This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Views of Financial Economists on the Equity Premium and on Professional Controversies

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Ivo Welch () (International Center for Finance)

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

The consensus of 226 academic financial economists forecasts an arithmetic equity premium of 7% per year over 10 and 30 year horizons; and 6% to 7% over 1 and 5 year horizons. Pessimistic and optimistic 30-year scenario forecasts average 2% and 13%. Respondents claim to revise their forecast downward when the stock market rises. They perceive the profession's consensus to be higher than it really is and are influenced by this perception. There is agreement that markets are efficient and lack arbitrage opportunities, and that government intervention in financial markets is detrimental.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help file. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=171272
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by Yale School of Management in its series Yale School of Management Working Papers with number ysm122.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML, plain text, BibTeX, RIS (EndNote), ReDIF
Length:
Date of creation: 27 Apr 2000
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ysm:somwrk:ysm122

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://mba.yale.edu/
More information through EDIRC

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: ().

Related research
Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Yacine Aït-Sahalia & Michael W. Brandt, 2008. "Consumption and Portfolio Choice with Option-Implied State Prices," NBER Working Papers 13854, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Joe Tak-Yun Wong & Eddie Hui & William Seabrooke & John Raftery, 2005. "A study of the Hong Kong property market: housing price expectations," Construction Management & Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 23(7), pages 757-765, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Louis K.C. Chan & Jason Karceski & Josef Lakonishok, 2001. "The Level and Persistence of Growth Rates," NBER Working Papers 8282, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Stotz, Olaf & L\"utje, Torben & Menkhoff, Lukas & von Nitzsch, R\"udiger, 2004. "Do Fund Managers Expect Mean Averting Returns?," Diskussionspapiere der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Universität Hannover dp-309, Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät. [Downloadable!]
  5. Richard Podpiera & Tomas Dvorak, 2005. "European Union Enlargement and Equity Markets in Accession Countries," IMF Working Papers 05/182, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Hans Dewachter & Kristien Smedts, 2007. "Limits to international arbitrage: an empirical evaluation," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(3), pages 273-285. [Downloadable!]
  7. M.J. Brennan, 2004. "How Did It Happen?," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management 1250, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA. [Downloadable!]
  8. Fernandez, Pablo, 2004. "Are calculated betas good for anything?," IESE Research Papers D/555, IESE Business School. [Downloadable!]
  9. Ivo Welch, 2001. "The Equity Premium Consensus Forecast Revisited," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1325, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
  10. Ravi Jagannathan & Ellen R. McGrattan & Anna Scherbina., 2000. "The declining U.S. equity premium," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall, pages 3-19. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Ilia D. Dichev, 2007. "What Are Stock Investors’ Actual Historical Returns? Evidence from Dollar-Weighted Returns," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(1), pages 386-401, March.
  12. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski, 2005. "Measuring and Interpreting Expectations of Equity Returns," NBER Working Papers 11313, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Rui Alpalhão & Paulo Alves, 2005. "The Portuguese equity risk premium: what we know and what we don’t know," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 15(7), pages 489-498, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Glaser, Markus & Langer, Thomas & Reynders, Jens & Weber, Martin, 2005. "Framing Effects in Stock Market Forecasts: The Difference Between Asking for Prices and Asking for Returns," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 05-40, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim & Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
  15. Jakob B. Madsen, 2003. "The Equity Risk Premium and the Required Share Returns in a Tobin’s q Model," EPRU Working Paper Series 03-10, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  16. Basak, Suleyman, 2004. "Asset Prices with Heterogenous Beliefs," CEPR Discussion Papers 4256, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Günther Gebhardt & Holger Daske, 2004. "Zukunftsorientierte Bestimmung von Kapitalkosten für die Unternehmensbewertung," Working Paper Series: Finance and Accounting 134, Department of Finance, Goethe University Frankfurt am Main. [Downloadable!]
  18. Marianna Brunetti & Costanza Torricelli, 2007. "The role of demographic variables in explaining financial returns in Italy," Heterogeneity and monetary policy 0701, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia Politica. [Downloadable!]
  19. Gene Amromin & Steven A. Sharpe, 2008. "Expectations of risk and return among household investors: Are their Sharpe ratios countercyclical?," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-17, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  20. Sanjai Bhagat & Roberta Romano, . "Event Studies and the Law--Part I: Technique and Corporate Litigation," Yale Law School John M. Olin Center for Studies in Law, Economics, and Public Policy Working Paper Series yale_lepp-1021, Yale Law School John M. Olin Center for Studies in Law, Economics, and Public Policy. [Downloadable!]
Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? IDEAS also indexes books.

This page was last updated on 2008-10-3.


This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.