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The risk-return tradeoff: A COGARCH analysis of Merton's hypothesis


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  • Müller, Gernot
  • Durand, Robert B.
  • Maller, Ross A.
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    We analysed daily returns of the CRSP value weighted and equally weighted indices over 1953-2007 in order to test for Merton's theorised relationship between risk and return. Like some previous studies we used a GARCH stochastic volatility approach, employing not only traditional discrete time GARCH models but also using a COGARCH -- a newly developed continuous-time GARCH model which allows for a rigorous analysis of unequally spaced data. When a risk-return relationship symmetric to positive or negative returns is postulated, a significant risk premium of the order of 7-8% p.a., consistent with previously published estimates, is obtained. When the model includes an asymmetry effect, the estimated risk premium, still around 7% p.a., becomes insignificant. These results are robust to the use of a value weighted or equally weighted index. The COGARCH model properly allows for unequally spaced time series data. As a sidelight, the model estimates that, during the period from 1953 to 2007, the weekend is equivalent, in volatility terms, to about 0.3-0.5 regular trading days.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Empirical Finance.

    Volume (Year): 18 (2011)
    Issue (Month): 2 (March)
    Pages: 306-320

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:18:y:2011:i:2:p:306-320

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    Keywords: Continuous-time GARCH modelling Market risk Pseudo-maximum likelihood Risk free rate Risk premium Stochastic volatility;


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    Cited by:
    1. Esben Hedegaard & Robert J. Hodrick, 2014. "Measuring the Risk-Return Tradeoff with Time-Varying Conditional Covariances," NBER Working Papers 20245, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Wang, Jianxin & Yang, Minxian, 2013. "On the risk return relationship," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 132-141.


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