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Can standard preferences explain the prices of out-of-the-money S&P 500 put options?

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The 1987 stock market crash occurred with minimal impact on observable economic variables (e.g., consumption), yet dramatically and permanently changed the shape of the implied volatility curve for equity index options. Here, we propose a general equilibrium model that captures many salient features of the U.S. equity and options markets before, during, and after the crash. The representative agent is endowed with Epstein-Zin preferences and the aggregate dividend and consumption processes are driven by a persistent stochastic growth variable that can jump. In reaction to a market crash, the agent updates her beliefs about the distribution of the jump component. We identify a realistic calibration of the model that matches the prices of shortmaturity at-the-money and deep out-of-the-money S&P 500 put options, as well as the prices of individual stock options. Further, the model generates a steep shift in the implied volatility ?smirk? for S&P 500 options after the 1987 crash. This ?regime shift? occurs in spite of a minimal impact on observable macroeconomic fundamentals. Finally, the model?s implications are consistent with the empirical properties of dividends, the equity premium, as well as the level and standard deviation of the risk-free rate. Overall, our findings show that it is possible to reconcile the stylized properties of the equity and option markets in the framework of rational expectations, consistent with the notion that these two markets are integrated.

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  • Luca Benzoni & Pierre Collin-Dufresne & Robert S. Goldstein, 2011. "Can standard preferences explain the prices of out-of-the-money S&P 500 put options?," Working Paper Series WP-2011-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedhwp:wp-2011-11
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    Cited by:

    1. David Backus & Mikhail Chernov & Ian Martin, 2011. "Disasters Implied by Equity Index Options," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 66(6), pages 1969-2012, December.
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    3. Santa-Clara, Pedro & Saretto, Alessio, 2009. "Option strategies: Good deals and margin calls," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 391-417, August.
    4. Christoffersen, Peter & Heston, Steven & Jacobs, Kris, 2010. "Option Anomalies and the Pricing Kernel," Working Papers 11-17, University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School, Weiss Center.
    5. Shi, Zhan, 2019. "Time-varying ambiguity, credit spreads, and the levered equity premium," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(3), pages 617-646.
    6. Mark Broadie & Mikhail Chernov & Michael Johannes, 2009. "Understanding Index Option Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(11), pages 4493-4529, November.
    7. Alfredo Ibáñez, 2008. "The cross-section of average delta-hedge option returns under stochastic volatility," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 11(3), pages 205-244, October.
    8. Bjørn Eraker & Ivan Shaliastovich, 2008. "An Equilibrium Guide To Designing Affine Pricing Models," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(4), pages 519-543, October.
    9. Kraft, Holger & Seiferling, Thomas & Seifried, Frank Thomas, 2016. "Optimal consumption and investment with Epstein-Zin recursive utility," SAFE Working Paper Series 52, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE, revised 2016.
    10. Maria Grith & Wolfgang K. Härdle & Volker Krätschmer, 2017. "Reference-Dependent Preferences and the Empirical Pricing Kernel Puzzle," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 21(1), pages 269-298.
    11. Alexander David & Pietro Veronesi, 2011. "Investors' and Central Bank's Uncertainty Embedded in Index Options," NBER Working Papers 16764, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Constantinides, George M. & Jackwerth, Jens Carsten & Perrakis, Stylianos, 2005. "Option pricing: Real and risk-neutral distributions," CoFE Discussion Papers 05/06, University of Konstanz, Center of Finance and Econometrics (CoFE).
    13. Bjørn Eraker, 2008. "Affine General Equilibrium Models," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 54(12), pages 2068-2080, December.
    14. Xingguo Luo & Doojin Ryu & Libin Tao & Chuxin Ye, 2024. "Price monotonicity violations during stock market crashes: Evidence from the SSE 50 ETF options market," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 44(3), pages 533-554, March.
    15. Shaliastovich, Ivan, 2015. "Learning, confidence, and option prices," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 187(1), pages 18-42.
    16. Yu Chen & Thomas Cosimano & Alex Himonas & Peter Kelly, 2014. "An Analytic Approach for Stochastic Differential Utility for Endowment and Production Economies," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 44(4), pages 397-443, December.
    17. Maria Grith & Wolfgang Karl Härdle & Volker Krätschmer, 2013. "Reference Dependent Preferences and the EPK Puzzle," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2013-023, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
    18. Holger Kraft & Frank Seifried & Mogens Steffensen, 2013. "Consumption-portfolio optimization with recursive utility in incomplete markets," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 161-196, January.

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    Keywords

    Money; Macroeconomics; Pricing;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • P51 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Comparative Economic Systems - - - Comparative Analysis of Economic Systems

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