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Empirical Estimation of the Cost of Equity: An Application to Selected Brazilian Utilities Companies

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  • Marcelo Bianconi
  • Joe A. Yoshino

Abstract

We provide an extensive set of alternative models for the estimation of the real cost of equity in a sample of utitlites firms in Brazil with monthly data from March 2006 to June 2011.The main results are that the traditional CAPM is regected and, together with the Fama-French factors, give a poor fit, low beta and low predicted real return on equity. Additional factors improve the fit of the modesl and the estimated betas and real cost of equity increase relative to the traditional CAPM and Fama-French. Accounting for conditional heteroskedasticity shows that autocorrelation of variances is more important than news effects. The inclusion of higher order terms shows that the third order term is mostly significant and positive indicating preference for skewness in this sample period. Our estimates of betas and the implied predicted real cost of equity show that, across the best models, betas are significantly below unity in the range 0.26-0.73. The predicted real cost of equity, across the best models, for Brazil in this sector and smaple period averages 11% per year and is in the range of 8.7% to 13.2% per year.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Economics, Tufts University in its series Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University with number 0765.

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Date of creation: 2012
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Handle: RePEc:tuf:tuftec:0765

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Keywords: Asset pricing; multifactor model; CAPM; emerging markets.;

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  1. Marcelo Bianconi & Joe A. Yoshino & Mariana O. Machado de Sousa, 2011. "BRIC and the U.S. Financial Crisis: An Empirical Investigation of Stocks and Bonds Markets," Discussion Papers Series, Department of Economics, Tufts University 0764, Department of Economics, Tufts University.
  2. Alexander, Ian & Estache, Antonio & Oliveri, Adele, 1999. "A few things transport regulators should know about risk and the cost of capital," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2151, The World Bank.
  3. Joe Akira Yoshino, 2003. "Market Risk and Volatility in the Brazilian Stock Market," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 0, pages 385-403, November.
  4. M Hashem Pesaran & Takashi Yamagata, 2012. "Testing CAPM with a Large Number of Assets," Discussion Papers 12/05, Department of Economics, University of York.
  5. Campbell, John, 2008. "Estimating the Equity Premium," Scholarly Articles 3196339, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  6. Eugene F. Fama & Kenneth R. French, 2004. "The Capital Asset Pricing Model: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(3), pages 25-46, Summer.
  7. Bianconi, Marcelo & Yoshino, Joe A., 2012. "Firm Market Performance and Volatility in a National Real Estate Sector," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 230-253.
  8. Lee, Charles & Ng, David & Swaminathan, Bhaskaran, 2009. "Testing International Asset Pricing Models Using Implied Costs of Capital," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(02), pages 307-335, April.
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