy-wide uncertainty causes asymmetric stock price responses to firm earnings surprises. The uncertainty that attends bad earnings news that arrives during expansions with greater economy-wide uncertainty occasions larger price declines. This is because news inconsistent with investors’ prior beliefs about the state of the economy increases uncertainty, which amplifies the negative cash flow effects contained in bad earnings news. Asymmetrically, the positive cash flow effect of good earnings news that arrives during recessions is offset by increased investor uncertainty, which results in relatively smaller price reactions to the good news. This is consistent with Veronesi's rational expectations equilibrium model, which shows that investors demand higher expected returns in the face of greater uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Hae mi Choi, 2014. "When Good News Is Not So Good: Economy-wide Uncertainty and Stock Returns," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(9-10), pages 1101-1123, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jbfnac:v:41:y:2014:i:9-10:p:1101-1123
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    2. James Ming Chen, 2017. "Systematic Risk in the Macrocosm," Quantitative Perspectives on Behavioral Economics and Finance, in: Econophysics and Capital Asset Pricing, chapter 0, pages 239-274, Palgrave Macmillan.
    3. James Ming Chen, 2017. "Econophysics and Capital Asset Pricing," Quantitative Perspectives on Behavioral Economics and Finance, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-3-319-63465-4, February.
    4. Milan Bouchet Valat & Paul Hubert & Mathilde Le Moigne & Yaovi Sélom Agbetonyo & Emmanuelle Fromont & Jean-Laurent Viviani & Antoine Parent & Mathilde Guergoat-Larivière & Séverine Lemière, 2018. "Varia," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/7l10qorvrv8, Sciences Po.
    5. Bergsma, Kelley & Tayal, Jitendra, 2020. "Quarterly earnings announcements and intra-industry information transfer from the Pacific to the Atlantic," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    6. Nawaf Almaskati & Ron Bird & Yue Lu & Danny Leung, 2019. "Corporate Governance, Information Uncertainty and Market Reaction to Information Signals," Working Papers in Economics 19/15, University of Waikato.

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