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Robust portfolio choice with derivative trading under stochastic volatility

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  • Escobar, Marcos
  • Ferrando, Sebastian
  • Rubtsov, Alexey

Abstract

We determine the optimal portfolio for an ambiguity averse investor who has access to stock and derivatives markets. The stock price follows a stochastic volatility jump-diffusion process and the investor can have different levels of uncertainty about the diffusion parts of the stock and its volatility. We find strong evidence that the optimal exposures to stock and volatility risks are significantly affected by the ambiguity aversion to the corresponding risk factor only. We also show that volatility ambiguity has a smaller impact in incomplete markets. Investors who ignore jump risk/model uncertainty/derivatives always incur welfare losses. In our numerical example, the loss from neglecting model uncertainty can be almost as much as the loss from not trading the derivatives.

Suggested Citation

  • Escobar, Marcos & Ferrando, Sebastian & Rubtsov, Alexey, 2015. "Robust portfolio choice with derivative trading under stochastic volatility," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 142-157.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:61:y:2015:i:c:p:142-157
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2015.08.033
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    4. Walter Mudzimbabwe, 2020. "A time consistent derivative strategy," International Journal of Financial Engineering (IJFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 7(01), pages 1-25, March.
    5. Castañeda, Pablo & Reus, Lorenzo, 2019. "Suboptimal investment behavior and welfare costs: A simulation based approach," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 170-180.
    6. Horst, Ulrich & Xia, Xiaonyu & Zhou, Chao, 2021. "Portfolio Liquidation under Factor Uncertainty," Rationality and Competition Discussion Paper Series 274, CRC TRR 190 Rationality and Competition.
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    9. Zeng, Yan & Li, Danping & Chen, Zheng & Yang, Zhou, 2018. "Ambiguity aversion and optimal derivative-based pension investment with stochastic income and volatility," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 70-103.
    10. Junhe Chen & Marcos Escobar-Anel, 2021. "Model uncertainty on commodity portfolios, the role of convenience yield," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 501-528, December.
    11. Zhou Yang & Jing Zhang & Chao Zhou, 2022. "Robust control problems of BSDEs coupled with value functions," Papers 2208.10735, arXiv.org.
    12. Balter, Anne G. & Mahayni, Antje & Schweizer, Nikolaus, 2021. "Time-consistency of optimal investment under smooth ambiguity," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 293(2), pages 643-657.
    13. Ben-Zhang Yang & Xiaoping Lu & Guiyuan Ma & Song-Ping Zhu, 2019. "Robust portfolio optimization with multi-factor stochastic volatility," Papers 1910.06872, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2020.
    14. Jun Deng & Huifeng Pan & Shuyu Zhang & Bin Zou, 2021. "Optimal Bitcoin trading with inverse futures," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 304(1), pages 139-163, September.
    15. Wei, Pengyu & Yang, Charles & Zhuang, Yi, 2023. "Robust consumption and portfolio choice with derivatives trading," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 304(2), pages 832-850.
    16. Wang, Pei & Li, Zhongfei, 2018. "Robust optimal investment strategy for an AAM of DC pension plans with stochastic interest rate and stochastic volatility," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 67-83.
    17. Feng Sun & Cheng Liu & Xiaoguang Zhou, 2017. "Analysis of industry risk premium with MVS three dimensions vector factor model," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 1374814-137, January.
    18. Ulrich Horst & Xiaonyu Xia & Chao Zhou, 2019. "Portfolio liquidation under factor uncertainty," Papers 1909.00748, arXiv.org.
    19. Marcos Escobar-Anel & Harold A. Moreno-Franco, 2019. "Dynamic portfolio strategies under a fully correlated jump-diffusion process," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 15(3), pages 421-453, September.
    20. Li, Danping & Shen, Yang & Zeng, Yan, 2018. "Dynamic derivative-based investment strategy for mean–variance asset–liability management with stochastic volatility," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 72-86.
    21. Escobar, Marcos & Ferrando, Sebastian & Rubtsov, Alexey, 2018. "Dynamic derivative strategies with stochastic interest rates and model uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 49-71.
    22. Hu, Duni & Chen, Shou & Wang, Hailong, 2018. "Robust reinsurance contracts with uncertainty about jump risk," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 266(3), pages 1175-1188.
    23. Wei Wang & Qianyan Li & Quan Li & Song Xu, 2023. "Robust Optimal Investment Strategies with Exchange Rate Risk and Default Risk," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-17, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Robust portfolio choice; Ambiguity; Stochastic volatility; Welfare loss;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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