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The Market for Crash Risk

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  • David S. Bates
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    Abstract

    This paper examines the equilibrium when negative stock market jumps (crashes) can occur, and investors have heterogeneous attitudes towards crash risk. The less crash-averse insure the more crash-averse through the options markets that dynamically complete the economy. The resulting equilibrium is compared with various option pricing anomalies reported in the literature: the tendency of stock index options to overpredict volatility and jump risk, the Jackwerth (2000) implicit pricing kernel puzzle, and the stochastic evolution of option prices. The specification of crash aversion is compatible with the static option pricing puzzles, while heterogeneity partially explains the dynamic puzzles. Heterogeneity also magnifies substantially the stock market impact of adverse news about fundamentals.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 8557.

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    Date of creation: Oct 2001
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    Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:8557

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    1. Yacine Ait-Sahalia & Andrew W. Lo, 2000. "Nonparametric Risk Management and Implied Risk Aversion," NBER Working Papers 6130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Bates, David S, 1991. " The Crash of '87: Was It Expected? The Evidence from Options Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(3), pages 1009-44, July.
    3. Merton, Robert C, 1973. "An Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(5), pages 867-87, September.
    4. Grossman, Sanford J & Zhou, Zhongquan, 1996. " Equilibrium Analysis of Portfolio Insurance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(4), pages 1379-1403, September.
    5. Jens Carsten Jackwerth, 1998. "Recovering Risk Aversion from Option Prices and Realized Returns," Finance 9803002, EconWPA.
    6. Basak, Suleyman & Cuoco, Domenico, 1998. "An Equilibrium Model with Restricted Stock Market Participation," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 11(2), pages 309-41.
    7. Jiang, Wang, 1996. "The term structure of interest rates in a pure exchange economy with heterogeneous investors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 75-110, May.
    8. Viceira, Luis & Campbell, John, 1999. "Consumption and Portfolio Decisions When Expected Returns are Time Varying," Scholarly Articles 3163266, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    9. Christensen, B. J. & Prabhala, N. R., 1998. "The relation between implied and realized volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 125-150, November.
    10. Rosenberg, Joshua V. & Engle, Robert F., 2002. "Empirical pricing kernels," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(3), pages 341-372, June.
    11. George Chacko & Luis M. Viceira, 2005. "Dynamic Consumption and Portfolio Choice with Stochastic Volatility in Incomplete Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(4), pages 1369-1402.
    12. Yeung Lewis Chan & Leonid Kogan, 2001. "Catching Up with the Joneses: Heterogeneous Preferences and the Dynamics of Asset Prices," NBER Working Papers 8607, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Bates, David S., 2000. "Post-'87 crash fears in the S&P 500 futures option market," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1-2), pages 181-238.
    14. Ho, Mun S & Perraudin, William R M & Sorensen, Bent E, 1996. "A Continuous-Time Arbitrage-Pricing Model with Stochastic Volatility and Jumps," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 14(1), pages 31-43, January.
    15. Jorion, Philippe, 1995. " Predicting Volatility in the Foreign Exchange Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(2), pages 507-28, June.
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    Cited by:
    1. Santa-Clara, Pedro & Saretto, Alessio, 2009. "Option strategies: Good deals and margin calls," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 391-417, August.
    2. John M. Maheu & Thomas H. McCurdy, 2004. "News Arrival, Jump Dynamics, and Volatility Components for Individual Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(2), pages 755-793, 04.
    3. Jens Carsten Jackwerth & George M. Constantinaides & Stylianos Perrakis, 2005. "Option Pricing: Real and Risk-Neutral Distributions," CoFE Discussion Paper 05-06, Center of Finance and Econometrics, University of Konstanz.
    4. Beliaeva, Natalia & Nawalkha, Sanjay, 2012. "Pricing American interest rate options under the jump-extended constant-elasticity-of-variance short rate models," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 151-163.
    5. Andrew Ang & Robert J. Hodrick & Yuhang Xing & Xiaoyan Zhang, 2004. "The Cross-Section of Volatility and Expected Returns," NBER Working Papers 10852, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Beber, Alessandro & Breedon, Francis & Buraschi, Andrea, 2010. "Differences in beliefs and currency risk premiums," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(3), pages 415-438, December.
    7. Liuren Wu, 2006. "Dampened Power Law: Reconciling the Tail Behavior of Financial Security Returns," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(3), pages 1445-1474, May.
    8. Dieckmann, Stephan & Gallmeyer, Michael, 2005. "The equilibrium allocation of diffusive and jump risks with heterogeneous agents," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(9), pages 1547-1576, September.
    9. René Garcia & Eric Ghysels & Éric Renault, 2004. "The Econometrics of Option Pricing," CIRANO Working Papers 2004s-04, CIRANO.
    10. Luca Benzoni & Pierre Collin-Dufresne & Robert S. Goldstein, 2005. "Can Standard Preferences Explain the Prices of out of the Money S&P 500 Put Options," NBER Working Papers 11861, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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